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1.
—The seismicity in the territory of China, a seismotectonically complicated region, has been examined by using three complete samples of earthquakes which occurred during the last two centuries (1800–1995). The b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation was estimated by using this data sample. Taking into account the fact that the b value is spatially more stable than the a value, the b values were calculated at the nodes of a normal grid superposing on the entire area studied, and their distribution was examined. The results showed that the b value increases smoothly from 0.4 in inner-Mongolia to 0.8 in the east, south and southwest of China with higher values (b>0.8) in the Taiwan region. Furthermore, keeping fixed the obtained b values, the a value distribution was also examined. In order to display more detailed information about the seismicity, smaller cell surface (10,000 km2) for the calculation of the a values was chosen. The mean return periods for different cutoff magnitudes were also calculated for each of these small cells. It was observed that the mean return periods are the shortest ones in China, which are 10 and 50 years for the magnitude larger than or equal to 6.0 and 7.0, respectively.  相似文献   

2.
We introduce two new channeling indicators Dic and Dcc based on the Lagrangian distribution of flow rates. On the basis of the participation ratio, these indicators characterize the extremes of both the flow-tube width distribution and the flow rate variation along flow lines. The participation ratio is an indicator biased toward the larger values of a distribution and is equal to the normalized ratio of the square of the first-order moment to the second-order moment. Compared with other existing indicators, they advantageously provide additional information on the flow channel geometry, are consistently applicable to both porous and fractured media, and are generally less variable for media generated using the same parameters than other indicators. Based on their computation for a broad range of porous and fracture permeability fields, we show that they consistently characterize two different geometric properties of channels. Dic gives a characteristic scale of low-flow zones in porous media and a characteristic distance between effectively flowing structures in fractured cases. Dcc gives a characteristic scale of the extension of high-flow zones in porous media and a characteristic channel length in fractured media. Dic is mostly determined by channel density and permeability variability. Dcc is, however, more affected by the nature of the correlation structure like the presence of permeability channels or fractures in porous media and the length distribution in fracture networks.  相似文献   

3.
Time Distribution of Immediate Foreshocks Obtained by a Stacking Method   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
—We apply a stacking method to investigate the time distribution of foreshock activity immediately before a mainshock. The foreshocks are searched for events with M≥ 3.0 within a distance of 50 km and two days from each mainshock with M≥ 5.0, in the JMA catalog from 1977 through 1997/9/30. About 33% of M≥ 5.0 earthquakes are preceded by foreshocks, and 50–70% in some areas. The relative location and time of three types of representative foreshocks, that is, the largest one, the nearest one to the mainshock in distance, and the nearest one in time, are stacked in reference to each mainshock. The statistical test for stacked time distribution of foreshocks within 30km from and two days before mainshocks shows that the inverse power-law type of a probability density time function is a significantly better fit than the exponential one for all three types of representative foreshocks. Two explanations possibly interpret the results. One is that foreshocks occur as a result of a stress change in the region, and the other one is that a foreshock is the cause of a stress change in the region and it triggers a mainshock. The second explanation is compatible with the relationship between a mainshock and aftershocks, when an aftershock happens to become larger than the mainshock. However the values of exponent of the power law obtained for stacked foreshocks are significantly smaller than those for similarly stacked aftershocks. Therefore the foreshock–mainshock relation should not be explained as a normal aftershock activity. Probably an increase of stress during foreshock activity results in apparently smaller values of the exponent, if the second explanation is the case.  相似文献   

4.
利用首都圈强震台网比较密集的数字地震记录,研究2003年4月发生在唐山震区的2次4级地震。利用布设在四川、甘肃、陕西的强震台网和临时强震台网的资料,研究2008年7月和8月发生在四川汶川的2次6级地震。得到正断层和走向滑动断层、逆冲断层和走向滑动断层的地震近场PGA分布的差异。结果表明,这种差异是显著的。不仅大震的PGA近场分布复杂,中小地震也是如此。经频谱分析发现,这种影响出现差异的地震波频率较低,城市化的建筑向高层大型发展,其自振周期相应较长。近直立走向滑动地震的PGA高值区沿断层对称分布,而正断层和逆断层则集中在断层上盘,这对于破坏性地震应急救援中力量、物资的投入有借鉴意义。  相似文献   

5.
—The size distribution of earthquakes has been investigated since the early 20th century. In 1932 Wadati assumed a power-law distribution n(E) = kE ?w for earthquake energy E and estimated the w value to be 1.7 ～ 2.1. Since the introduction of the magnitude-frequency relation by Gutenberg and Richter in 1944 in the form of log n(M) = a?bM, the spatial or temporal variation (or stability) of b value has been a frequently discussed subject in seismicity studies. The log n(M) versus M plots for some data sets exhibit considerable deviation from a straight line. Many modifications of the G-R relation have been proposed to represent such character. The modified equations include the truncated G-R equation, two-range G-R equation, equations with various additional terms to the original G-R equation. The gamma distribution of seismic moments is equivalent to one of these equations.¶In this paper we examine which equation is the most suitable to magnitude data from Japan and the world using AIC. In some cases, the original G-R equation is the most suitable, however in some cases other equations fit far better. The AIC is also a powerful tool to test the significance of the difference in parameter values between two sets of magnitude data under the assumption that the magnitudes are distributed according to a specified equation. Even if there is no significant difference in b value between two data sets (the G-R relation is assumed), we may find a significant difference between the same data sets under the assumption of another relation. To represent a character of the size distribution, there are indexes other than parameters in the magnitude-frequency distribution. The η value is one of such numbers. Although it is certain that these indexes vary among different data sets and are usable to represent a certain feature of seismicity, the usefulness of these indexes in some practical problems such as foreshock discrimination has not yet been established.  相似文献   

6.
The determination of stratospheric particle microphysical properties from multiwavelength lidar, including Rayleigh and/or Raman detection, has been widely investigated. However, most lidar systems are uniwavelength operating at 532 nm. Although the information content of such lidar data is too limited to allow the retrieval of the full size distribution, the coupling of two or more uniwavelength lidar measurements probing the same moving air parcel may provide some meaningful size information. Within the ORACLE-O3 IPY project, the coordination of several ground-based lidars and the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) space-borne lidar is planned during measurement campaigns called MATCH-PSC (Polar Stratospheric Clouds). While probing the same moving air masses, the evolution of the measured backscatter coefficient (BC) should reflect the variation of particles microphysical properties. A sensitivity study of 532 nm lidar particle backscatter to variations of particles size distribution parameters is carried out. For simplicity, the particles are assumed to be spherical (liquid) particles and the size distribution is represented with a unimodal log-normal distribution. Each of the four microphysical parameters (i.e. log-normal size distribution parameters, refractive index) are analysed separately, while the three others are remained set to constant reference values. Overall, the BC behaviour is not affected by the initial values taken as references. The total concentration (N0) is the parameter to which BC is least sensitive, whereas it is most sensitive to the refractive index (m). A 2% variation of m induces a 15% variation of the lidar BC, while the uncertainty on the BC retrieval can also reach 15%. This result underlines the importance of having both an accurate lidar inversion method and a good knowledge of the temperature for size distribution retrieval techniques. The standard deviation (σ) is the second parameter to which BC is most sensitive to. Yet, the impact of m and σ on BC variations is limited by the realistic range of their variations. The mean radius (rm) of the size distribution is thus the key parameter for BC, as it can vary several-fold. BC is most sensitive to the presence of large particles. The sensitivity of BC to rm and σ variations increases when the initial size distributions are characterized by low rm and large σ. This makes lidar more suitable to detect particles growing on background aerosols than on volcanic aerosols.  相似文献   

7.
The correct identification of homogeneous areas in regional rainfall frequency analysis is fundamental to ensure the best selection of the probability distribution and the regional model which produce low bias and low root mean square error of quantiles estimation. In an attempt at rainfall spatial homogeneity, the paper explores a new approach that is based on meteo-climatic information. The results are verified ex-post using standard homogeneity tests applied to the annual maximum daily rainfall series. The first step of the proposed procedure selects two different types of homogeneous large regions: convective macro-regions, which contain high values of the Convective Available Potential Energy index, normally associated with convective rainfall events, and stratiform macro-regions, which are characterized by low values of the Q vector Divergence index, associated with dynamic instability and stratiform precipitation. These macro-regions are identified using Hot Spot Analysis to emphasize clusters of extreme values of the indexes. In the second step, inside each identified macro-region, homogeneous sub-regions are found using kriging interpolation on the mean direction of the Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux. To check the proposed procedure, two detailed examples of homogeneous sub-regions are examined.  相似文献   

8.
NMR relaxometry is a powerful tool for inferring porosity and permeability data. In practice, measured magnetization decay curves are inverted for relaxation time distributions. Subsequently, one presumes a linear relationship between the pore radius distribution and the T 1 and T 2 distribution, for longitudinal and transverse magnetization, respectively. The fundamental equations used are based on a pore model, in which pores are assumed to be isolated from each other with respect to the NMR process and have smooth walls. The present study is based on a geometrical pore space model with connected pores and structured pore walls. The physical processes of surface relaxation, irreversible dephasing of magnetic spins and diffusive proton exchange between pores, are described by a system of differential equations. The solution yields a set of exponential functions representing the relaxation time distribution. We describe the difference between the distributions obtained for diffusion coupling and for isolated pores. With diffusion coupling on, the spectral width of the T 1 distribution is strongly reduced, which indicates that the influence of large and small radii according to the T 1-pore radius relationship is mixed to some extent. For a fractal pore space structure, where large pores are surrounded by adjacent minor pores, the T 1 distribution does not resolve these substructures. Nevertheless, permeability values calculated from the logarithmic mean relaxation time T 1,LM are quite the same for diffusion coupling and for isolated pores. The T 2 distribution for diffusion coupling is little constricted and gives a better resolution of the pore wall structures than the corresponding T 1 distribution. The permeability values from T 2 distributions agree with the values from longitudinal magnetization, provided that we use a corrected relaxation time T 2,corr, accounting for the dependence of the surface relaxivity ρ 2 on pore radius. The study shows that radius distributions calculated from a T 1 and from a T 2 distribution differ from one another and both present an altered image of the true pore radius distribution. In practice, this has no serious influence on estimating permeability of medium- to high-permeability sandstones with the currently applied methods. The presented methodology of calculating the NMR response of pore space models with diffusion coupling may facilitate understanding porosity-permeability relationships of different rock types such as carbonate rocks with micro-porosity.  相似文献   

9.
Ultrasonic compressional wave velocity Vp and quality factor Qp have been measured in alkali basalt, olivine basalt and basic andesite melts in the frequency range of 3.4–22 MHz and in the temperature range of 1100–1400°C. Velocity and attenuation of the melts depend on frequency and temperature, showing that there are relaxation mechanisms in the melts. Complex moduli are calculated from the ultrasonic data. The results fit well a complex modulus of Arrhenius temperature dependence with log-normal Gaussian distribution in relaxation times of attenuation. The analysis yields average relaxation time, its activation energy, relaxed modulus, unrelaxed modulus and width of Gaussian distribution in relaxation times. Relaxed modulus is smaller (17.5 GPa) for basic andesite melt of high silica and high alumina contents than for the other two basalt melts (18.1–18.4 GPa). The most probable relaxation times decrease from ～ 3 × 10?10 s for basic andesite to ～ 10?11 s for alkali basalt at 1400°C. Activation energies of attenuation, ranging from 270 to 340 kJ mol?1 in the three melts, are highest in basic andesite. Longitudinal viscosity values and their temperature dependences are also calculated from Vp and Qp data. The volume viscosity values are estimated from the data using the shear viscosity values. Longitudinal, volume and shear viscosities and their activation energies are highest in the basic andesite melt of the most polymerized structure.  相似文献   

10.
《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(6):729-736
  相似文献   

11.
Grain-size distributions of suspended load over a sand-gravel bed at two different flow velocities were studied in a laboratory flume.The experiments had been performed to study the influence of flow velocity and suspension height on grain-size distribution in suspension over a sand-gravel bed.The experimental findings show that with an increase of flow velocity,the grain-size distribution of suspended load changed from a skewed form to a bimodal one at higher suspension heights.This study focuses on the determination of the parameter β_n which is the ratio of the sediment diffusion coefficient to the momentum diffusion coefficient of n th grain-size.A new relationship has been proposed involving β_n,the normalizing settling velocity of sediment particles and suspension height,which is applicable for widest range of normalizing settling velocity available in literature so far.A similar parameter β for calculating total suspension concentration is also developed.The classical Rouse equation is modified with β_n and β and used to compute grain-size distribution and total concentration in suspension,respectively.The computed values have shown good agreement with the measured values of experimental data.  相似文献   

12.
Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (Amax) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of Amax and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of Amax on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the Amax is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of Amax for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.  相似文献   

13.
Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M W =6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.  相似文献   

14.
The X17 solar flare occurred on October 28, 2003, and was followed by the X10 flare on October 29. These flares caused very strong geomagnetic storms (Halloween storms). The aim of the present study is to compare the variations in two main ionospheric parameters (foF2 and hmF2) at two chains of ionosondes located in Europe and North America for the period October 23–28, 2003. This interval began immediately before the storm of October 28 and includes its commencement. Another task of the work is to detect ionospheric precursors of the storm or substorm expansion phase. An analysis is based on SPIDR data. The main results are as follows. The positive peak of δfoF2 (where δ is the difference between disturbed and quiet values) is observed several hours before the magnetic storm or substorm commencement. This peak can serve as a disturbance precursor. The amplitude of δfoF2 values varies from 20 to 100% of the foF2 values. The elements of similarity in the variations in the δfoF2 values at two chains are as follows: (a) the above δfoF2 peak is as a rule observed simultaneously at two chains before the disturbance; (b) the δfoF2 variations are similar at all midlatitude (or, correspondingly, high-latitude) ionosondes of the chain. The differences in the δfoF2 values are as follows: (a) the effect of the main phase and the phase of strong storm recovery at one chain differs from such an effect at another chain; (b) the manifestation of disturbances at high-latitude stations of the chain differ from the manifestations at midlatitude stations. The δhmF2 variations are approximately opposite to the δfoF2 variations, and the δhmF2 values lie in the interval 15–25% of the hmF2 values. The performed study is useful and significant in studying the problems of the space weather, especially in a short-term prediction of ionospheric disturbances caused by magnetospheric storms or substorms.  相似文献   

15.
Most existing studies on the algal communities of acid lakes are based on environments that have been caused by anthropogenic disturbances. Such lakes have a different origin compared to the natural acidic lakes and could be expected to differ also in the mechanisms controlling phytoplankton and trophic status. Planktonic community in Lake Caviahue is somewhat diverse in spite of the low pH of the water. Algae have a distinctive vertical distribution: the values of phytoplankton biomass remain constant throughout the water column and at times were highest in the upper end of the hypolimnion, forming a maximum or a layer of chlorophyll a at depth. The goal of this work was to investigate the factors influencing the seasonal and vertical distribution of phytoplankton. The lake was sampled between the years 2004 and 2006. Physical, chemical and biological parameters at different depths throughout the water column were determined. The interrelationships between environmental variables at different sampling dates were analyzed using an integration of multivariate matrices, multiple factor analysis, to analyze any joint partnerships in the samples. We found that phytoplankton biomass is dominated by Keratococcus rhaphidioides. With regard to zooplankton, we found a single species of rotifers (Philodina sp.). The two arms of the lake and the depths have different behaviours showing differences in the arms' conductivity, dissolved oxygen and pH. The more superficial layers were characterized by high values of phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, organic and inorganic carbon, dissolved oxygen and pH. The deeper layers showed high values of chlorophyll a, ammonium and phosphorus (dissolved and particulate). From the multivariate analysis the relationships of the each algal species with pH, as a possible indicator of the degree of “acidophilia”, could be extracted.  相似文献   

16.
—A data set of earthquakes which occurred in the circum-Pacific regions has been used to compute the ω values. This parameter is obtained through Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values and is well known as upper bound magnitude. The results show relatively higher ω values in South America, Central America and Mexico, than in the western part of the circum-Pacific belt. The results are interpreted in terms of the different mechanical structure (heterogeneity) of the materials in the eastern and western parts of the examined area.  相似文献   

17.
The paper describes a permeameter test method for determination of the hydraulic conductivity(AT) along multi-directions in fluvial sediments with cross beddings.Unlike existing in-situ permeameter methods that determine hydraulic conductivity for submerged streambeds,our method was intended to measure hydraulic conductivity of exposed streambeds or fluvial sediments.The method was applied to the Wei River,Shaanxi Province,Central China for characterization of the anisotropy of K in a well-sorted fluvial sediment.The results illustrated that even in well-sorted sediments,cross-bedding and sediment fabrication(or texture) can lead to varied K values along different measurement directions.The K value was the largest along the dip direction(or the major direction) that is parallel to the orientation of cross bedding and the smallest in the direction perpendicular to the bedding(or the minor direction). The K value in a given direction between the major and minor direction often fell in the range bounded by the K values in the major and minor directions.The anisotropy ratio of K(the ratio of K value between the major and minor directions) in two trenches for this well-sorted fluvial sediment was up to 1.14 to 1.23,respectively.Our results also demonstrated that even for well-sorted sediments,the K values between two sampling points only about 10 cm apart can differ.It is clear that the K distribution strongly correlates to the bedding orientation.  相似文献   

18.
Following a brief overview of past applications of, and more recent advances on seismic microzonation, the results of a seismic microzonation study for the city of Chania, Greece, are presented. The study was based on Vs vs. depth profiles obtained at 19 sites of the urban area by performing SASW measurements. The spatial distribution of Vs values was utilized in estimating Vs30 values, depth to bedrock and the fundamental ground period variation across the area of the city as well as for conducting 1-D finite element non-linear inelastic site response analyses. The input earthquake excitations employed in the response analyses were based on the results of an available seismic hazard study for the Chania Area. The results of analyses were utilized for establishing the spatial distribution of rock motion amplification, the expected ground motions and spectral values in the area of the city. Contour maps providing values of the expected ground motion in the urban area are given which may become a practical tool in assessing the seismic risk and expected damage in the Chania area. The maps can also be used in the design of new earthquake resistant structures or the seismic retrofitting of existing ones. Finally, the results were utilized to demonstrate the inadequacy of using Vs,30 values for classifying the soil conditions in the Chania area.  相似文献   

19.
Hydrological models have been widely applied in flood forecasting, water resource management and other environmental sciences. Most hydrological models calibrate and validate parameters with available records. However, the first step of hydrological simulation is always to quantitatively and objectively split samples for use in calibration and validation. In this paper, we have proposed a framework to address this issue through a combination of a hierarchical scheme through trial and error method, for systematic testing of hydrological models, and hypothesis testing to check the statistical significance of goodness-of-fit indices. That is, the framework evaluates the performance of a hydrological model using sample splitting for calibration and validation, and assesses the statistical significance of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index (Ef), which is commonly used to assess the performance of hydrological models. The sample splitting scheme used is judged as acceptable if the Ef values exceed the threshold of hypothesis testing. According to the requirements of the hierarchical scheme for systematic testing of hydrological models, cross calibration and validation will help to increase the reliability of the splitting scheme, and reduce the effective range of sample sizes for both calibration and validation. It is illustrated that the threshold of Ef is dependent on the significance level, evaluation criteria (both regarded as the population), distribution type, and sample size. The performance rating of Ef is largely dependent on the evaluation criteria. Three types of distributions, which are based on an approximately standard normal distribution, a Chi square distribution, and a bootstrap method, are used to investigate their effects on the thresholds, with two commonly used significance levels. The highest threshold is from the bootstrap method, the middle one is from the approximately standard normal distribution, and the lowest is from the Chi square distribution. It was found that the smaller the sample size, the higher the threshold values are. Sample splitting was improved by providing more records. In addition, outliers with a large bias between the simulation and the observation can affect the sample values of Ef, and hence the output of the sample splitting scheme. Physical hydrology processes and the purpose of the model should be carefully considered when assessing outliers. The proposed framework in this paper cannot guarantee the best splitting scheme, but the results show the necessary conditions for splitting schemes to calibrate and validate hydrological models from a statistical point of view.  相似文献   

20.
We construct a single hazard function from multiple predictive parameters independently developed for moderate earthquakes in Kanto, Japan, during a learning period from 1990 to 1999, and applied to a testing period from 2000 to 2005. Here, we consider as predictive parameters the a and b values of the Gutenberg–Richter relation, the ν value (change in b value), and the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) model rate. To study the correlations among the parameters, we prepare two groups of space–time coordinate sets for assessment, namely the background and conditional groups selected from the learning period. The background group contains ten thousand sets of coordinates randomly selected from the space–time volume of our study. The conditional group contains 33 sets of space–time coordinates corresponding to the epicenters of the target earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) just before their times of occurrence. Each parameter for the background group is transformed so that its distribution conforms to the standard Normal function. The mean and variance of the conditional distribution is then estimated after applying the same transformation to the conditional group. Using the means and variances of b values, ν values and EEPAS rates and the correlation matrices in the background and conditional distributions, we construct a combined hazard function following the procedure developed for normally distributed parameters. The information gain per event (IGpe) of the new hazard function is 0.26 and 0.3 units larger than that of the EEPAS rate for the learning and testing period, respectively. The R-test confirms the statistical significance of the difference in the IGpe value for the testing period.  相似文献   

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