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1.
During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological
Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological
Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely
explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological
and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological
analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible,
within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require
a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users.
Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural
or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes
of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh
Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program
named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used.
The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how
sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability
for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving.
Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the
respective resource assessment methodologies. 相似文献
2.
Considering the important role played today by unconventional gas resources in North America and their enormous potential
for the future around the world, it is vital to both policy makers and industry that the volumes of these resources and the
impact of technology on these resources be assessed. To provide for optimal decision making regarding energy policy, research
funding, and resource development, it is necessary to reliably quantify the uncertainty in these resource assessments. Since
the 1970s, studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources have been conducted by various private and governmental
agencies, the most rigorous of which was by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS employed a cell-based, probabilistic
methodology which used analytical equations to calculate distributions of the resources assessed. USGS assessments have generally
produced distributions for potential unconventional gas resources that, in our judgment, are unrealistically narrow for what
are essentially undiscovered, untested resources. In this article, we present an improved methodology to assess potential
unconventional gas resources. Our methodology is a stochastic approach that includes Monte Carlo simulation and correlation
between input variables. Application of the improved methodology to the Uinta–Piceance province of Utah and Colorado with
USGS data validates the means and standard deviations of resource distributions produced by the USGS methodology, but reveals
that these distributions are not right skewed, as expected for a natural resource. Our investigation indicates that the unrealistic
shape and width of the gas resource distributions are caused by the use of narrow triangular input parameter distributions.
The stochastic methodology proposed here is more versatile and robust than the USGS analytic methodology. Adoption of the
methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input distributions, should allow a more realistic assessment
of the uncertainty surrounding potential unconventional gas resources. 相似文献
3.
Geologic resource assessments describe the location, general characteristics, and estimated volumes of resources, whether in situ or technically recoverable. Such compilations are only an initial step in economic resource evaluation. This paper identifies, by examples from the Illinois and Appalachian basins, the salient features of a geologic assessment that assure its usefulness to downstream economic analysis. Assessments should be in sufficient detail to allocate resources to production units (mines or wells). Coal assessments should include the spatial distribution of coal bed characteristics and the ability to allocate parts of the resource to specific mining technologies. For coal bed gas assessment, the production well recoveries and well deliverability characteristics must be preserved and the risk structure should be specified so dryholes and noncommercial well costs are recovered by commercially successful wells. 相似文献
4.
Considerations of mineral resource availability and depletion form part of a diverse array of sustainable development-oriented studies, across domains such as resource criticality, life cycle assessment and material flow analysis. Given the multidisciplinary nature of these studies, it is important that a common understanding of the complexity and nuances of mineral supply chains be developed. In this paper, we provide a brief overview of these assessment approaches and expand on several areas that are conceptually difficult to account for in these studies. These include the dynamic nature of relationships between reserves, resources, cut-off grades and ore grades; the ability to account for local economic, social and environmental factors when performing global assessments; and the role that technology improvements play in increasing the availability of economically extractable mineral resources. Advancing knowledge in these areas may further enhance the sophistication and interpretation of studies that assess mineral resource depletion or availability. 相似文献
5.
The problems related to mapping and comprehensive assessment of natural resources in Perm Krai from the perspective of their
rational management are considered. A technique of territorial regionalization is described from the viewpoint of the magnitude
of resource potential at three scale levels: human settlements, municipal districts, and administrative okrugs. Some optimization
techniques for the procedure of recomputing and mapping the results obtained are proposed. 相似文献
6.
东北温带旱作农业主要作物生产潜力及资源利用效率评价——以黑龙江海伦市为例 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
将作物生产潜力模型(PS123模型)与常规方法相结合,对1999~2001年海伦市玉米、大豆、小麦作物生产潜力进行计算;选取产量损失量、资源满足率和资源组合利用率,定量评价资源利用效率,寻找影响资源集约高效利用的限制性因子及其定量制约程度。结果显示,自然资源中温度对于产量的限制最大,其次为水分和土壤,如果把光温生产潜力作为目标产量,玉米、大豆、小麦的光温生产潜力分别为11998、7068、8813 kg/hm2,资源利用率分别为51.0%、29.0%、20.2%,海伦市粮食生产仍有较大潜力。在特定自然资源状况下,海伦市的社会经济状况是限制潜力实现的重要因素,在实地调查基础上,本文提出了提高该市作物产量的主要措施。 相似文献
7.
以陕西省9个流域为评价单元,基于宏观指标和综合指标构建水资源承载力综合评价模型。通过分析经济压力、人口压力、承载压力及协调指数,进而对研究区水资源承载力进行评价并探讨其时空分布特征。结果表明：（1） 陕西各流域水资源承载力差异较为明显,其中陕南最大,陕北次之,汉中最小。陕南地区的汉江和嘉陵江两个流域水资源丰富且降水充足, WI<0.6处于承载适宜阶段,但该流域水资源利用效率较低HI<0.6,流域人均用水量、万元GDP用水量以及农田灌溉亩均用水量均超过全省平均水平。陕北地区的河口—龙门、内流区以及北洛河三个流域水资源紧缺且存在水质性缺水问题,处于轻度超载阶段;而关中地区的渭河、泾河、龙门三门峡及伊洛河四个流域水资源供需矛盾随着人口与经济的增长进一步加剧,水资源承载力综合评价指标值WI >1.5,处于严重超载阶段。（2） 从承载压力指数分析可以看出,流域调水对缺水地区或经济中心城市的发展起到决定性作用。从丰水流域跨流域调水能解决地区性缺水问题,进而解决水资源危机所带来的社会经济可持续发展问题。(3) 基于水资源的自然资源属性,以流域为评价单元,其研究结果更符合自然规律,有利于实现流域间水资源的合理均衡和分配。 相似文献
8.
As managers and researchers of protected natural areas continue to seek balance in promoting visitor use but limiting negative experiential and natural resource impacts, the integration of social and physical spatial data may play a critical role in understanding how visitors and the community interface with the landscape within these protected areas. These spatial considerations are important for inventorying, monitoring, and managing the conditions of natural resources within parks. Specifically related to the visitor impacts of natural resources in parks are the use and condition of multiple-use trails. Technology such as GPS and GIS may allow for a unique assessment of the relationship between factors that influence this resource. This paper focuses on how visitor use distribution (measured through GPS tracking), activity type, and trail design influence the impacts to trail conditions. This paper also addresses statistical concerns related to spatial dependency. Results suggest that failure to account for spatial dependency can lead to erroneous Type I findings. Additionally, activity type (specifically horseback riders) and trail design were found to best predict trail impacts when controlling for spatial dependency. 相似文献
9.
自然资源研究的热力学思考 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从热力学角度出发，将自然资源划分为平衡结构性和耗散结构性自然资源两大类型，从不同时间尺度讨论了自然资源系统的时间之矢，在人类活动干预下的自然资源弛豫过程，自然资源系统状态的热力学描述及评价问题。最后在上述分析的基础上，就自然资源开发战略问题提出了４点建议。 相似文献
10.
东北地区资源型城市经济结构转型研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
东北地区是以耗竭大量自然资源为代价的外延型经济发展典型地区。经过近百年来的开发．区域资源趋于枯竭．资源型城市发展面临着一系列矛盾和问题。东北地区资源型城市问题和矛盾是长期积累形成的．有着特定的时代背景和体制原因。本文分析了东北资源型城市所面临的问题．阐明了其经济衰退的机制和问题的成因．提出了今后东北资源型城市发展的四种模式——综合性发展模式、主导产业转型模式、培育接续产业模式、资源带动发展模式,论述了资源型城市实现经济结构转型和可持续发展所必须破解的三大难题——产业结构调整、劳动力就业、生态环境整治．并提出相应的对策和建议。 相似文献