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1.
基于不同再分析资料的全球蒸发量时空变化特征分析   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
基于目前使用较为广泛的8套再分析资料,研究了全球蒸发量的时空变化特征,同时对比分析了各套资料的异同点,研究结果表明:各套资料全球蒸发量的空间分布型基本一致,均具有明显的海陆、经向分布差异,并且同纬度陆地上高海拔地区蒸发量小于低海拔地区.各套资料蒸发量的时间变化形势不尽相同,其中MERRA,ERA-Interim,NCEP-R1和NCEP-R2等资料全球平均蒸发量的逐年变化基本一致,而CFSR与ERA-40资料更为接近;各套资料陆地平均蒸发量的逐年变化差异较大,其中MERRA,CFSR和NCEP-R2资料比较相似,而海洋平均蒸发量的变化形势具有较高的一致性,说明再分析资料对海洋蒸发量时空演变特征的再现能力更强.整体而言,MERRA与NCEP-R2资料能够同时较好地反映出全球蒸发量的时空变化特征,具有很好的代表性;此外,CFSR与ERA-40资料也可以较好地刻画出陆地蒸发量的变化特点,而ERA-Interim,NCEP-R1,OAFlux和HOAPS等资料比较适用于对海洋蒸发量的研究.各套资料陆地与海洋平均蒸发量在1958~1978年基本都呈现显著的线性减少趋势,而在1979~2011年时间段内大多是线性增加的,其中海洋地区更加显著.全球蒸发量也同时存在比较显著的年循环特征,尤其是北半球低纬度地区,而且陆地蒸发量逐月变化幅度要高于海洋.  相似文献   

2.
基于再分析资料,分析和理解水汽的大时空尺度变化规律,是气候变化研究中的重要环节.但不同再分析资料间水汽变量的差异,会导致相关气候变化研究的不确定性.因此,本文对比研究了三种当前最新的第3代再分析资料,即ERA-Interim,MERRA和CFSR的多年(2000~2012年)全球大气柱水汽含量气候态分布的异同并分析了可能原因.研究结果表明,三种再分析水汽资料尽管在描述全球水汽的主要变化模态方面有很高的相似性,但在全球分布、时间序列及变化趋势等方面仍存在一定的差异.其中,洋面上三种数据的年际变化较为相似,而差异主要集中在赤道两侧辐合带和暖云区,这可能是源于不同模式暖云模拟和对流参数化方案的不同,以及水汽对卫星遥感数据同化的敏感性差异.总体而言,三者与卫星观测均较为一致.而陆地上的差异主要集中在非洲中部、南美洲亚马逊流域以及一些高原地区,其主要原因是由于模式对复杂下垫面处理的不同,以及相应区域探空等地基观测数据的缺乏.并且,三者都较探空实测数据明显偏低.本文研究结果将有助于理解再分析资料间的气候态差异特征,可为气候研究时水汽数据的选取提供参考依据.  相似文献   

3.
基于非线性误差信息熵理论,通过分析非线性误差信息熵和气候态信息熵随时间演变规律,引进了定量估计大气多变量系统可预报性的联合可预报期限和单变量可预报期限,该期限既适合度量气候态信息熵为常值的可预报性,也适合气候态信息熵随时间变化的情形.利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,计算了非线性误差信息熵和气候态信息熵随时间演变以及相应的可预报期限,并对冬季大气500 hPa温度场、纬向风场和经向风场的各单变量可预报性和三变量联合可预报性进行了分析.结果表明:对于单变量可预报性来说,温度场和纬向风场的可预报性相对较大,经向风场最小,它们的可预报期限具有纬向带状分布特征,尤其是经向风场,其可预报期限在纬向上明显存在3条低值带和4条高值带;对于多变量联合可预报性来说,由于各变量之间相互联系,多变量联合可预报期限不是单变量可预报期限的简单平均或线性组合,其可小于所有单变量的可预报性期限,也可介于各单变量可预报期限之间,且这个特征具有非常明显的区域差异,不同区域具有不同的结果.  相似文献   

4.
Ferrel环流之新解   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
由于Ferrel环流与中高纬度存在强盛的西风带这一现代大气观测手段所证实的事实相悖,对其是否存在,及其环流形态一直存在着很大的争议.本文利用1998~2003年的NCEP/NCAR(National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research, 美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心)再分析资料(10°×10°,经/纬度网格),根据北半球夏季(6~8月)太平洋地区(0°~60°N;160°E~120°W)的三维风场的基本特征,分析了北半球夏季太平洋地区平均经圈环流,特别是Ferrel环流的特征,发现Ferrel环流具有与已往研究不同的性质,并在此基础上提出了Ferrel环流新的概念模型,与过去的经典的环流概念模型相比能较好地描述高低空环流的基本特征,同时在考虑地球自转效应下,能够完满地解释中高纬度西风带的维持.  相似文献   

5.
利用美国国家环境预报中心和美国国家大气科学研究中 心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析月平均气候资料以及Xie和Arkin分析的月平均降水资料(1968~199 8年),针对索马里低空急流(SMJ)的年际变化及其对东亚夏季降水的影响问题展开了分析 研究. 结果揭示,SMJ作为最主要的越赤道气流,对两个半球间水汽输送起最关键的作用, 它把水汽从冬半球输送到夏半球. 夏季SMJ的年际变化有全球范围内的环流异常与之相联系 ,特别是东亚沿岸的波列状异常分布、南亚高压以及澳大利亚以南的偶极型异常分布;它 也同春季的北印度洋等海区的海温异常有密切关系. 研究还表明,春季SMJ的年际变化对东 亚夏季降水和大气环流有显著影响,由于SMJ影响的超前性,因此它在东亚夏季气候预测上 有重要意义.  相似文献   

6.
对流层延迟对导航定位精度有着重要的影响,而再分析资料提供的高精度气象参数计算的对流层延迟可应用于定位过程中以提升定位精度.本文针对三种再分析资料计算的对流层延迟进行精度评估,并将其应用在精密单点定位中,分析其对定位精度的影响.首先,利用2020年全球范围内125个IGS(International GNSS Service)站的对流层天顶总延迟(Zenith Total Delay, ZTD)作为真值对三种再分析资料(ERA5、MERRA2、CRA40)计算的ZTD进行了精度评估,并分析其时空分布特性.研究结果表明:ERA5-ZTD的均方根误差(RMS)最小(12.1 mm),其次为CRA40-ZTD(15.8 mm)和MERRA2-ZTD(16.9 mm),整体上ERA5-ZTD的精度最高;据所选的IGS站点的比较结果发现赤道平均偏差(BIAS)呈现负值,在中高纬度地区CRA40的精度优于MERRA2,在低纬度地区则相反,而ERA5在各纬度平均精度均为最优;当考虑季节因素时,三者计算的ZTD-RMS在夏秋季较大,其中ERA5的RMS季节变化最稳定.之后还利用180个探空站点对三者计算...  相似文献   

7.
本文利用ERA和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,以及部分观测资料,研究了东亚夏季风年代际变化的若干重要特征. 结果表明,东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代末减弱这一现象是普遍存在的,主要表现为江淮地区表面温度降低,海平面气压升高,出现偏北风异常. 研究发现,这次年代际变化还体现在与东亚季风环流密切相关的重要环流因子,如西太平洋副热带高压、欧亚西风、澳大利亚高压、南极涛动等,它们在20世纪70年代末以后都进入高指数时期. 此外,文章还揭示:ERA和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料在东亚夏季风年代际变化上基本吻合,但也有很多差别.  相似文献   

8.
对流层延迟是卫星导航定位的主要误差源,气象观测的数值预报资料可用来计算对流层延迟改正量.本文通过分布于亚洲地区的49个GPS台站一年的实测ZTD资料,对利用欧洲中尺度天气预报中心(ECMWF)分析资料、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料和NCEP预报资料,计算对流层天顶延迟(ZTD)改正的有效性和可能达到的精度进行了评估,分析了ECMWF和NCEP在亚洲地区的适用程度和其分辨率对计算ZTD精度的影响.研究结果表明:(1)相对于 GPS实测ZTD,用ECMWF资料计算ZTD的bias和rms分别为-1.0 cm 和2.7 cm,优于NCEP再分析资料,可用于高精度ZTD研究和应用;NCEP预报数据计算ZTD的bias和rms分别为2.4 cm 和 6.8 cm,足以满足广大GNSS实时导航定位用户对流层延迟改正的需要.(2)bias和rms呈现明显的季节性变化,总体上夏季大,冬季小;在空间分布上随着纬度的变化不明显,但随高度的增加rms总体上有递减趋势.另外还发现,亚洲东部地区夏季日平均bias和rms和南部热带地区冬季的日平均bias和rms变化相对较大.(3)ECMWF2.5°和0.5°的资料进行了对比分析,发现0.5°分辨率资料的rms比2.5°减小1~5 mm.这些结果,为在亚洲地区的空间大地测量、导航定位和INSAR等工作中,应用ECMWF/NCEP的资料进行对流层大气延迟改正的有效性和可能达到的精度提供了重要参考.  相似文献   

9.
基于1961-2016年国家气象信息中心整编的气象台站逐日降水以及NCAR/NCEP再分析等资料,对我国典型夏季风影响过渡区夏季降水的异常时空特征及成因进行分析,结果表明:典型夏季风影响过渡区夏季降水EOF展开第一模态呈全区一致性特征,而且该模态时间系数没有明显的长期变化趋势,第二模态呈西北和东南反位相变化特征.相关分析表明夏季中纬度西风带是影响典型夏季风影响过渡区夏季降水异常的最主要因子,高原夏季风为次要因子,东亚夏季风的影响较弱,而且东亚夏季风主要通过其子系统——西太平洋副热带高压的东西摆动来影响.此外在夏季中纬度西风偏弱年,高空急流位置偏南,急流轴在典型夏季风影响过渡区向东南方向发生了"倾斜",对应500 hPa呈异常的西北气流控制,同时由于高空急流在过渡区减弱,使得高层发生异常的气流辐合,低层辐散,通过高低层环流之间的质量和动量调整,垂直场表现为异常下沉运动,低层的辐散也减弱了西南暖湿气流的北上,水汽来源少,最终使得典型夏季风影响过渡区夏季降水偏少,反之亦然.这是夏季中纬度西风带影响典型夏季风影响过渡区夏季降水的可能机理.  相似文献   

10.
基于遗传算法优化的ENSO指数的动力预报模型反演   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
基于NCEP/NCAR提供的1958~1995年全球月平均海温距平场再分析资料,采用动力系统反演思想和遗传算法途径,进行了El Nino/La Nina指数的动力预报模型的参数优化和模型反演,从上述海温资料中重构了Nino3海温距平指数的非线性动力模型.模型预报试验结果表明,遗传算法具有的全局搜索和并行计算优势能够客观、有效地反演海温指数的动力预报模型,对Nino3海温指数和El Nino/La Nina事件进行较为客观准确的预测,为El Nino/La Nina预测提供有益的研究参考.  相似文献   

11.
The temporal consistency of the moisture fields (precipitation, evaporation and total precipitable water) from five global reanalyses is examined over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during 1989?C2009. This concern is important given that (1) global reanalyses are known to be prone to inhomogeneities and artificial trends caused by changes in the observing system, and (2) the period of study has seen a dramatic increase in the volume of satellite observations available for data assimilation. In particular, the study aims to determine whether the recent reanalyses are suitable for investigating changes in Antarctic surface mass balance. The datasets investigated consist of NCEP-2, JRA-25, ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR. Strong evidence of spurious changes is found in NCEP-2, JRA-25, MERRA and CFSR, although the magnitude, spatial patterns and timing of these artifacts vary between the reanalyses. MERRA exhibits a jump in Antarctic precipitation-minus-evaporation (P?CE) and in Southern Ocean precipitation in the late 1990s. This jump is related to the introduction of sounding radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). The impact of AMSU is also discernible, albeit less pronounced, in CFSR data. It is shown that ERA-Interim likely provides the most realistic depiction of the interannual variability and overall change in Antarctic P?CE since 1989. We conclude that the presence of spurious changes is not a solved problem in recent global reanalyses. Caution should continue to be exercised when using these datasets for trend analyses in general, particularly in high southern latitudes.  相似文献   

12.
The atmospheric reanalysis datasets have been widely used to understand the variability of atmospheric water vapor on various temporal and spatial scales for climate change research. The difference among a variety of reanalysis datasets, however, causes the uncertainty of corresponding results. In this study, the climatology of atmospheric column-integrated water vapor for the period from 2000 to 2012 was compared among three latest third-generation atmospheric reanalyses including European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), while possible explanation on the difference between them was given. The results show that there are significant differences among three datasets in the multi-year global distribution, variation of interannual cycle, long-term trend and so on, though high similarity for principal mode describing the variability of water vapor. Over oceans, the characteristics of long-term CWV variability are similar, whereas the main discrepancy among three datasets is located around the equatorial regions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the South Pacific Convergence Zone and warm cloud area, which is related with the difference between reanalysis models for the scheme of convective parameterization, the treatment of warm clouds, and the assimilation of satellite-based observations. Moreover, these CWV products are fairly consistent with observations (satellite-based retrievals) for oceans. On the other hand, there are systematic underestimations about 2.5 kg/m2 over lands for all three CWV datasets, compared with radiosonde observations. The difference between models to solve land-atmosphere interaction in complex environment, as well as the paucity in radiosonde observations, leads to significant water vapor gaps in the Amazon Basin of South America, central parts of Africa and some mountainous regions. These results would help better understand the climatology difference among various reanalysis datasets better, and more properly choose water vapor datasets for different research requirements.  相似文献   

13.
High-quality soil moisture (SM) datasets are in great demand for climate, hydrology, and other fields, but detailed evaluation of SM products from various sources is scarce. Thus, using 670 SM stations worldwide, we evaluated and compared SM products from microwave remote sensing [Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) (C- and X-bands) and European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI)], land surface model [Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)], and reanalysis data [ECMWF Re-Analysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)] under different time scales and various climates and land covers. We find that: (a) ESA CCI and GLDAS have the closest values to the in situ SM on the annual scale, whereas others overestimate the SM; ERA-Interim (averaged R = 0.58) and ESA CCI (averaged R = 0.54) correlate best with the in situ data, while GLDAS performs worst. (b) Overall, the deviations of each product vary in seasons. ESA CCI and ERA-Interim products are closer to the in situ SM at seasonal scales, and AMSR-E and NCEP perform worst in December–February and June–August, respectively. (c) Except for NCEP and ERA-Interim, others can well reflect the intermonthly variation of the in situ SM. (d) Under various climates and land covers, AMSR-E products are less effective in cold climates, whereas GLDAS and NCEP products perform poorly in arid or temperate and dry climates. Moreover, the Bias and R of each SM product differ obviously under different forest types, especially the AMSR-E products. In summary, SM from ESA CCI is the best, followed by ERA-Interim product, and precipitation is an important auxiliary data for selecting high-quality SM stations and improving the accuracy of SM from GLDAS. These results can provide a reference for improving the accuracy of the above SM products.  相似文献   

14.
Satellite‐based and reanalysis quantitative precipitation estimates are attractive for hydrologic prediction or forecasting and reliable water resources management, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates three widely used global high‐resolution precipitation products [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Climate Data Record (PERSIANN‐CDR), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 Version 7 (TRMM 3B42V7), and National Centers for Environment Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP‐CFSR)] against gauge observations with seven statistical indices over two humid regions in China. Furthermore, the study investigates whether the three precipitation products can be reliably utilized as inputs in Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi‐distributed hydrological model, to simulate streamflows. Results show that the precipitation estimates derived from TRMM 3B42V7 outperform the other two products with the smallest errors and bias, and highest correlation at monthly scale, which is followed by PERSIANN‐CDR and NCEP‐CFSR in this rank. However, the superiority of TRMM 3B42V7 in errors, bias, and correlations is not warranted at daily scale. PERSIANN‐CDR and 3B42V7 present encouraging potential for streamflow prediction at daily and monthly scale respectively over the two humid regions, whilst the performance of NCEP‐CFSR for hydrological applications varies from basin to basin. Simulations forced with 3B42V7 are the best among the three precipitation products in capturing daily measured streamflows, whilst PERSIANN‐CDR‐driven simulations underestimate high streamflows and high streamflow simulations driven by NCEP‐CFSR mostly are overestimated significantly. In terms of extreme events analysis, PERSIANN‐CDR often underestimates the extreme precipitation, so do extreme streamflow simulations forced with it. NCEP‐CFSR performs just the reverse, compared with PERSIANN‐CDR. The performance pattern of TRMM 3B42V7 on extremes is not certain, with coexisting underestimation and overestimation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
The spatial resolution of wind forcing fields is critical for modeling ocean surface waves. We analyze here the performance of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction system WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting) run with a 14-km resolution for hindcasting wind waves in the North Atlantic. The regional atmospheric model was run in the domain from 20° N to 70° N in the North Atlantic and was forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions in a spectral nudging mode. Here, we present the analysis of the impact of spectral nudging formulation (cutoff wavelengths and depth through which full weighting from reanalysis data is applied) onto the performance of the modeled 10-m wind speed and wind wave fields for 1 year (2010). For modeling waves, we use the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The sensitivity of the atmospheric and wave models to the spectral nudging formulation is investigated via the comparison with reanalysis and observational data. The results reveal strong and persistent agreement with reanalysis data during all seasons within the year with well-simulated annual cycle and regional patterns independently of the nudging parameters that were tested. Thus, the proposed formulation of the nudging provides a reliable framework for future long-term experiments aiming at hindcasting climate variability in the North Atlantic wave field. At the same time, dynamical downscaling allows for simulation of higher waves in coastal regions, specifically near the Greenland east coast likely due to a better representation of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in this area.  相似文献   

16.
Variability in the characteristics of depth-induced wave breakers along a non-uniform coastal topography and its impact on the morpho-sedimentary processes is examined at the island sheltered wave-dominated micro-tidal coast, Karwar, west coast of India. Waves are simulated using the coupled wind wave model, SWAN nested in WAVEWATCH III, forced by the reanalysis winds from different sources (NCEP/NCAR, ECMWF, and NCEP/CFSR). Impact of the wave breakers is evaluated through mean longshore current and sediment transport for various wave energy conditions across different coastal morphology. Study revealed that the NCEP/CFSR wind is comparatively reasonable in simulation of nearshore waves using the SWAN model nested by 2D wave spectra generated from WAVEWATCH III. The Galvin formula for estimating mean longshore current using the crest wave period and the Kamphuis approximation for longshore sediment transport is observed realistically at the sheltered coastal environment while the coast interacts with spilling and plunging breakers.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

This study aims to quantify the spatial distribution of errors in two climate reanalysis (ERA5 and CFSR) and two satellite (TMPA-RT and TMPA-V7) precipitation products over Bangladesh. The datasets are assessed against ground-based rain gauge observations to capture the extreme rainfall accumulations at daily temporal scale over a 5-year period (January 2010–December 2014). The bias ratio scores indicate that CFSR and TMPA-RT seriously overestimate the rainfall values over much of the study area. Whilst TMPA-V7 performs better than the other precipitation products, all datasets lose their detection skills substantially for higher quantile thresholds (i.e. above 50th and 75th percentiles). With respect to rainfall detection metrics – probability of detection (POD) and volumetric hit index (VHI) – both ERA5 and CFSR show superior performance (in the range 0.9–1.0 for all the analysis grid boxes). All rainfall datasets are equally good in terms of false alarm ratio (FAR) and volumetric FAR (VFAR), even though the lowest values are associated with ERA5 for higher quantiles. All products demonstrate a decrease in skill to capture the amount of rainfall but show satisfactory results to detect the rainfall events when using higher quantile thresholds (i.e. rainfall above the 50th and 75th percentiles) to sample the data before computing product skill.  相似文献   

18.
荆思佳  肖薇  王晶苑  郑有飞  王伟  刘强  张圳  胡诚 《湖泊科学》2022,34(5):1697-1711
湖泊蒸发对气候变化非常敏感, 是水文循环响应气候变化的指示因子, 因此研究湖泊蒸发的控制因素, 对于理解区域水文循环有重要意义. 本文利用太湖中尺度涡度通量网避风港站观测数据校正JRA-55再分析资料, 驱动CLM4.0-LISSS模型, 并利用2012—2017年涡度相关通量数据和湖表面温度数据检验模型模拟蒸发结果, 验证了该模型在太湖的适用性; 估算了1958—2017年间太湖的湖面蒸发量, 并利用Manner-Kendall趋势检验分析了湖面蒸发的变化趋势, 寻找太湖实际蒸发的年际变化的主控因子. 结果如下: 校正后的JRA-55再分析资料模拟的太湖蒸发与观测值之间存在季节偏差, 但是季节偏差在年尺度上相互抵消, 再分析资料可用于年际尺度太湖蒸发变化的模拟; 1958—2017年间太湖蒸发量以1977年为界, 先下降(-3.6 mm/a), 后增加(2.3 mm/a); 多元逐步回归结果表明, 向下的短波辐射是太湖1958—2017年间太湖蒸发变化的主控因子, 向下的长波辐射、气温、比湿也对湖泊蒸发年际变化有一定影响, 但是风速对蒸发量的年际变化影响不大.  相似文献   

19.
Correctly representing weather is critical to hydrological modelling, but scarce or poor quality observations can often compromise model accuracy. Reanalysis datasets may help to address this basic challenge. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset provides continuous, globally available records, and CFSR data have produced satisfactory hydrological model performance in some temperate and monsoonal locations. However, the use of CFSR for hydrological modelling in tropical and semi‐tropical basins has not been adequately evaluated. Taking advantage of exceptionally high rainfall station density in the catchments of the Rio Grande de Loiza above San Juan, Puerto Rico, we compared model performance based on CFSR records with that based on publicly available weather stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN, n = 21) and on a dataset of rainfall records maintained by the United States Geological Survey Caribbean Water Science Center (USGS, n = 24). For an implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with subbasins defined at 11 streamflow gages, uncalibrated measures of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were >0 at 8 of 11 gages using USGS precipitation data for daily simulations over the period 1998–2012, but were <0 using GHCN weather station records (8 of 11) and CFSR reanalysis data (9 of 11). Autocalibration of individual SWAT models for each of the 11 basins against each of the available weather datasets yielded NSE values > 0 using all precipitation inputs, including CFSR. However, the ground weather station closest to the geographic basin centre produced the highest NSE values in only 5 of 11 cases. The spatially interpolated CFSR data performed as well or better than single ground observations made further than 20–30 km, and sometimes better than individual weather stations <10 km from the basin centroid. In addition to demonstrating the need to evaluate available weather inputs, this research reinforces the value of CFSR data as a means to supplement ground records and consistently determine a baseline for hydrologic model performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Zhou  Hui  Liu  Xueqi  Xu  Peng 《Ocean Dynamics》2019,69(5):529-542
Ocean Dynamics - This study investigates the sensitivity of the Sverdrup transport to the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-Interim, CCMP, and QSCAT wind products over the tropical North Pacific Ocean during the...  相似文献   

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