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1.
The response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) to a persistent positive (or negative) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model forced with idealized atmospheric reanalysis fields. The integrations are analyzed with reference to a base-line integration for which the model is forced with idealized fields representing a neutral state of the NAO. In the positive NAO case, the results suggest that the well-known cooling and strengthening of the SPG are, after about 10 years, replaced by a warming and subsequent weakening of the SPG. The latter changes are caused by the advection of warm water from the subtropical gyre (STG) region, driven by a spin-up of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the effect of an anomalous wind stress curl in the northeastern North Atlantic, which counteracts the local buoyancy forcing of the SPG. In the negative NAO case, however, the SPG response does not involve a sign reversal, but rather shows a gradual weakening throughout the integration. The asymmetric SPG-response to the sign of persistent NAO-like forcing and the different time scales involved demonstrate strong non-linearity in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation response to atmospheric forcing. The latter finding indicates that analysis based on the arithmetic difference between the two NAO-states, e.g. NAO+ minus NAO?, may hide important aspects of the ocean response to atmospheric forcing.  相似文献   

2.
Interactions between the tropical and subtropical northern Pacific at decadal time scales are examined using uncoupled oceanic and atmospheric simulations. An atmospheric model is forced with observed Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) decadal anomalies, computed as the difference between the 2000–2009 and the 1990–1999 period. The resulting pattern has negative SST anomalies at the equator, with a global pattern reminiscent of the Pacific decadal oscillation. The tropical SST anomalies are responsible for driving a weakening of the Hadley cell and atmospheric meridional heat transport. The atmosphere is then shown to produce a significant response in the subtropics, with wind-stress-curl anomalies having the opposite sign from the climatological mean, consistent with a weakening of the oceanic subtropical gyre (STG). A global ocean model is then forced with the decadal anomalies from the atmospheric model. In the North Pacific, the shallow subtropical cell (STC) spins down and the meridional heat transport is reduced, resulting in positive tropical SST anomalies. The final tropical response is reached after the first 10 years of the experiment, consistent with the Rossby-wave adjustment time for both the STG and the STC. The STC provides the connection between subtropical wind stress anomalies and tropical SSTs. In fact, targeted simulations show the importance of off-equatorial wind stress anomalies in driving the oceanic response, whereas anomalous tropical winds have no role in the SST signal reversal. We further explore the connection between STG, STC and tropical SST with the help of an idealized model. We argue that, in our models, tropical SST decadal variability stems from the forcing of the Pacific subtropical gyre through the atmospheric response to ENSO. The resulting Ekman pumping anomaly alters the STC and oceanic heat transport, providing a negative feedback on the SST. We thus suggest that extratropical atmospheric responses to tropical forcing have feedbacks onto the ocean dynamics that lead to a time-delayed response of the tropical oceans, giving rise to a possible mechanism for multidecadal ocean-atmosphere coupled variability.  相似文献   

3.
This article deals with the ocean circulation driven by steady zonal winds, and damped by bottom and biharmonic friction, when represented by the simple barotropic vorticity equation. A double gyre antisymmetrical wind stress pattern in a square basin is considered. Wind forcing and dissipation parameters are chosen within the ranges of what has been used in previous studies. The flow characteristics for both steady and unsteady situations are tentatively described as functions of model external parameters through the analysis of a large set of numerical experiments. Functional relations are derived for the mid-latitude jet parameters (length, width and transport) on the basis of scaling arguments. With the diagrams established for these quantities in forcing and dissipation parameter relations allow quantitative predictions of model response to a wide range of parameter choices to be made. The transition to barotropic instability is interpreted by analysing and comparing the spin-up phase of different numerical experiments leading either to stable or unstable solutions. Two major types of destabilization are identified, namely through meandering of the mid-latitude eastward jet and Rossby wave radiation from the westward return flow. The characteristics of the flows are shown to be highly sensitive to the external parameter changes. Competition between eddy kinetic energy level and eastward jet extension appears to consttitute the key point of this class of solutions, controlling in particular the intensity of transport in the inner gyres, driven by the eddy field on the two sides of the mid-basin jet, in a very similar manner to that of the more complex multilayered EGCMs.  相似文献   

4.
Stochastic wind forcing of ocean gyre circulations is examined using the ideas of generalized linear stability theory applied to the barotropic vorticity equation of a idealized ocean. The barotropic vorticity equation is linearized about a time-evolving basic state flow, and the spatial patterns of stochastic surface wind stress curl that are optimal for increasing the variability of the ocean are computed. The most disruptive pattern of stochastic forcing is found to be insensitive to: measures of variance, the optimization time, the temporal decorrelation time of the stochastic forcing, the time evolution of the basic state flow, the stability of the basic state flow, basin size, gyre symmetry, and the presence of bathymetry. In addition, the most disruptive pattern of wind stress curl is reminiscent of that which would be associated with individual large-scale weather systems in the atmosphere, and changes in the amplitude of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns. The response of a nonlinear model to stochastic forcing described by the optimal patterns is examined, and the dynamics of the response discussed.  相似文献   

5.
Large ensembles of simulations (ensemble size of 500 members) are performed using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) in order to investigate the non-linearities in the response to composite sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly forcings that are constant in time. The SST composite corresponds to the observed anomaly associated with the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The integration length is 90 days for each ensemble (covering January, February and March). A non-linearity is found in the mean response to the SST-forcing, with the negative SST-NAO forcing leading to a stronger and more clear atmospheric NAO response. These non-linearities appear to be due to asymmetries in the heating anomalies induced by the SST-forcing and asymmetries in the transient eddy vorticity forcing. Further non-linearities are due to initial period dependences of the response to the same SST-forcing. As a consequence, a pre-existing negative atmospheric NAO is much more persistent due to SST-feedback than a positive NAO.  相似文献   

6.
Numerical models demonstrate that a broad class of geophysical vortices freely evolve toward vertically aligned, axisymmetric states. In principle, this intrinsic drive toward symmetry opposes destructive shearing by the environmental flow.This article examines the case in which a discrete vortex-Rossby-wave dominates a perturbation from symmetry, and symmetrization occurs by decay of the wave. The wave is damped by a resonance with the fluid rotation frequency at a critical radius, r*. The damping rate is proportional to the radial derivative of potential vorticity at r*. Until now, the theory of resonantly damped vortex-Rossby-waves (technically quasi-modes) was formally restricted to slowly rotating vortices, which obey quasigeostrophic (QG) dynamics. This article extends the theory to rapidly rotating vortices.The analysis makes use of the asymmetric balance (AB) approximation. Even at a modest Rossby number (unity), AB theory can predict damping rates that exceed extrapolated QG results by orders of magnitude. This finding is verified upon comparison of AB theory to numerical experiments, based on the primitive equations. The experiments focus on the decay of low azimuthal wave-number asymmetries.A discrete vortex-Rossby-wave can also resonate with an outward propagating inertia-buoyancy wave (Lighthill radiation), inducing both to grow. At large Rossby numbers, this growth mechanism can be dynamically relevant. All balance models, including AB theory, neglect inertia-buoyancy waves, and therefore ignore the possibility of a Rossby-inertia-buoyancy (RIB) instability. This article shows that a large potential vorticity gradient (of the proper sign) at the critical radius r* can suppress the RIB instability, and thereby preserve balanced flow, even at large Rossby numbers.  相似文献   

7.
季风涡旋对台风活动有重要的影响, 因此研究季风涡旋的形成机制有利于提高台风预报的准确性。此研究利用中尺度非静力数值模式WRF-ARW模拟1991年8月季风涡旋的生成过程, 并对其生成机制进行分析。模式结果表明, 此次季风涡旋个例是由一个中纬度气旋性低压发展而来。初期中纬度高层正位势涡度的强迫作用有利于对流层低层气旋性低压的发展和维持, 随后高层动力强迫作用减弱, 但中纬度气旋性低压在南移过程中其东南侧对流带逐渐与低纬地区的对流带合并, 使得对流潜热释放增强, 进而使低压在Gill响应的作用下不断加强并最终形成季风涡旋。同时, 涡旋的对流结构表现出明显的非对称性, 因而使其得以维持较大尺度。敏感性试验的结果表明对流层高层强迫对于初始低层扰动的发展至关重要, 而后期热带地区的潜热释放有利于季风涡旋的增强。   相似文献   

8.
A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the south and by freshwater forcing at the surface. The model is aimed at investigating the ocean feedbacks related to perturbations in freshwater forcing from the atmosphere, and to changes in freshwater transport in the ocean. These feedbacks are closely connected with the stability properties of the meridional overturning circulation, in particular in response to freshwater perturbations. A separate box is used for representing the region north of the Antarctic circumpolar current in the Atlantic sector. The density difference between this region and the north of the basin is then used for scaling the downwelling in the north. These choices are essential for reproducing the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation observed in general circulation models, and therefore suggest that the southernmost part of the Atlantic Ocean north of the Drake Passage is of fundamental importance for the stability of the meridional overturning circulation. With this configuration, the magnitude of the freshwater transport by the southern subtropical gyre strongly affects the response of the meridional overturning circulation to external forcing. The role of the freshwater transport by the overturning circulation (M ov ) as a stability indicator is discussed. It is investigated under which conditions its sign at the latitude of the southern tip of Africa can provide information on the existence of a second, permanently shut down, state of the overturning circulation in the box model. M ov will be an adequate indicator of the existence of multiple equilibria only if salt-advection feedback dominates over other processes in determining the response of the circulation to freshwater anomalies. M ov is a perfect indicator if feedbacks other than salt-advection are negligible.  相似文献   

9.
In this study we assess the role of anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS) in recently observed precipitation trends over the Mediterranean region. We investigate whether the observed precipitation trends (1966–2005 and 1979–2008) are consistent with what 22 models project as response of precipitation to GS forcing. Significance is estimated using 9,000-year control runs derived from the CMIP3 archive. The results indicate that externally forced changes are detectable in observed precipitation trends in winter, late summer and in autumn. Natural internal climate variability cannot explain these changes. However, the observed trends (derived from 3 sources) are markedly inconsistent with expected changes due to GS forcing. While the influence of GS signal is detectable in winter and early spring, observed changes are several times larger than the projected response to GS forcing. The most striking inconsistency, however, is the contradiction between projected drying and the observed increase in precipitation in late summer and autumn, irrespective of the data set used. Natural (internal) variability as estimated from the models cannot account for these inconsistencies, which are already present in the large scale circulation patterns (Geopotential height at 500 hPa). The obtained results are robust to the removal of the fingerprint of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The detection of an outright sign mismatch of observed and projected trends in autumn and late summer, leads us to conclude that the recently observed trends can not be used as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the Mediterranean region. These significant shortcomings in our understanding of recent observed changes complicate communication of future expected changes in Mediterranean precipitation.  相似文献   

10.
A laboratory study in a rotating stratified basin examines the instability and long time evolution of the geostrophic double gyre introduced by the baroclinic adjustment to an initial basin-scale step height discontinuity in the density interface of a two-layer fluid. The dimensionless parameters that are important in determining the observed response are the Burger number S=R/R0 (where R is the baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation and R0 is the basin radius) and the initial forcing amplitude (H1 is the upper layer depth). Experimental observations and a numerical approach, using contour dynamics, are used to identify the mechanisms that result in the dominance of nonlinear behaviour in the long time evolution, τ>2−1 (where τ is time scaled by the inertial period TI=2π/f). When the influence of rotation is moderate (0.25≤S≤1), the instability mechanism is associated with the finite amplitude potential vorticity (PV) perturbation introduced when the double gyre is established. On the other hand, when the influence of rotation is strong (S≤0.1), baroclinic instability contributes to the nonlinear behaviour. Regardless of the mechanism, nonlinearity acts to transfer energy from the geostrophic double gyre to smaller scales associated with an eddy field. In the lower layer, Ekman damping is pronounced, resulting in the dissipation of the eddy field after only 40TI. In the upper layer, where dissipative effects are weak, the eddy field evolves until it reaches a symmetric distribution of potential vorticity within the domain consisting of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy pairs, after approximately 100TI. The functional dependence of the characteristic eddy lengthscale LE on S is consistent with previous laboratory studies on continuously forced geostrophic turbulence. The cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy pairs are maintained until viscous effects eventually dissipate all motion in the upper layer after approximately 800TI. The outcomes of this study are considered in terms of their contribution to the understanding of the energy pathways and transport processes associated with basin-scale motions in large stratified lakes.  相似文献   

11.
The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated for various climate scenario runs, using data from the CMIP3 archive of coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Apart from atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the salt flux into the Atlantic basin that is carried by the MOC determines whether the MOC is in the single or multiple equilibria regime. This salt advection feedback is analyzed by diagnosing the freshwater and salt budgets for the combined Atlantic and Arctic basins. Consistent with the finding that almost all coupled climate models recover from hosing experiments, it is found that most models feature a negative salt advection feedback in their pre-industrial climate: freshwater perturbations are damped by this feedback, excluding the existence of a stable off-state for the MOC. All models feature enhanced evaporation over the Atlantic basin in future climates, but for a moderate increase in radiative forcing (B1 and 2 CO2 scenarios), there is a decrease of the fresh water flux carried by the MOC into the Atlantic (the deficit is made up by increased fresh water transport by the gyre circulation). In this forcing regime the salt advection feedback becomes less negative: for three models from an ensemble of eight it is positive in a 2 CO2 climate, while two models feature a positive feedback in the pre-industrial climate. For even warmer climates (A1B-equilibrium and 4 CO2) the salt feedback becomes more negative (damping) again. It is shown that the decrease in northward fresh water transport at 34°S by the MOC (in B1-equilibrium and 2 CO2) is due to a reduction of the inflow of intermediate waters relative to thermocline waters, associated with a robust shoaling of the MOC in future, warmer climates. In A1B and 4 CO2 climates northward freshwater transport increases again. The MOC keeps shoaling, but both intermediate and thermocline water masses freshen.  相似文献   

12.
This paper investigates the dynamics of mesoscale eddy generation by instability of time-varying flows. Laboratory experiments on oscillatory motion over topography in a rapidly rotating cylinder have shown that isolated mesoscale eddies, which form in the sidewall boundary layer during certain phases of the forcing cycle, are associated with the onset of chaotic behavior in this system. This paper explores the origin of these eddies by performing computational simulations of the flow, and then interpreting the results of the calculations using spatially localized and quasi-static linear stability theory. For most of the experimental parameter space the quasi-geostrophic simulations are in excellent agreement with the laboratory observations. The eddies arise as a barotropic shear flow instability in regions of space and at times where the inflection points of the instantaneous large-scale flow are farthest from the sidewall, and where Fjortoft's theorem is strongly satisfied. At finite amplitude, advection of the local wavetrains up the bottom slope strengthens the anticyclonic eddies. These then merge, leading in most circumstances to a single strong anticyclonic vortex that can leave the sidewall and penetrate the interior. When parameters are such that the eddy persists all the way around the basin and back to the local instability region, the flow is observed to become chaotic.  相似文献   

13.
降水量是重要的预报要素之一,长期的降水预测更是能提前预测旱涝分布情况,为国民经济规划提供依据。但目前为止,长期的降水预测仍缺少客观的预报方法。为此,尝试利用非线性预测模型来预测旬降水量,并将该模型应用于福建平潭,分别用与原始数据的差值、与原始数据的相关系数、均方根误差,以及符号显著性检验方法,讨论了包含外强迫因子的平稳性模型与不包含外强迫因子的非线性模型的预测能力,结果表明:包含外强迫因子的模型第一步预测结果与原始观测数据的相关系数为0.73,不包含外强迫因子的模型第一步预测结果与原始观测数据的相关系数则为0.47。无论是从与原始数据的差值及相关系数,还是均方根误差等方面,外强迫模型都是优于平稳性模型,并且通过符号检验方法可看出两种模型存在差异性,这也说明加入外强迫因子可以有效地提高预测技巧,外强迫因子与状态变量在预测中扮演同等重要的角色。  相似文献   

14.
Internal variability of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is investigated in a 600 years control simulation of a comprehensive coupled climate model. The subpolar gyre shows irregular oscillations of decadal time scale with most spectral power between 15 and 20 years. Positive and negative feedback mechanisms act successively on the circulation leading to an internal oscillation. This involves periodically enhanced deep convection in the subpolar gyre center and intermittently enhanced air-sea thermal coupling. As a result, anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation can be transferred to the ocean on the ocean’s intrinsic time scale, exciting the oscillator stochastically. A detailed understanding of oscillatory mechanisms of the ocean and their sensitivity to atmospheric forcing holds considerable potential for decadal predictions as well as for the interpretation of proxy data records.  相似文献   

15.
Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.  相似文献   

16.
热带气旋运动的动力学研究进展   总被引：30，自引：7，他引：23  
热带气旋运动是由各种形式的外部强迫、内部过程及其相互作用所决定的。特别是环境气流与气旋环流以及β效应之间的相互作用可以产生次级的非对称气流,使热带气旋偏离大尺度环境气流的引导。这种偏差,被称为广义的β漂移。本文讨论了控制β漂移的物理因子和物理过程,尤其是涡旋结构与环境气流切变对它的影响,以及β漂移在热带气旋路径预报上的应用。另外,还总结了双台风相互作用、热带气旋摆动和与下垫面强迫有关的物理过程的影响。  相似文献   

17.
Observations show a multidecadal signal in the North Atlantic ocean, but the underlying mechanism and cause of its timescale remain unknown. Previous studies have suggested that it may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant pattern of winter atmospheric variability. To further address this issue, the global ocean general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), is driven using a 2,000 years long white noise forcing associated with the NAO. Focusing on key ocean circulation patterns, we show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Sub-polar gyre (SPG) strength both have enhanced power at low frequencies but no dominant timescale, and thus provide no evidence for a oscillatory ocean-only mode of variability. Instead, both indices respond linearly to the NAO forcing, but with different response times. The variability of the AMOC at 30°N is strongly enhanced on timescales longer than 90 years, while that of the SPG strength starts increasing at 15 years. The different response characteristics are confirmed by constructing simple statistical models that show AMOC and SPG variability can be related to the NAO variability of the previous 53 and 10 winters, respectively. Alternatively, the AMOC and the SPG strength can be reconstructed with Auto-regressive (AR) models of order seven and five, respectively. Both statistical models reconstruct interannual and multidecadal AMOC variability well, while on the other hand, the AR(5) reconstruction of the SPG strength only captures multidecadal variability. Using these methods to reconstruct ocean variables can be useful for prediction and model intercomparision.  相似文献   

18.
Mesoscale resolution ocean general circulation model (EGCM) experiments have been carried out under a variety of different model physical assumptions, and the different model systems often produce very different deep mean flow fields. The flat bottom, rectangular basin experiments exhibit two distinct types of deep mean flow, which are here called “corotating” and “counterrotating”. Counterrotating deep flow, in which two adjacent deep gyres, with circulation of opposite senses, underlie the upper ocean eastward jet and its recirculation, has been found only in models with adiabetic two-layer model physics. None of the more complex model systems exhibit counterrotating deep flows; this type of flow is apparently restricted to a particular range of forcing/dissipation parameter space and/or particular model physical assumptions.Since the deep flow in these EGCM systems is generally weak, geostrophic dynamics provides the basic deep flow interior balance and the mean vertical velocity field, through the lower layer vorticity equation, largely determines the deep interior flow. The dynamical constraints on the mean vertical velocity field introduced by different model physical equations are reviewed and the adiabatic quasi-geostrophic (QG) two-layer model system is shown to be strongly constrained in several respects. In particular, the idea that eddy and mean heat flux divergence (or “layer thickness flux divergence”) drive the mean vertical velocity does not generalize to more complicated dynamical systems in which there is the possibility of altering the mean vertical density profile and/or in which the horizontal flow can be divergent. As a consequence of the constraints, there can be no basin net vorticity input to the lower layer via vortex stretching in the QG system.Because of the adiabatic QG constraints and the particular parametric regime in which the published adiabatic QG EGCM experiments exist, a very plausible explanation can be found for the existence of the deep cyclonic circulation of the model subtropical gyre. It is this cyclonic circulation that causes these deep flows to differ so dramatically from those of the more physically complex model systems. Because all the published adiabatic QG experiments that have non-trivial deep flows exhibit the counterrotating behavior, and because available ocean data do not support the existence of such a gyre in the North Atlantic, it seems important to thoroughly understand the reasons for the existence or absence of the deep cyclonic circulations. If they are an invitable feature of adiabatic QG systems, these models may need to be treated with caution as tools for understanding the mean ocean circulation.  相似文献   

19.
This work is an attempt to simulate the Mediterranean Sea general circulation with a Spectral Finite Element Model. This numerical technique associates the geometrical flexibility of the finite elements for the proper coastline definition with the precision offered by spectral methods. The model is reduced gravity and we study the wind-driven ocean response in order to explain the large scale sub-basin gyres and their variability. The study period goes from January 1987 to December 1993 and two forcing data sets are used. The effect of wind variability in space and time is analyzed and the relationship between wind stress curl and ocean response is stressed. Some of the main permanent structures of the general circulation (Gulf of Lions cyclonic gyre, Rhodes gyre, Gulf of Syrte anticylone) are shown to be induced by permanent wind stress curl structures. The magnitude and spatial variability of the wind is important in determining the appearance or disappearance of some gyres (Tyrrhenian anticyclonic gyre, Balearic anticyclonic gyre, Ionian cyclonic gyre). An EOF analysis of the seasonal variability indicates that the weakening and strengthening of the Levantine basin boundary currents is a major component of the seasonal cycle in the basin.The important discovery is that seasonal and interannual variability peak at the same spatial scales in the ocean response and that the interannual variability includes the change in amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle in the sub-basin scale gyres and boundary currents. The Coriolis term in the vorticity balance seems to be responsible for the weakening of anticyclonic structures and their total disappearance when they are close to a boundary.The process of adjustment to winds produces a train of coastally trapped gravity waves which travel around the eastern and western basins, respectively in approximately 6 months. This corresponds to a phase velocity for the wave of about 1 m/s, comparable to an average velocity of an internal Kelvin wave in the area.  相似文献   

20.
Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.  相似文献   

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