排序方式： 共有73条查询结果，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
Clara Lemos France Floc’h Marissa Yates Nicolas Le Dantec Vincent Marieu Klervi Hamon Véronique Cuq Serge Suanez Christophe Delacourt 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(9):1207-1220
Eleven-year long time series of monthly beach profile surveys and hourly incident wave conditions are analyzed for a macrotidal Low Tide Terrace beach. The lower intertidal zone of the beach has a pluriannual cycle, whereas the upper beach profile has a predominantly seasonal cycle. An equilibrium model is applied to study the variation of the contour elevation positions in the intertidal zone as a function of the wave energy, wave power, and water level. When forcing the model with wave energy, the predictive ability of the equilibrium model is around 60% in the upper intertidal zone but decreases to 40% in the lower intertidal zone. Using wave power increases the predictive ability up to 70% in both the upper and lower intertidal zones. However, changes around the inflection point are not well predicted. The equilibrium model is then extended to take into account the effects of the tide level. The initial results do not show an increase in the predictive capacity of the model, but do allow the model free parameters to represent more accurately the values expected in a macrotidal environment. This allows comparing the empirical model calibration in different tidal environment. The interpretation of the model free parameter variation across the intertidal zone highlights the behavior of the different zones along the intertidal beach profile. This contributes to a global interpretation of the four model parameters for beaches with different tidal ranges, and therefore to a global model applicable at a wide variety sites. 相似文献
2.
Using geodetic GPS receivers to measure vegetation water content 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Wei Wan Kristine M. Larson Eric E. Small Clara C. Chew John J. Braun 《GPS Solutions》2015,19(2):237-248
3.
L. Goddard A. Kumar A. Solomon D. Smith G. Boer P. Gonzalez V. Kharin W. Merryfield C. Deser S. J. Mason B. P. Kirtman R. Msadek R. Sutton E. Hawkins T. Fricker G. Hegerl C. A. T. Ferro D. B. Stephenson G. A. Meehl T. Stockdale R. Burgman A. M. Greene Y. Kushnir M. Newman J. Carton I. Fukumori T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty. 相似文献
4.
Connecting Satellite Observations with Water Cycle Variables Through Land Data Assimilation: Examples Using the NASA GEOS-5 LDAS 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Rolf H. Reichle Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy Barton A. Forman Clara S. Draper Qing Liu 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):577-606
A land data assimilation system (LDAS) can merge satellite observations (or retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, satellite observations do not correspond directly to the water cycle variables of interest. The present paper addresses various aspects of this seeming mismatch using examples drawn from recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 LDAS. These aspects include (1) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (2) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (3) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based soil moisture and snow assimilation, and (4) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable that is not observed (such as root zone soil moisture). The solution to these challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations. 相似文献
5.
Clara Deal 《极地研究(英文版)》2008,19(2):218-229
Primary production in the Bering and Chukchi Seas is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of sea ice. Here pelagic and sea ice algal ecosystems coexist and interact with each other. Ecosystem modeling of sea ice associated phytoplankton blooms has been understudied compared to open water ecosystem model applications. This study introduces a general coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model with equations and parameters for 1-D and 3-D applications that is based on 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model development in the landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea and marginal ice zone of Bering Sea. The biological model includes both pelagic and sea ice algal habitats with 10 compartments： three phytoplankton （pelagic diatom, flagellates and ice algae： D, F, and Ai） , three zooplankton （copepods, large zooplankton, and microzooplankton ： ZS, ZL, ZP） , three nutrients （ nitrate ＋ nitrite, ammonium, silicon ： NO3 , NH4, Si） and detritus （Det）. The coupling of the biological models with physical ocean models is straightforward with just the addition of the advection and diffusion terms to the ecosystem model. The coupling with a multi-category sea ice model requires the same calculation of the sea ice ecosystem model in each ice thickness category and the redistribution between categories caused by both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing as in the physical model. Phytoplankton and ice algal self-shading effect is the sole feedback from the ecosystem model to the physical model. 相似文献
6.
The Bayesian detection of discontinuities in a polynomial regression and its application to the cycle-slip problem 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Maria Clara de Lacy Mirko Reguzzoni Fernando Sansò Giovanna Venuti 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(9):527-542
This paper deals with the problem of detecting and correcting cycle-slips in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) phase
data by exploiting the Bayesian theory. The method is here applied to undifferenced observations, because repairing cycle-slips
already at this stage could be a useful pre-processing tool, especially for a network of permanent GNSS stations. If a dual
frequency receiver is available, the cycle-slips can be easily detected by combining two phase observations or phase and range
observations from a single satellite to a single receiver. These combinations, expressed in a distance unit form, are completely
free from the geometry and depend only on the ionospheric effect, on the electronic biases and on the initial integer ambiguities;
since these terms are expected to be smooth in time, at least in a short period, a cycle-slip in one or both the two carriers
can be modelled as a discontinuity in a polynomial regression. The proposed method consists in applying the Bayesian theory
to compute the marginal posterior distribution of the discontinuity epoch and to detect it as a maximum a posteriori (MAP)
in a very accurate way. Concerning the cycle-slip correction, a couple of simultaneous integer slips in the two carriers is
chosen by maximazing the conditional posterior distribution of the discontinuity amplitude given the detected epoch. Numerical
experiments on simulated and real data show that the discontinuities with an amplitude 2 or 3 times larger than the noise
standard deviation are successfully identified. This means that the Bayesian approach is able to detect and correct cycle-slips
using undifferenced GNSS observations even if the slip occurs by one cycle. A comparison with the scientific software BERNESE
5.0 confirms the good performance of the proposed method, especially when data sampled at high frequency (e.g. every 1 s or
every 5 s) are available. 相似文献
7.
The influence of elevation on soil properties and forest litter in the Siliceous Moncayo Massif,SW Europe 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
David Badía Alberto Ruiz Antonio Girona Clara Martí José Casanova Paloma Ibarra Raquel Zufiaurre 《山地科学学报》2016,13(12):2155-2169
Understanding the effects of elevation and related factors (climate, vegetation) on the physical and chemical soil properties can help to predict changes in response to future climate or afforestation forcings. This work aims to contribute to the knowledge of soil evolution and the classification of forest soils in relation to elevation in the montane stage, with special attention to podzolization and humus forms. The northern flank of the Moncayo Massif (Iberian Range, SW Europe) provides a unique opportunity to study a forest soils catena within a consistent quartzitic parent material over a relatively steep elevation gradient. With increasing elevation, pH, base saturation, exchangeable potassium, and fine silt-sized particles decrease significantly, while organic matter, the C/N ratio, soil aggregate stability, water repellency and coarse sand-sized particles increase significantly. The soil profiles shared a set of properties in all horizons: loamy-skeletal particle-size, extreme acidity (pH-H2O<5.6) and low base saturation (<50%). The most prevalent soil forming processes in the catena include topsoil organic matter accumulation and even podzolization, which increases with elevation. From the upper to lower landscape positions of wooded montane stage of the Moncayo Massif, mull-moder-mor humus and an Umbrisol-Cambisol-Podzol soil unit sequences were found. 相似文献
8.
Real-time cycle slip detection in triple-frequency GNSS 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
The modernization of the global positioning system and the advent of the European project Galileo will lead to a multifrequency global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The presence of new frequencies introduces more degrees of freedom in the GNSS data combination. We define linear combinations of GNSS observations with the aim to detect and correct cycle slips in real time. In particular, the detection is based on five geometry-free linear combinations used in three cascading steps. Most of the jumps are detected in the first step using three minimum-noise combinations of phase and code observations. The remaining jumps with very small amplitude are detected in the other two steps by means of two-tailored linear combinations of phase observations. Once the epoch of the slip has been detected, its amplitude is estimated using other linear combinations of phase observations. These combinations are defined with the aim of discriminating between the possible combinations of jump amplitudes in the three carriers. The method has been tested on simulated data and 1-second triple-frequency undifferenced GPS data coming from a friendly multipath environment. Results show that the proposed method is able to detect and repair all combinations of cycle slips in the three carriers. 相似文献
9.
10.
The ongoing loss of Arctic sea-ice cover has implications for the wider climate system. The detection and importance of the atmospheric impacts of sea-ice loss depends, in part, on the relative magnitudes of the sea-ice forced change compared to natural atmospheric internal variability (AIV). This study analyses large ensembles of two independent atmospheric general circulation models in order to separate the forced response to historical Arctic sea-ice loss (1979–2009) from AIV, and to quantify signal-to-noise ratios. We also present results from a simulation with the sea-ice forcing roughly doubled in magnitude. In proximity to regions of sea-ice loss, we identify statistically significant near-surface atmospheric warming and precipitation increases, in autumn and winter in both models. In winter, both models exhibit a significant lowering of sea level pressure and geopotential height over the Arctic. All of these responses are broadly similar, but strengthened and/or more geographically extensive, when the sea-ice forcing is doubled in magnitude. Signal-to-noise ratios differ considerably between variables and locations. The temperature and precipitation responses are significantly easier to detect (higher signal-to-noise ratio) than the sea level pressure or geopotential height responses. Equally, the local response (i.e., in the vicinity of sea-ice loss) is easier to detect than the mid-latitude or upper-level responses. Based on our estimates of signal-to-noise, we conjecture that the local near-surface temperature and precipitation responses to past Arctic sea-ice loss exceed AIV and are detectable in observed records, but that the potential atmospheric circulation, upper-level and remote responses may be partially or wholly masked by AIV. 相似文献