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1.
Yi Li Bisong Hu Dong Zhang Jianhua Gong Yiquan Song 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):2241-2258
ABSTRACTA flood evacuation represents a complex geographic phenomenon that includes comprehensive interactions among humans, the flood and urban environments; thus, the simulation of flood evacuations requires crowd simulation models to be coupled with flood models. This paper studies the human-environment relationship during flooding and promotes a simulation model that combines cellular automata and a multiagent system to simulate crowd evacuations in flood disasters. A case study of Niaodao Island was used to evaluate the performance of flood evacuation experiments, and real-participant experiments based on the virtual reality (VR) environment were employed for bench-mark comparisons. The integrated model can provide a comprehensive solution to assist flood risk analysis. 相似文献
2.
Xiaoyi Ma Ci Song Chenghu Zhou 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(12):2401-2420
In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment. 相似文献
3.
Research on disaster response frequently uses volunteered geographic information (VGI), due to its capability to provide near real-time information during and after a disaster. It is much less commonly used in spatial planning related to disaster management. However, VGI appears to have considerable potential for use in spatial planning and offers some advantages over traditional methods. For example, VGI can capture residents' preferences in a much faster, more timely, and more comprehensive fashion than is possible with, for example, questionnaires and surveys. This research investigates the usefulness of VGI for planning flood evacuation shelters. Using Jakarta, Indonesia, as a case study, we use VGI to capture the locations of flood evacuation shelters based on residents' preferences during flood periods in 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 and compare these with the locations of official shelters. Floods frequently affect Jakarta and the city administration uses VGI in flood emergency responses. Moreover, Jakarta has been identified as having the largest number of active Twitter users among cities worldwide. Thus, Jakarta is an appropriate place to study the use of VGI for planning evacuation shelters. VGI generated by Twitter users was used to identify the shelter locations preferred by Jakarta residents, and more precisely the flood evacuees. Of 171,046 tweets using keywords relating to flood evacuation, the content of 306 tweets indicated that they had been sent from inside or near evacuation shelters. The spatial pattern showed that those tweets were sent from 215 locations, mostly located near flooded areas. The analysis further showed that 35.6% of these shelter locations preferred by residents intersected with the locations of official evacuation shelters. As a general conclusion, our study demonstrates the advantages of using VGI for spatial planning, which mainly relates to the ease of capturing community preferences over a large area. 相似文献
4.
Luke David VanLandegen Xuwei Chen 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):787-797
Public transit plays an important role in emergency evacuations, particularly for areas where public transit serves as a major commute mode for commuters. Microsimulation techniques provide great flexibility in assessing different scenarios in emergency situations. Combining GIS-based network analysis with microsimulation techniques, this study developed a framework to simulate emergency evacuations using rail transit. Applying the framework to a hypothetical attack on the Pentagon, this study investigated the performance of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority’s Metrorail for large-scale evacuations. A network-based analysis was performed to estimate the number of riders in association with each metro line and station. Using VISSIM, a multi-mode micro-simulation software package, this study integrated a pedestrian model with a Metrorail transit model to evaluate the performance of the Metrorail in the hypothetical evacuations. The simulation results suggested that if the potential of Metrorail transit is effectively utilized, it could be very useful resource during a large-scale evacuation. This study demonstrated the great potential and flexibility of microsimulation techniques for evaluating complex evacuation scenarios and strategies. The framework and approach used in this study can be applied to analyze other similar situations and help develop effective evacuation plans. 相似文献
5.
Martin E. Westbrooke 《The Australian geographer》2005,36(2):171-181
Episodic high rainfall has been proposed as an important factor in perennial species recruitment but flooding based on rainfall at a distance from the site has received little attention. Although such flood events in arid Australia are rare, studies of the ephemeral Olary Creek indicate that occasional floods can also have a high impact on the vegetation and landscape. During February 1997, a high-rainfall event caused flooding in the Olary Creek. One branch of the creek created a terminal lake within mallee vegetation on Nagaela Station in far-western New South Wales. The flood path of Olary Creek and this terminal lake allow study of the importance of rainfall-driven flood events in shaping vegetation in arid environments. This paper reports (i) the response of arid land plant species to high-rainfall-driven episodic flood events and (ii) how grazing pressure from native and introduced herbivores can impact on native species response.
A systematic study was conducted to understand the botanical composition in flooded and control areas based on 25 m2 fenced and unfenced plots subjected to flooding and non-flooding. For 6 years following flooding, species richness in the flooded area was twice that of unflooded areas. In particular, 27 native species from 13 families were recorded both in the enclosed and open plots located in the flooded area. Over the study period nine species: Brachyscome ciliaris, Helichrysum leucopsidium, Vittadinia cuneata, Casuarina pauper, Maireana sedifolia, Salsola kali, Sclerolaena obliquicuspis, Eremophila sturtii and Eucalyptus foecunda germinated only in the flooded enclosed plots. Further, 11 exotic species from five families were recorded in the flooded (both enclosed and open) plots over the study period. Knowledge gained from this study will contribute to management strategies for arid land vegetation. 相似文献
6.
Christopher J. Amante 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):2188-2217
ABSTRACTFuture sea-level rise will likely expand the inland extent of storm surge inundation and, in turn, increase the vulnerability of the people, properties and economies of coastal communities. Modeling future storm surge inundation enhanced by sea-level rise uses numerous data sources with inherent uncertainties. There is uncertainty in (1) hydrodynamic storm surge models, (2) future sea-level rise projections, and (3) topographic digital elevation models representing the height of the coastal land surface. This study implemented a Monte Carlo approach to incorporate the uncertainties of these data sources and model the future 1% flood zone extent in the Tottenville neighborhood of New York City (NYC) in a probabilistic, geographical information science (GIS) framework. Generated spatiotemporal statistical products indicate a range of possible future flood zone extents that results from the uncertainties of the data sources and from the terrain itself. Small changes in the modeled land and water heights within the estimated uncertainties of the data sources results in larger uncertainty in the future flood zone extent in low-lying areas with smaller terrain slope. An interactive web map, UncertainSeas.com, visualizes these statistical products and can inform coastal management policies to reduce the vulnerability of Tottenville, NYC to future coastal inundation. 相似文献
7.
降低洪灾社会脆弱度是缓解洪灾社会影响,建立洪水韧性的重要途径。本文从敏感性、适应性和暴露度3个方面构建微观尺度下的洪灾社会脆弱度评价指标体系,以安康市4个滨河村庄为例,运用基于熵权的综合指数法评价农户的洪灾社会脆弱度,并通过BP神经网络分析厘清评价指标与社会脆弱度之间的重要性关系,识别出洪灾社会脆弱度的主要影响因素。据此提出相应的对策建议作为降低农户洪灾社会脆弱度的实践依据。研究表明：①案例村调研样本中近一半的农户处于高社会脆弱度等级,由此推算,研究区有715个农户具有较高的洪灾社会脆弱度;②受访者健康状况、防汛信息渠道、避灾疏散方式、建筑质量、是否有病残人口、家庭收入多样性、5岁以下幼儿比重和60岁以上老年人比重是农户社会脆弱度的主要影响因素;③基于农户视角的洪灾社会脆弱度评价能准确地识别出脆弱度较高的农户,其结果在降低洪灾社会脆弱度方面更具有现实意义。 相似文献
8.
9.
STEPHEN YEO 《The Australian geographer》2003,34(2):195-209
A survey of 71 caravan parks in coastal NSW indicates a high exposure to flooding. Most parks in NSW are flood-prone. A growing number of long-term residents in the 1980s, and essentially immovable manufactured homes in the 1990s, significantly increased flood risk. However, many parks are ill-equipped to deal with flooding: a high turnover of park managers means that most have no direct experience of floods; attitudes of denial prevail; most parks have no means of raising community flood awareness; and the process of flood response planning is patchy and of poor quality. Key strategies for the reduction of flood risk are suggested, including a more rigorous implementation of tighter regulations that better guard the health and safety of park residents, and the equipping of park managers to self-manage risk. 相似文献
10.
Mariana Madruga de Brito Adrian Almoradie Mariele Evers 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(9):1788-1806
This study presents a methodology for conducting sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a GIS-based multi-criteria model used to assess flood vulnerability in a case study in Brazil. The paper explores the robustness of model outcomes against slight changes in criteria weights. One criterion was varied at-a-time, while others were fixed to their baseline values. An algorithm was developed using Python and a geospatial data abstraction library to automate the variation of weights, implement the ANP (analytic network process) tool, reclassify the raster results, compute the class switches, and generate an uncertainty surface. Results helped to identify highly vulnerable areas that are burdened by high uncertainty and to investigate which criteria contribute to this uncertainty. Overall, the criteria ‘houses with improper building material’ and ‘evacuation drills and training’ are the most sensitive ones, thus, requiring more accurate measurements. The sensitivity of these criteria is explained by their weights in the base run, their spatial distribution, and the spatial resolution. These findings can support decision makers to characterize, report, and mitigate uncertainty in vulnerability assessment. The case study results demonstrate that the developed approach is simple, flexible, transparent, and may be applied to other complex spatial problems. 相似文献
11.
The fluvial geomorphological development of the Tagliamento River and its flooding history is analysed using historical documents and maps, remote-sensed data and hydrological information. The river has been building a complex alluvial fan starting from the middle part of its alluvial course in the Venetia–Friuli alluvial plain. The riverbed is aggrading over its entire braided length. The transition from braiding to meandering near Madrisio has shifted downstream where the river width determined by the dikes becomes narrower, causing major problems. The flood hazard concentrates at those places and zones where flooding occurred during historical times. Prior to the agrarian and industrial revolution, land use was adjusted to the flooding regime of the river. Subsequent land-use pressure led to a confinement of the river by dikes to such an extent that the flood risk in the floodplain downstream of Madrisio has increased consistently, and represents nowadays a major territorial planning issue. The planned retention basins upstream of the middle Tagliamento will alleviate the problem, but not solve it in the medium and long term. Therefore, fluvial corridors in the lower-middle parts (from Pinzano to the sea) have been identified on the basis of the flooding history in relation to fluvial development during historical times. The result should be used for hydraulic simulation studies and land-use planning. 相似文献
12.
E. Martínez Ibarra 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):490-500
The study demonstrates the importance, in general, of adopting a geographical (integral) approach and local analysis to determine flood risk in small Mediterranean basins, where normally there is no surface runoff. At the same time, it highlights the possibilities afforded by a post-flood study. More specifically, the study seeks to identify the factors that aggravated the impact of the extreme flood event in the tourist town of Calpe (Alicante, Spain) on 12 October 2007.Our results stress the high volume of discharge that can be generated by small basins in the Mediterranean following intense rainfall events that may exceed 200 mm/day. For the 4.6 km2 drainage network studied here, we calculate a maximum discharge of 143 m3/s, for a return period of 500 years. This natural risk (high potential discharge in what are usually dry basins) is exacerbated by the socio-economic transformations that have taken place along the Mediterranean coast. The expansion of urban land use has increased vulnerability to flooding in highly attractive tourist zones that are now at high risk of flooding. The municipal area recognised as presenting a class “2” qualitative vulnerability (on a scale from 1 to 6, where 1 is the most vulnerable) rose from 1% to 34% between 1956 and 2002. Changes to the basins and the traditional drainage systems in endorheic zones have also increased vulnerability to flood events. For example, the area occupied by the mouth of the main basin analysed here has fallen from 2.4 ha in 1956 to just 0.7 ha in 2002.The study’s main conclusions point to the need to introduce hydrological monitoring networks in small drainage systems in ephemeral river basins. It also stresses the importance of implementing structural actions to facilitate surface runoff discharge. In the mid-to-long term we conclude that there should be a declassification of urban land use zones at high risk of flooding. Moreover, detailed (local) studies which adopt an integral approach in their post-flood analyses should be undertaken to identify levels of flood risk and the appropriate land use regulations required. 相似文献
13.
Majority of rice cultivation areas in the Philippines are susceptible to excessive flooding owing to intense rainfall events. The study introduces the use of fine scale flood inundation modelling to map cultivation areas in Apalit, a rice-producing municipality located in the province of Pampanga in the Philippines. The study used a LiDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM), river discharge and rainfall data to generate flood inundation maps using LISFLOOD-FP. By applying spatial analysis, rice cultivation zone maps were derived and four cultivation zones are proposed. In areas where both depth and duration exceed threshold values set in this study, varieties tolerant to stagnant flooding and submergence are highly recommended in Zone 1, where flood conditions are least favorable for any existing traditional lowland irrigation varieties. The study emphasizes that a decline in yield is likely as increasing flood extents and longer submergence periods may cause cultivation areas for traditional irrigated lowland varieties to decrease over time. This decrease in yield may be prevented by using varieties most suitable to the flooding conditions as prescribed in the rice zone classification. The method introduced in this study could facilitate appropriate rice cultivation in flood-prone areas. 相似文献
14.
洪涝灾害遥感监测研究 总被引：10，自引：3，他引：7
本文讨论了利用陆地卫星、气象卫星和航空侧视雷达等遥感技术进行洪涝灾情监测的技术方法,并应用于1991年江淮地区特大洪涝灾害的快速调查与分析。 相似文献
15.
Xuwei Chen 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):160-173
This article investigates the effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies for hurricane evacuations of Galveston Island using agent-based microsimulation techniques. In the simultaneous strategy the entire population is informed to evacuate simultaneously, whereas in a staged evacuation strategy, people are informed to evacuate in a sequence. The results suggest that (1) the most efficient staged evacuation strategy can help reduce the evacuation time for Galveston Island by approximately one hour, (2) previous studies might have underestimated the evacuation time of Galveston, and (3) an evacuation under the rapid response assumption does not necessarily lead to an effective evacuation. 相似文献
16.
基于栅格的鄱阳湖生态经济区洪灾脆弱性评价 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
目前洪灾脆弱性研究主要是基于行政区划上的社会脆弱性评价,无法揭示评价单元内部脆弱性的空间分布。选取鄱阳湖生态经济区作为研究对象,根据人与环境系统的特点,选择影响洪灾脆弱性的15个变量,建立了基于栅格的洪灾脆弱性综合指数模型。结果表明,研究区域的洪灾脆弱性以中度脆弱为主,极度与高度脆弱区主要分布在人口密集的鄱阳湖东南与西南部的湖滨地区、主要河流的缓冲区以及土地利用类型为水田的区域。从脆弱性的3个要素(暴露度、敏感性和适应能力)的空间分布揭示了洪灾脆弱性空间分布形成的原因。基于栅格的评价结果,能够充分反映县市内部和行政边界处洪灾脆弱性的空间分布与变化情况。 相似文献
17.
Flooding in the business district of Kempsey, New South Wales, Australia, in 2001 allowed the collection and analysis of commercial flood damage data. Analysis indicated that direct losses were significant, totalling A$2.5 million. Data were variable owing to differences in the vulnerability of businesses to flood damage, differences in the impacts of the hazard upon businesses and survey uncertainty. Little direct relationship was found between direct commercial damage and over-floor water depth. Simple averaging and stage-damage curve loss estimation methods ignore the large variability present and result in inaccurate estimation of direct commercial damage. Probability loss estimation methods account for the variability present by assessing the chance of loss values occurring at specified depths of over-floor flooding. 相似文献
18.
城市山洪灾害多目标评估方法探讨 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文针对目前城市山洪灾害的突出问题, 分析了国内外研究状况和发展趋势; 探讨了城市 山洪灾害多目标评估系统方法,包括山洪灾害泛滥范围的危险区划、城市易损性分析、城市山洪 灾害损失评估和风险评价四个主要内容。关于山洪孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体的社会经济状 况, 本研究提出一套基于GIS 的从数据采集→空间属性数据库建立→评价指标体系选择→预测 评价分析→山洪灾害危险性评价与风险区划的技术路线和方法体系。山洪灾害危险区划采用地 貌学和数值模拟方法; 以高分辨率遥感卫星影像为数据源, 分析了城市土地覆盖类型, 应用GIS 进行了山洪灾害损失评估和风险评价。山洪灾害多目标评估可用于指导城市洪泛区不同危险、风 险地带的土地利用规划与决策, 从而达到规避风险和减灾的目的, 并为山洪灾害影响区的居民提 供灾害风险信息, 以作为避难和防洪的依据。 相似文献
19.
为了揭示城市暴雨内涝灾害对应急响应服务功能的影响,论文基于高精度城市洪涝模型(FloodMap)和增强型两步移动搜寻法(E2SFCA),对暴雨内涝灾害影响下上海市中心城区消防服务可达性进行精细化评估。研究结果表明：① 百年一遇暴雨内涝情景下,内涝最严重时积水深度超过50 cm的淹没范围整体呈现“西高东低”分布态势,淹没总面积约1.5 km2,可导致471条路段(约占路网全长5.11%)通行受阻。② 上海市中心城区消防服务可达性的空间差异比较显著,大体呈现出由黄浦江两岸向西北和东南方向递减态势,但在一天中的不同时段,可达性空间格局变化并不明显。③ 与正常天气条件相比,暴雨内涝情景下不可达单元(250 m×250 m)数量显著增多,夜间低峰、早高峰、白天平峰和晚高峰时段分别增加36.32%、35.89%、39.07%和32.01%;从暴雨内涝的过程(全程120 min)上看,在雨峰后半段((30, 45] min)不可达单元数量最多,消防服务可达性的空间差异程度最大。④ 消防服务可达性表现出一定程度的空间集聚特征,其中高值聚集区(“高—高”型)主要位于黄浦江两岸以及浦西边缘地区,低值聚集区(“低—低”型)主要位于西北和西南区域,这2类聚集区呈“团块状”分布,而“高—低”型和“低—高”型集聚均不显著。⑤ 研究区内消防服务可达性与需求的空间失配现象(“低需求—高可达”或“高需求—低可达”)较为明显,而暴雨内涝会加剧空间失配问题。研究结果可为提升城市洪涝灾害管理与应急响应服务的精细化水平提供科学依据。 相似文献
20.
Zhifen Chen Xiang Chen Jin Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1612-1630
The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters. 相似文献