共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
Hazard warnings and responses to evacuation orders: the case of Bangladesh's cyclone Sidr 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
On 15 November 2007 Cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh. Despite early cyclone warnings and evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines dissemination of the warning, assesses the warning responses, and explores the reasons why many residents did not evacuate. Field data collected from 257 Sidr survivors in four severely affected coastal districts revealed that more than three-fourths of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders. Despite the sincere efforts of the Bangladesh government, however, lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures occurred. Field data also revealed several reasons why evacuation orders were not followed. The reasons fell into three broad groups: those involving shelter characteristics; the attributes of the warning message itself; and the respondents' characteristics. Based on our findings, we recommend improved cyclone warnings and utilization of public shelters for similar events in the future. 相似文献
2.
Menghui Li Jin Li Xingliang Liu Han Ru Chao Sun 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(5):922-944
This research presents an operable zoning approach for phased evacuations adapted to disasters with spatio-temporal randomness. As a criterion for prioritizing evacuation order, evacuation risk is formulated by taking into consideration the estimated residual evacuation horizon associated with the characteristics of the disaster, the estimated time-dependent capacities of outbound lanes related to network supply, and the time-dependent evacuation demand of an evacuation unit. The modeling of the subzone determined for phased evacuation is based on rescue demand, the characteristics of the disaster, and network supply, and is labeled as a high-risk evacuation zone (HEZ). The range of HEZ features a time-evolving pattern in accordance with phased evacuation. The zone partition paradigm can be seamlessly applied to different types of disasters, especially those with high spatio-temporal randomness. It also provides a generalizable approach for subzone partitioning in phased evacuation by minimizing evacuation risk. The proposed approach is examined on numerical experiments through the road network of Xi’an, China, the results of which highlight its strength in increased adaptability to the dynamics of disaster impact and improved performance in evacuation operation. 相似文献
3.
Zhifen Chen Xiang Chen Jin Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1612-1630
The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters. 相似文献
4.
Yi Li Bisong Hu Dong Zhang Jianhua Gong Yiquan Song 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):2241-2258
ABSTRACTA flood evacuation represents a complex geographic phenomenon that includes comprehensive interactions among humans, the flood and urban environments; thus, the simulation of flood evacuations requires crowd simulation models to be coupled with flood models. This paper studies the human-environment relationship during flooding and promotes a simulation model that combines cellular automata and a multiagent system to simulate crowd evacuations in flood disasters. A case study of Niaodao Island was used to evaluate the performance of flood evacuation experiments, and real-participant experiments based on the virtual reality (VR) environment were employed for bench-mark comparisons. The integrated model can provide a comprehensive solution to assist flood risk analysis. 相似文献
5.
城市应急避难所的空间配置一直是灾害防治和城市安全研究领域的热点问题。本文以城市居民尽快地,尽少拥挤地到达满足容纳需求的应急避难所为目标,整合遥感影像数据、高精度人口分布数据、交通路网数据和专家知识等数据,综合运用智能体模型和多准则决策方法,对城市避难所空间配置开展研究。本文设计了三类与应急疏散相关的智能体：政府智能体、避难所智能体和居民智能体,来实现应急疏散的模拟,并根据模拟结果支持应急避难所的空间选址和配置。选址方法上运用了多准则决策方法和权重敏感性分析,在选址高适宜区域内选定避难所的新建方案。以新的避难所空间布局和配置为条件,执行新一轮的应急疏散模拟过程,实现选址的循环优化,从而获得最终的避难所空间配置方案。本文以上海市静安区的应急避难所空间配置分析为案例,生成了该区域应急避难所的详细空间配置方案,该方案能帮助居民在尽少拥挤风险下尽快疏散到附近的避难所。本文提出的方法充实了中国城市避难所选址的相关理论与可操作性的技术基础,为其他地区开展避难所的配置工作提供借鉴与参考。 相似文献
6.
科学评估避难场所的服务效率是提高城市应急水平的前提。传统对避难场所服务效率的评估多偏重于避难场所空间布局的合理性,缺少对避难者的空间布局和避难行为等避难需求的考虑,这会使评估结果造成偏差,从而容易引起资源配置的低效率。本文构建了多主体模拟模型,模拟避难者灾后对避难场所的选择、奔跑、安置等关键疏散行为过程,量化评估该地区避难场所服务效率。本文对比了两种量化评估指标在同一案例评估的差异性,一种是传统方法中空间可达性(服务半径覆盖率),一种是利用疏散行为模拟计算出的避难成功率;北京市海淀区的实证研究显示两项指标在同一案例区有巨大差异。这一分析结果显示,传统评估仅利用服务半径覆盖率这一指标来分析避难场所布局现状及规划的合理性存在不足。通过避难疏散行为的模拟发现,以下指标的使用有望辅助提高评估的真实性：①避难场所的利用效率。由于设施的利用效率不均衡,会导致避难场所超容或闲置的情况。在充分考虑避难场所的有效服务面积和服务人口的基础上,设计“人均避难面积”等反应利用效率的指标就显得十分必要。②避难标识系统的连通性。避难模拟的实验显示避难标识系统可能对避难者逃生疏散具有分流和引导作用,据此,避难场所与周边居民区的标识系统的连通性也是评价其服务效率的关键指标。 相似文献
7.
A telephone survey of 2,595 households on Long Island, NY provides a data base for analyzing potential spatial behaviors in response to an accident at the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station in Suffolk County. These intended behaviors approximated the actual behaviors of Three Mile Island area residents during the general emergency at that plant in 1979. Using evacuations from natural and other technological hazards as a basis for comparison, we conclude that evacuations in response to nuclear power plant accidents are likely to be characterized by an extreme over-response to limited protective action advisories; this phenomenon needs to be considered in behaviorally-based radiological emergency response planning. 相似文献
8.
Wildfire evacuation trigger points are prominent geographic features (e.g., ridge lines, rivers, and roads) utilized in timing evacuation warnings. When a fire crosses a feature, an evacuation warning is issued to the communities or firefighters in the path of the fire. Current methods for generating trigger buffers have limited utility because the resulting buffers are not explicitly tied to prominent geographic features, making it difficult to visually determine when a fire has breached a trigger point. This work aims to address this limitation by using reverse geocoding to identify prominent geographic trigger points that have more value to emergency managers. The method consists of three steps: 1) generate a trigger buffer using fire-spread modeling; 2) utilize online reverse-geocoding to retrieve geographic features proximal to the buffer boundary; and 3) identify the most prominent geographic features using viewshed analysis and compute the warning time each would offer given predicted fire spread rates to proximal communities. A case study of Julian, California is presented to identify prominent geographic trigger points that may have value to emergency managers in improving the timing of wildfire evacuation warnings in this region. 相似文献
9.
Route selection is a complex issue in simulating the pedestrian’s walking behaviour during the evacuation. In many current studies, the agent-based model has been widely used to simulate the individualized behaviour, and growing concern is given to the cognitive aspects in route selection. However, the influence of incomplete spatial knowledge and the preferences for different routing strategies has not been fully considered. To represent more reliable route choice by different pedestrians, this study presents an individual cognitive evacuation behaviour model which is mainly focusing on the individual differences in routing strategy and spatial knowledge. The model consists of two major components, namely the multiple routing strategies and personalized spatial cognitive road network. Based on a review of the previous studies, the potential factors that may affect the evacuation behaviour were discussed. The quantitative relationships between these potential factors and the pedestrian’s routing preference, as well as the possibilities of recognizing different roads, were explored using the regression method. As a case study, the proposed model was implemented using the data collected from a field survey of a real outdoor event. When applied in an agent-based simulation, the implemented model will support more reliable simulation of route choices corresponding to the pedestrians’ behaviour in the real event. 相似文献
10.
Jia Yu Chuanrong Zhang Jiahong Wen Weidong Li Rui Liu Hui Xu 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(9):1884-1910
The timely and secure evacuation of residents to nearby urban emergency shelters is of great importance during unexpected disaster events. However, evacuation and allocation of shelters are seldom examined as a whole, even though they are usually closely related tasks in disaster management. To conduct better spatial allocation of emergency shelters in cities, this study proposes a new method which integrates techniques of multi-agent system and multi-criteria evaluation for spatial allocation of urban emergency shelters. Compared with the traditional emergency shelter allocation methods, the proposed method highlights the importance of dynamic emergency evacuation simulations for spatial allocation suitability analysis. Three kinds of agents involved in evacuation and sheltering procedures are designed: government agents, shelter agents, and resident agents. Emergency evacuations are simulated based on the interactions of these agents to find potential problems, for example, time-consuming evacuation processes and road congestion. A case study in Jing’an District, Shanghai, China was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. After three rounds of simulation and optimization, new shelters were spatially allocated and a detailed recommended plan of shelters and related facilities was generated. The optimized spatial allocation of shelters may help local residents to be evacuated more quickly and securely. 相似文献
11.
12.
Bimal Kanti Paul 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):401-414
Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007. Despite early cyclone warnings and emergency evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines Sidr victims’ responses to cyclone warnings and evacuation orders, and explores the factors that would explain why the victims did or did not comply with the orders. Based on survey data collected from 277 Sidr survivors living in the four most severely impacted coastal districts, this study found that more than 75 percent of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Sidr's landfall. Despite the efforts of the Bangladesh government, there were lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures. Field data also reveal several reasons cited by respondents for not complying with evacuation orders. Multivariate analyses of survey data show that trust in warning messages was the most important determinant in the decision to seek refuge in safer shelters, followed by distance to nearest shelter and annual level of education. Several recommendations have been made to improve cyclone warnings and the use of public shelters for similar future events. 相似文献
13.
Katrina and Migration: Evacuation and Return by African Americans and Vietnamese Americans in an Eastern New Orleans Suburb 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Wei Li Christopher A. Airriess Angela Chia-Chen Chen Karen J. Leong Verna Keith 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(1):103-118
Hurricane Katrina constitutes the most costly natural as well as technology-induced disaster, in terms of both human suffering and financial loss in the history of the United States. Even years later, it continues to profoundly impact the livelihoods and the mental and physical health of those who have experienced evacuation and return and those who have begun lives anew elsewhere. Our study focuses on these geographical processes associated with the Katrina disaster experiences of African Americans and Vietnamese Americans comprising an overwhelming majority (93.4 percent) of residents in a racially mixed pre-Katrina eastern New Orleans neighborhood. We examine the spatial morphology of routes, volumes, and frequencies of evacuees; their return rates and experiences; and rationales and motivations to return or stay. The conceptual framework is based on the disaster migration, place attachment, and social network literature. Both quantitative and qualitative evidence indicates that the evacuation and return experiences of each minority group substantially differed, especially among African American women, and this was strongly influenced by existing social networks. 相似文献
14.
行政建置变更对海南岛区域文化历史发展的影响研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
一个区域文化的发展除了受历史时期科技发展水平、移民、国家开拓方略等因素的影响外,也因为行政建置的不同而产生很大的不同。不少地方因为长期隶属于同一个行政区,在文化上就表现出非常明显的趋同性。而历史期海南岛区域文化的发展进度则与反映中央王朝重视程度的行政建置的级别、深入岛内实质管理的辖区大小等要素紧密相关。行政建置变更某种程度上已经成为海南岛历史文化发展进程中重要的导向标。在探讨了历史期海南岛行政建置变更对海南岛文化发展带来的影响,以期对海南岛区域文化的生成和发展寻求上层建筑方面的依据。 相似文献
15.
Zlatina Anguelova Douglas A. Stow John Kaiser Philip E. Dennison Tom Cova 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):230-247
Wildfires create a risk to pedestrians traveling through rural areas, because they might not be aware of the presence of a wildfire or its direction and rate of spread until is too late to successfully evacuate. In wildland areas of southern San Diego County, immigrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border and border security agents are particularly at risk to wildfires. The objective of this study is to develop a framework of analysis and associated tools for examining the combined behavior of wildfires and pedestrian mobility to assess the potential threat of fire to pedestrians in wildland areas. Outputs from a geographic information system (GIS) overlay model for determining potentially dangerous fire zones, the Wildland–Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model, and a model of pedestrian mobility in wildland areas were combined to generate wildfire risk to pedestrian maps. The key technical contributions of the study are the development and testing of the pedestrian mobility model and the framework and logic for integrating the results of three GIS-based models. The applied geography contribution is the testing of two scenarios of high risk from wildfires to pedestrians within the U.S.–Mexico border zone of San Diego County, California. The study results show that the travel times calculated by the pedestrian mobility model appear to be realistic and are affected by the terrain and vegetation characteristics of a study site, whereas the evacuation trigger buffers (ETBs) from WUIVAC are mostly influenced by the wind speed and direction parameters of the FlamMap fire spread model. A moderate fire danger to pedestrians in the most remote wildland locations of the study area is determined. The scenario test results suggest that if a wildfire occurs within 2 km (extreme southwesterly winds) or 6 km (extreme northeasterly wind) of pedestrians in the worst case location within the San Diego border region they would likely not have a sufficient amount of time to reach a nearby safety zone. 相似文献
16.
dr. phil. SOFUS CHRISTIANSEN 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):84-88
Christiansen, Sofus: Work and journey to work in subsistence agriculture—a case of cultivation of scattered areas on Rennell Island (Mugaba). Geografisk Tidsskrift 76: 84–88, june 1, 1977. In subsistence agriculture, area and work are usually the most important production factors. Total cultivation work is shown to be greatly increased, if journeying to work is augmented, as when cultivated areas are scattered. Formulae are devised for the increase of total work caused by transport. On Rennell Island (Mugaba) the traditional bisettlement-based cultivation strategy is demonstrated to be a rational means to diminish the journey to work problem. 相似文献
17.
Xiaoyi Ma Ci Song Chenghu Zhou 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(12):2401-2420
In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment. 相似文献
18.
Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches. 相似文献
19.
Stephen A. Royle 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》1997,18(1):89-98
Indonesia is one of the most rapidly developing nations in the world. One important component of its transformation is an industrialisation policy which sees its people utilised by transnational corporations as sources of cheap labour for export goods processing. This has both positive and negative outcomes. This paper explores these issues in a review of Indonesian development strategy with particular reference to Batam Island in Riau Province. 相似文献
20.
利用雷州半岛东部滨海浅层地下水的逐时采样数据,分析潮汐作用下该区浅层地下水水质变化特征,结果表明：1）研究区地下水中主要离子均以Na+和Cl-为主,K+和 CO3 2-的质量浓度则低至可以忽略。其中,东海岛地下水水质较为稳定,各离子不具有明显的相关性,而南渡河和新寮地下水中各离子的变化具有准同步特征。2）南渡河地下水对于土壤的平均碱化危害程度最低,其次是东海岛,新寮地下水对于土壤的平均碱化危害程度最高,且大潮期尤甚。东海岛地下水对土壤的碱化危害程度随潮汐变化不大;南渡河和新寮则表现出大潮期地下水的土壤碱化危害程度大于小潮期的特点,意味着潮动力的增强导致海水入侵强度变大,进而加剧了地下水对土壤的碱化危害。3）就地下水受海水入侵强度而言,东海岛的平均受侵强度最大,但随潮动力变化不大,危害具有常态化特征;新寮地下水大潮期受海水入侵的最大强度高于东海岛,但平均危害则小于后者;南渡河受海水入侵程度最低,部分时段不存在海水入侵情况。4）各监测井地下水中Na+和Cl-具有同源性,是溶解性固体总量（TDS）的主要成分,也是引起TDS 变化的主要原因。就TDS 变化的剧烈程度而言,南渡河的水质波动最为显著,其次是新寮,东海岛水质维持在稳定的水平。5）南渡河和新寮可以通过监测地下水电导率的长期变化间接实现对水体矿化度及Na+和Cl-的长期监测;东海岛则不适合做精确的点监测,但可以考虑进行区间监测。 相似文献