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1.
An algorithm is developed for automated detection of the short-period Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations (frequency band f = 0.2–3 Hz) from the continuous time series of digital recording during 1998–2014 at the midlatitude Borok station. A digital catalog with the indication of time intervals of the presence and main morphological characteristics of Pc1 pulsations is created. Based on this catalog, the annual, seasonal, and diurnal dynamics of the midlatitude Pc1 pulsation activity is studied for 1998–2014. It is shown that the annual variation of the Pc1 occurrence has a maximum in 2005, i.e., at the end of the solar cycle decay phase, just as in the previous cycles. It is found that the minimum of the cases of Pc1 occurrence is observed in 2009, i.e., not at the maximum, just was the case in the previous cycles, but during the deep minimum of solar activity, which testifies to the untypical conditions in the magnetosphere during the unusually long minimum of the 23rd cycle. The seasonal variation of the Pc1 occurrence has a summer minimum when the series of Pc1 pulsations occur almost thrice as rarely as in winter. Besides, there are relatively small maxima at equinox. The diurnal behavior of Pc1 pulsations has the maxima in the morning and midnight sectors of the magnetosphere. By the superposed epoch analysis technique it is established that the maximal number of the cases of occurrence of Pc1 pulsations at the Borok observatory is observed on the fourth day after the global geomagnetic disturbances. The statistical distributions of pulsations amplitude and duration are obtained.  相似文献   

2.
Observations of CO2 concentration at a mountaintop in the Colorado Rockies in summer show a large diurnal variability with minimum CO2 concentrations found between 10:00 and 18:00 MST. Simulations are performed with a mesoscale model to examine the effects of atmospheric structure and large-scale flows on the diurnal variability. In the simulations initialized without large-scale winds, the CO2 minimum occurs earlier compared to the observations. Upslope flows play an important role in the presence of this early (pre-noon) minimum while the timing and magnitude of the minimum depend only weakly on the temperature structure. An increase in large-scale flow has a noticeable impact on the diurnal variability with a more gradual decrease in daytime CO2 concentration, similar to summer-averaged observations. From the idealized simulations and a case study, it is concluded that multi-scale flows and their interactions have a large influence on the observed diurnal variability.  相似文献   

3.
Severe hydrological droughts in the Amazon have generally been associated with strong El Niño events. More than 100 years of stage record at Manaus harbour confirms that minimum water levels generally coincide with intense warming in the tropical Pacific sea waters. During 2005, however, the Amazon experienced a severe drought which was not associated with an El Niño event. Unless what usually occurs during strong El Niño events, when negative rainfall anomalies usually affect central and eastern Amazon drainage basin; rainfall deficiencies in the drought of 2005 were spatially constrained to the west and southwest of the basin. In spite of this, discharge stations at the main‐stem recorded minimum water levels as low as those observed during the basin‐wide 1996–1997 El Niño‐related drought. The analysis of river discharges along the main‐stem and major tributaries during the drought of 2004–2005 revealed that the recession on major tributaries began almost simultaneously. This was not the case in the 1996–1997 drought, when above‐normal contribution of some tributaries for a short period during high water was crucial to partially counterbalance high discharge deficits of the other tributaries. Since time‐lagged contributions of major tributaries are fundamental to damp the extremes in the main‐stem, an almost coincident recession in almost all tributaries caused a rapid decrease in water discharges during the 2005 event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Daily temperature and precipitation data from 136 stations of Southwest China (SWC) during the last five decades, from 1960 to 2007, were analysed to determine the spatial and temporal trends by using the Mann–Kendall trend test. Results show that SWC has become warmer over the last five decades, especially in the recent 20–25 years. The increasing trends in winter months are more significant than those in the months of other seasons, and spatially Tibet, Hengduan mountains area and west Sichuan Plateau have larger temperature trend in magnitude than the other regions have. A downward trend was detected in Sichuan Basin also, but the region with cooler temperature was shrinking due to the statistically significant increasing trend of temperature after 1990s. Both annual and seasonal means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend, but trend magnitude of minimum temperature was larger than that of maximum temperature, resulting in the decrease of diurnal temperature range for SWC in the last 50 years. Annual precipitation showed slightly and statistically insignificant increasing trend, but statistically significant increasing trend has been detected in winter season while autumn witnessed a statistically significant decreasing trend. The results could be a reference for the planning and management of water resources under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

6.
This paper, the first of two, hypothesizes that: (1) the temporal variation of stream power of a river channel at a given station with varying discharge is accomplished by the temporal variation in channel form (flow depth and channel width) and hydraulic variables, including energy slope, flow velocity and friction; (2) the change in stream power is distributed among the changes in flow depth, channel width, flow velocity, slope, and friction, depending on the boundary conditions that the channels has to satisfy. The second hypothesis is a result of the principle of maximum entropy and the theory of minimum energy dissipation or its simplified minimum stream power. These two hypotheses lead to families of at‐a‐station hydraulic geometry relations. The conditions under which these families of relations can occur in the field are discussed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the North‐eastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre‐episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre‐episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variables. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South‐eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess ‘chemically new’ and ‘chemically old’ water sources during acidification episodes. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Average pool spacing between five and seven bankfull widths has been documented in environments throughout the world, but has limited theoretical justification in coarse‐bedded and bedrock environments. Pool formation in coarse‐bedded and bedrock channels has been attributed to bedrock and boulder constrictions. Because the spacing of these constrictions may be irregular in nature, it is difficult to reconcile pool‐formation processes with the supposedly rhythmic spacing of pools and riffles. To address these issues, a simulation model for pool and riffle formation is used to demonstrate that semi‐rhythmic spacing of pools with an approximate spacing of five to seven bankfull widths can be recreated from a random distribution of obstructions and minimum pool‐ and riffle‐length criteria. It is assumed that a pool–riffle couplet will achieve a minimum length based on dominant‐discharge conditions. Values for the minimum‐length assumption are based on field data collected in New England and California, while the theoretical basis relies on the demonstrated hydraulic response of individual pools to elongation. Results from the simulations show that the location of pools can be primarily random in character, but still assume an average spacing between four and eight bankfull widths for a variety of conditions. Field verification data generally support the model but highlight a highly skewed distribution of pool‐forming elements and pool spacing. The relation between pool spacing and bankfull widths is attributed to the common geometric response of these features to dominant‐discharge conditions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Interaction between groundwater and surface water in watersheds has significant impacts on water management and water rights, nutrient loading from aquifers to streams, and in‐stream flow requirements for aquatic species. Of particular importance are the spatial patterns of these interactions. This study explores the spatio‐temporal patterns of groundwater discharge to a river system in a semi‐arid region, with methods applied to the Sprague River Watershed (4100 km2) within the Upper Klamath Basin in Oregon, USA. Patterns of groundwater–surface water interaction are explored throughout the watershed during the 1970–2003 time period using a coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW model tested against streamflow, groundwater level and field‐estimated reach‐specific groundwater discharge rates. Daily time steps and coupling are used, with groundwater discharge rates calculated for each model computational point along the stream. Model results also are averaged by month and by year to determine seasonal and decadal trends in groundwater discharge rates. Results show high spatial variability in groundwater discharge, with several locations showing no groundwater/surface water interaction. Average annual groundwater discharge is 20.5 m3/s, with maximum and minimum rates occurring in September–October and March–April, respectively. Annual average rates increase by approximately 0.02 m3/s per year over the 34‐year period, negligible compared with the average annual rate, although 70% of the stream network experiences an increase in groundwater discharge rate between 1970 and 2003. Results can assist with water management, identifying potential locations of heavy nutrient mass loading from the aquifer to streams and ecological assessment and planning focused on locations of high groundwater discharge. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
To make a long-term prediction of the solar cycle in a standard way (GOST 25645.302-83), it is necessary to know the instant of the activity minimum onset, the determination of which is difficult during the decline stage of the previous cycle. The dependence of the long-term prediction error on the time of shift (t) relative to the solar activity minimum instant (i.e., the situation when a certain time before the minimum onset, rather than the time of this minimum, is the initial point of calculations) has been studied. It has been indicated that one should not know the exact time of the activity minimum onset in order to make prediction according to GOST, and such a prediction can be performed with an approximately identical error if the lead time is t ～ 1 year and more relative to the activity minimum onset. An analysis of the dependence of prognostic W max values on t for cycles 18–23 indicated that prognostic W max values are overestimated at small (to ～ 1 year) uncertainties in the time of activity minimum onset. It has been obtained that W max = 96 ± 13 for cycle 24 on the assumption that this cycle began in April 2007.  相似文献   

11.
Many landslides are triggered by rainfall. Previous studies of the relationship between landslides and rainfall have concentrated on deriving minimum rainfall thresholds that are likely to trigger landslides. Though useful, these minimum thresholds derived from a log–log plot do not offer any measure of confidence in a landslide monitoring or warning system. This study presents a new and innovative method for incorporating rainfall into landslide modelling and prediction. The method involves three steps: compiling radar reflectivity data in a QPESUMS (quantitative precipitation estimation and segregation using multiple sensors) system during a typhoon (tropical hurricane) event, estimating rainfall from radar data and using rainfall intensity and rainfall duration as explanatory variables to develop a landslide logit model. Given the logit model, this paper discusses ways in which the model can be used for computing probabilities of landslide occurrence for a real‐time monitoring system or a warning system, and for delineating and mapping landslides. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Fifty-one magnetic storms occurred during the last solar half-cycle of transition from the epoch minimum to the epoch maximum are considered. Ionospheric (foF2) and magnetic (X component) data from Sodankyla observatory, Finland, were used for the analysis, as well as values of the ΣKp indices of magnetic activity. The dependence of variations in the critical frequency foF2 was studied before, during, and after each storm. It has been revealed that a major effect (ME) takes place for all of the storms analyzed. It consists in the following: the first maximum in foF2 values occurs several days before the onset of the active phase of a storm, then foF2 attains its minimum during the active phase, and the second maximum occurred after the active phase. Five principals, the most frequent types of variation in foF2 during a storm, have been revealed. However, special cases (30%) in which an ME exists but shifts rightward several days along the time axis are observable. Ionospheric “memory” (inertia) from 8–9 h to 2 days has been revealed. It has been ascertained that the occurrence of the first ME maximum can be considered a magnetic storm precursor. Such a precursor potentially can be used for forecasting the beginning of magnetic storm development, which is important for space weather problems.  相似文献   

13.
Many of the existing stream–aquifer interaction models available in the literature are very complex with limited applicability in semi‐gauged and ungauged catchments. In this study, to estimate the influent and effluent subsurface water fluxes under limited geo‐hydrometeorological data availability conditions, a simple stream–aquifer interaction model, namely, the variable parameter McCarthy–Muskingum (VPMM) hillslope‐storage Boussinesq (hsB) model, has been developed. This novel model couples the VPMM streamflow transport with the hsB groundwater flow transport modules in online mode. In this integrated model, the surface water–groundwater flux exchange process is modelled by the Darcian approach with the variable hydraulic heads between the river stage and groundwater table accounting for the rainfall forcing. Considering the exchange fluxes in the hyporheic zone and lateral overland flow contribution, this approach is field tested in a typical 48‐km stretch of the Brahmani River in eastern India to simulate the streamflow and its depth with the minimum Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 94% and 88%; the maximum root mean square error of 134 m3/s and 0.35 m; and the minimum index of agreement of 98% and 97%, respectively. This modelling approach could be very well utilized in data‐scarce world‐river basins to estimate the stream–aquifer exchange flux due to rainfall forcings.  相似文献   

14.
Estimation of low flows in rivers continues to be a vexing problem despite advances in statistical and process‐based hydrological models. We develop a method to estimate minimum streamflow at seasonal to annual timescales from measured streamflow based on regional similarity in the deviations of daily streamflow from minimum streamflow for a period of interest. The method is applied to 1,019 gauged sites in the Western United States for June to December 2015. The gauges were clustered into six regions with distinct timing and magnitude of low flows. A gamma distribution was fit each day to the deviations in specific discharge (daily streamflow divided by drainage area) from minimum specific discharge for gauges in each region. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test identified days when the gamma distribution was adequate to represent the distribution of deviations in a region. The performance of the gamma distribution was evaluated at gauges by comparing daily estimates of minimum streamflow with estimates from area‐based regression relations for minimum streamflow. Each region had at least 8 days during the period when streamflow measurements would provide better estimates than the regional regression equation, but the number of such days varied by region depending on aridity and homogeneity of streamflow within the region. Synoptic streamflow measurements at ungauged sites have value for estimating minimum streamflow and improving the spatial resolution of hydrological model in regions with streamflow‐gauging networks.  相似文献   

15.
The electron density profiles retrieved from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) satellite Radio Occultation (RO) observations during 2008 are used to derive ionospheric upper transition height, where the density of O+ is equal to that of light ions (mainly H+ and He+). It is found that the ionosphere upper transition height is very low, with significant local time, latitude and seasonal variations, during the extremely low solar minimum of 2008. The transition height is higher in the daytime than at night, except over middle latitude region of winter hemisphere, where the transition height has minimum in the morning. There is a pronounced peak over equator for all seasons. The transition height is higher in summer than in winter hemisphere. Our results have comparability with C/NOFS satellite observations around the equatorial region during June–August of 2008. However, the IRI model gives much higher transition height than those from COSMIC and cannot reproduce its latitude and season variations well during 2008.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
Shallow crustal magma reservoirs beneath the summit of Kilauea Volcano and within its rift zones are linked in such a way that the magma supply to each can be estimated from the rate of ground deformation at the volcano's summit. Our model builds on the well-documented pattern of summit inflation as magma accumulates in a shallow summit reservoir, followed by deflation as magma is discharged to the surface or into the rift zones. Magma supply to the summit reservoir is thus proportional to summit uplift, and supply to the rift zones is proportional to summit subsidence; the average proportionality constant is 0.33 × 106 m3/γrad. This model yields minimum supply estimates because it does not account for magma which escapes detection by moving passively through the summit reservoir or directly into the rift zones.Calculations suggest that magma was supplied to Kilauea during July 1956– April 1983 at a minimum average rate of 7.2 × 106 m3/month. Roughly 35% of the net supply was extruded; the rest remains stored within the volcano's east rift zone (55%) and southwest rift zone (10%). Periods of relatively rapid supply were associated with the large Kapoho eruption in 1960 and the sustained Mauna Ulu eruptions in 1969–1971 and 1972–1974. Bursts of harmonic tremor from the mantle beneath Kilauea were also unusually energetic during 1968–1975, suggesting a close link between Kilauea's deep magma supply region and shallow storage reservoirs. It remains unclear whether pulses in magma supply from depth give rise to corresponding increases in shallow supply, or if instead unloading of a delicately balanced magma transport system during large eruptions or intrusions triggers more rapid ascent from a relatively constant mantle source.  相似文献   

18.
The outrigger system is an effective means of controlling the seismic response of core‐tube type tall buildings by mobilizing the axial stiffness of the perimeter columns. This study investigates the damped‐outrigger, incorporating the buckling‐restrained brace (BRB) as energy dissipation device (BRB‐outrigger system). The building's seismic responses are expected to be effectively reduced because of the high BRB elastic stiffness during minor earthquakes and through the stable energy dissipation mechanism of the BRB during large earthquakes. The seismic behavior of the BRB‐outrigger system was investigated by performing a spectral analysis considering the equivalent damping to incorporate the effects of BRB inelastic deformation. Nonlinear response history analyses were performed to verify the spectral analysis results. The analytical models with building heights of 64, 128, and 256 m were utilized to investigate the optimal outrigger elevation and the relationships between the outrigger truss flexural stiffness, BRB axial stiffness, and perimeter column axial stiffness to achieve the minimum roof drift and acceleration responses. The method of determining the BRB yield deformation and its effect on overall seismic performance were also investigated. The study concludes with a design recommendation for the single BRB‐outrigger system.  相似文献   

19.
In cities and urban areas, building structures located at close proximities inevitably interact under dynamic loading by direct pounding and indirectly through the underlying soil. Majority of the previous adjacent building pounding studies that have taken the structure–soil–structure interaction (SSSI) problem into account have used simple lumped mass–spring–dashpot models under plane strain conditions. In this research, the problem of SSSI‐included pounding problem of two adjacent symmetric in plan buildings resting on a soft soil profile excited by uniaxial earthquake loadings is investigated. To this end, a series of SSSI models considering one‐directional nonlinear impact elements between adjacent co‐planar stories and using a method for direct finite element modeling of 3D inelastic underlying soil volume has been developed to accurately study the problem. An advanced inelastic structural behavior parameter, the seismic damage index, has been considered in this study as the key nonlinear structural response of adjacent buildings. Based on the results of SSSI and fixed base case analyses presented herein, two main problems are investigated, namely, the minimum building separation distance for pounding prevention and seismic pounding effects on structural damage in adjacent buildings. The final results show that at least three times, the International Building Code 2009 minimum distance for building separation recommended value is required as a clear distance for adjacent symmetric buildings to prevent the occurrence of seismic pounding. At the International Building Code‐recommended distance, adjacent buildings experienced severe seismic pounding and therefore significant variations in storey shear forces and damage indices. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.  相似文献   

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