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1.
The paper reports the results of the analysis of the 14 longest precipitation instrumental series, covering the last 300 years, that have been recovered in six subareas of the Western Mediterranean basin, i.e., Portugal, Northern and Southern Spain, Southern France, Northern and Southern Italy. This study extends back by one century our knowledge about the instrumental precipitation over the Western Mediterranean, and by two centuries in some specific subareas. All the time series show repeated swings. No specific trends have been found over the whole period, except in a few cases, but with modest time changes and sometimes having opposite tendency. The same can be said for the most recent decades although with some more marked departures from the average. The correlation between the various Mediterranean subareas is generally not significant, or almost uncorrelated. The Wavelet Spectral Analysis applied to the precipitation identifies only a minor 56-year cycle in autumn, i.e., the same return period that has been found in literature for the Sea Surface Temperature over North Atlantic. A comparison with a gridded dataset reconstruction based on mixed multiproxy and instrumental observations, shows that the grid reconstruction is in good agreement with the observed data for the period after 1900, less for the previous period.  相似文献   

2.
Trends of Minimum and Maximum Daily Temperatures in Italy from 1865 to 1996   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
Summary Annual and seasonal changes in maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and in daily temperature range (DTR) in Italy are investigated. Monthly average series for northern and southern Italy are analysed for evidence of trend. Tmax and Tmin show a positive trend over the period 1865–1996 which is greater in southern Italy than in northern Italy. DTR shows a positive trend, but greater in the North than in the South. There is a positive correlation between DTR and mean monthly temperature especially in spring and in summer, while there is a high significant negative correlation between DTR and monthly precipitation. Analysis of temperature, precipitation and DTR during the period 1865–1996 suggests that a general relationship between the very warm last 15–20 years and an increase in the frequency of sub-tropical anticyclones over the Central-Western Mediterranean. This relationship is based on the hypothesis that in Italy more frequent sub-tropical anticyclones could have been the most characteristic feature of the warm periods during the last 130 years. Received June 4, 1999 Revised November 2, 1999  相似文献   

3.
Summary This paper deals with the surface pressure covariability over the Altantic/European sector of the Northern Hemisphere, using monthly grid point data for the 100 year period 1890–1989. Factor analysis is applied to 90 grid point time series for January, February, July, and August. The initial 90 pressure variables can be reduced to 7–8 factors in winter and 10 in summer. A winter teleconnection was identified, known as the seesaw phenomenon, between the Icelandic low and the Azores subtropical anticyclone. In order to define the centers of action for temperature, winter precipitation and summer northerly wind frequency (etesian days) in Athens and in the Aegean sea, the variability of the factor scores and of these weather elements is compared. It is shown that the center of action for temperature in Athens is found to be in north and northwest Europe (centered over southern Scandinavia). For winter precipitation, the center of action is located in the west and southwest Mediterranean and northwest Africa. Finally, for the etesian winds frequency variability, this center of action is found over the northern Adriatic and northern former Yugoslavia, while there is no evidence of influence by the southwest Asia thermal low.With 12 Figures  相似文献   

4.
The paper reports the main results of the EU project Millennium in the Mediterranean area over the last 500 years. It analyses a long series of temperature from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece. The series are obtained by combining indices from documentary sources from AD 1500 to the onset of regular instrumental observations. There is an ongoing discussion regarding the proper way of combining documentary and instrumental data and how to translate accurately the conventional indices from ??3 to +?3 into modern units, i.e. degree Celsius. This paper produces for the first time a number of early instrumental observations, in some cases (i.e. Italy and France) covering 350 years, including thereby the earliest regular observations after the invention of the thermometer. These Mediterranean data show that anomalous temperatures usually had only a locally limited effect, while only few extreme events had a widespread impact over the whole region, such as the summer of 2003. During the period from 1850 to the present day, the Mediterranean temperature anomaly was close to the Northern Hemisphere in spring and summer, while it was warmer in autumn and winter. Compared with the long-term instrumental records (i.e. 1655 onwards), the recent warming has not exceeded the natural past variability characterized by heating–cooling cycles with no significant long-term trends.  相似文献   

5.
Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.  相似文献   

6.
Mediterranean basins can be impacted by severe floods caused by extreme rainfall, and there is a growing awareness about the possible increase in these heavy rainfall events due to climate change. In this study, the climate change impacts on extreme daily precipitation in 102 catchments covering the whole Mediterranean basin are investigated using nonstationary extreme value model applied to annual maximum precipitation in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Euro-CORDEX experiment. Results indicate contrasted trends, with significant increasing trends in Northern catchments and conversely decreasing trends in Southern catchments. For most cases, the time of signal emergence for these trends is before the year 2000. The same spatial pattern is obtained under the two climate scenarios considered (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and in most RCM simulations, suggesting a robust climate change signal. The strongest multi-model agreement concerns the positive trends, which can exceed +?20% by the end of the twenty-first century in some simulations, impacting South France, North Italy, and the Balkans. For these areas, society-relevant strong impacts of such Mediterranean extreme precipitation changes could be expected in particular concerning flood-related damages.  相似文献   

7.
Climate models predict substantial summer precipitation reductions in Europe and the Mediterranean region in the twenty-first century, but the extent to which these models correctly represent the mechanisms of summertime precipitation in this region is uncertain. Here an analysis is conducted to compare the observed and simulated impacts of the dominant large-scale driver of summer rainfall variability in Europe and the Mediterranean, the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The SNAO is defined as the leading mode of July–August sea level pressure variability in the North Atlantic sector. Although the SNAO is weaker and confined to northern latitudes compared to its winter counterpart, with a southern lobe located over the UK, it significantly affects precipitation in the Mediterranean, particularly Italy and the Balkans (correlations of up to 0.6). During high SNAO summers, when strong anticyclonic conditions and suppressed precipitation prevail over the UK, the Mediterranean region instead is anomalously wet. This enhanced precipitation is related to the presence of a strong upper-level trough over the Balkans—part of a hemispheric pattern of anomalies that develops in association with the SNAO—that leads to mid-level cooling and increased potential instability. Neither this downstream extension nor the surface influence of the SNAO is captured in the two CMIP3 models examined (HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1), with weak or non-existent correlations between the SNAO and Mediterranean precipitation. Because these models also predict a strong upward SNAO trend in the future, the error in their representation of the SNAO surface signature impacts the projected precipitation trends. In particular, the attendant increase in precipitation that, based on observations, should occur in the Mediterranean and offset some of the non-SNAO related drying does not occur. Furthermore, the fact that neither the observed SNAO nor summer precipitation in Europe/Mediterranean region exhibits any significant trend so far (for either the full century or the recent half of the record) does not increase our confidence in these model projections.  相似文献   

8.
Mediterranean warming is especially due to summer season   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
We created a new homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature data set (1955–2007) for the central Mediterranean area of Tuscany (Italy). Yearly and seasonal long-term trends of some climatic and extreme climatic indices were investigated. The results highlighted a positive trend for mean temperature of about 0.9°C per 50 years with a slightly more pronounced increase in maximum temperature. Seasonal analysis revealed a by far much greater increase in summer (June, July, August) and spring (March, April, May) temperature in respect of autumn and winter, this finding consistent with most recent Mediterranean evidences. Warm extremes showed an overall tendency to increase, while a slight not significant decrease trend was found in regard to frost days and cold extremes. Comparisons with different patterns of Mediterranean warming confirmed the magnitude of recent very fast rise in temperature, especially during summer. This change could be due to last decades modifications of general circulation patterns and land–temperature, land–precipitation positive feedback processes dependent from soil moisture. All these results confirm that the Mediterranean is a region especially responsive and thus very vulnerable to climate change.  相似文献   

9.
The series of rainfall at Padova, Italy, for the years 1725–1981, is among the longest in the world. This paper concerns itself with both the history and analysis of the data: in fact operational procedures, rain gauges, sites and data quality have been carefully investigated since the beginning of the series and are herewith described. Afterwards, seasonal variations, trends, periodicities, vacillations and recurrence intervals of the frequency, precipitation amount and intensity of the monthly totals are discussed. From this analysis, the seasonal variation and a secular trend are well evident; the periodicities are generally modest and not well defined; the vacillations appear to be recurrent through-out the entire series. In conclusion, the analysis of this long series may be a useful tool not only for helping in the practical utilization of the rainfall, but also for gaining an insight into the possible mechanisms of climatic fluctuations.  相似文献   

10.
Several studies demonstrate that North Atlantic Oscillation influences variability of climate over Middle East. We use the centers of action approach for the study of winter rainfall variability over Middle East, taking into account variations in the components of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Azores High and the Icelandic Low pressure systems. The results show there is a negative relation between the interannual variations of winter rainfall over Middle East and Azores High pressure. The east–west shifts of Indian Ocean high pressure has also impact on precipitation over Middle East, there being more precipitation when the Indian Ocean High shifts eastward versus when it is westward. We present a regression model for Middle East precipitation in which the Azores High pressure and the Indian Ocean High longitude are independent variables and it explains 40 % of the variance of precipitation during 1952–2002. Furthermore, the ongoing decrease in winter precipitation over the Middle East is attributed to the increasing pressure of the Azores High over the same period.  相似文献   

11.
We analyze droughts in the Czech Republic from 1881–2006 based on the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and the Z-index using averaged national temperature and precipitation series for the calculations. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), PDSI and Z-index series show an increasing tendency towards longer and more intensive dry episodes in which, for example, droughts that occurred in the mid-1930s, late 1940s–early 1950s, late 1980s–early 1990s and early 2000s were the most severe. Cycles at periods of 3.4–3.5, 4.2–4.3, 5.0–5.1 and 15.4 years exceeded 95% confidence levels in application of maximum entropy spectral analysis. These are expressed at different intensities throughout the period studied. The occurrence of extremely dry and severely dry months is associated with a higher frequency of anticyclonic situations according to the classification employed by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Principal component analysis documents the importance of the ridge from the Siberian High over Central Europe when extreme and severe droughts in months of the winter half-year are considered in terms of sea-level pressure. In the summer half-year, the ridge of the Azores High over Central Europe is the most important. Drought episodes have a profound effect on national and regional agricultural production, with yields being consistently lower than in normal years, as is documented through the example of spring barley, winter wheat, forage crops on arable land, and hay from meadows. Seasons with pronounced drought during the April–June period (e.g., 1947 and 2000) show the most significant yield decreases. Forests appear to be very vulnerable to long-term drought episodes, as it was the case during the dry years of 1992–1994. This study clearly confirms the statistically significant tendency to more intensive dry episodes in the region, driven by temperature increase and precipitation decrease, which has already been suggested in other studies.  相似文献   

12.
Alpine and Mediterranean areas are undergoing a profound change in the typology and distribution of rainfall. In particular, there has been an increase in consecutive non-rainy days, and an escalation of extreme rainy events. The climatic characteristic of extreme precipitations over short-term intervals is an object of study in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, the second largest freshwater basin in Italy (located in the north-west of the country) and an important resource for tourism, fishing and commercial flower growing. The historical extreme rainfall series with high-resolution from 5 to 45 min and above: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h collected at different gauges located at representative sites in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, have been computed to perform regional frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation based on the L-moments approach, and to produce growth curves for different return-period rainfall events. Because of different rainfall-generating mechanisms in the watershed of Lake Maggiore such as elevation, no single parent distribution could be found for the entire study area. This paper concerns an investigation designed to give a first view of the temporal change and evolution of annual maxima precipitation, focusing particularly on both heavy and extreme events recorded at time intervals ranging from few minutes to 24 h and also to create and develop an extreme storm precipitation database, starting from historical sub-daily precipitation series distributed over the territory. There have been two-part changes in extreme rainfall events occurrence in the last 23 years from 1987 to 2009. Little change is observed in 720 min and 24-h precipitations, but the change seen in 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60, 120, 180 and 360 min events is significant. In fact, during the 2000s, growth curves have flattened and annual maxima have decreased.  相似文献   

13.
A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.  相似文献   

14.
Indian monsoon is the most prominent of the world’s monsoon systems which primarily affects synoptic patterns of India and adjacent countries such as Iran in interaction with large-scale weather systems. In this article, the relationship between the withdrawal date of the Indian monsoon and the onset of fall precipitation in Iran has been studied. Data included annual time series of withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon prepared by the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology, and time series of the first date of 25 mm accumulated precipitation over Iran’s synoptic weather stations in a 10-day period which is the basis for the cultivation date. Both time series were considered in Julian calendar with the starting date on August 1. The studied period is 1960–2014 which covers 55 years of data from 36 meteorological stations in Iran. By classifying the withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon in three stages of late, normal, and early withdrawals, its relation with the onset of fall precipitation in western, southwestern, southern, eastern, central, and northern regions of Iran was studied. Results demonstrated that in four out of the six mentioned regions, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon postpones the onset of fall precipitation over Iran. No significant relation was found between the onset of fall precipitation in central region of Iran and the monsoon’s withdrawal date. In the western, southwestern, southern, and eastern regions of Iran, the late monsoon delays the onset of fall’s precipitation; while in the south Caspian Sea coastal area, it causes the early onset of autumnal precipitation. The lag in onset of fall precipitation in Iran which is coordinated with the late withdrawal of monsoon is accompanied with prolonged subtropical high settling over Iran’s plateau that prevents the southward movement of polar jet frontal systems. Such conditions enhance northerly wind currents over the Caspian Sea which, in turn, increase the precipitation in Caspian coastal provinces, which has a different behavior from the overall response of Iran’s climate to the late withdrawal of monsoon. In the phase of early monsoon withdrawal, the subtropical jet is located at the 200 hPa level in 32.5° north latitude; compared with the late withdrawal date, it shows a 2° southward movement. Additionally, the 500 hPa trough is also located in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the MSL pressure anomaly is between ? 4 to ? 7 hPa. The Mediterranean trough in the late withdrawal phase is located in its central zones. It seems that the lack of significant correlation between late withdrawal date of Indian monsoon and late fall’s precipitation onset in the central region of Iran depends on three reasons:1. Lack of adequate weather stations in central region of Iran.2. Precipitation standard deviations over arid and warm regions are high.3. Central flat region of Iran without any source of humidity is located to the lee side of Zagros mountain range. So intensification or development of frontal systems is almost prohibited over there.  相似文献   

15.
Using monthly independently reconstructed gridded European fields for the 500 hPa geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation covering the last 235 years we investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of these key climate variables and assess the leading combined patterns of climate variability. Seasonal European temperatures show a positive trend mainly over the last 40 years with absolute highest values since 1766. Precipitation indicates no clear trend. Spatial correlation technique reveals that winter, spring, and autumn covariability between European temperature and precipitation is mainly influenced by advective processes, whereas during summer convection plays the dominant role. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is applied to the combined fields of pressure, temperature, and precipitation. The dominant patterns of climate variability for winter, spring, and autumn resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation and show a distinct positive trend during the past 40 years for winter and spring. A positive trend is also detected for summer pattern 2, which reflects an increased influence of the Azores High towards central Europe and the Mediterranean coinciding with warm and dry conditions. The question to which extent these recent trends in European climate patterns can be explained by internal variability or are a result of radiative forcing is answered using cross wavelets on an annual basis. Natural radiative forcing (solar and volcanic) has no imprint on annual European climate patterns. Connections to CO2 forcing are only detected at the margins of the wavelets where edge effects are apparent and hence one has to be cautious in a further interpretation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

16.
The areas of the Iberian Peninsula with Mediterranean climate are characterised by rainfall irregularity. Standard statistical estimation methods provide a limited insight of all the dimensions of such irregularity. Based on different techniques to describe the inter-annual irregularity of rainfall, the authors develop a new method: the disparity indices. These indices are then applied to several historical rainfall series (dating from the end of the nineteenth century up to the present) from the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Similar rainfall irregularity patterns are found in all weather stations in the studied area, confirming their belonging to the same climatic region. The results indicate a relative stability during the first third of the twentieth century, coinciding with a period of low precipitation and a progressive increase during the last three decades. The use of a new index named specific disparity index has proven be useful in highlighting the irregularity within the rainfall series at each meteorological station. This new index could contribute to monitor future changes in precipitation within the general framework of research on climate change. Although Mediterranean ecosystems are adapted to important fluctuations in the rainfall regime, this increase in irregularity may affect rivers, wetlands and the hygrophytic vegetation.  相似文献   

17.
The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.  相似文献   

18.
21st century climate change in the Middle East   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
This study examined the performance and future predictions for the Middle East produced by 18 global climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 emissions scenario the models predict an overall temperature increase of ~1.4 K by mid-century, increasing to almost 4 K by late-century for the Middle East. In terms of precipitation the southernmost portion of the domain experiences a small increase in precipitation due to the Northward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The largest change however is a decrease in precipitation that occurs in an area covering the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Syria, Northern Iraq, Northeastern Iran and the Caucasus caused by a decrease in storm track activity over the Eastern Mediterranean. Other changes likely to impact the region include a decrease of over 170,000 km2 in viable rainfed agriculture land by late-century, increases in the length of the dry season that reduces the length of time that the rangelands can be grazed, and changes in the timing of the maximum precipitation in Northern Iran that will impact the growing season, forcing changes in cropping strategy or even crop types.  相似文献   

19.
A procedure for classifying daily summer temperature extremes in northeastern Spain into homogenous regions has been presented and evaluated. This procedure employed daily temperature series from a dense network of 128 weather stations spanning the period from 1960 to 2006. Characteristics of temperature extremes included temperature frequency (e.g., warm days), intensity (e.g., warmest day), and duration (e.g., maximum length of hot spell). Following the results of the principal components analysis and Ward's method of clustering, the study area was divided into four homogenous sub-regions in terms of both the geographic and climatic meanings: the Mediterranean region, the mainland and the Cantabrian region, the moderately elevated areas westward and southward, and the mountainous region. Based on an internal cluster validation measure (Silhouette width), the quality of clustering was evaluated and ensured. The temporal evolution of the long-term (1960–2006) temperature extremes clearly showed a different behavior amongst these sub-regions. The Mediterranean and the highly elevated regions revealed the strongest signals in both daytime and nighttime extremes. For mainland areas, considerable differences in the behavior of the daytime and nighttime temperature extremes were evident. The influence of atmospheric circulation on spatial and temporal variability of temperature extremes was also explored. The variability of summer temperature extremes in NE Spain appears to be mainly driven by the Scandinavian (SCA), the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO), and the East Atlantic (EA) patterns, with a tendency toward increasing during the positive (negative) phases of the EA (WeMO and SCA) circulation modes. In such a region with complex geography and climate, regionalization of summer temperature extremes can be advantageous for extracting finer-scale information, which may prove useful for the vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies in areas such as health, ecosystems and agriculture.  相似文献   

20.
A standard principal component analysis has been performed over the Mediterranean and over the larger European region on monthly precipitation anomalies for the winters between 1979 and 1995. The main centres of action of the associated EOFs are very similar for the two regions and the two sets of PCs are highly correlated with each other. Focusing on the Mediterranean region, the same analysis has been performed using 500?hPa geopotential height monthly anomalies taken from the operational NCEP analysis. Comparing the two sets of PCs associated with upper-air and surface data, a strong correlation has been found suggesting the presence of a two-way link between regional precipitation patterns and large-scale circulation anomalies. For both fields, the largest fraction of variance is explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation, while smaller but still substantial fractions are explained by other known patterns of large-scale variability such as the Eastern Atlantic pattern and the Euro-Atlantic blocking. No detectable connection has been found between Mediterranean precipitation patterns and El Niño SST anomalies during winter. With respect to temporal variability, significant trends have been found over most European areas during the winters considered. The associated pattern is characterised by a substantial increase of precipitation over western Scandinavia and a general decrease over southern Europe. This result is confirmed by analysing data from stations located in northern Italy.  相似文献   

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