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1.
Martin Weiss 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):229-231
Abstract This article provides a first-cut estimate of the potential impacts of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the power sector of non-Annex 1 countries. We construct four illustrative CDM regimes that represent a range of approaches under consideration within the climate community. We examine the impact of these CDM regimes on investments in new generation, under illustrative carbon trading prices of US$ 10 and 100/t C. In the cases that are most conducive to CDM activity, roughly 94% of new generation investments remains identical to the without-CDM situation, with only 6% shifting from higher to lower carbon intensity technologies.We estimate that the CDM would bolster renewable energy generation by as little as 15% at US$ 10/t C, or as much as 300% at US$ 100/t C. A striking finding comes from our examination of the potential magnitude of the “free-rider” problem, i.e. crediting of activities that will occur even in the absence of the CDM. The CDM is intended to be globally carbon-neutral—a project reduces emissions in the host country but generates credits that increase emissions in the investor country. However, to the extent that unwarranted credits are awarded to non-additional projects, the CDM would increase global carbon emissions above the without-CDM emissions level. Under two of the CDM regimes considered, cumulative free-riders credits total 250–600 MtC through the end of the first budget period in 2012. This represents 10–23% of the likely OECD emissions reduction requirement during the first budget period. Since such a magnitude of free-rider credits from non-additional CDM projects could threaten the environmental integrity of the Kyoto protocol, it is imperative that policy makers devise CDM rules that encourage legitimate projects, while effectively screening out non-additional activities. 相似文献
2.
Kyung-Min Nam Caleb J. Waugh Sergey Paltsev John M. Reilly Valerie J. Karplus 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1648-1661
Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan, China proposes to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO2 emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Plan, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China's SO2 and NOx emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO2 emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO2 intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the near term pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately. 相似文献
3.
Previous attempts to estimate the supply of greenhouse gas emission reductions from reduced emissions from deforestation (RED) have generally failed to incorporate policy developments, country-specific abilities and political willingness to supply offsets for developed countries’ emissions. To address this, we estimate policy-appropriate projections of creditable emission reductions from RED. Two global forest carbon models are used to examine major assumptions affecting the generation of credits. The results show that the estimated feasible supply of RED credits is significantly below the biophysical mitigation potential from deforestation. A literature review identified an annual RED emission reduction potential between 1.6 and 4.3 Gt CO2e. Feasible RED supply estimates applying the OSIRIS model were 1.74 Gt CO2e annually between 2011 and 2020, with a cumulative supply of 17.4 Gt CO2e under an ‘own-efforts’ scenario. Estimates from the Forest Carbon Index were very low at $5/t CO2e with 8 million tonne CO2e annually, rising to 1.8 Gt CO2e at $20/t CO2e. Cumulative abatement between 2011 and 2020 was 9 billion Gt CO2e ($20/t CO2e). These volumes were lower, sometimes dramatically, at prices of $5/t CO2e suggesting a non-linear supply of credits in relation to price at a low payment level. For policy makers, the results suggest that inclusion of RED in a climate framework increases abatement potential, although significant constraints are imposed by political and technical issues. 相似文献
4.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(2):229-249
This article provides a first-cut estimate of the potential impacts of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the power sector of non-Annex 1 countries. We construct four illustrative CDM regimes that represent a range of approaches under consideration within the climate community. We examine the impact of these CDM regimes on investments in new generation, under illustrative carbon trading prices of US$ 10 and 100/t C. In the cases that are most conducive to CDM activity, roughly 94% of new generation investments remains identical to the without-CDM situation, with only 6% shifting from higher to lower carbon intensity technologies. We estimate that the CDM would bolster renewable energy generation by as little as 15% at US$ 10/t C, or as much as 300% at US$ 100/t C.A striking finding comes from our examination of the potential magnitude of the “free-rider” problem, i.e. crediting of activities that will occur even in the absence of the CDM. The CDM is intended to be globally carbon-neutral — a project reduces emissions in the host country but generates credits that increase emissions in the investor country. However, to the extent that unwarranted credits are awarded to non-additional projects, the CDM would increase global carbon emissions above the without-CDM emissions level. Under two of the CDM regimes considered, cumulative free-riders credits total 250–600 Mt C through the end of the first budget period in 2012. This represents 10–23% of the likely OECD emissions reduction requirement during the first budget period. Since such a magnitude of free-rider credits from non-additional CDM projects could threaten the environmental integrity of the Kyoto protocol, it is imperative that policy makers devise CDM rules that encourage legitimate projects, while effectively screening out non-additional activities. 相似文献
5.
Katharine Hayhoe Haroon S. Kheshgi Atul K. Jain Donald J. Wuebbles 《Climatic change》2002,54(1-2):107-139
Substitution of natural gas for coal is one means of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, natural gas and coal use also results in emissions of other radiatively active substances including methane (CH4), sulfur dioxide (SO2), a sulfate aerosolprecursor, and black carbon (BC) particles. Will switching from coal to gas reduce the net impact of fossil fuel use on global climate? Using the electric utility sector as an example, changes in emissions of CO2, CH4,SO2 and BC resulting from the replacement of coal by natural gas are evaluated, and their modeled net effect on global mean-annual temperature calculated. Coal-to-gas substitution initially produces higher temperatures relative to continued coal use. This warming is due to reduced SO2 emissionsand possible increases in CH4 emissions, and can last from 1 to 30years, depending on the sulfur controls assumed. This is followed by a net decrease in temperature relative to continued coal use, resulting from lower emissions of CO2 and BC. The length of this period and the extent of the warming or cooling expected from coal-to-gas substitution is found to depend on key uncertainties and characteristics of the substitutions, especially those related to: (1) SO2 emissions and consequentsulphate aerosol forcing; and (2) the relative efficiencies of the power plantsinvolved in the switch. 相似文献
6.
Xuechun LUO Xiao TANG Haoyue WANG Lei KONG Huangjian WU Weiguo WANG Yating SONG Hongyan LUO Yao WANG Jiang ZHU Zifa WANG 《大气科学进展》2023,40(4):601-618
In recent years, China has implemented several measures to improve air quality. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is one area that has suffered from the most serious air pollution in China and has undergone huge changes in air quality in the past few years. How to scientifically assess these change processes remain the key issue in further improving the air quality over this region in the future. To evaluate the changes in major air pollutant emissions over this region, this paper employs ens... 相似文献
7.
RMAPS_Chem V1.0系统是基于WRF_Chem模式建立的服务于华北区域雾霾等污染预报业务的模式系统,该研究着重针对系统中污染排放清单不确定性带来的SO2浓度预报偏差较大问题,采用EnKF源反演和误差统计订正相结合的方法对排放清单进行了改进,形成了一套优化后的华北区域SO2排放清单。通过输入初始清单和优化清单对2017年10月进行模拟,并与华北地区616个地面环境监测站观测值进行对比,结果表明:EnKF源反演结合误差统计订正的排放清单优化方法适用于SO2排放清单的改进,有效降低了清单系统性偏差,针对主要区域及重点城市的检验显示模拟结果接近观测值;排放清单优化后模拟误差显著降低,如河北南部、山东西部至北京一带模式预报均方根误差与归一化平均绝对误差明显下降,区域内站点模拟误差呈正态分布特征,误差分布范围、最大概率出现范围均明显变窄,且最大误差概率明显上升。 相似文献
8.
To mitigate the effects of climate change, countries worldwide are advancing technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes and measures optimal production resource reallocation using data envelopment analysis. This research attempts to clarify the effect of optimal production resource reallocation on CO2 emissions reduction, focusing on regional and industrial characteristics. We use finance, energy, and CO2 emissions data from 13 industrial sectors in 39 countries from 1995 to 2009. The resulting emissions reduction potential is 2.54 Gt-CO2 in the year 2009, with former communist countries having the largest potential to reduce CO2 emissions in the manufacturing sectors. In particular, basic material industry including chemical and steel sectors has a lot of potential to reduce CO2 emissions. 相似文献
9.
APEC blue was coined to describe the impact of short-term curbs on air pollution during the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit organized in Beijing in November 2014 and has been a hot topic among both general public and scientific sector in China. The consensus that gaseous agents NO2 and SO2 are greatly reduced in response to the control and restriction strategies implemented during the Summit period is shared by earlier literature. However, the re-examination of APEC blue conducted in the present study comes to a more contrasted conclusion. The remarkable drop in NO2 abundances is confirmed in terms of both surface concentration and vertical column, whereas corresponding SO2 changes are found to be marginal and not statistically significant, indicating that the decline of SO2 was more tied to natural or random variability rather than externally forced. To explain the contrasted responses of NO2 and SO2 during the APEC summit, short-term variations of these species are further placed in the context of a longer term perspective, which reveals a striking contrast in the pathways of the secular tendency in NO2 and SO2 emissions and corresponding measured abundances of both pollutants. On the one hand, NO2 emissions exhibit a sharp rise by 30–50% from 2006-2010 to 2011–2014; on the other hand, SO2 emissions have undergone a gradual decrease in the last decade and have currently returned to their pre-2000 level. Therefore, short-term control measures are expected to be more effective in reducing the levels of NO2 than SO2. 相似文献
10.
应用大气化学模式WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecast-Chemistry),分别选用亚洲排放源清单INTEX-B(Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B)、REASv2.1(Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2.1)以及全球排放源清单HTAP_v2(Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version 2),对浙江省2013年12月进行模拟,分别记为IN、RE和HT试验,研究人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响。结果表明,3组试验合理的反映出PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)、PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)和NO_2近地面浓度的时空分布特征,相关系数为0.5~0.8,85%以上的模拟值落在观测值的0.5~2倍范围内,但对SO_2近地面浓度模拟较差。IN、RE、HT试验对PM2.5和PM10的模拟偏差均成递减趋势,约为30%、16%和6%,HT试验的模拟值更加接近观测。INTEX-B清单中PM2.5的一次排放与二次气溶胶前提物SO_2均高于REAS与HTAP清单,因此会导致更多的硫酸盐生成,从而进一步增加PM2.5浓度。HTAP_v2清单中较低的NH3排放会抑制硝酸盐的生成,从而有助于降低PM2.5浓度。3个清单的基准年与模拟年的差异对SO_2浓度模拟的准确性影响更大,INTEX-B清单中SO_2排放量明显高于REASv2.1与HTAP_v2清单,尤其在浙北和沿海工业发达地区,导致IN试验模拟的SO_2在这些地区存在明显高估。3组试验模拟的NO_2浓度偏差最小且更为接近(-8%~4%),主要原因是3个清单在浙江省的NOx排放十分一致。从3组试验结果之间的差异程度来看,浙江省范围内PM2.5、PM10、SO_2和NO_2逐日浓度模拟值之间的平均差异程度分别约为14%、15%、51%和16%,最大差异程度分别为69%、78%、137%和132%。月均浓度与逐日浓度的平均差异程度基本一致,但最大差异程度明显更低。总体来看3组试验模拟的PM2.5、PM10与NO_2的差异程度明显低于SO_2。 相似文献
11.
Kazuaki Kawamoto Tadahiro Hayasaka Teruyuki Nakajima David Streets Jung-Hun Woo 《Atmospheric Research》2004,72(1-4):353
The relationship between SO2 emissions and the effective particle radius of low-level water clouds (re) over China was investigated to determine anthropogenic effects on clouds. Sulfur dioxide emission values were obtained from a statistical inventory, and re origins were retrieved by satellite remote sensing on a 0.5° grid. Comparisons between annual mean SO2 emissions and re showed generally decreasing re values, explained by the Twomey effect. The existence of the Twomey effect is supported by comparisons with simulated aerosol optical depths. Results further suggest that clouds over land show sensitivity to the Twomey effect as well as clouds over the ocean. 相似文献
12.
L. A. Barrie 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1985,3(1):139-152
Selected applications of baseline aerosol, SO2 and deposition chemistry observations in Canada are reviewed to illustrate how new insight can be gained into features of the atmospheric pathway of trace substances such as sources, transformation and removal. A strong annual variation in Arctic aerosol concentration is a manifestation of particle residence times that are much longer in winter than in summer. Differences in the variation of SO4
= and V concentrations in the Arctic winter are due to SO2 oxidation. The mean rate of oxidation between November and April ranges from 0.04 to 0.25%/h and is a minimum in December, January and February. Br measured on filters in the Arctic peaks in concentration later (March and April) than anthropogenic particulate matter suggesting photochemical production. Acidity in Arctic aerosol and in glacial ice are correlated. The relationship yields a best estimate of acidity in the absence of anthropogenic influences of 5.8 mole/l. Coincident air and precipitation measurements of sulphur oxides indicate that on average in eastern Canada 60% of SO4
= in rain originates from SO2 oxidation in the storm. Trends in Arctic ice core acidity and SO2 emissions in Europe are similar, that is, little variation in the first half of the century and a marked increase since the mid 1950's. This is consistent with meteorological and chemical evidence linking Arctic air pollution with Eurasian sources. 相似文献
13.
Terje Berntsen Jan Fuglestvedt Gunnar Myhre Frode Stordal Tore F. Berglen 《Climatic change》2006,74(4):377-411
Today's climate policy is based on the assumption that the location of emissions reductions has no impact on the overall climate
effect. However, this may not be the case since reductions of greenhouse gases generally will lead to changes in emissions
of short-lived gases and aerosols. Abatement measures may be primarily targeted at reducing CO2, but may also simultaneously reduce emissions of NOx, CO, CH4 and SO2 and aerosols. Emissions of these species may cause significant additional radiative forcing. We have used a global 3-D chemical
transport model and a radiative transfer model to study the impact on climate in terms of radiative forcing for a realistic
change in location of the emissions from large-scale sources. Based on an assumed 10% reduction in CO2 emissions, reductions in the emissions of other species have been estimated. Climate impact for the SRES A1B scenario is
compared to two reduction cases, with the main focus on a case with emission reductions between 2010 and 2030, but also a
case with sustained emission reductions. The emission reductions are applied to four different regions (Europe, China, South
Asia, and South America). In terms of integrated radiative forcing (over 100 yr), the total effect (including only the direct
effect of aerosols) is always smaller than for CO2 alone. Large variations between the regions are found (53–86% of the CO2 effect). Inclusion of the indirect effects of sulphate aerosols reduces the net effect of measures towards zero. The global
temperature responses, calculated with a simple energy balance model, show an initial additional warming of different magnitude
between the regions followed by a more uniform reduction in the warming later. A major part of the regional differences can
be attributed to differences related to aerosols, while ozone and changes in methane lifetime make relatively small contributions.
Emission reductions in a different sector (e.g. transportation instead of large-scale sources) might change this conclusion
since the NOx to SO2 ratio in the emissions is significantly higher for transportation than for large-scale sources. The total climate effect
of abatement measures thus depends on (i) which gases and aerosols are affected by the measure, (ii) the lifetime of the measure
implemented, (iii) time horizon over which the effects are considered, and (iv) the chemical, physical and meteorological
conditions in the region. There are important policy implications of the results. Equal effects of a measure cannot be assumed
if the measure is implemented in a different region and if several gases are affected. Thus, the design of emission reduction
measures should be considered thoroughly before implementation. 相似文献
14.
Analysis of summertime atmospheric transport of fine particulate matter in Northeast Asia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hikari Shimadera Hiroshi Hayami Yu Morino Toshimasa Ohara Satoru Chatani Shuichi Hasegawa Naoki Kaneyasu 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(3):347-360
In Northeast Asia, the effect of long-range transport of air pollutants is generally pronounced in spring and winter, but can be important even in summer. This study analyzed summer-time atmospheric transport of elemental carbon (EC) and sulfate (SO4 2?) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model driven by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF/CMAQ modeling system was applied to regions ranging from Northeast Asia to the Greater Tokyo Area in Japan in summer 2007. In terms of EC, while the model simulated well the effect of long-range transport, the simulation results indicated that domestic emissions in Japan dominantly contributed (85%) to EC concentrations in the Greater Tokyo. In terms of SO4 2?, the simulation results indicated that both domestic emissions (62%) and long-range transport from the other countries (38%) substantially contributed to SO4 2? concentrations in the Greater Tokyo. Distinctive transport processes of SO4 2? were associated with typical summer-time meteorological conditions in the study region. When a Pacific high-pressure system covered the main island of Japan, domestic emissions, including volcanic emission, dominantly contributed to SO4 2? concentrations in the Greater Tokyo. When a high-pressure system prevailed over the East China Sea and low-pressure systems passed north of Japan, synoptic westerly winds associated with this pressure pattern transported a large amount of SO4 2? from the continent to Japan. In addition, although heavy precipitation and strong wind decreased SO4 2? concentrations near the center of a typhoon, peripheral typhoon winds occasionally played an important role in long-range transport of SO4 2?. 相似文献
15.
David G. Streets 《Climatic change》2007,81(3-4):313-330
Future global emissions of aerosols will play an important role in governing the nature and magnitude of future anthropogenic climate change. We present in this paper a number of future scenarios of emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) by world region, which we combine with sulfate (SO4) assessed in terms of the emissions of its precursor, SO2. We find that aerosol emissions from the household and industrial sectors are likely to decline along almost all future pathways. Transportation emissions, however, are subject to complex interacting forces that can lead to either increases or decreases. Biomass burning declines in many scenarios, but the Amazon rainforests remain vulnerable if unsustainable economic growth persists. East Asia is the key region for primary aerosols, and trends in China will have a major bearing on the direction and magnitude of releases of BC (expected reductions in the range of 640–1290 Gg), OC (reductions of 520–1900 Gg), and SO2 (ranging from an increase of 21 Tg to a reduction of 30 Tg). Analysis of joint BC, OC, and SO2 emission changes identifies a number of key world regions and economic sectors that could be effectively targeted for aerosol reductions. 相似文献
16.
Previous research has demonstrated that soil carbon sequestration through adoption of conservation tillage can be economically profitable depending on the value of a carbon offset in a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions market. However adoption of conservation tillage also influences two other potentially important factors, changes in soil N2O emissions and CO2 emissions attributed to changes in fuel use. In this article we evaluate the supply of GHG offsets associated with conservation tillage adoption for corn-soy-hay and wheat-pasture systems of the central United States, taking into account not only the amount of carbon sequestration but also the changes in soil N2O emission and CO2 emissions from fuel use in tillage operations. The changes in N2O emissions are derived from a meta-analysis of published studies, and changes in fuel use are based on USDA data. These are used to estimate changes in global warming potential (GWP) associated with adoption of no-till practices, and the changes in GWP are then used in an economic analysis of the potential supply of GHG offsets from the region. Simulation results demonstrate that taking N2O emissions into account could result in substantial underestimation of the potential for GHG mitigation in the central U.S. wheat pasture systems, and large over-estimation in the corn-soy-hay systems. Fuel use also has quantitatively important effects, although generally smaller than N2O. These findings suggest that it is important to incorporate these two effects in estimates of GHG offset potential from agricultural lands, as well as in the design of GHG offset contracts for more complete accounting of the effect that no-till adoption will have on greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
17.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):19-33
Abstract The two project-based Kyoto mechanisms, joint implementation (JI) and the clean development mechanism (CDM), require a determination of the “baseline”, the development of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the absence of the project. This paper examines, whether absolute (given in tCO2 equivalent) or relative baselines (“benchmarks”, given, e.g. in tCO2 equivalent/MWh) should be applied for JI/CDM projects in the energy sector. Accuracy of the GHG emission reduction and manageability of GHG emission balances are used as evaluation criteria. The results show that relative baselines are a more accurate instrument for the estimation of emission reductions in JI/CDM projects in the energy sector without posing significant additional risks to the management of GHG emission balances for large entities. In comparison to absolute baselines, relative baselines indicate in a more realistic and conservative manner the amount of emission reductions obtained in the energy system and give more appropriate incentives to project sponsors. The additional risks of relative baselines are likely to be small compared to the normal deviation of the domestic/internal GHG emissions. The findings are in line with the Marrakesh Accords, which set restrictions to application of absolute baselines. 相似文献
18.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):5-25
Abstract Deliberate land management actions that enhance the uptake of CO2 or reduce its emissions have the potential to remove a significant amount of CO2 from the atmosphere over the next three decades. The quantities involved are large enough to satisfy a substantial portion of the Kyoto Protocol commitments for many countries, but are not large enough to stabilise atmospheric concentrations without also implementing major reductions in fossil fuel emissions. ‘Sinks’ can be deployed relatively rapidly at moderate cost and thus could play a useful bridging role while new energy technologies are developed. There is no difference in climatological effect between CO2 taken up by the land and CO2 reductions due to other causes. There are potential regulatory differences, related to the security with which the CO2 is held and to the accuracy with which it can be measured and verified. A variety of policy approaches are available to address these differences. 相似文献
19.
Technology transfer (TT) is not mandatory for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, yet proponents of CDM argue that TT in CDM can bring new technologies to developing countries and thus not only reduce emissions but also foster development. We review the quantitative literature on determinants of TT in CDM and estimate determinants for CDM projects in China. China is by far the largest host country of CDM projects and it is therefore crucial to understand the factors that drive TT there. To gain better interpretation, we focus on heterogeneity within a single country and results can thus be linked to specific policies of the country. Our probit estimations confirm previous international cross-country studies, indicating that larger projects and more advanced technologies are more likely to involve TT. In addition, we find evidence that agglomeration effects are more pronounced at the province level rather than larger regions. We also find a positive effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on TT, and academic research and development (R&D) is complementary to TT.Policy relevanceTechnology transfer (TT) is a goal of Chinese CDM legislation, but it is not a prerequisite for project approval. Our estimations show the project specific, technological and region-specific features that encourage more TT among CDM projects. Some variables analysed such as R&D spending and FDI (both are found to have positive effects on TT) can be, to some extent, influenced by the policy-makers. Moreover, we find some evidence for the presence of negative agglomeration effects on the provincial level: the likelihood of TT is decreasing in the number of previous projects operating in the same technology and province. This finding needs to be interpreted with great caution. It may suggest the existence of a learning externality, which could serve as a justification for policy intervention. Any policy intervention requires however careful analysis of potential positive or negative externalities resulting from the agglomeration of CDM projects and a comparison of possible benefits with the costs of TT. 相似文献
20.
基于中国铁路部门逐年统计数据,计算了1975-2007年中国电气化铁路带来的逐年节能量和CO2、烟尘、SO2、CO、NOx与CnHm的直接减排量,并分析了其变化特点.结果表明,33年来电气化铁路使得中国铁路运输行业年均节省123.0万t标准煤的能源消耗,节能量年均增长13.9万t标准煤;CO2、烟尘、SO2、CO、NO... 相似文献