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1.
Modeling disruptions causing domino effects in urban guided transport systems faced by flood hazards
Gonzva Michaël Barroca Bruno Gautier Pierre-Étienne Diab Youssef 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(1):183-200
Coastal cities are more vulnerable to floods due to the joint impact of rainfall and tide level. Quantitative risk assessment of disaster-causing factors is critical to urban flood management. This paper presents an integrated method to quantify the hazard degree of disaster-causing factors, rainfall and tide level, and to investigate the optimal management of flooding risk in different disaster-causing factor areas. First, an urban flood inundation model is used to simulate inundated extents in different drainage districts. Then, formulas are put forward to calculate the hazard degree of rainfall and tide level based on inundated extents in different combinations of rainfall and tide level. According to the hazard degree, the main disaster-causing factor could be identified in each drainage district. Finally, the optimal management of flooding risk in different disaster-causing factor areas is selected by disaster reduction analysis and cost–benefit analysis. Furthermore, the coastal city, Haikou of China, is taken as a case study. The results indicate that the hazard degree increases with the increasing distance between the drainage district and the Qiongzhou Strait or the Nandu River in the eastern of Haikou. Heavy rain is the main disaster-causing factor in inland areas, while high tide level is the main disaster-causing factor in island areas. For the area whose main disaster-causing factor is heavy rain, water storage projects could effectively reduce flooding. Meanwhile, pumps are economical choices for the area where tide level is the main disaster-causing factor. The results can provide reference for drainage planning in other coastal areas. 相似文献
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王川 《地质灾害与环境保护》2009,20(4):20-29
长沙市是湖南省地质灾害的多发区之一。地质灾害不仅造成生命财产的巨大损失,而且对当地的投资环境乃至社会的持续发展都构成威胁。在介绍了长沙市的区域自然地理与地质环境,阐述了长沙市地质灾害发育特征的基础上,通过对各类地质灾害形成条件及影响因素分析,选取了评价指标,运用综合危险性指数法进行易发程度综合评判。根据评判结果,将长沙市划分为地质灾害高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不发育区。并在此易发程度综合评判基础上划分防治重点区。划分结果比较符合长沙市地质灾害发育实际情况,为长沙市进行防灾减灾工作,合理制定发展规划提供科学依据。 相似文献
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Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities. 相似文献
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Patterns and trends in the perception of seismic risk. Case study: Bucharest Municipality/Romania 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This research looks at the very nature of perception of seismic risk, an issue that is not only academically important, but
also it can save lives and reduce injury and community costs. The background idea is that citizens in big cities, vulnerable
to seismic hazard are living with latent and permanent concerns about a possible earthquake. We were interested in revealing
significant aspects of Bucharest citizens’ orientations and tendencies in relation to the possible seismic event. Bucharest,
the capital of Romania, is exposed to the greatest seismic hazard compared with other European capitals. The dimensions of
study were: the anticipations of seism occurrence, the behavior during the event, evaluations of consequences, support factors,
and individual vulnerability. This article is an example of the low cost approach on a sample of 190 citizens, understood
as an exercise in attempting to relate population characteristics to various aspects of risk perception. The methodology used
was based on a field investigation, where the research agents’ applied one questionnaire containing free/post codified/fan
answers concerning: demographic variables, the buildings’ features, and perceptions about the possible earthquake event. The
findings of this study showed that the hazard perception significantly associates with aspects concerning the subjects’ orientation
toward institutional factors/human relations/negativism, and toward financial/material/moral support in case of disaster etc.
It is hoped that this issue will serve to inspire further investigations into this very important and socially sensitive field,
due to the fact that hazard analysis and mitigation would be more effective when it takes into account the human dimension
of disasters. 相似文献
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Estimation of seismic hazard in Gujarat region, India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Sumer Chopra Dinesh Kumar B. K. Rastogi Pallabee Choudhury R. B. S. Yadav 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(2):1157-1178
The seismic hazard in the Gujarat region has been evaluated. The scenario hazard maps showing the spatial distribution of various parameters like peak ground acceleration, characteristics site frequency and spectral acceleration for different periods have been presented. These parameters have been extracted from the simulated earthquake strong ground motions. The expected damage to buildings from future large earthquakes in Gujarat region has been estimated. It has been observed that the seismic hazard of Kachchh region is more in comparison with Saurashtra and mainland. All the cities of Kachchh can expect peak acceleration in excess of 500?cm/s2 at surface in case of future large earthquakes from major faults in Kachchh region. The cities of Saurashtra can expect accelerations of less than 200?cm/s2 at surface. The mainland Gujarat is having the lowest seismic hazard as compared with other two regions of Gujarat. The expected accelerations are less than 50?cm/s2 at most of the places. The single- and double-story buildings in Kachchh region are at highest risk as they can expect large accelerations corresponding to natural periods of such small structures. Such structures are relatively safe in mainland region. The buildings of 3?C4 stories and tall structures that exist mostly in cities of Saurashtra and mainland can expect accelerations in excess of 100?cm/s2 during a large earthquake in Kachchh region. It has been found that a total of 0.11 million buildings in Rajkot taluka of Saurashtra are vulnerable to total damage. In Kachchh region, 0.37 million buildings are vulnerable. Most vulnerable talukas are Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar, Bhachau, and Mandvi in Kachchh district and Rajkot, Junagadh, Jamnagar, Surendernagar and Porbandar in Saurashtra. In mainland region, buildings in Bharuch taluka are more vulnerable due to proximity to active Narmada-Son geo-fracture. The scenario hazard maps presented in this study for moderate as well as large earthquakes in the region may be used to augment the information available in the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the region. 相似文献
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Theo L. Hills Dr. 《GeoJournal》1982,6(2):151-156
In many parts of South America, the socio-economic condition of the population is such that in many respects the people, because of their vulnerable state, are a disaster waiting to occur. The triggering action of the disaster will be an extreme physical or biophysical event. If any advance is to be made in natural hazard management, then the focus must be upon people first. Halt the process of underdevelopment in South American societies and you have taken a major step forward in natural hazard management. The major concern of this paper is not so much with the competition for first place in hazard proneness in South America, but rather the elaboration of the total ecology of what we commonly designate as disasters, which ordinarily occur at the interface of extreme natural phenomena and vulnerable settlement patterns, and which should be seen, as the extreme situation which is implicit in the everyday condition of the population. Vulnerability is the key concept in this relationship. South American nations vary greatly in their hazard proneness, in the vulnerability of sectors in their societies, in the losses and general repercussions of hazardous events, and in their ability to cope effectively with the post-disaster situation, either alone or with international aid. 相似文献
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Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns
of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure
to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise.
The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics
commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios
are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane
storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region.
In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge
flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal
and near-coastal zones. 相似文献
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Huading Shi Qingxian Gao Yongqing Qi Jiyuan Liu Yunfeng Hu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(4):689-697
The most serious environmental problems of the Mongolian Plateau are land degradation and sand storms caused by wind erosion,
but the evaluation of wind erosion at regional scales has been a difficult process in wind erosion research. In this study,
fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) was used to assess the spatial pattern of wind erosion hazard on the Mongolian Plateau. By fuzzy clustering
four main wind erosion factors (vegetation cover, average degree of land surface relief, degree of soil dryness and intensity
of wind energy), wind erosion hazard was classified into six grades. Results show that FCM can effectively integrate related
information between wind erosion and environmental factors, which provides the basis for predictive mapping of wind erosion
hazard. Spatial patterns of wind erosion hazard indicate a gradual trend of increasing hazard in the Mongolian Plateau from
east to west. Similar patterns were also found in NDVI and soil dryness, indicating that soil moisture and vegetation are
the most important factors in the formation of wind erosion hazard. In addition, the distribution of different levels of wind
erosion hazard is basically consistent with the regional distribution of landscape vegetation types in the Mongolian Plateau. 相似文献
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上田镇沟位于卡拉水电站坝址下游,地形坡度陡峻,高差大,汇水条件好,沟内固体松散物源丰富,容易引发泥石流。现场勘查将其物源条件概括为四类：沟床堆积物源、沟道两侧崩滑堆积物源、坡面侵蚀物源、人工弃渣物源。分析该区泥石流的形成条件和流体动力学参数,对泥石流的发展趋势和危险性进行预测和评价。结果表明,泥石流形成条件充分,处于发展期,危险性中等。研究成果为卡拉水电站建设中泥石流的防治工程提供依据。 相似文献
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为了解潼关金矿矿区早期粗放式的矿业活动对矿区周边农田土壤的重金属污染状况的影响以及对暴露人群的不良健康效应的评价,采用地质调查工程选取了矿区附近6块农田土壤为研究对象,通过X射线荧光光谱分析法测定了68个土壤样本中Cd、Hg、As、Pb、Cr、Cu、Ni、Zn等8种土壤重金属含量,采用地累积指数法、潜在生态危害指数法和健康风险评估模型分别评价该区土壤重金属污染程度、潜在生态风险和人体健康风险。结果表明,该区农田土壤中Cd、Hg、Pb、Cu、Ni、Zn 6种重金属平均值高于潼关县土壤背景值,呈现不同程度的积累;Pb、Hg、Cd的土壤积累含量不仅超出了土壤重金属污染对农产品质量存在安全风险的最低限值农用地土壤污染风险筛选值,还分别以41.2%、72.1%、14.7%的超标率超出了土壤重金属污染对农产品质量存在安全风险的最高限值农用地土壤污染风险管制值;研究区土壤重金属污染评价显示,土壤中Hg、Cd、Pb总体污染程度最重,Cu、Zn总体呈现轻—重污染,Ni、Cr、As总体呈现无污染状态。生态风险评价显示,Hg、Cd、Pb为主要生态危害元素,Hg为极强风险,Cd和Pb为强风险。人体健康风险表明,研究区重金属对儿童的非致癌风险显著,Pb、Hg为主要非致癌因子;致癌风险均在合理范围,Cd致癌风险最大,手-口摄入为最主要的暴露途经,儿童更易受到重金属污染威胁。 相似文献
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Social vulnerability and seismic risk perception. Case study: the historic center of the Bucharest Municipality/Romania 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Iuliana Armaş 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):397-410
Social vulnerability is as much a part of risk as building damage, hazard magnitude, and economic loss. Social vulnerability refers to the capacity of a human community exposed during the impact of a natural hazard event (in this case, an earthquake)
to resist, cope with, and recover from that impact. In the perspective of the 3rd millennium, we come to understand that the
most efficient and accessible way to reduce the pressure of natural risks is to reduce the vulnerability level of the human
communities exposed to that certain hazard. This study aims to test, in an exposed and vulnerable area, the relationship between
social vulnerability and the perception of the seismic risk. The research focuses only on the first level of social vulnerability,
defined as the ability of an individual within a household to recover from a natural hazard impact (Dwyer et al. 2004). A prevailing assumption was that social vulnerability influences the level of perception of the seismic risk, in an exposed, vulnerable area. To this end, two samples were used, different under the aspect of social vulnerability, in the context of the same residential
area. Social vulnerability was computed as a normalized composed index that includes the poverty ratio and the demographic
vulnerability ratio (depending on the age, gender, and education level indicators). The statistical processing has indicated
a significant difference in the high perception level for the two samples that were compared, in the sense that in the context
of an increased level of social vulnerability, people generally better acknowledge the seismic risk.
相似文献
| Iuliana ArmaşEmail: |
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Naomi W. Lazarus 《GeoJournal》2014,79(5):635-648
The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - Hazard mitigation plans (HMP) inform residents and policymakers of the risks a community is vulnerable to, as well as prioritize measures implemented to minimize hazard damage.... 相似文献
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Mapping landslide susceptibility in Travis County, Texas, USA 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
A geographic information system (GIS) was used to construct a landslide hazard map for Travis County, Texas. The County is experiencing rapid growth, and development has encroached into unstable terrain that is vulnerable to landslides. Four layers of data were superimposed to create the landslide hazard map. Slope was given the most emphasis, followed by geology, vegetation, and proximity to faults. The final map shows areas of low, medium, and high landslide susceptibility. Areas of high susceptibility occupy stream and reservoir banks, rock escarpments, and agricultural land. The landslide hazard map can be a useful geologic criterion for land use planning. Planners can use the map to allocate appropriate land uses to unstable terrain, and to identify existing structures at risk from landslide activity. The methods presented in this paper can be adapted to other counties in the U.S. and elsewhere. Results of this study suggest that geographic information systems can effectively compile and overlay several data layers relevant to landslide hazards. 相似文献
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Environmental hazard from saltwater intrusion in the Laizhou Gulf,Shandong Province of China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Coastal areas play an important role in the socioeconomic development of the coastal zones based on the different land uses.
These regions are vulnerable to hydrogeological hazards and are seriously affected by coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion
in the phreatic aquifer, and sea level rise, which are worsened by human action, thereby increasing the risk of land degradation
in the coastal regions. Saltwater intrusion in the Laizhou Gulf located in northern part of Shandong Province of China was
the main natural hazard. Manmade interventions and actions (i.e., exploitation of aquifers without adequate knowledge of the
hydrology setting and an adequate management program) worsen this natural hazard. Irrational human activity induces environmental
hazard to the overall coastal areas. 相似文献