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1.
The vulnerability of the elderly to hurricane hazards in Sarasota, Florida   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Although the elderly are commonly thought to be disproportionately vulnerable to natural hazards, the elderly populations of coastal communities are continuing to grow. Because there is little to no empirical hazards work specifically addressing the vulnerable elderly in coastal communities, this paper uses Sarasota County, Florida, as a case study to analyze how vulnerable the elderly are to hurricane hazards and whether all elderly people are equally vulnerable. To explore the spatial variations in degree and composition of vulnerability among this population, the analysis maps physical exposure to hurricane storm-surge inundation and precipitation-induced flooding and creates social vulnerability indices by applying principal components analysis to census block group data in a geographic information system. The results show that elderly inhabitants of barrier islands face a considerable physical threat from hurricane-induced storm surge and flooding but are less socially vulnerable because of their wealth; the elderly living inland are far less physically vulnerable but are poorer and consequently demonstrate high socioeconomic sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity to these hurricane hazards. The paper concludes that the elderly are not equally vulnerable: there are many different types of elderly living in many different locations, and their vulnerability varies by type and over space. Effective vulnerability reduction measures should account for these differences between the elderly populations.  相似文献   

2.
Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.  相似文献   

3.
An analysis of coastal and inland fatalities in landfalling US hurricanes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them.  相似文献   

4.
The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.  相似文献   

5.
This Special Issue deals with the impact of climate change on western European coastal systems. Notwithstanding the inherent problems of studying geological data in terms of climate shifts, the results show that on the meso- and the macroscale of time, climatic forcing is a major drive for coastal change. However, its impact is largely influenced by other factors. Sediment availability plays a dominant role in the evolution of coastal systems and it can be considered one of the most important thresholds at the land-ocean interface. Sea-level changes are expected to have a significant impact on most European coasts. There is particular concern for the tidally influenced flats and marshes, and for those coastal areas known to have already a net sediment deficit and to be threatened by erosion. Areas where isostatic uplift has countered sea-level rise until now, are expected to become subject to coastal erosion in the near future under an accelerated sea-level rise scenario. The sensitivity and vulnerability of coastal systems to climate shifts is shown to be largely controlled by storm magnitude and fetch. A particular case of vulnerability is the impact of tsunamis. Finally, the consequences of human interference have been demonstrated in many cases. The implementation of geoscientific studies for rational, comprehensive and cost-effective strategies on a regional or national level of integrated coastal zone management is reviewed.  相似文献   

6.
风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点.  相似文献   

7.
Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.  相似文献   

8.
Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package. This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.).  相似文献   

9.
Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.  相似文献   

10.
This study investigated contributory factors to flood hazard around Scotland. There is a need to develop preliminary assessments of areas potentially vulnerable to flooding for compliance with the European Union Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). Historical accounts of coastal flood events in Scotland, notably in a storm in January 2005, had shown that estimates of risk based on still water levels required further information to identify sites at which waves and surges could combine. Additionally, it was important to add the effect of future sea-level rise and other drivers from published sources. Analysis of multiple years’ tidal data at seven sites, including estuaries, compared recorded water levels at high-return periods to those derived from a spatially interpolated numerical model contained within a publicly available flood risk map. For gauges with the longest records, increases were seen over time that reflected rises in mean sea level. Exposure to wave energy was computed from prevailing wind strength and direction at 36 stations, related to wave fetch and incident wind direction. Although the highest wave exposure was at open coast locations exposed to the long Atlantic fetch, GIS analysis of coastal rasters identified other areas in or close to estuaries that also had high exposure. Projected sea-level change, when added to the surge and wave analyses, gives a spatially extensive structured variable flood risk assessment for future coastal flood hazard to complement the public flood risk map. Such tools can help fulfil the requirements of the EC Directive and may be a useful approach in other regions with high spatial variability in coastal flood risk related to exposure to waves and wind.  相似文献   

11.
Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure.  相似文献   

12.
《China Geology》2019,2(1):26-39
Bulletins of China’s National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km2, 4000 km2, 5300 km2 and 7200 km2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

13.
In deltas, subsidence leads to a relative sea-level rise (RSLR) that is often much greater than eustatic rise alone. Because of high RSLR, deltaic wetlands will be affected early by an acceleration of eustatic sea-level rise. If there is sufficient vertical accretion, wetlands can continue to exist with RSLR; however, lack of sediment input eventually leads to excessive water logging and plant death. Areas with low tidal range, such as the Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico, are especially vulnerable to rising water levels because the elevational growth range of coastal vegetation is related to tide range. Reduction of suspended sediments in rivers and prevention of wetland flooding by river dikes and impoundments have reduced sediment input to Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico deltaic wetlands. This sediment deficit will become more important with an acceleration in sea-level rise from global warming. Most sediment input occurs during strong pulsing events such as river floods and storms, and management policies and decisions are especially designed to protect against such events. Management approaches must be reoriented to take advantage of pulsing events to nourish marsh surfaces with sediments. We hypothesize that deltas can be managed to withstand significant rates of sea-level rise by taking advantage of pulsing events leading to high sediment input, and that this type of management approach will enhance ecosystem functioning.  相似文献   

14.
A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and sea-level rise on groundwater–seawater interaction. Three intrinsic vulnerability mapping methods, the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), a modified SINTACS and GALDIT, were applied and compared. According to the results, the degree of groundwater vulnerability is greatly impacted by seasonal variations in groundwater recharge during the year, and also varies depending on the climate-change variability in the long term. The groundwater is potentially highly vulnerable to contamination from sources on the ground surface during high groundwater recharge rates after snowmelt, while a high vulnerability to seawater intrusion could exist when there is a low groundwater recharge rate in dry season. The AVI results suggest that a change in the sea level will have an insignificant impact on groundwater vulnerability compared with the results from the modified SINTACS and GALDIT. The modified SINTACS method could be used as a guideline for the groundwater vulnerability assessment of glacial and deglacial deposits in inland aquifers, and in combination with GALDIT, it could provide a useful tool for assessing groundwater vulnerability to both contamination from sources on the ground surface and to seawater intrusion for shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifers under future climate-change conditions.  相似文献   

15.
全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  
全球变化海岸易损性评估是国际政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）敦促沿海各国应优先开展的一项工作。根据近年来有关海岸易损性的研究成果,可以认为海岸易损性系指海岸带自然、社会经济综合体对全球环境变化和海平面上升的不适应程度。通过阐述IPCC易损性评估的基本方法、内容和目标,指出了海岸易损性评估中存在的问题及改善的方法,最后,结合我国海岸带易损性评估的已有成果,分析了我国海岸易损性评估工作中存在的问题及今后的研究方向。  相似文献   

16.
Along the southern coast of the North Sea, a large proportion of the Flemish coastal plain consists of densely populated reclaimed land, much of which lying below mean high tide level. This is particularly the case along the northern coast of France, from Dunkirk to the Belgium border, where the shoreline consists of coastal dunes that protect low-lying reclaimed lands from marine flooding. This area is vulnerable and subject to several risks. Extreme weather conditions could induce strong surges that could cause (1) a shoreline retreat, (2) marine submersion and (3) land and/or urban flooding due to drainage problems of the polders. Highly energetic events such as the November 2007 storm could have had much more severe consequences especially if they occurred at high tide and/or during a spring tide. In the current context of global change and projected sea-level rise, it is then important for the local authorities to take into account the potential impacts and return periods of such events, in order to implement coastal risk policies prevention and management, to reinforce sea defense, increase pumping station efficiency and plan warning systems against marine submersion and polder flooding, which is not the case yet in Northern France.  相似文献   

17.
A numerical-dynamic, tropical storm surge model, SLOSH (Sea, Land, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), was originally developed for real-time forecasting of hurricane storm surges on continental shelves, across inland water bodies and along coastlines and for inland routing of water -either from the sea or from inland water bodies. The model is two-dimensional, covering water bodies and inundated terrain. In the present version available at the University of Puerto Rico a curvilinear, polar coordinate grid scheme is used. The grid cells are approximately 3.2 × 3.2 km in size.The model has been used in a revision of all coastal Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in hurricane evacuation studies. The FIRM's, since they are based on the 100 year stillwater elevation, are also used by the state Planning Board for regulatory purposes. The hurricane evacuation studies are used by emergency planners and personnel to assign shelters, escape routes, and delimit coastal zones that need to be evacuated during a hurricane threat.Recently, the acquisition of data from hurricane Hugo has allowed the first comparison of model results and observations for Puerto Rico and the other islands.  相似文献   

18.
Vizianagaram–Srikakulam coastal shoreline consisting of beaches, mangrove swamps, tidal channel and mudflats is one of the vulnerable coasts in Andhra Pradesh, India. Five site-specific parameters, namely rate of geomorphology, coastal elevation, coastal slope, shoreline change and mean significant wave height, were chosen for constructing coastal vulnerability index and assessing coastal landscape vulnerability. The findings revealed a shift of 2.5 km in shoreline towards the land surface because of constant erosion and that of 1.82 km towards the sea due to accretion during 1997–2017. The rate of high erosion was found in zones IV and V, and high accretion was found in zones II and III. Coastal vulnerability index analysis revealed constant erosion along shoreline and sea level rise in the study area. Most of the coast in zone V has recorded very high vulnerability due to erosion, high slope, significant wave height and sea level rise. Erosion and accretion, significant wave height, sea level rise and slope are attributed to high vulnerability in zones III and IV. Zone II recorded moderate vulnerability. Relatively lower slope, mean sea wave height and sea level rise have made this zone moderately vulnerable. Very low vulnerability was found in zone I, and low vulnerability was recorded in zone II. Accretion, low slope and low sea level rise were found to be causative factors of lower vulnerability. Thus, zones III, IV and V should be accorded higher priorities for coastal management. The findings can be helpful in coastal land planning and management and preparing emergency plans of the coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   

19.
The study area (the Gulf of Bejaia) is a coastal zone of about 70 km long in the eastern-central part of the Algerian coast. The coastline characterized by sandy beaches, hotels and tourist facilities, airport, port, villages and towns has known during these last decades several threats like storms, floods and erosion. The present work concerns the mapping of the physical and socioeconomic vulnerability of the Gulf Coast of Bejaia to sea level rise, using Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) and geospatial tools. The Physical CVI (CVIPhys) is calculated from seven physical variables: geomorphology, coastal slope, coastal regional elevation, sea level rise rate, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, tidal range and significant wave height. On the other hand, the parameters population, cultural heritage, roads, railways, land use and conservation designation constitute, for their part, the socioeconomic CVI (CVIeco). The values obtained from the calculation of CVIPhys vary between 3.53 and 81.83. These results revealed that 22.42 km of the studied coastline has a low physical vulnerability, 21.68 km a high vulnerability and 15.83 km a very high vulnerability, indicating that the most part of the coastline (53.59%) is vulnerable to sea level rise. According to the obtained values of CVIeco, the most vulnerable areas of high and very high risk represent 31.81 km of the total coastline. They were found along the western (Bejaia and Tichy) and eastern (Aokas, Souk El Tenine and Melbou) coast, while the least vulnerable stretches, covering 38.19 km of the total length of the coast, occupy the rest of the area. This study highlighted areas that will be most affected by future sea level rise (SLR) and storm events. It revealed that several development projects of Bejaia Gulf Coast, including tourist expansion areas, are planned in sites identified as very vulnerable. The results obtained from this assessment could guide local planners and decision-makers in developing coastal management plans in the most vulnerable areas.  相似文献   

20.
Classifying inundation limits in SE coast of India: application of GIS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A study on the possible inundation limit in SE coast of India was carried out using various physical, geological and satellite imageries. The coastal inundation hazard map was prepared for this particular region as it was affected by many cyclones, flooding, storm surge and tsunami waves during the last six decades. The results were generated using various satellite data (IRS-P6 LISS3; LANDSAT ETM; LANDSAT-5 ETM; LANDSAT MSS) and digital elevation models (ASTER GLOBAL DEM), and a coastal vulnerability index was generated for the entire coastal stretch of Nagapattinam region in SE coast of India. The coastal area which will be submerged totally due to a 1–5 m rise in water level due to any major natural disaster (tsunami or cyclone) indicates that 56–320 km2 will be submerged in this particular region. The results suggest that nearly 7 towns and 69 villages with 667,477 people will be affected and indicate that proper planning needs to be done for future development.  相似文献   

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