共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
A. Birol Kara Charlie N. Barron Paul J. Martin Lucy F. Smedstad Robert C. Rhodes 《Ocean Modelling》2006,11(3-4):376-398
A 1/8° global version of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) is used for simulation of upper-ocean quantities on interannual time scales. The model spans the global ocean from 80°S to a complete Arctic cap, and includes 19 terrain-following σ- and 21 fixed z-levels. The global NCOM assimilates three-dimensional (3D) temperature and salinity fields produced by the Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) which generates synthetic temperature and salinity profiles based on ocean surface observations. Model-data intercomparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of NCOM in predicting upper-ocean quantities such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and mixed layer depth (MLD). Subsurface temperature and salinity are evaluated as well. An extensive set of buoy observations is used for this validation. Where possible, the model validation is performed between year-long time series obtained from the model and time series from the buoys. The statistical analyses include the calculation of dimensionless skill scores (SS), which are positive if statistical skill is shown and equal to one for perfect SST simulations. Model SST comparisons with year-long SST time series from all 83 buoys give a median SS value of 0.82. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with the year-long subsurface temperature time series from 24 buoys showed that the model is able to predict temperatures down to 500 m reasonably well, with positive SS values ranging from 0.18 to 0.97. Intercomparisons of MLD reveal that the model MLD is usually shallower than the buoy MLD by an average of about 15 m. Annual mean SSS and subsurface salinity biases between the model and buoy values are small. A comparison of SST between NCOM and a satellite-based Pathfinder data set demonstrates that the model has a root-mean-square (RMS) SST difference of 0.61 °C over the global ocean. Spatial variations of kinetic energy fields from NCOM show agree with historical observations. Based on these results, it is concluded that the global NCOM presented in this paper is able to predict upper-ocean quantities with reasonable accuracy for both coastal and open ocean locations. 相似文献
2.
3.
In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories. 相似文献
4.
基于长短时记忆神经网络的台风路径临近预报模型 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
It is of vital importance to reduce injuries and economic losses by accurate forecasts of typhoon tracks. A huge amount of typhoon observations have been accumulated by the meteorological department, however, they are yet to be adequately utilized. It is an effective method to employ machine learning to perform forecasts. A long short term memory(LSTM) neural network is trained based on the typhoon observations during 1949–2011 in China's Mainland, combined with big data and data mining technologies, and a forecast model based on machine learning for the prediction of typhoon tracks is developed. The results show that the employed algorithm produces desirable 6–24 h nowcasting of typhoon tracks with an improved precision. 相似文献
5.
S. V. Motyzhev 《Physical Oceanography》2000,10(6):561-568
We present the results of drift experiments with 14LOBAN-TM buoys carried out for the first time in the Black Sea in 1987–1997. We analyze the specific features of application of buoys
in summer and winter. We present the main results of investigation of the Main Black Sea Current by drift methods and joint
processing of drift contact and remote infrared observations. We demonstrate the possibility of enhancement of the quality
of observations due to the application of SVPB drifters of new generation equipped with underwater sails and meters of atmospheric
pressure in the near-surface atmospheric layer.
Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev 相似文献
6.
The use of Search and Rescue (SAR) drift forecasting in an operational capacity is demonstrated through two SAR case studies, each predicting the drift of a panga skiff for 120 h (Case 1) and 72 h (Case 2). The leeway characteristics of panga skiffs were previously unknown, until a leeway field study was undertaken in mid-2012 to empirically determine the influence of wind and waves on their drift. As part of the two case studies described herein, four ocean models were used as environmental forcing for a stochastic particle trajectory model, to forecast the drift and resulting search areas for the panga skiffs. Each of the four ocean models were tested individually, and then combined into a consensus forecast to ascertain which ocean model was the most accurate in terms of distance error of modelled positions compared to actual panga skiff locations. Additionally, a hit analysis was undertaken to determine whether the panga skiff was located within the forecast search areas for each ocean model, and for consensus search areas. Finally, an assessment of the search area sizes was carried out to assess the single ocean model forecast search area sizes, and how they compared with the consensus search area size. In both of the case studies, all four ocean model forecast search areas contained the panga skiff at the time intervals tested, indicating a 100% hit rate and general consensus between the ocean models. The consensus search area, where all four ocean models overlapped, was approximately one third the size of the average single model search area. This demonstrates that the consensus search areas provide a more efficient search area compared to individual ocean model search area forecasts. 相似文献
7.
Aart C. Voorrips 《Coastal Engineering》1999,37(3-4)
Spectral observations from pitch-and-roll buoys have been assimilated in a North Sea wave model, in order to study their impact on the wave analysis and forecast. The assimilation is based on Optimal Interpolation (OI) of a limited number of characteristic spectral parameters. In a case study, the propagation of the corrections through the model domain is followed, and it is clarified for which wave conditions the data assimilation has the largest influence on the forecast: this is especially the case for swell waves with long travel times between the assimilation site and the location where validation is carried out. A 1-year test has been carried out in which an analysis and subsequent forecast were produced four times a day. From a statistical analysis of the results a modest but systematic improvement of the 12-h forecast is found. When only swell cases are selected, the impact is more pronounced. It is argued that for shelf seas like the North Sea, more progress is to be expected from extension of the ‘conventional' observations network (buoys and wave radars) than from satellite measurements. 相似文献
8.
Qi Shu Zhenya Song Ying Bao Xiaodan Yang Yajuan Song Xinfang Li Meng Wei Fangli Qiao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(10):22-31
We introduced the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Ocean Model Intercomparison Project CORE2-forced (OMIP-1) experiment by using the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2.0 (FIO-ESM v2.0), and comprehensively evaluated the simulation results. Unlike other OMIP models, FIO-ESM v2.0 includes a coupled ocean surface wave component model that takes into account non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing in the ocean and effect of surface wave Stokes drift on air-sea momentum and heat fluxes in the climate system. A sub-layer sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle parameterization was also employed to take into account effect of SST diurnal cycle on air-sea heat ?uxes to improve simulations of air-sea interactions. Evaluations show that mean values and long-term trends of significant wave height were adequately reproduced in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulations, and there is a reasonable fit between the SST diurnal cycle obtained from in situ observations and that parameterized by FIO-ESM v2.0. Evaluations of model drift, temperature, salinity, mixed layer depth, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation show that the model performs well in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulation. However, the summer sea ice extent of the Arctic and Antarctic is underestimated. 相似文献
9.
For more and more applications in coastal and offshore engineering, numerical simulations of waves and surges are required. An important input parameter for such simulations are wind fields. They represent one of the major sources for uncertainties in wave and surge simulations. Wind fields for such simulations are frequently obtained from numerical hindcasts with regional atmospheric models (RAMs). The skill of these atmospheric hindcasts depends, among others, on the quality of the forcing at the boundaries. Furthermore, results may vary due to uncertainties in the initial conditions. By comparing different existing approaches for forcing a regional atmospheric model, it is shown that the models' sensitivity to uncertainties in the initial conditions may be reduced when a more sophisticated approach is used that has been suggested recently. For a specific, although somewhat brief test period, it is demonstrated that an improved hindcast skill for near surface wind fields is obtained when this approach is adopted. Consequences of the reduced uncertainty in wield fields for the hindcast skill of subsequent wave modelling studies are demonstrated. Recently, this new approach has been used together with a regional atmosphere model to produce a 40-year wind hindcast for the Northeast Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The hindcast is presently extended to other areas and the wind fields are used to produce 40-year high-resolution hindcasts of waves and surges for various European coastal areas. 相似文献
10.
气候模式和再分析数据中北冰洋中层水再现能力的评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The simulations of the Arctic Intermediate Water in four datasets of climate models and reanalyses, CCSM3, CCSM4, SODA and GLORYS, are analyzed and evaluated. The climatological core temperatures and depths in both CCSM models exhibit deviations over 0.5°C and 200 m from the PHC. SODA reanalysis reproduces relatively reasonable spatial patterns of core temperature and depth, while GLORYS, another reanalysis, shows a remarkable cooling and deepening drift compared with the result at the beginning of the dataset especially in the Eurasian Basin(about 2°C). The heat contents at the depth of intermediate water in the CCSM models are overestimated with large positive errors nearly twice of that in the PHC. To the contrary, the GLORYS in 2009 show a negative error with a similar magnitude, which means the characteristic of the water mass is totally lost. The circulations in the two reanalyses at the depth of intermediate water are more energetic and realistic than those in the CCSMs, which is attributed to the horizontal eddy-permitting resolution. The velocity fields and the transports in the Fram Strait are also investigated. The necessity of finer horizontal resolution is concluded again. The northward volume transports are much larger in the two reanalyses, although they are still weak comparing with mooring observations. Finally, an investigation of the impact of assimilation is done with an evidence of the heat input from assimilation. It is thought to be a reason for the good performance in the SODA, while the GLORYS drifts dramatically without assimilation data in the Arctic Ocean. 相似文献
11.
《Journal of Sea Research》2003,49(3):187-201
Retention or dispersion of larvae from the spawning ground has been identified as one of the key processes influencing recruitment success in fish stocks. An exercise combining 3-D hydrodynamic model simulations and field data on spatial distributions of juvenile Baltic cod was utilised to investigate the potential drift of larvae from the centre of main spawning effort in the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. In the simulations cod larvae were represented as Lagrangian drifters. Habitats in which larvae and juvenile cod potentially dwell and where juveniles settle were identified to ascertain the importance of predicting transport. The transport of Baltic cod larvae was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1986 to 1999. The results yielded a clear dependency on wind-induced drift of larval cod, which is mainly controlled by the local atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea. Seasonally averaged distributions of drifters were compared with actual distributions of 0-group cod, as determined from bottom and pelagic trawl surveys conducted in autumn of the years 1993 to 2000 in and around the Bornholm Basin. The results suggest that juveniles caught in different areas can be assigned to different times of the spawning season. Because of seasonal differences in the circulation patterns, the southern coastal environment is on average most important for early and late spawners, whereas larvae hatching in mid-summer were on average transported towards the north or to a higher degree remained in the spawning ground. 相似文献
12.
L. Vandenbulcke J.-M. Beckers A. Barth M. Aidonidis F. Ardhuin C. Fratianni D. Pallela M. Tudor P. Martin M. Rixen 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,82(3):149-167
The prediction of surface drift of floating objects is an important task, with applications such as marine transport, pollutant dispersion, and search-and-rescue activities. But forecasting even the drift of surface waters is very challenging, because it depends on complex interactions of currents driven by the wind, the wave field and the general prevailing circulation. Furthermore, although each of those can be forecasted by deterministic models, the latter all suffer from limitations, resulting in imperfect predictions. In the present study, we try and predict the drift of two buoys launched during the DART06 (Dynamics of the Adriatic sea in Real-Time 2006) and MREA07 (Maritime Rapid Environmental Assessment 2007) sea trials, using the so-called hyper-ensemble technique: different models are combined in order to minimize departure from independent observations during a training period; the obtained combination is then used in forecasting mode. We review and try out different hyper-ensemble techniques, such as the simple ensemble mean, least-squares weighted linear combinations, and techniques based on data assimilation, which dynamically update the model’s weights in the combination when new observations become available. We show that the latter methods alleviate the need of fixing the training length a priori, as older information is automatically discarded.When the forecast period is relatively short (12 h), the discussed methods lead to much smaller forecasting errors compared with individual models (at least three times smaller), with the dynamic methods leading to the best results. When many models are available, errors can be further reduced by removing colinearities between them by performing a principal component analysis. At the same time, this reduces the amount of weights to be determined.In complex environments when meso- and smaller scale eddy activity is strong, such as the Ligurian Sea, the skill of individual models may vary over time periods smaller than the forecasting period (e.g. when the latter is 36 h). In these cases, a simpler method such as a fixed linear combination or a simple ensemble mean may lead to the smallest forecast errors. In environments where surface currents have strong mean-kinetic energies (e.g. the Western Adriatic Current), dynamic methods can be particularly successful in predicting the drift of surface waters. In any case, the dynamic hyper-ensemble methods allow to estimate a characteristic time during which the model weights are more or less stable, which allows predicting how long the obtained combination will be valid in forecasting mode, and hence to choose which hyper-ensemble method one should use. 相似文献
13.
Sea ice growth and consolidation play a significant role in heat and momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. However, few in situ observations of sea ice kinematics have been reported owing to difficulties of deployment of buoys in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). To investigate the characteristics of sea ice kinematics from MIZ to packed ice zone (PIZ), eight drifting buoys designed by Taiyuan University of Technology were deployed in the open water at the ice edge of the Canadian Basin. Sea ice near the buoy constantly increased as the buoy drifted, and the kinematics of the buoy changed as the buoy was frozen into the ice. This process can be determined using sea ice concentration, sea skin temperature, and drift speed of buoy together. Sea ice concentration data showed that buoys entered the PIZ in mid-October as the ice grew and consolidated around the buoys, with high amplitude, high frequency buoy motions almost ceasing. Our results confirmed that good correlation coefficient in monthly scale between buoy drift and the wind only happened in the ice zone. The correlation coefficient between buoys and wind was below 0.3 while the buoys were in open water. As buoys entered the ice zone, the buoy speed was normally distributed at wind speeds above 6 m/s. The buoy drifted mainly to the right of the wind within 45° at wind speeds above 8 m/s. During further consolidation of the ice in MIZ, the direct forcing on the ice through winds will be lessened. The correlation coefficient value increased to 0.9 in November, and gradually decreased to 0.7 in April. 相似文献
14.
Satellite altimetry has become an important discipline in the development of sea-state forecasting or more generally in operational oceanography. Météo-France Marine and Oceanography Division is much involved in altimetry, in which it is also one of the main operational customers. Sea-state forecasts are produced every day with the help of numerical models assimilating Fast Delivery Product altimeter data from ESA ERS-2 satellite, available in real-time (3–5 h). These forecasts are transmitted to seamen as part of safety mission of persons and properties, or specific assistance for particular operations. With the launch of ENVISAT (from ESA, launched on 1 March 2002, to take over the ERS mission) and JASON-1 (from CNES/NASA, launched on 7 December 2001, successor of TOPEX/Poseidon), we have an unprecedented opportunity of improved coverage with the availability in quasi-real-time of data from several altimeters. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of using multisources of altimeter data in real-time, to improve wave model analyses and forecasts, at global scale. Since July 2003, Météo-France injects the wind/wave JASON-1 Operational Sensor Data Record on the WMO Global Transmitting System, making them available in near real-time to the international meteorological community. Similarly, fast delivery altimeter data of ENVISAT will improve coverage and contribute to the constant progress of marine meteorology. For this purpose, significant wave height time series were generated using the Wave Model WAM and the assimilation of altimeter wave heights from two satellites ERS-2 and JASON-1. The results were then compared to Geosat Follow-On (GFO, U.S. Navy Satellite) and moored buoy wave data. It is shown that the impact of data assimilation, when two (ERS-2 and JASON-1) or three (ERS-2 with JASON-1 and GFO) sources of data are used instead of one (ERS-2), in term of significant wave height, is larger in wave model analyses but smaller in wave model forecasts. However, there is no improvement in terms of wave periods, both in the analysis and forecast periods. 相似文献
15.
Long (>30 years) monthly records of relative sea-level heights from tide gauges in the Baltic sea are analyzed. Time series clustering based on forecast densities is applied in order to describe regional sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea in terms of future relative heights. The tide gauge records are clustered on the basis of forecasts at 3-month and 6-month horizons. For the 3-month horizon, the results of the cluster analysis show a fairly spatial coherency in terms of grouping together locations from the same sub-basin, with the northern records in the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Finland clustering together, followed by the tide gauges in the Baltic Proper and lastly the southernmost stations in the western Baltic. For the 6-month horizon, the results show a higher degree of homogeneity between different locations, but a clear separation between the stations at the Baltic entrance and the tide gauges inside the Baltic basin. Moreover, when considering detrended records, reflecting mainly the seasonal cycle, the clustering results are more homogeneous and suggest a distinct response of coastal sea-level in spring and in summer. 相似文献
16.
During the Atlantic Remote Sensing Land Ocean Experiment (ARSLOE), October-November, 1980, a large number of meteorological and oceanographic instruments, especially wave-measurement instruments, were deployed in the ocean near the Army Corps of Engineers Pier, Duck, NC. About nine Waverider buoys were deployed in an approximately rectangular pattern, about 30 km wide by 40 km seaward. The Waveriders were an accepted reference for study of other wave-measurement instrument systems. Almost all of the Waverider buoys were calibrated on the rotating-arm facility of the NOAA, Engineering Support Office. Pre- and post-deployment calibrations formed the basis for tables and equations for correction of the Waverider measurements. The calibrations discussed here established that the Waveriders were measuring lower than specification, averaging about 5 percent low (10 percent for variance spectra coefficients.) Corrections for effects of fluctuations in water temperature on Waverider sensitivity were required and are provided. The manufacturer's modification to prevent future drift in sensitivity is also described. 相似文献
17.
CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。 相似文献
18.
台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型,开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟,模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率,采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造,改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上,计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件,并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型,计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上,非常适合风暴潮集合预报,并且可以提供更好的决策产品。 相似文献
19.
Steven R. Hanna Clinton P. MacDonald Mark Lilly Charles Knoderer C.H. Huang 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,70(4):541
Boundary layer observations were made over the Gulf of Mexico over a 3-year period in order to develop and test methods for estimating surface fluxes and boundary layer wind fields. In addition to routinely available buoy and CMAN surface data, six 915 MHz radar wind profilers (RWPs) and RASS profilers were mounted on oil platforms and on the shore. Estimates of surface momentum, sensible heat, and latent heat fluxes have been made from the surface observations using the COARE software. Simulations by the National Weather Service's Eta meteorological model are compared with the observations of surface fluxes and wind profiles. The boundary layer is found to be unstable over 90% of the time, and latent heat fluxes are about five to ten times larger than sensible heat fluxes, as usually found over tropical oceans. Eta model simulations of surface fluxes are within about ±50% of COARE estimates of the fluxes based on surface observations. Most of the time, COARE-derived fluxes at 11 sites are within a factor of two of each other at any given hour. In multi-day case studies, COARE calculations are found to agree with Eta model simulations of these fluxes and parameters within a factor of two most of the time. Eta model simulations of wind speeds in the boundary layer tend to exceed the RWP observations by 1–2 m s−1 near shore and by 2–6 m s−1 at distances of 100–200 km offshore. 相似文献
20.
《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3-4):383-397
The Jason-1 Operational Sensor Data Record (OSDR) is intended as a wind and wave product that is aimed towards near-real–time (NRT) meteorological applications. However, the OSDR provides most of the information that is required to determine altimetric sea surface heights in NRT. The exceptions include a sufficiently accurate orbit altitude, and pressure fields to determine the dry troposphere path delay correction. An orbit altitude field is provided on the OSDR but has accuracies that range between 8–25 cm (RMS). However, tracking data from the on-board BlackJack GPS receiver are available with sufficiently short latency for use in the computation of NRT GPS-based orbit solutions. The orbit altitudes from these NRT orbit solutions have typical accuracies of < 3.0 cm (RMS) with a latency of 1–3 h, and < 2.5 cm (RMS) with a latency of 3–5 h. Meanwhile, forecast global pressure fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are available for the NRT computation of the dry troposphere correction. In combination, the Jason-1 OSDR, the NRT GPS-based orbit solutions, and the NCEP pressure fields can be used to compute sea surface height observations from the Jason-1 mission with typical latencies of 3–5 h, and have differences with those from the 2–3 day latency Interim Geophysical Data Records of < 5 cm (RMS). The NRT altimetric sea surface height observations are potentially of benefit to forecasting, tactical oceanography, and natural hazard monitoring. 相似文献