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1.
Ocean transport and dispersion processes are at the present time simulated using Lagrangian stochastic models coupled with Eulerian circulation models that are supplying analyses and forecasts of the ocean currents at unprecedented time and space resolution. Using the Lagrangian approach, each particle displacement is described by an average motion and a fluctuating part. The first one represents the advection associated with the Eulerian current field of the circulation models while the second one describes the sub-grid scale diffusion. The focus of this study is to quantify the sub-grid scale diffusion of the Lagrangian models written in terms of a horizontal eddy diffusivity. Using a large database of drifters released in different regions of the Mediterranean Sea, the Lagrangian sub-grid scale diffusion has been computed, by considering different regimes when averaging statistical quantities. In addition, the real drifters have been simulated using a trajectory model forced by OGCM currents, focusing on how the Lagrangian properties are reproduced by the simulated trajectories.  相似文献   

2.
Application of the preventive techniques for the optimisation of fairways in the south-western Baltic Sea and the Kattegat in terms of protection of the coastal regions against current-driven surface transport of adverse impacts released from vessels is considered. The techniques rely on the quantification of the offshore domains (the points of release of adverse impacts) in terms of their ability to serve as a source of remote, current-driven danger to the nearshore. An approximate solution to this inverse problem of current-driven transport is obtained using statistical analysis of a large pool of Lagrangian trajectories of water particles calculated based on velocity fields from the Denmark’s Meteorological Institute (DMI)/BSH cmod circulation model forced by the DMI-HIRHAM wind fields for 1990–1994. The optimum fairways are identified from the spatial distributions of the probability of hitting the coast and for the time (particle age) it takes for the pollution to reach the coast. In general, the northern side of the Darss Sill area and the western domains of the Kattegat are safer to travel. The largest variations in the patterns of safe areas and the properties of pollution beaching occur owing to the interplay of water inflow and outflow. The gain from the use of the optimum fairways is in the range of 10–30?% in terms of the decrease in the probability of coastal hit within 10?days after pollution release or an increase by about 1–2?days of the time it takes for the hit to occur.  相似文献   

3.
We propose and test a method for the optimisation of marine fairways to minimise the risk to high-value areas, based on statistical analysis of Lagrangian trajectories of current-driven pollution transport. The offshore areas are quantified according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The gain is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). The use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40% or increase the average time of reaching the pollution to the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea.  相似文献   

4.
I. Haltas 《水文研究》2012,26(22):3448-3458
Recognizing the spatial heterogeneity of hydraulic parameters, many researchers have studied the solute transport by both groundwater and channel flow in a stochastic framework. One of the methodologies used to up‐scale the stochastic solute transport equation, from a point‐location scale to a grid scale, is the cumulant expansion method combined with the calculus for the time‐ordered exponential and the calculus for the Lie operator. When the point‐location scale transport equation is scaled up to the grid scale, using the cumulant expansion method, a new dispersion coefficient emerges in the dispersive term of the solute transport equation in addition to the molecular dispersion coefficient. This velocity driven dispersion is called ‘macrodispersion’. The macrodispersion coefficient is the integral function of the time‐ordered covariance of the random velocity field. The integral is calculated over a Lagrangian trajectory of the flow. The Lagrangian trajectory depends on the following: (i) the spatial origin of the particle; (ii) the time when the macrodispersion is calculated; and (iii) the mean velocity field along the trajectory itself. The Lagrangian trajectory is a recursive function of time because the location of the particle along the trajectory at a particular time depends on the location of the particle at the previous time. This recursive functional form of the Lagrangian trajectory makes the calculation of the macrodispersion coefficient difficult. Especially for the unsteady, spatially non‐stationary, non‐uniform flow field, the macrodispersion coefficient is a highly complex expression and, so far, calculated using numerical methods in the discrete domains. Here, an analytical method was introduced to calculate the macrodispersion coefficient in the discrete domain for the unsteady and steady, spatially non‐stationary flow cases accurately and efficiently. This study can fill the gap between the theory of the ensemble averaged solute transport model and its numerical implementations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The prediction of drifting object trajectories in the ocean is a complex problem plagued with uncertainties. This problem is usually solved simulating the possible trajectories based on wind and advective numerical and/or instrumental data in real time, which are incorporated into Lagrangian trajectory models. However, both data and Lagrangian models are approximations of reality and when comparing trajectory data collected from drifter exercises with respect to Lagrangian models results, they differ considerably. This paper introduces a stochastic Lagrangian trajectory model that allows quantifying the uncertainties related to: (i) the wind and currents numerical and/or instrumental data, and (ii) the Lagrangian trajectory model. These uncertainties are accounted for within the model through random model parameters. The quantification of these uncertainties consists in an estimation problem, where the parameters of the probability distribution functions of the random variables are estimated based on drifter exercise data. Particularly, it is assumed that estimated parameters maximize the likelihood of our model to reproduce the trajectories from the exercise. Once the probability distribution parameters are estimated, they can be used to simulate different trajectories, obtaining location probability density functions at different times. The advantage of this method is that it allows: (i) site specific calibration, and (ii) comparing uncertainties related to different wind and currents predictive tools. The proposed method is applied to data collected during the DRIFTER Project (eranet AMPERA, VI Programa Marco), showing very good predictive skills.  相似文献   

6.
Development of thoughts on tracer transport mechanisms in the stratosphere which lead to new approaches to two-dimensional modeling of the tracer problem is reviewed.Three-dimensional motions of individual air parcels affected by a planetary wave are investigated theoretically, treating a steady, upward propagating wave in a uniform flow. It is shown that trajectories of air parcels are of elliptical form when projected onto the meridional plane and that they have no mean meridional or vertical motion, even though the usual zonal Eulerian-mean vertical motion exists. The origin of the difference between the mean air parcel motion and the Eulerian-mean motion is discussed.On the basis of the knowledge of air parcel motion, two approaches to two-dimensional modeling are considered. The generalized Lagrangian mean motion (quasi-zonal weighted mean taken over a meandering material tube), recently introduced by Andrews and McIntyre, is identical with the mean motion of an air parcel in a steady state. Such a mean meridional circulation may be used for advecting a tracer in the meridional plane in a two-dimensional model. The transport effect is represented solely by the advection and an eddy transport does not appear in this scheme, to a first approximation.The finding that trajectories of air parcels are elliptical necessitates a reexamination of the Reed-German eddy diffusivity currently used in two-dimensional chemical-dynamical models. By applying a mixing length type hypothesis, we derive an eddy diffusivity formula for use in Eulerian-mean calculations, which, in the case of a conservative tracer is dominated by an anti-symmetric tensor. The eddy transport due to this anti-symmetric tensor diffusivity is of advective type (not diffusive) and has the effect of taking the Stoke drift effect into account, when used in the usual Eulerian-mean formulation.  相似文献   

7.
In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.  相似文献   

8.
The leeway of 20-ft containers in typical distress conditions is established through field experiments in a Norwegian fjord and in open-ocean conditions off the coast of France with a wind speed ranging from calm to 14 m s−1. The experimental setup is described in detail, and certain recommendations were given for experiments on objects of this size. The results are compared with the leeway of a scaled-down container before the full set of measured leeway characteristics are compared with a semianalytical model of immersed containers. Our results are broadly consistent with the semianalytical model, but the model is found to be sensitive to choice of drag coefficient and makes no estimate of the crosswind leeway of containers. We extend the results from the semianalytical immersion model by extrapolating the observed leeway divergence and estimates of the experimental uncertainty to various realistic immersion levels. The sensitivity of these leeway estimates at different immersion levels are tested using a stochastic trajectory model. Search areas are found to be sensitive to the exact immersion levels, the choice of drag coefficient, and somewhat less sensitive to the inclusion of leeway divergence. We further compare the search areas, thus, found with a range of trajectories estimated using the semianalytical model with only perturbations to the immersion level. We find that the search areas calculated without estimates of crosswind leeway and its uncertainty will grossly underestimate the rate of expansion of the search areas. We recommend that stochastic trajectory models of container drift should account for these uncertainties by generating search areas for different immersion levels and with the uncertainties in crosswind and downwind leeway reported from our field experiments.  相似文献   

9.
The California Current System (CCS) is an eastern boundary upwelling system characterized by strong eddies that are often generated at the coast. These eddies contribute to intense, long-distance cross-shelf transport of upwelled water with enhanced biological activity. However, the mechanisms of formation of such coastal eddies, and more importantly their capacity to trap and transport tracers, are poorly understood. Their unpredictability and strong dynamics leave us with an incomplete picture of the physical and biological processes at work, their effects on coastal export, lateral water exchange among eddies and their surrounding waters, and how long and how far these eddies remain coherent structures. Focusing our analysis on the southern part of the CCS, we find a predominance of cyclonic eddies, with a 25-km radius and a SSH amplitude of 6 cm. They are formed near shore and travel slightly northwest offshore for ~?190 days at ~?2 km day?1. We then study one particular, representative cyclonic eddy using a combined Lagrangian and Eulerian numerical approach to characterize its kinematics. Formed near shore, this eddy trapped a core made up of ~?67% California Current waters and ~?33% California Undercurrent waters. This core was surrounded by other waters while the eddy detached from the coast, leaving the oldest waters at the eddy’s core and the younger waters toward the edge. The eddy traveled several months as a coherent structure, with only limited lateral exchange within the eddy.  相似文献   

10.
In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar ocean observation technology for backtracking drifting objects are analysed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by comparison of trajectories between drifter buoys versus numerical simulations using a Lagrangian trajectory model. High-resolution currents measured by a coastal HF radar network combined with atmospheric fields provided by numerical models are used to backtrack the trajectory of two dataset of surface-drifting buoys: group I (with drogue) and group II (without drogue). A methodology based on optimization methods is applied to estimate the uncertainty in the trajectory simulations and to optimize the search area of the backtracked positions. The results show that, to backtrack the trajectory of the buoys in group II, both currents and wind fields were required. However, wind fields could be practically discarded when simulating the trajectories of group I. In this case, the optimal backtracked trajectories were obtained using only HF radar currents as forcing. Based on the radar availability data, two periods ranging between 8 and 10?h were selected to backtrack the buoy trajectories. The root mean squared error (RMSE) was found to be 1.01?km for group I and 0.82?km for group II. Taking into account these values, a search area was calculated using circles of RMSE radii, obtaining 3.2 and 2.11?km2 for groups I and II, respectively. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for backtracking drifting objects and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric models are of value to perform backtracking analysis of drifting objects.  相似文献   

11.
Forecasting search areas using ensemble ocean circulation modeling   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
We investigate trajectory forecasting as an application of ocean circulation ensemble modeling. The ensemble simulations are performed weekly, starting with assimilation of data for various variables from multiple sensors on a range of observational platforms. The ensemble is constructed from 100 members, and member no. 1 is designed as a standard (deterministic) simulation, providing us with a benchmark for the study. We demonstrate the value of the ensemble approach by validating simulated trajectories using data from ocean surface drifting buoys. We find that the ensemble average trajectories are generally closer to the observed trajectories than the corresponding results from a deterministic forecast. We also investigate an alternative model in which velocity perturbations are added to the deterministic results and ensemble mean results, by a first-order stochastic process. The parameters of the stochastic model are tuned to match the dispersion of the ensemble approach. Search areas from the stochastic model give a higher hit ratio of the observations than the results based on the ensemble. However, we find that this is a consequence of a positive skew of the area distribution of the convex hulls of the ensemble trajectory end points.  相似文献   

12.
A set of four indices that quantify Lagrangian properties of the Gulf of California seasonal circulation were implemented from outputs of a three-dimensional numerical model. From trajectories of particles seeded over the entire Gulf, we calculated for 12 one-month periods the following indices: net and total distance traveled by the particles, the number of particles that are found within an area centered on the release positions after one month, and time taken by particles to escape from a 50-km-radius circle. These indices can be used for studies on transport of inert properties and passive planktonic organisms such as eggs and early-stage larvae; their use is illustrated for typical summer and winter conditions in the Gulf of California. These indices show the potential for connecting areas separated by a few hundreds of km along the eastern side of the Gulf, due to the strong seasonal up-gulf and down-gulf current. In the Northern Gulf, large displacements occur at the borders of the basin-wide seasonally reversing eddy that dominates the large-scale circulation (cyclonic in summer, anticyclonic in winter). On the other hand, the potential for self-recruitment areas is found as particles can be trapped for longer than one month within these eddies, as well as in smaller ones in the Northern Gulf, and near the coast of the peninsular side of the Southern Gulf, where current speeds are slow and many small capes and islands are present.  相似文献   

13.
In this study, we addressed the effects of wind-induced drift on Lagrangian trajectories of surface sea objects using high-resolution ocean forecast and atmospheric data. Application of stochastic Leeway model for prediction of trajectories drift was considered for the numerical reconstruction of the Elba accident that occurred during the period 21.06.2009–22.06.2009: a person on an inflatable raft was lost in the vicinity of the Elba Island coast; from the initial position, the person on a raft drifted southwards in the open sea and later he was found on a partially deflated raft during rescue operation. For geophysical forcing, we used high-resolution currents from the Mediterranean Forecasting System and atmospheric wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. To investigate the effect of wind on trajectory behavior, numerical simulations were performed using different categories of drifter-like particles similar to a person on an inflatable raft. An algorithm of spatial clustering was used to differentiate the most probable search areas with a high density of particles. Our results showed that the simulation scenarios using particles with characteristics of draft-limited sea drifters provided better prediction of an observed trajectory in terms of the probability density of particles.  相似文献   

14.
A long range transport model and its application to an Etna plume are described. The model is a classical segmented plume lagrangian trajectory model. Firstly, air mass trajectories are computed by using the actual winds observed at the E.C.M.W.F. (Reading U.K.). The model then determines 5-day trajectories starting every 3 hours and made of 3-hour segments. Vertical movements of air parcels are taken into account by using the vertical component of the synoptic wind. Secondly, diffusion, SO2 to SO4 transformation and dry deposition are calculated for each trajectory segment. Sensitivity tests are presented and the results of the simulation for an experimental field period (21–25 september 1983) are examined.  相似文献   

15.
Lagrangian passive tracer transport simulations covering the 46-year period 1958-2003 were utilized to compare the exposures of different parts of the German North Sea coast to ship-related chronic oil pollution. Assuming the spatial distribution of oil releases to be proportional to estimated ship traffic density, detailed drift reconstructions allowed for the reconstruction of wind-induced inter-annual variations in coastal pollution. For the winter months, a statistical relationship between simulated advective transports and prevailing sea surface pressure fields was established via Canonical Correlation Analysis. Wind effects were found to be more important for the northern (Schleswig-Holstein) than for the southern (Lower Saxony) part of the German North Sea coast. For Schleswig-Holstein, simulations showed consensus with beached bird survey data from this region. Proper identification of weather-driven inter-annual and spatial variations in monitoring data helps to avert misjudgments with regard to trends in the general level of chronic oil pollution.  相似文献   

16.
Modeling of suspended sediment particle movement in surface water can be achieved by stochastic particle tracking model approaches.In this paper,different mathematical forms of particle tracking models are introduced to describe particle movement under various flow conditions,i.e.,the stochastic diffusion process,stochastic jump process,and stochastic jump diffusion process.While the stochastic diffusion process can be used to represent the stochastic movement of suspended particles in turbulent flows,the stochastic jump and the stochastic jump diffusion processes can be used to describe suspended particle movement in the occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows.An extreme flow herein is defined as a hydrologic flow event or a hydrodynamic flow phenomenon with a low probability of occurrence and a high impact on its ambient flow environment.In this paper,the suspended sediment particle is assumed to immediately follow the extreme flows in the jump process（i.e.the time lag between the flow particle and the sediment particle in extreme flows is considered negligible）.In the proposed particle tracking models,a random term mainly caused by fluid eddy motions is modeled as a Wiener process,while the random occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows can be modeled as a Poisson process.The frequency of occurrence of the extreme flows in the proposed particle tracking model can be explicitly accounted for by the Poisson process when evaluating particle movement.The ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be obtained from the proposed stochastic models via simulations.The ensemble mean and variance of particle velocity are verified with available data.Applicability of the proposed stochastic particle tracking models for sediment transport modeling is also discussed.  相似文献   

17.
Andrew Lane 《Ocean Dynamics》2005,55(5-6):541-548
The development and application of a Lagrangian particle-tracking model to simulate sediment transport in the Mersey Estuary (UK) is described. Each of the particles (up to a million in total) is advected horizontally by the 3-D tidal currents. Related vertical movements are: (1) downwards by settlement at a prescribed velocity w s and (2) both upwards and downwards by a distance related to the vertical eddy diffusivity. In a novel departure from traditional practice, where initial distributions of surficial sediments are specified, all particles are introduced at the seaward boundary of the model. Provenance studies indicate surficial sediments are overwhelmingly of marine origin. For the predominant fine sediments, ‘cyclical convergence’ in suspended sediment concentrations is approximated after about two spring-neap tidal cycles. Comparisons are shown between the suspended sediment concentrations and net deposition rates computed by this model against observed values and earlier computations utilising both 1-D and 3-D Eulerian models. While all of these results are in broad agreement, the flexibility of the Lagrangian approach for simulating flocculation, consolidation and mixed sediments illustrates its future potential.  相似文献   

18.
Lagrangian analysis by clustering   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
We propose a new method for obtaining average velocities and eddy diffusivities from Lagrangian data. Rather than grouping the drifter-derived velocities in geographical bins, we group them by nearest-neighbor distance using a clustering algorithm. This yields sets with approximately the same number of observations, covering unequal areas. A major advantage is that, because the number of observations is the same for the clusters, the statistical accuracy is more uniform than with geographical bins. We illustrate the technique using synthetic data from a stochastic model, employing a realistic mean flow. The latter represents the surface currents in the Nordic Seas and is strongly inhomogeneous in space. We use the clustering algorithm to extract the mean velocities and diffusivities and compare the results with the corresponding quantities from the stochastic model. We perform a similar comparison with the means and diffusivities obtained with geographical bins. Clustering is more successful at capturing the mean flow and improves convergence in the eddy diffusivity estimates. We discuss both the advantages and shortcomings of the new method.  相似文献   

19.
The task of determining the origin of a drifting object after it has been located is highly complex due to the uncertainties in drift properties and environmental forcing (wind, waves, and surface currents). Usually, the origin is inferred by running a trajectory model (stochastic or deterministic) in reverse. However, this approach has some severe drawbacks, most notably the fact that many drifting objects go through nonlinear state changes underway (e.g., evaporating oil or a capsizing lifeboat). This makes it difficult to naively construct a reverse-time trajectory model which realistically predicts the earliest possible time the object may have started drifting. We propose instead a different approach where the original (forward) trajectory model is kept unaltered while an iterative seeding and selection process allows us to retain only those particles that end up within a certain time–space radius of the observation. An iterative refinement process named BAKTRAK is employed where those trajectories that do not make it to the goal are rejected, and new trajectories are spawned from successful trajectories. This allows the model to be run in the forward direction to determine the point of origin of a drifting object. The method is demonstrated using the leeway stochastic trajectory model for drifting objects due to its relative simplicity and the practical importance of being able to identify the origin of drifting objects. However, the methodology is general and even more applicable to oil drift trajectories, drifting ships, and hazardous material that exhibit nonlinear state changes such as evaporation, chemical weathering, capsizing, or swamping. The backtracking method is tested against the drift trajectory of a life raft and is shown to predict closely the initial release position of the raft and its subsequent trajectory.  相似文献   

20.
Observations of the Hudson River plume were taken in the spring of 2006 in conjunction with the Lagrangian Transport and Transformation Experiment using mooring arrays, shipboard observations, and satellite data. During this time period, the plume was subjected to a variety of wind, buoyant, and shelf forcings, which yield vastly different responses in plume structure including a downstream recirculating eddy. During weak and downwelling winds, the plume formed a narrow buoyant coastal current that propagated downstream near the internal wave speed. Freshwater transport during periods when the downwelling wind was closely aligned with the coast was near the river discharge values. During periods with a cross-shore component to the wind, freshwater transport in the coastal current estimated by the mooring array is less than the river discharge due to a widening of the plume that leads to the internal Rossby radius scaling for the plume width to be invalid. The offshore detachment of plume and formation of a downstream eddy that is observed surprisingly persisted for 2 weeks under a variety of wind forcing conditions. Comparison between mooring, shipboard, and satellite data reveal the downstream eddy is steady in time. Shipboard transects yield a freshwater content equal to the previous 3 days of river discharge. The feature itself was formed due to a large discharge following a strong onshore wind. The plume was then further modified by a brief upwelling wind and currents influenced by the Hudson Shelf Valley. The duration of the detachment and downstream eddy can be explained using a Wedderburn number which is largely consistent with the wind strength index described by Whitney and Garvine (J Geophys Res 110:C03014 1997).  相似文献   

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