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1.
The problem of waste disposal in Germany has been solved by using a combination of above-ground and underground disposal. Site selection criteria and precise criteria for the performance assessment of various types of waste disposal are available. In view of long-term safety of disposal, it is necessary to include geological and hydrogeological viewpoints in addition to purely engineering viewpoints. In particular, the geotechnical site-specific safety assessment is described, as defined by the government in “Technical Regulations on Wastes” (TA-Abfall) in the section “Underground Disposal”. This safety assessment must cover the entire system comprising waste, cavern/mine and surrounding rock. For this purpose geo-mechanical models have to be developed. According to the multi-barrier principle, the geological setting must be able to contribute significantly to isolation of the waste over longer periods. The assessment of the integrity of the geological barrier can only be performed by making calculations with validated geomechanical models. Various engineering geological data are required for the selection of a site, for the design and construction of a repository, and for a safety analysis for the post-operational phase. These data can only be attained by the execution of a comprehensive site-specific geomechanical exploration and investigation program. The planning and design of an underground repository in rock salt layers are described, as an example for the various steps of this type of safety assessment. 相似文献
2.
The greatest impediments to the widespread acceptance of back-calculated ground motion characteristics from paleoliquefaction studies typically stem from three uncertainties: (1) the significance of changes in the geotechnical properties of post-liquefied sediments (e.g., “aging” and density changes), (2) the selection of appropriate geotechnical soil indices from individual paleoliquefaction sites, and (3) the methodology for integration of back-calculated results of strength of shaking from individual paleoliquefaction sites into a regional assessment of paleoseismic strength of shaking. Presented herein are two case studies that illustrate the methods outlined by Olson et al. [Engineering Geology, this issue] for addressing these uncertainties. The first case study is for a site near Memphis, Tennessee, wherein cone penetration test data from side-by-side locations, one of liquefaction and the other of no liquefaction, are used to readily discern that the influence of post-liquefaction “aging” and density changes on the measured in situ soil indices is minimal. In the second case study, 12 sites that are at scattered locations in the Wabash Valley and that exhibit paleoliquefaction features are analyzed. The features are first provisionally attributed to the Vincennes Earthquake, which occurred around 6100 years BP, and are used to illustrate our proposed approach for selecting representative soil indices of the liquefied sediments. These indices are used in back-calculating the strength of shaking at the individual sites, the results from which are then incorporated into a regional assessment of the moment magnitude, M, of the Vincennes Earthquake. The regional assessment validated the provisional assumption that the paleoliquefaction features at the scattered sites were induced by the Vincennes Earthquake, in the main, which was determined to have M7.5. The uncertainties and assumptions used in the assessment are discussed in detail. 相似文献
4.
This is the second part of our study on the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk for Tulbagh, the settlement, located about 90 km N-E from Cape Town, where the strongest and most damaging earthquake known in the existing earthquake history of South Africa took place. This part of our study, which can be read independently from Part I, concentrates on the probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) forTulbagh. The work begins with an introduction and a historical perspective on the estimation of seismic damage to buildings. The methodology for the estimation of expected damage from a probabilistic point of view is then presented. The work closes with an application of the described methodology to a site in the vicinity of Tulbagh. 相似文献
5.
This paper presents an overview of flood characteristics with respect to their applicability for estimating and analysing direct flood damage to buildings. The approach taken is to define “flood actions” as acts which a flood could directly do to a building, potentially causing damage or failure. This definition expands the traditional approach of analysing flood damage to buildings which often focuses on damage from slow-rise flood depth. Flood actions may be energy transfers, forces, pressures, or the consequences of water or contaminant contact. This paper defines and categorises flood actions on buildings, indicating methods of quantification. The actions are classified in the following categories with respect to relative importance for flood damage assessment. - • High relevance and relatively predictable: Lateral pressure from water depth differential between the inside and outside of a building, lateral pressure from water velocity, and water contact due to slow-rise depth.
- • Relevance varies and relatively predictable: Buoyancy.
- • Relevance varies and difficult predictability: Capillary rise, erosion, debris, turbulence, waves, other velocity actions, other chemical actions, nuclear actions, and biological actions.
Due to the highly localised effects of some of the flood actions in the third category, coupled with their potentially significant impact, prediction of their impact on overall flood damage may be challenging. Awareness of their existence assists in developing an understanding of the uncertainties in flood damage estimation and analysis and in indicating areas which new research should tackle. In particular, work is needed in order to fully understand the physical processes by which flood damage arises and, hence, how flood damage may be prevented. 相似文献
6.
This paper analyzes the application of a grid-search approach for the estimation of modified Cam clay parameters from triaxial tests. By means of the systematic sampling of the error, in addition to locating the area presenting the smallest error, its “roughness”, is also characterized. This is a valuable information to evaluate the quality of the identification that has been carried out. The methodology proposed here does not aspire to be “the solution” to the problem of parameter identification. The aim is simply to provide a tool which may aid users with criteria. 相似文献
7.
ABSTRACTA core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability. 相似文献
8.
The need for storage caverns for oil and gas, and repositories for toxic chemical waste is increasing world-wide. Rock salt formations are particularly suitable for the construction of cavities for such purposes. Owing to its favourable geomechanical properties, rock salt remains stable over long periods of time without support, and it can be shown that the geological barrier of the host rock remains intact for a remarkably long time. Safety analysis must be made for each proposed site based on site-specific data. The methods of doing this are well known and related technical recommendations exist in Germany. These recommendations apply to the planning, construction, operation and post-operational management of salt caverns used for the underground disposal of hazardous wastes. In particular, geotechnical site-specific safety verification, as required by the government's technical regulations on wastes (TA-Abfall) under the section “Underground Disposal”, is required. This safety verification must cover the entire system comprising the waste, the cavern and the surrounding rocks. For this purpose geomechanical models have to be developed. The steps which must be taken when carrying out geological engineering site explorations and when determining geotechnical parameters are discussed. In addition, recommendations are made for the design and construction of underground repositories. For liquid-filled caverns, long-term sealing from the biosphere is of particular interest. In this instance it must be shown that the natural increase in pressure in the closed cavity due to long-term convergence does not exceed the fracture pressure. A special filled test (scale 1:1) has been performed to study this. 相似文献
9.
The failure probability of geotechnical structures with spatially varying soil properties is generally computed using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methodology. This approach is well known to be very time-consuming when dealing with small failure probabilities. One alternative to MCS is the subset simulation approach. This approach was mainly used in the literature in cases where the uncertain parameters are modelled by random variables. In this article, it is employed in the case where the uncertain parameters are modelled by random fields. This is illustrated through the probabilistic analysis at the serviceability limit state (SLS) of a strip footing resting on a soil with a spatially varying Young's modulus. The probabilistic numerical results have shown that the probability of exceeding a tolerable vertical displacement ( P e) calculated by subset simulation is very close to that computed by MCS methodology but with a significant reduction in the number of realisations. A parametric study to investigate the effect of the soil variability (coefficient of variation and the horizontal and vertical autocorrelation lengths of the Young's modulus) on P e was presented and discussed. Finally, a reliability-based design of strip footings was presented. It allows one to obtain the probabilistic footing breadth for a given soil variability. 相似文献
10.
Today, a large amount of knowledge is available concerning various sites of potential high active waste (HAW) repositories in salt media. Domal Zechstein salt formations have been examined at several sites in Germany. Extensive R&D work was initiated in the former Asse Salt Mine in order to explore the suitability of salt for waste isolation by laboratory tests, theoretical studies and in-situ tests with test results forming a technological base for future repository development. Resulting from the inhomogeneity of salt structures the demanded safety of a permanent repository for radioactive wastes can be demonstrated only by a specific site analysis in which the entire system, “the geological situation, the repository, and the form and amount of the wastes” and their interrelationships are taken into consideration. The site analysis has three essential tasks: (1) Assessment of the thermomechanical load capacity of the host rock, so that deposition strategies can be determined for the site; (2) Determination of the safe dimensions of the mine (e.g. stability of the caverns and safety of the operations); and (3) Evaluation of the barriers and the long-term safety analysis for the authorization procedure. The geotechnical stability analysis is a critical part of the safety assessment. Engineering–geological study of the site, laboratory and in situ-experiments, geomechanical modelling, and numerical static calculations comprise such an analysis. Within a scenario analysis — according to the multi-barrier principle, the geological setting is checked to be able to contribute significantly to the waste isolation over long periods. The assessment of the integrity of the geological barrier can only be performed by making calculations with geomechanical and hydrogeological models. The proper idealization of the host rock in a computational model is the basis of a realistic calculation of stress distribution and excavation damage effects. The determination of water permeability along discontinuities is necessary in order to evaluate the barrier efficiency of each host rock. In this paper some important processes for the performance assessment are described, namely creep and fracturing, permeability and infiltration, and halokinesis and subrosion. For the future, the role and contributions of geoscientific and rock mechanics work within the safety assessment issues (e.g. geomechanical safety indicators) must be identified in greater detail, e.g. considerations of geomechanical natural analogy for calibration of constitutive laws. 相似文献
11.
This paper proposes a methodology aimed at reconstructing the maximum thickness mobilized by shallow landslides in fine-grained soils with the aid of geological and geotechnical analyses. The methodology, implemented within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, is composed of two stages for map reconstruction and two stages for map validation. The first stage of map reconstruction is aimed at individuating the soil thickness on the basis of only topographical and geological analyses; the second stage improves the previously obtained map with the aid of morphological and geotechnical analyses that provide a thickness map usable for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment. This map is validated with the aid of both in situ investigations (stage I), and geotechnical models able to back-analyse shallow precipitation-induced landslides over a wide area (stage II). An application of the proposed methodology is provided for a test area of the Calabria region (southern Italy) that is representative of the Catanzaro Strait, where widely diffused shallow landslides in fine-grained soils systematically occur. The results highlight the usefulness and reliability of the geotechnical models when implemented with the aid of a database representative of fine-grained soils while a secondary role is played by in situ investigations that in the test site have been performed only in a few representative and accessible areas. 相似文献
12.
This paper presents a methodology to represent and propagate epistemic uncertainties within a scenario-based earthquake risk
model. Unlike randomness, epistemic uncertainty stems from incomplete, vague or imprecise information. This source of uncertainties
still requires the development of adequate tools in seismic risk analysis. We propose to use the possibility theory to represent
three types of epistemic uncertainties, namely imprecision, model uncertainty and vagueness due to qualitative information.
For illustration, an earthquake risk assessment for the city of Lourdes (Southern France) using this approach is presented.
Once adequately represented, uncertainties are propagated and they result in a family of probabilistic damage curves. The
latter is synthesized, using the concept of fuzzy random variables, by means of indicators bounding the true probability to
exceed a given damage grade. The gap between the pair of probabilistic indicators reflects the imprecise character of uncertainty
related to the model, thus picturing the extent of what is ignored and can be used in risk management. 相似文献
13.
The old potable water network in Byblos city is provided mainly from Ibrahim River nearby. Located in a seismic region, the aging network needs to tolerate seismic threats; thus, damage to the potable water network needs to be assessed. Therefore, first, enhancing infrastructure resilience is briefly discussed, noting briefly the need to bridge specifically between heritage risk management and engineering. Second, Byblos potable water network, seismicity, and geology are detailed. Third, the potable water network damage assessment methodology is presented. It encompasses hazard assessment, network inventory, damage functions, and model development. Data and maps are prepared using the Geographic Information System and then modeled in Ergo platform to obtain the damage to buried pipelines in the event of likely earthquake scenarios. Ergo is updated to consider recommended ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the Middle East region, to consider amplification of the peak ground velocity in hazard maps due to different soil types, and to consider adequate fragility functions. Moreover, different Byblos geotechnical maps, landslide hazard, and liquefaction are investigated and embedded. Damage results to pipelines are dependent on the hazard maps obtained using different GMPEs and geotechnical maps. Asbestos cement pipelines will be most damaged, followed by polyethylene and then by ductile iron. Finally, recommendations are offered to consider an improved sustainable rehabilitation solution. The study provides a better understanding of Byblos potable water network and allows the establishment of a sustainable and resilience-to-earthquake preparedness strategy and recovery plan. 相似文献
14.
The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material. 相似文献
15.
This paper describes the application and characteristics of a new net for crack statistics. The net, here called transmission net or “u-net” (“Übertragungsnetz”, “Ü-Netz”) is used in combination with a transmission table or “u-table” (“Übertragungstabelle”, “Ü-Tabelle”). Its purpose is to obtain a sphere of crack locations from a series of cracks, having been measured according to strike and inclination. The “u-net” is composed of a grid subdivided into degrees or degree-grid (“Gradnetz”) and an equal-area-grid (“flächengleiches Netz”). Having replaced the direction σ of strike by its normal δ, the cracks are registered into the meshes of the degree-grid and are there counted. Then they are transmitted into the equal-area-grid according to the percent values of the u-table. From the pattern of frequency numbers (“Häufigkeitszahlen”) in the equal-area-grid the sphere of crack locations is obtained. Particular specifications regulate the procedure for special measure values, i.e., those of the integral multiples of 5°, especially the angles of inclination τ = 0° and τ = 90° (see 1.4). With greater inaccuracies in measurements, one changes, by means of a given table (see Table V), to a degree-grid of 10°. With very small inaccuracies, on the other hand, the procedure may be simplified, the degree-grid becoming unnecessary (see 1.5). The meshes near the centre, being too long, may be avoided by an additional circle (“Zusatzkreis”—see 1.3). The “u-net” was constructed in such a way that the spheres of crack locations report the real frequency distribution at all times, free from systematic errors. This is achieved by the method that all calculations follow the principle of area equality or area proportionality on the hemisphere (see 2.1). The procedure using the “u-net” can be adapted to differential accuracies of measuring. It is especially suitable for large numbers of cracks; it is simple in calculation and may easily be programmed for digital computers. Thus the “u-net” is advantageous for all applications in which a large number of cracks has to be dealt with. Such applications are very frequent in rock mechanics, in engineering geology for the purpose of foundation of large hydraulic buildings (dams, caverns), in petrography, tectonics and in geophysical investigations such as the determination of crack structures with a view to explaining micromagnetic occurrences, for instance. Furthermore, the “u-net” is applicable not only to crack statistics but also to other similar statistical methods, e.g., to the statistics of cristal axes or to geographic frequency analyses. 相似文献
16.
Turkey is the one country in which 90% of the buildings are subject to the risk of earthquake disaster. Recent earthquakes
revealed that Turkey’s present residential reinforced-concrete constructions are insufficient in earthquake resistance. Many
of the buildings which collapsed or were severely damaged have been rehabilitated by applying simple methods, whose adequacy
is questionable. As in Japan and the United States, Turkey’s earthquake assessment studies have increased, especially after
earthquakes in 1999, In US, several methodologies and standards, such as Hazard-US (HAZUS) and Applied Technology Council
(ATC) 13-20-21 and 156, provide comprehensive earthquake loss estimation methodology for post-earthquake assessment. This
paper provides post-earthquake assessment and disaster management for Turkey. The main aim of the post-earthquake assessment
discussed is to evaluate loss and estimate damage through disaster management approach. Classification criteria for damage
are essential to determine the situation after an earthquake in both the short and long terms. The methodology includes probabilistic-based
analysis, which considers the magnitude of Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes between 1900 and 2005, for determining the probabilistic seismic
hazard for Turkey. 相似文献
18.
Derbyshire, E. and Mellors, T.W., 1988. Geological and geotechnical characteristics of some loess and loessic soils from China and Britain: a comparison. Eng. Geol., 25: 135–175. Loess and loessic deposits cover some 630,000 km2 of the surface of mainland China, the Loess Plateau of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia being the type region of this formation. Loess thickness generally exceeds 100 m over large areas of the Loess Plateau, the maximum recorded thickness being 335 m in eastern Gansu Province near the city of Lanzhou. In Britain loess and loessic deposits form part of a group of materials collectively known as “brickearth”. They occur predominantly as sporadic accumulations in the southeast of England and rarely attain a thickness of more than four metres. Despite their geographical separation, the deposits from China and Britain have a remarkable similarity in some of their physical and geotechnical characteristics. Samples from both locations have been examined and tested in the laboratory and the results are presented. The scope of the testing programme involved mineralogical analyses, soil microfabric studies using a scanning electron microscope, index testing including plasticity, grading and density measurements and the investigation of the compressibility characteristics of the soils with particular reference to their susceptibility to collapse. A soil structure model based on scanning electron microscope studies is presented and discussed in relation to the perceived mode of formation of the soils and their postdepositional history. 相似文献
19.
Slope failure or landslide is a complex geological/geotechnical problem that involves much uncertainty. In this work, a framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide is presented with a focus on the El Berrinche landslide, Honduras. One unique feature of this case study involving the El Berrinche landslide is that the stability analysis has to be carried out with limited data. Another challenge in this study is to assess possible remedial measures in a way that can easily be communicated to the government and the public. A reliability-based framework for a probabilistic assessment is proposed. With this approach, different levels of risk for landslide are assessed and the associated costs are estimated; and all information is integrated into the decision-making process for choosing a remedial action. 相似文献
20.
This paper aims to investigate the impact of sample size on geotechnical probabilistic model identification. First, the copula approach is presented to model the bivariate distribution of geotechnical parameters. Thereafter, the AIC scores are adopted to identify the best-fit marginal distribution and copula. Second, the variation of AIC scores because of small sample size is investigated using simulated data. Finally, the impact of the variation of AIC scores on identification of the best-fit marginal distribution and copula is examined. The minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are also suggested to obtain a correct identification of the probabilistic models. The results indicate that the AIC scores estimated from a small sample exhibit large variation. The variation of the AIC scores has a significant impact on probabilistic model identification. The marginal distributions and copulas have a low percentage of correct identification when sample size is small. The percentages of correct identification for the marginal distributions and copulas increase with increasing sample size. The correlation coefficient between geotechnical parameters has a much larger impact on probabilistic model identification than the COV of geotechnical parameters. The suggested minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are useful for guiding practical geotechnical site investigation. 相似文献
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