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1.
Flooding in urban area is a major natural hazard causing loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure. The major causes of urban floods include increase in precipitation due to climate change effect, drastic change in land use–land cover (LULC) and related hydrological impacts. In this study, the change in LULC between the years 1966 and 2009 is estimated from the toposheets and satellite images for the catchment of Poisar River in Mumbai, India. The delineated catchment area of the Poisar River is 20.19 km2. For the study area, there is an increase in built-up area from 16.64 to 44.08% and reduction in open space from 43.09 to 7.38% with reference to total catchment area between the years 1966 and 2009. For the flood assessment, an integrated approach of Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS), HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-River analysis system (HEC-RAS) with HEC-GeoRAS has been used. These models are integrated with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data to develop a regional model for the estimation of flood plain extent and flood hazard analysis. The impact of LULC change and effects of detention ponds on surface runoff as well as flood plain extent for different return periods have been analyzed, and flood plain maps are developed. From the analysis, it is observed that there is an increase in peak discharge from 2.6 to 20.9% for LULC change between the years 1966 and 2009 for the return periods of 200, 100, 50, 25, 10 and 2 years. For the LULC of year 2009, there is a decrease in peak discharge from 10.7% for 2-year return period to 34.5% for 200-year return period due to provision of detention ponds. There is also an increase in flood plain extent from 14.22 to 42.5% for return periods of 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for LULC change between the year 1966 and year 2009. There is decrease in flood extent from 4.5% for 25-year return period to 7.7% for 100-year return period and decrease in total flood hazard area by 14.9% due to provisions of detention pond for LULC of year 2009. The results indicate that for low return period rainfall events, the hydrological impacts are higher due to geographic characteristics of the region. The provision of detention ponds reduces the peak discharge as well as the extent of the flooded area, flood depth and flood hazard considerably. The flood plain maps and flood hazard maps generated in this study can be used by the Municipal Corporation for flood disaster and mitigation planning. The integration of available software models with GIS and remote sensing proves to be very effective for flood disaster and mitigation management planning and measures. 相似文献
2.
Giasemi G. Morianou Nektarios N. Kourgialas George P. Karatzas Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis 《Earth Science Informatics》2018,11(2):205-216
The objective of this work was the estimation of time-space hydraulic (water depth, flow velocity) and morphological (sediment transport and bank erosion) characteristics in the downstream part of a Mediterranean stream under current and future climatic conditions. The two-dimensional hydraulic model MIKE 21C was used, which has been developed specifically to simulate 2D flow and morphological changes in rivers. The model is based on an orthogonal curvilinear grid and comprises two parts: (a) the hydrodynamic part and (b) the morphological changes part. The curvilinear grid and the bathymetry file were generated using a very high-resolution DEM (1 m × 1 m). Time series discharge data from a hydrometric station introduced in the hydrodynamic part of the model. Regarding the morphological part of the model, field measurements of suspended sediment concentration and of bank erosion were used. The model was calibrated and verified using field data that were collected during high and low flow discharges. Model simulation was in good agreement with field observations as indicated by a variety of statistical measures. Next, for predicting the riverbank change, future meteorological data and river flow data for the next 10 years (2017–2027) were employed. These data series were created according to a lower and a higher emission climate change scenario. Based on the results, an increase in rainfall intensity may cause significant changes in river banks after 10 years (more than 5 m of soil loss in river meanders). Using the obtained simulation results, extreme hydrological events such as floods transporting large sediment loads and changes in river morphology can be monitored. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River Basin in Crete, Greece. 相似文献
3.
Jökulhlaups are the consequence of a sudden and significant release of meltwater from the edge of a glacier. Such floods are sourced commonly from ice-dammed lakes, but occasional volcanic eruptions beneath ice can produce intense jökulhlaups due to prodigious rates of meltwater release. Globally, volcanogenic jökulhlaups have caused fatalities and damage to infrastructure within effected catchments. Here, we present the results of one-dimensional hydraulic modelling of the inundation area of a massive, hypothetical jökulhlaup on the Jökulsá á Fjöllum River in northeast Iceland; the floodwater source for this simulation is an eruption within the ice-filled caldera of Bárðarbunga: an active volcano beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap. Remotely sensed data were used to derive a digital elevation model and to assign surface-roughness parameters. We used a HEC-RAS/HEC-GeoRAS system to host the hydraulic model; to calculate the steady water-surface elevation; to visualise the flooded area; and to assess flood hazards. Maximum discharge was set notionally at 180,000 m3 s?1 and the duration and volume of the jökulhlaup were placed at 39 h and 14 km3, respectively. During the simulated rise to maximum discharge, the mean velocity of the jökulhlaup was 2.8 m s?1 over a distance of 120 km. At the height of the jökulhlaup an area of 460 km2 was inundated. Modelling results showed that, along short reaches, stream-power values exceeded 11,000 W m?2; such energy conditions would have allowed boulders up to 10-m in diameter to be mobilised by the jökulhlaup. Unsteady flow was simulated along a 22-km reach of the flood tract and it revealed strong spatial and temporal variations in flood power. Besides providing insight into the erosional and depositional effects of a volcanogenic jökulhlaup, the modelling results enable estimates of the relative timing and location of likely flooding hazards. 相似文献
4.
Many lowland stream channels have dramatically widened over the last two centuries. There has been considerable debate about whether this widening was caused by an unusually large flood, by a series of large floods, or by decreased bank stability caused by clearing of riparian vegetation. The relative effects of floods and vegetation can be disentangled in southeastern Australia where streams have undergone both clearing of bank vegetation, and decadal sequences of relatively higher and lower flood magnitude and frequency. Archival aerial photographs of the Nepean River, in southeastern Australia, suggest that banks did not erode during periods of low flood magnitude (drought-dominated regime: from 1901–1949) whether they were cleared or not. However, during periods of flood-dominated regime (1950 to 1970s) only cleared stream banks eroded. Thus, on the upper Nepean River, clearing alone was insufficient to trigger erosion by small floods, and even large floods were unable to erode vegetated banks. The conclusion is that substantial channel widening in this river required both clearing of bank vegetation, and periods of unusually large and frequent floods. This conclusion is supported by geomechanical modelling that examine the reduction in bank shear strength arising from the loss of tree-root reinforcement. The modelling also suggests that bank instability arising from devegetation amplifies the potential for bank failure during the drawdown phase of a flood, leading to channel widening. 相似文献
5.
6.
新疆天山北坡中段河流冰凌洪水特征分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
冰凌洪水(冰洪)是新疆天山北坡中段河流冬季的一种特殊洪水,其暴发主要受气温、逆温带范围、冬季河流来水量、冰情冰厚、地势.河道弯曲率和河床条件等多种因素影响."冰洪"具有随机性、规律性和不重复性三种特性,冰凌洪水的峰型类似于暴雨洪水具有陡涨陡落的特点,峰前陡峭而落峰则相对缓一些.以四棵树河为典型流域,对冰凌洪水的成因、发展和运动规律进行研究,并发现冰凌洪水具有"水鼓冰开"现象.对四棵树河1967-2006年冰洪流量的年内、年际分布情况看,20世纪70-80年代由于冬季气候寒冷,是"冰洪"发生最多的时期;自进入20世纪90年代以来由于受全球气候变暖等因素影响,冰凌洪水呈现衰退趋势,气候变暖对冰洪影响非常大. 相似文献
7.
A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. 相似文献
8.
Human has always modified its surroundings for better adaptation which include the building of urban landscapes, dams, and engineering constructions like bridges and other infrastructures. It has been unveiled from the study of River Chel that when the rail bridge was constructed before 1913, the natural width of the river was nevertheless maintained but the problem was initiated and after the road bridge construction in 1970s when the river width was minimized,the morphological changes started in a large scale. Such modifications have affected nature as well as human communities both positively and negatively. This paper will try to portray the evolution of channel shifting and changes of sediment size regime that the River Chel is experiencing due to the construction of bridges across the middle part of its course. So, this study is concerned about the changes in channel pathway since last 100 years and field-based hydrological parameters and sediment size analysis reveals some distinct changes in the channel planform with alteration of sediment size regime. Simulation of the hydraulic modeling in HEC-RAS specifies the probable affected area with bridges and without bridges in both upstream and downstream of the river course. Hence, the study unveils the alteration of the river hydrology and sediment size caused due to anthropogenic effects and impact of such flow analysis has been evaluated through the bridge scour calculation by CUS method. The discussion concludes that the Odlabari road bridge construction (after 1970) has modified the normal hydrological behavior of the river with a higher probability of bank erosion in downstream and floods in upstream resulting river bottleneck condition. 相似文献
9.
Forecasting flood risk in the Indus River system using hydrological parameters and its damage assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Hydrological parameters are among the widely used parameters in assessing flood risk. On the other hand, anticipated flood damages, in case of flooding, are estimated with the help of expected losses in areas nearer to the watercourse. The major source of almost every-year flooding in Pakistan is the Indus River system that comprises the major rivers of Pakistan. We first use observed data to construct simulated data models based on various probability distributions namely normal, lognormal, Weibull, largest extreme value, gamma-3, and log-Pearson type-3 distributions and thereby compute probable maximum flood. Secondly, we perform log-Pearson type-3 analysis with and without historic adjustment on the observed data series of 17 years to forecast floods with return periods T of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. We also categorize the river structures based on the risk of flooding. Lastly, we estimate risk of flood damages in terms of expected losses based on observed data. The present study reveals that the log-Pearson type-3 distribution is relatively better for estimating probable maximum flood. We use exceedence probability to assess the risk of flooding in the various structures of the said rivers. The analysis shows that flood damages in Pakistan may be reduced by increasing the design capacity of the structures and also by giving awareness to people about the flood-generating factors. 相似文献
10.
分析洪峰、洪量和历时三变量联合分布与风险概率及其设计分位数,为水利工程规划设计和风险评估提供参考依据。以珠江流域西江高要站52年洪水数据为例,采用非对称阿基米德M6 Copula函数与Kendall分布函数计算三变量洪水联合分布的“或”重现期、“且”重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的设计分位数。结果表明:“或”重现期的风险率偏高,“且”重现期的风险率偏低,二次重现期更准确地反映了特定设计频率情况下三变量洪水要素遭遇的风险率;按三变量“或”重现期或三变量同频率设计值推算的洪水设计值偏高,以最大可能概率推算的三变量洪水要素的二次重现期设计值可为防洪工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。 相似文献
11.
MD. Khalequzzaman 《Natural Hazards》1994,9(1-2):65-80
In recent years the frequency of abnormal floods in Bangladesh has increased substantially, causing serious damage to lives and property. The most crucial questions that need to be addressed are: what really causes the havoc-creating floods and is there any solution to the problem? The heavy monsoon downpour and synchronization of flood-peaks of the major rivers are generally considered to be the main causes of the floods. Some underlying factors also deserve serious consideration as possible contributors to the recent floods: change in the base level of the rivers due to local sea level rise and subsidence, inadequate sediment accumulation on flood plains, a possible increase in the watershed area due to seismic and neotectonic activities in the region, river bed aggradation due to siltation and damming of rivers, soil erosion due to unwise tilling practices, deforestation in the upstream region, and excessive development and population growth. Without regional cooperation among the co-riparian nations any major interbasin flood control activity is considered to be almost impossible. However, among other proposals in this paper, extensive annual dredging of the rivers, channels and creeks, and reoccupation of the abandoned channels in Bangladesh through re-excavations could still increase the water carrying capacity of the rivers. Land elevations could be increased if the dredged or excavated materials are dispersed on the flood plains, which would in turn reduce the severity of floods. 相似文献
12.
An innovative approach in the investigation of complex landscapes for hydraulic modelling applications is the use of terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) that can lead to a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). Another notable factor in flood modelling is the selection of the hydrodynamic model (1D, 2D and 1D/2D), especially in complex riverine topographies, that can influence the accuracy of flood inundation area and mapping. This paper uses different types of hydraulic–hydrodynamic modelling approaches and several types of river and riparian area spatial resolution for the implementation of a sensitivity analysis for floodplain mapping and flood inundation modelling process at ungauged watersheds. Four data sets have been used for the construction of the river and riparian areas: processed and unprocessed TLS data, topographic land survey data and typical digitized contours from 1:5000-scale topographic maps. Modelling approaches combinations consist of: one-dimensional hydraulic models (HEC-RAS, MIKE 11), two-dimensional hydraulic models (MIKE 21, MIKE 21 FM) and combinations of coupled hydraulic models (MIKE 11/MIKE 21) within the MIKE FLOOD platform. Historical flood records and estimated flooded area derived from an observed extreme flash-flood event have been used in the validation process using 2 × 2 contingency tables. Flood inundation maps have been generated for each modelling approach and landscape configuration at the lower part of Xerias River reach at Volos, Greece, and compared for assessing the sensitivity of input data and model structure uncertainty. Results provided from contingency table analysis indicate the sensitivity of floodplain modelling on the DEM spatial resolution and the hydraulic modelling approach. 相似文献
13.
Ernieza Suhana Mokhtar Biswajeet Pradhan Abd Halim Ghazali Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(21):682
Water discharge is the main parameter in hydraulic modeling for flood hazard assessment. However, the unavailability of data on discharge and observed river morphologies resulted in erroneous calculations and irregularities in flood inundation mapping. The objectives of this study are (i) to investigate uncertainties of hydraulic parameters (width, cross-sectional depth, and channel slope) used in discharge equation and (ii) to examine the influence of estimate discharge on water extent and flood depth with different boundary conditions on interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IFSAR) and modified IFSAR DEMs. Sensitivity analysis was conducted with the Monte Carlo simulation method to generate random data combinations. Bjerklie’s equation was used to calculate discharge based on the three variables, and Manning’s n was substituted into the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. TerraSAR-X was used to distinguish existing flood water bodies and normal water extent. The uncertainty of the combined variables was assessed with the likelihood measures such as F-statistic, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency which compares observed and predicted inundated area as well as flood water depth simulated using the HEC-RAS model. 相似文献
14.
Flood is the worst weather-related hazard in Taiwan because of steep terrain and storm. The tropical storm often results in disastrous flash flood. To provide reliable forecast of water stages in rivers is indispensable for proper actions in the emergency response during flood. The river hydraulic model based on dynamic wave theory using an implicit finite-difference method is developed with river roughness updating for flash flood forecast. The artificial neural network (ANN) is employed to update the roughness of rivers in accordance with the observed river stages at each time-step of the flood routing process. Several typhoon events at Tamsui River are utilized to evaluate the accuracy of flood forecasting. The results present the adaptive n-values of roughness for river hydraulic model that can provide a better flow state for subsequent forecasting at significant locations and longitudinal profiles along rivers. 相似文献
15.
为分析西江流域灾害性洪水的风险,采用水文学分析法从洪水组成、遭遇时间以及洪峰重现期等方面,重点分析了梧州站干支流洪水遭遇规律。研究表明:梧州15场洪水中红水河、柳江、郁江及桂江的日平均流量平均比重分别为32.31%、40.57%、13.19%及9.13%;其中西江干流洪水发生时间集中在6～8月,柳江洪水发生时间集中在6～7月,桂江洪水发生时间集中在5～7月,郁江洪水发生时间集中在7～9月;西江上游红水河与柳江洪水遭遇频繁,而郁江、桂江遭遇洪水量级较小,其中全流域洪水、红水河—柳江—桂江洪水、柳江—郁江—桂江洪水三种遭遇类型所构成的梧州大洪水重现期依次约为100年、50年、20年一遇,揭示了西江干支流洪水遭遇后致使梧州站洪水重现期显著增大。研究结果可为西江流域防洪减灾提供水文分析参考。 相似文献
16.
Islam Aznarul Sarkar Biplab Saha Ujwal Deep Islam Mainul Ghosh Susmita 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(1):1019-1046
The present study has been a pioneering effort examining the role of an annual flood as a potent stimulus inducing changes in channel geomorphology of the Mayurakshi River, India. Twenty cross sections have been considered for the measurement of various hydro-geomorphic attributes of the river in both the pre- and post-flood conditions in 2018. The study sensed an escalating trend for channel width, width/depth ratio, and wetted perimeter while the reverse was also detected for average depth, maximum depth, cross-sectional area, and hydraulic radius. For example, the width/depth ratio recorded an increase of?~?11%, and the hydraulic radius depicted a decrease of?~?8%. Furthermore, channel asymmetry, bed asymmetry and bed relief index experienced a decrease after the flood. The sudden hydraulic impulse during monsoon flood as manifested in velocity, discharge, specific stream power, Reynolds number, Froude number increases the erosivity of the fluid. Besides the hydraulic factors, bank material (massive sandbank susceptible to hydraulic action and mixed bank constituted by alternate bands of sand and silt, and vulnerable to failure by piping action) brings substantial changes in channel morphology. Moreover, anthropogenic interventions such as sand mining are found to play a significant role in channel behaviour. The role of the multiple factors driving the morphological changes of the cross sections has been unpacked using canonical component analysis.
相似文献17.
ABSTRACT The ephemeral braided Hoanib River of NW Namibia flows for a few days a year, and only high discharges enable the river to pass through interdunal depressions within the northern Namib Desert dune field to the Atlantic. The dune field comprises mainly large transverse dunes resulting from predominant SSW winds. River flood deposits between aeolian dunes are analogous to mudstone layers conformably interbedded with ancient aeolianite dune foresets. Deep floods pond laterally to considerable depths (metres to >10 m) in adjacent interdunes, depositing mud layers (1–50 cm) to considerable heights on avalanche and stoss faces of bounding dunes. Fairly passive flooding only disturbs aeolian stratification minimally. Floodwater clay infiltrates and settles as an impermeable seal, with a flood pond on top, perched, above regional groundwater. Flood ponds evaporate slowly for long periods (>3 years). Early emergence desiccates higher parts of a mud layer. Subsequent floods can refill a predecessor pond, benefiting from the existing impervious seal. Potential preservation of such mud layers is lower on the stoss face, but high on the avalanche face after burial by subsequent dune reactivation and migration. The leeward (right) Hoanib bank, a dune stoss face, is river and wind eroded to exhume fossil interdune pond mud layers of an earlier Hoanib channel. The highly inclined layers are interbedded with dune avalanche foresets and represent the edges of two successive fossil ponds exposed in plan. Ancient flood pond mudstones occur in the Permian–Triassic hydrocarbon reservoir, the Sherwood Sandstone Group of the Cheshire Basin (Kinnerton Formation) and Irish Sea Basin and were previously used erroneously to argue against the aeolian origin of cross‐bed sets. Hoanib studies show that primary river interaction with a dune field might preserve only localized erosional omission surfaces in ancient aeolianites, with little sandy barform preservation, prone to aeolian reworking. Around the main fluvial channel locus, however, flood pond mudstone layers should form a predictable halo, within which fluid permeability will decrease. 相似文献
18.
In-stream structures including cross-vanes, J-hooks, rock vanes, and W-weirs are widely used in river restoration to limit bank erosion, prevent changes in channel gradient, and improve aquatic habitat. During this investigation, a rapid assessment protocol was combined with post-project monitoring data to assess factors influencing the performance of more than 558 in-stream structures and rootwads in North Carolina. Cross-sectional survey data examined for 221 cross sections from 26 sites showed that channel adjustments were highly variable from site to site, but approximately 60 % of the sites underwent at least a 20 % net change in channel capacity. Evaluation of in-stream structures ranging from 1 to 8 years in age showed that about half of the structures were impaired at 10 of the 26 sites. Major structural damage was often associated with floods of low to moderate frequency and magnitude. Failure mechanisms varied between sites and structure types, but included: (1) erosion of the channel bed and banks (outflanking); (2) movement of rock materials during floods; and (3) burial of the structures in the channel bed. Sites with reconstructed channels that exhibited large changes in channel capacity possessed the highest rates of structural impairment, suggesting that channel adjustments between structures led to their degradation of function. The data question whether currently used in-stream structures are capable of stabilizing reconfigured channels for even short periods when applied to dynamic rivers. 相似文献
19.
冰厚是冰凌成因分析及预报的重要基础信息,可为防凌减灾提供重要依据。以黄河内蒙古段包头至头道拐水文站为例,利用Sentinel-1雷达影像结合Sentinel-2光学影像对研究区河冰厚度进行估算,首先对Sentinel-2光学影像进行处理,提取凌汛期前黄河主河道边界;然后对Sentinel-1雷达影像进行处理,提取2个强度信息和4个极化分解参数,分析6个雷达特征参数与河冰厚度的相关性;选择相关性最高的参数,采用统计回归方法建立冰厚反演线性回归模型,模型的调整R2为0.657,验证RMSE为9.82 cm,MRE为13.46%,MAE为8.26 cm;对凌汛期黄河冰厚进行反演,分析冰厚时空变化特征,并估算冰储量,同时讨论了河冰的散射机制。研究证明了主动微波遥感数据在黄河冰厚反演中的可行性,可为黄河内蒙古段防凌减灾提供科学参考。 相似文献
20.
An estimation of discharge using mean velocity derived through Chiu’s velocity equation 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
To estimate discharge through the year (dry season and flood season), a stage–discharge curve derived through monitoring discharge in about 20 rivers or channels every year has been generally used. As revealed in many studies, however, the stage–discharge curve is inevitably affected by their hydraulic characteristics. This suggests that the use of a stage–discharge curve derived without considering hydraulic characteristics unique to a river or channel may produce significant errors in estimating discharge at not only low stage (during dry seasons) but also high stage (during flood seasons). In this study, the authors proposed a method to calculate the mean velocity and to estimate the discharge considering the hydraulic characteristics of a river or channel (e.g. the bed slope, wetted perimeter, width, kinematic viscosity, etc.); the method was developed using Chiu’s velocity equation. With the proposed method, it is possible to calculate a maximum velocity that is difficult to measure in an open channel, derive an entropy function representing the equilibrium of the channel, and thereby, estimate reliable discharge even in a flood season. To comparatively verify the utility of the proposed method, relations between the results of analysis using Manning’s and Chezy’s mean velocity equations and the values of measured discharge were addressed together. The results of analysis using lab data sets and measured data sets revealed that the proposed method was significantly more accurate in estimating discharge, even in flood seasons, when compared with the conventional method. 相似文献