Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Jurate Kriauciuniene  Darius Jakimavicius  Diana Sarauskiene  Tadas Kaliatka 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(4):769-784

Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.  相似文献   

Comparison of daily and sub-daily SWAT models for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin of China     

Xiaoying Yang  Qun Liu  Yi He  Xingzhang Luo  Xiaoxiang Zhang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(3):959-972

Despite the significant role of precipitation in the hydrological cycle, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the impacts of the temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on the performance of SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) models in large-sized river basins. In this study, both daily and hourly rainfall observations at 28 rainfall stations were used as inputs to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin. Study results have demonstrated that the SWAT model with hourly rainfall inputs performed better than the model with daily rainfall inputs in daily streamflow simulation, primarily due to its better capability of simulating peak flows during the flood season. The sub-daily SWAT model estimated that 58 % of streamflow was contributed by baseflow compared to 34 % estimated by the daily model. Using the future daily and 3-h precipitation projections under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 scenario as inputs, the sub-daily SWAT model predicted a larger amount of monthly maximum daily flow during the wet years than the daily model. The differences between the daily and sub-daily SWAT model simulation results indicated that temporal rainfall resolution could have much impact on the simulation of hydrological process, streamflow, and consequently pollutant transport by SWAT models. There is an imperative need for more studies to examine the effects of temporal rainfall resolution on the simulation of hydrological and water pollutant transport processes by SWAT in river basins of different environmental conditions.  相似文献   

Embedding complex hydrology in the regional climate system – Dynamic coupling across different modelling domains     

《Advances in water resources》2014

To improve our understanding of the impacts of feedback between the atmosphere and the terrestrial water cycle including groundwater and to improve the integration of water resource management modelling for climate adaption we have developed a dynamically coupled climate–hydrological modelling system. The OpenMI modelling interface is used to couple a comprehensive hydrological modelling system, MIKE SHE running on personal computers, and a regional climate modelling system, HIRHAM running on a high performance computing platform. The coupled model enables two-way interaction between the atmosphere and the groundwater via the land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions, not normally accounted for in climate models. Meso-scale processes are important for climate in general and rainfall in particular. Hydrological impacts are assessed at the catchment scale, the most important scale for water management. Feedback between groundwater, the land surface and the atmosphere occurs across a range of scales. Recognising this, the coupling was developed to allow dynamic exchange of water and energy at the catchment scale embedded within a larger meso-scale modelling domain. We present the coupling methodology used and describe the challenges in representing the exchanges between models and across scales. The coupled model is applied to one-way and two-way coupled simulations for a managed groundwater-dominated catchment, the Skjern River, Denmark. These coupled model simulations are evaluated against field observations and then compared with uncoupled climate and hydrological model simulations. Exploratory simulations show significant differences, particularly in the summer for precipitation and evapotranspiration the coupled model including groundwater and the RCM where groundwater is neglected. However, the resulting differences in the net precipitation and the catchment runoff in this groundwater dominated catchment were small. The need for further decadal scale simulations to understand the differences and insensitivity is highlighted.  相似文献   

Evaluating the performance of climate models in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of rainfall events     

Jung-Hun Song  Satbyeol Shin  Jaepil Cho  Rajendra Paudel  Yogesh P. Khare 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(9):1490-1511

ABSTRACT

Rainfall events largely control hydrological processes occurring on and in the ground, but the performance of climate models in reproducing rainfall events has not been investigated enough to guide selection among the models when making hydrological projections. We proposed to compare the durations, intensities, and pause periods, as well as depths of rainfall events when assessing the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of observed rainfall. We also compared the sizes of design storm events and the frequency and severity of drought to demonstrate the consequences of GCM selection. The results show that rainfall and extreme hydrological event projections could significantly vary depending on climate model selection and weather stations, suggesting the need for a careful and comprehensive evaluation of GCM in the hydrological analysis of climate change. The proposed methods are expected to help to improve the accuracy of future hydrological projections for water resources planning.  相似文献   

Capabilities and limitations of detailed hillslope hydrological modelling     

Axel Bronstert 《水文研究》1999,13(1):21-48

Hillslope hydrological modelling is considered to be of great importance for the understanding and quantification of hydrological processes in hilly or mountainous landscapes. In recent years a few comprehensive hydrological models have been developed at the hillslope scale which have resulted in an advanced representation of hillslope hydrological processes (including their interactions), and in some operational applications, such as in runoff and erosion studies at the field scale or lateral flow simulation in environmental and geotechnical engineering. An overview of the objectives of hillslope hydrological modelling is given, followed by a brief introduction of an exemplary comprehensive hillslope model, which stimulates a series of hydrological processes such as interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration into the soil matrix and into macropores, lateral and vertical subsurface soil water flow both in the matrix and preferential flow paths, surface runoff and channel discharge. Several examples of this model are presented and discussed in order to determine the model's capabilities and limitations. Finally, conclusions about the limitations of detailed hillslope modelling are drawn and an outlook on the future prospects of hydrological models on the hillslope scale is given.The model presented performed reasonable calculations of Hortonian surface runoff and subsequent erosion processes, given detailed information of initial soil water content and soil hydraulic conditions. The vertical and lateral soil moisture dynamics were also represented quite well. However, the given examples of model applications show that quite detailed climatic and soil data are required to obtain satisfactory results. The limitations of detailed hillslope hydrological modelling arise from different points: difficulties in the representations of certain processes (e.g. surface crusting, unsaturated–saturated soil moisture flow, macropore flow), problems of small‐scale variability, a general scarcity of detailed soil data, incomplete process parametrization and problems with the interdependent linkage of several hillslopes and channel–hillslope interactions. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Models as multiple working hypotheses: hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wouter Buytaert  Keith Beven 《水文研究》2011,25(11):1784-1799

Tropical alpine grasslands, locally known as páramos, are the water towers of the northern Andes. They are an essential water source for drinking water, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants. But despite their high socio‐economic relevance, their hydrological processes are very poorly understood. Since environmental change, ranging from small scale land‐use changes to global climate change, is expected to have a strong impact on the hydrological behaviour, a better understanding and hydrological prediction are urgently needed. In this paper, we apply a set of nine hydrological models of different complexity to a small, well monitored upland catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes. The models represent different hypotheses on the hydrological functioning of the páramo ecosystem at catchment scale. Interpretation of the results of the model prediction and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters reveals important insights in the evapotranspiration, surface runoff generation and base flow in the páramo. However, problems with boundary conditions, particularly spatial variability of precipitation, pose serious constraints on the differentiation between model representations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):613-625

Abstract

Estimates of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in 219 catchments across Australia are presented. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is defined here as the proportional change in mean annual streamflow divided by the proportional change in mean annual rainfall. The elasticity is therefore a simple estimate of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to changes in long-term rainfall, and is particularly useful as an initial estimate of climate change impact in land and water resources projects. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is estimated here using a hydrological modelling approach and a nonparametric estimator. The results indicate that the rainfall elasticity of streamflow (? _P ) in Australia is about 2.0–3.5 (observed in about 70% of the catchments), that is, a 1% change in mean annual rainfall results in a 2.0–3.5% change in mean annual streamflow. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is strongly correlated to runoff coefficient and mean annual rainfall and streamflow, where streamflow is more sensitive to rainfall in drier catchments, and those with low runoff coefficients. There is a clear relation-ship between the ? _P values estimated using the hydrological modelling approach and those estimated using the nonparametric estimator for the 219 catchments, although the values estimated by the hydrological modelling approach are, on average, slightly higher. The modelling approach is useful where a detailed study is required and where there are sufficient data to reliably develop and calibrate a hydrological model. The nonparametric estimator is useful where consistent estimates of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to climate are required, because it is simple to use and estimates the elasticity directly from the historical data. The nonparametric method, being model independent, can also be easily applied in comparative studies to data sets from many catchments across large regions.  相似文献   

Application of isotope tracers in continental scale hydrological modeling     

Balzs M. Fekete  John J. Gibson  Pradeep Aggarwal  Charles J. Vrsmarty 《Journal of Hydrology》2006,330(3-4):444-456

Isotope tracers are widely used to study hydrological processes in small catchments, but their use in continental-scale hydrological modeling has been limited. This paper describes the development of an isotope-enabled global water balance and transport model (iWBM/WTM) capable of simulating key hydrological processes and associated isotopic responses at the large scale. Simulations and comparisons of isotopic signals in precipitation and river discharge from available datasets, particularly the IAEA GNIP global precipitation climatology and the USGS river isotope dataset spanning the contiguous United States, as well as selected predictions of isotopic response in yet unmonitored areas illustrate the potential for isotopes to be applied as a diagnostic tool in water cycle model development. Various realistic and synthetic forcings of the global hydrologic and isotopic signals are discussed. The test runs demonstrate that the primary control on isotope composition of river discharge is the isotope composition of precipitation, with land surface characteristics and precipitation-amount having less impact. Despite limited availability of river isotope data at present, the application of realistic climatic and isotopic inputs in the model also provides a better understanding of the global distribution of isotopic variations in evapotranspiration and runoff, and reveals a plausible approach for constraining the partitioning of surface and subsurface runoff and the size and variability of the effective groundwater pool at the macro-scale.  相似文献   

Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment,UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD     

H. L. Cloke  C. Jeffers  F. Wetterhall  T. Byrne  J. Lowe  F. Pappenberger 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3476-3489

The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comparative influence of land and sea surfaces on the Sahelian drought: a numerical study     

Arona Diedhiou  Jean-Francçois Mahfouf 《Annales Geophysicae》1996,14(1):115-130

The aim of this work is to compare the relative impact of land and sea surface anomalies on Sahel rainfall and to describe the associated anomalies in the atmospheric general circulation. This sensitivity study was done with the Météo-France climate model: ARPEGE. The sensitivity to land surface conditions consists of changes in the management of water and heat exchanges by vegetation cover and bare soil. The sensitivity to ocean surfaces consists in forcing the lower boundary of the model with worldwide composite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies obtained from the difference between 4 dry Sahel years and 4 wet Sahel years observed since 1970. For each case, the spatiotemporal variability of the simulated rainfall anomaly and changes in the modelled tropical easterly jet (TEJ) and African easterly jet (AEJ) are discussed. The global changes in land surface evaporation have caused a rainfall deficit over the Sahel and over the Guinea Coast. No significant changes in the simulated TEJ and an enhancement of the AEJ are found; at the surface, the energy budget and the hydrological cycle are substantially modified. On the other hand, SST anomalies induce a negative rainfall anomaly over the Sahel and a positive rainfall anomaly to the south of this area. The rainfall deficit due to those anomalies is consistent with previous diagnostic and sensitivity studies. The TEJ is weaker and the AEJ is stronger than in the reference. The composite impact of SST and land surfaces anomalies is also analyzed: the simulated rainfall anomaly is similar to the observed mean African drought patterns. This work suggests that large-scale variations of surface conditions may have a substantial influence on Sahel rainfall and shows the importance of land surface parameterization in climate change modelling. In addition, it points out the interest in accurately considering the land and sea surfaces conditions in sensitivity studies on Sahel rainfall.  相似文献   

Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain     

V. A. Bell  H. N. Davies  A. L. Kay  T. J. Marsh  A. Brookshaw  A. Jenkins 《水文研究》2013,27(20):3003-3012

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic input signal in a partly forested catchment: Implications for hydrograph separation     

Carles Cayuela  Jrme Latron  Josie Geris  Pilar Llorens 《水文研究》2019,33(1):36-46

The isotopic composition of precipitation (D and ¹⁸O) has been widely used as an input signal in water tracer studies. Whereas much recent effort has been put into developing methodologies to improve our understanding and modelling of hydrological processes (e.g., transit‐time distributions or young water fractions), less attention has been paid to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation, used as input signal in these studies. Here, we investigated the uncertainty in isotope‐based hydrograph separation due to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation. The study was carried out in a Mediterranean headwater catchment (0.56 km²). Rainfall and throughfall samples were collected at three locations across this relatively small catchment, and stream water samples were collected at the outlet. Results showed that throughout an event, the spatial variability of the input signal had a higher impact on hydrograph separation results than its temporal variability. However, differences in isotope‐based hydrograph separation determined preevent water due to the spatio‐temporal variability were different between events and ranged between 1 and 14%. Based on catchment‐scale isoscapes, the most representative sampling location could also be identified. This study confirms that even in small headwater catchments, spatio‐temporal variability can be significant. Therefore, it is important to characterize this variability and identify the best sampling strategy to reduce the uncertainty in our understanding of catchment hydrological processes.  相似文献   

Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain     

T. Estrela 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1154-1167

Abstract

Impacts on water resources produced by climate change can be exacerbated when occurring in regions already presenting low water resources levels and frequent droughts, and subject to imbalances between water demands and available resources. Within Europe, according to existing climate change scenarios, water resources will be severely affected in Spain. However, the detection of those effects is not simple, because the natural variability of the water cycle and the effects of water abstractions on flow discharges complicate the establishment of clear trends. Therefore, there is a need to improve the assessment of climate change impacts by using hydrological simulation models. This paper reviews water resources and their variability in Spain, the recent modelling studies on hydrological effects of climate change, expected impacts on water resources, the implications in river basins and the current policy actions.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Estrela, T., Pérez-Martin, M.A., and Vargas, E., 2012. Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1154–1167.  相似文献   

Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 2: process‐based evaluation of model hypotheses     

Martyn P. Clark  Hilary K. McMillan  Daniel B. G. Collins  Dmitri Kavetski  Ross A. Woods 《水文研究》2011,25(4):523-543

The current generation of hydrological models has been widely criticized for their inability to adequately simulate hydrological processes. In this study, we evaluate competing model representations of hydrological processes with respect to their capability to simulate observed processes in the Mahurangi River basin in Northland, New Zealand. In the first part of this two‐part series, the precipitation, soil moisture, and flow data in the Mahurangi were used to estimate the dominant hydrological processes and explore several options for their suitable mathematical representation. In this paper, diagnostic tests are applied to gain several insights for model selection. The analysis highlights dominant hydrological processes (e.g. the importance of vertical drainage and baseflow compared to sub‐surface stormflow), provides guidance for the choice of modelling approaches (e.g. implicitly representing sub‐grid heterogeneity in soils), and helps infer appropriate values for model parameters. The approach used in this paper demonstrates the benefits of flexible model structures in the context of hypothesis testing, in particular, supporting a more systematic exploration of current ambiguities in hydrological process representation. The challenge for the hydrological community is to make better use of the available data, not only to estimate parameter values but also to diagnostically identify more scientifically defensible model structures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A hydropedological approach to simulate streamflow and soil water contents with SWAT+     

Johan van Tol  Katrin Bieger  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14242

Reflecting internal catchment hydrological processes in hydrological models is important for accurate predictions of the impact of climate and land-use change on water resources. Characterizing these processes is however difficult and expensive due to their dynamic nature and spatio-temporal variability. Hydropedology is a relatively new discipline focusing on the synergistic integration of hydrology, soil physics and pedology. Hydropedological interpretations of soils and soil distribution can be used to characterize key hydrological processes, especially in areas with no or limited hydrometric measurements. Here we applied a hydropedological approach to reflect flowpaths through detailed routing in SWAT+ for a 157 ha catchment (Weatherley) in South Africa. We compared the hydropedological approach and a standard (no routing) approach against measured streamflow (two weirs) and soil water contents (13 locations). The catchment was treated as ‘ungauged’ and the model was not calibrated against hydrometric measurements in order to determine the direct contribution of hydropedology on modelling efficiency. Streamflow was predicted well without calibration (NSE > 0.8; R² > 0.82) for both approaches at both weirs. The standard approach yielded slightly better streamflow predictions. The hydropedological approach resulted in considerable improvements in the simulation of soil water contents (R² increased from 0.40 to 0.49 and PBIAS decreased from 40% to 20%). The routing capacity of SWAT+ as employed in the hydropedological approach reduced the underestimation of wetland water regimes drastically and resulted in a more accurate representation of the dominant hydrological processes in this catchment. We concluded that hydropedology can be a valuable source of ‘soft data’ to reflect internal catchment structure and processes and, potentially, for realistic calibrations in other studies, especially those conducted in areas with limited hydrometric measurements.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of pore‐water pressures in residual soil slopes in a tropical climate     

R. B. Rezaur  H. Rahardjo  E. C. Leong 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(3):317-338

It is critical to understand and quantify the temporal and spatial variability in hillslope hydrological data in order to advance hillslope hydrological studies, evaluate distributed parameter hydrological models, analyse variability in hydrological response of slopes and design efficient field data sampling networks. The spatial and temporal variability of field‐measured pore‐water pressures in three residual soil slopes in Singapore was investigated using geostatistical methods. Parameters of the semivariograms, namely the range, sill and nugget effect, revealed interesting insights into the spatial structure of the temporal situation of pore‐water pressures in the slopes. While informative, mean estimates have been shown to be inadequate for modelling purposes, indicator semivariograms together with mean prediction by kriging provide a better form of model input. Results also indicate that significant temporal and spatial variability in pore‐water pressures exists in the slope profile and thereby induces variability in hydrological response of the slope. Spatial and temporal variability in pore‐water pressure decreases with increasing soil depth. The variability decreases during wet conditions as the slope approaches near saturation and the variability increases with high matric suction development following rainfall periods. Variability in pore‐water pressures is greatest at shallow depths and near the slope crest and is strongly influenced by the combined action of microclimate, vegetation and soil properties. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Kara River basin (West Africa) using a lumped metric conceptual model     

Hèou Maléki Badjana  Manfred Fink  Jörg Helmschrot  Bernd Diekkrüger  Sven Kralisch  Abel Akambi Afouda 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(7):1094-1113

This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.