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1.
Water Resources - The aims of this study was to identify the groundwater level (GWL) trend and dominant periodic component of Ardabil plain (North-west of Iran) using three variations of the...  相似文献   

2.
The Ardebil plain, which is located in northwest Iran, has been faced with a recent and severe decline in groundwater level caused by a decrease of precipitation, successive long‐term droughts, and overexploitation of groundwater for irrigating the farmlands. Predictions of groundwater levels can help planners to deal with persistent water deficiencies. In this study, the support vector regression (SVR) and M5 decision tree models were used to predict the groundwater level in Ardebil plain. The monthly groundwater level data from 24 piezometers for a 17‐year period (1997 to 2013) were used for training and test of models. The model inputs included the groundwater levels of previous months, the volume of entering precipitation into every cell, and the discharge of wells. The model output was the groundwater level in the current month. In order to evaluate the performance of models, the correlation coefficient (R) and the root‐mean‐square error criteria were used. The results indicated that both SVR and M5 decision tree models performed well for the prediction of groundwater level in the Ardebil plain. However, the results obtained from the M5 decision tree model are more straightforward, more easily applied, and simpler to interpret than those from the SVR. The highest accuracy was obtained using the SVR model to predict the groundwater level from the Ghareh Hasanloo and Khalifeloo piezometers with R = 0.996 and R = 0.983, respectively.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

Groundwater-level time series often have a substantial number of missing values which should be taken into consideration before using them for further analysis, particularly for numerical groundwater flow modelling applications. This study aims to comprehensively compare two data-driven models, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multichannel spectrum analysis (MSSA), to reconstruct groundwater-level time series and impute the missing values for 25 piezometric stations in Ardabil Plain, northwest Iran. The reconstructed groundwater-level time series are assessed against the complete observed groundwater time series, while the imputed values are appraised against the artificially created gap values. The results show that both SSA and MSSA demonstrate a solid competency in imputation and reconstruction of groundwater-level data. However, depending on the spatial correlation between the piezometers, and the most suitable probability distribution function (pdf) fitted to the time series of each piezometer, the performance may vary from piezometer to piezometer.  相似文献   

4.
ABSTRACT

This study assesses the climate change impact on rainfall and drought incidents across Nigeria. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests and lag-1 serial correlation were adopted to analyse the trends and variability of rainfall and drought at 18 synoptic stations. Analysis of annual precipitation series indicates an increase in rainfall amounts at all stations, except Minna, Gusau and Yola. Seventeen of the 18 stations recorded at least one main drought period, between 1983 and 1987. A decreasing trend for the standardized precipitation index SPI-12 series was seen at Yola station, while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Also, Nigeria witnessed more annual rainfall totals but with high variability within the rainy months of the year in the first 15 years of the 21st century compared to the 20th century. Such variability in rainfall may have a significant effect on groundwater resources and the hydrology of Nigeria.  相似文献   

5.
The aim of this study was to investigate rainfall–groundwater dynamics over space and annual time scales in a hard‐rock aquifer system of India by employing time series, geographic information system and geostatistical modelling techniques. Trends in 43‐year (1965–2007) annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations and 16‐year (1991–2006) pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels of 140 sites were identified by using Mann–Kendall, Spearman rank order correlation and Kendall rank correlation tests. Trends were quantified by Kendall slope method. Furthermore, the study involves novelty of examining homogeneity of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels, for the first time, by applying seven tests. Regression analysis between rainfall and post‐monsoon groundwater levels was performed. The pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels for four periods – 1991–1994, 1995–1998, 1999–2002 and 2003–2006 – were subjected to geographic information system‐based geostatistical modelling. The rainfall showed considerable spatiotemporal variations, with a declining trend at the Mavli rainfall station (p‐value < 0.05). The Levene's tests revealed spatial homogeneity of rainfall at α = 0.05. Regression analyses indicated significant relationships (r2 > 0.5) between groundwater level and rainfall for eight rainfall stations. Non‐homogeneity and declining trends in the groundwater level, attributed to anthropogenic and hydrologic factors, were found at 5–61 more sites in pre‐monsoon compared with post‐monsoon season. The groundwater declining rates in phyllite–schist, gneiss, schist and granite formations were found to be 0.18, 0.26, 0.21 and 0.14 m year?1 and 0.13, 0.19, 0.16 and 0.02 m year?1 during the pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons, respectively. The geostatistical analyses for four time periods revealed linkages between the rainfall and groundwater levels. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The environment of Bosten Lake in the Mid-Eastern Yanqi Basin (MEYB), an arid inland area in northwest China, has deteriorated greatly due to increasing groundwater exploitation and changes in the interactions between groundwater and surface water. This study intended to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of groundwater and surface water across the entire MEYB over the period 2000–2013. The applicable groundwater flow model and mass balance calculation method for river water were constructed to evaluate the change in groundwater recharged by and discharged to different segments of the Kaidu River. Simulation results show that the entire river seepage in the MEYB increased from 1.05 to 6.17 × 108 m3/year between 2000 and 2013. The increasing river seepage, induced by increasing groundwater exploitation, plays the most important role in the water level decline in the downstream reaches of the Kaidu River and in Bosten Lake. This implies that the current utilization of groundwater resources in the MEYB is unsustainable.  相似文献   

7.
In present paper, wavelet analysis of total dissolved solid that monitored at Nazlu Chay (northwest of Iran), Tajan (north of Iran), Zayandeh Rud (central of Iran) and Helleh (south of Iran) basins with various climatic conditions, have been studied. Daubechies wavelet at suitable level (db4) has been calculated for TDS of each selected basins. The performance of artificial neural networks (ANN), two different adaptive-neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) including ANFIS with grid partition (ANFIS-GP) and ANFIS with subtractive clustering (ANFIS-SC), gene expression programming (GEP), wavelet-ANN, wavelet-ANFIS and wavelet-GEP in predicting TDS of mentioned basins were assessed over a period of 20 years at twelve different hydrometric stations. EC (μmhos/cm), Na (meq L?1) and Cl (meq L?1) parameters were selected (based on Pearson correlation) as input variables to forecast amount of TDS in four studied basins. To develop hybrid wavelet-AI models, the original observed data series was decomposed into sub-time series using Daubechies wavelets at suitable level for each basin. Based on the statistical criteria of correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), the hybrid wavelet-AI models performance were better than single AI models in all basins. A comparison was made between these artificial intelligence approaches which emphasized the superiority of wavelet-GEP over the other intelligent models with amount of RMSE 18.978, 6.774, 9.639 and 318.363 mg/l, in Nazlu Chay, Tajan, Zayandeh Rud and Helleh basins, respectively.  相似文献   

8.
Analysis of spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is important in arid and semi‐arid regions where water resources are limited. The main aim of this study was to analyse the spatial distribution and the annual, seasonal and monthly trends of the Penman–Monteith ETo for 21 stations in the arid and semi‐arid regions of Iran. Three statistical tests the Mann‐Kendall, Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The analysis revealed that ETo increased from January to July and deceased from July to December at almost all stations. Additionally, higher annual ETo values were found in the southeast of the study region and lower values in the northwest of the region. Although the results showed both positive and negative trends in annual ETo series, ETo generally increased, significantly so in six (～30%) of the stations. Analysis of the impacts of meteorological variables on the temporal trends of ETo indicated that the increasing trend of ETo was most likely due to a significant increase in minimum air temperature, while decreasing trend of ETo was mainly caused by a significant decrease in wind speed. At the sites where increasing ETo trends were statistically significant, the rate of increase varied from (+)8·36 mm/year at Mashhad station to (+)31·68 mm/year at Iranshahr station. On average, an increasing trend of (+)4·42 mm/year was obtained for the whole study area during the last four decades. Seasonal and monthly ETo have also tended to increase at the majority of the stations. The greatest numbers of significant trends were observed in winter on the seasonal time‐scale and in September on the monthly time‐scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Investigation of the precipitation phenomenon as one of the most important meteorological factors directly affecting access to water resources is of paramount importance. In this study, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) was calculated using annual precipitation data from 34 synoptic stations of Iran over a 50-year period (1961–2010). The trend of precipitation and the PCI index were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test after removing the effect of autocorrelation coefficients in annual and seasonal time scales. The results of zoning the studied index at annual time scale revealed that precipitation concentration follows a similar trend within two 25-year subscales. Furthermore, the PCI index in central and southern regions of the country, including the stations of Kerman, Bandarabbas, Yazd, Zahedan, Shahrekord, Birjand, Bushehr, Ahwaz, and Esfahan indicates a strong irregularity and high concentration in atmospheric precipitations. In annual time scale, none of the studied stations, had shown regular concentration (PCI < 10). Analyzing the trend of PCI index during the period of 1961–2010 witnessed an insignificant increasing (decreasing) trend in 16 (15) stations for winter season, respectively, while it faced a significant negative trend in Dezful, Saghez, and Hamedan stations. Similarly, in spring, Kerman and Ramsar stations exhibited a significant increasing trend in the PCI index, implying significant development of precipitation concentration irregularities in these two stations. In summer, Gorgan station showed a strong and significant irregularity for the PCI index and in autumn, Tabriz and Zahedan (Babolsar) stations experienced a significant increasing (decreasing) trend in the PCI index. At the annual time scale, 50 % of stations experienced an increasing trend in the PCI index. Investigating the changes in the precipitation trend also revealed that in annual time scale, about 58 % of the stations had a decreasing trend. In winter, which is the rainiest season in Iran, about 64 % of stations experienced a decreasing trend in precipitation that caused an increasing trend in PCI index. Comparing the spatial distribution of PCI index within two 25 years sub-periods indicated that the PCI index of the second sub-period increased in the spring time scale that means irregularity of precipitation distribution has been increased. But in the other seasons any significant variations were not observed. Also in the annual time scale the PCI index increased in the second sub-period because of the increasing trend of precipitation.  相似文献   

10.
In order to maintain the scenic and eco-environmental values of a lake, we need to characterize its water interactions. Shahu Lake was used as a case study to show the interactions among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater in an arid region. Shahu Lake is located in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of northwest China and has an area of 13.96 km2 and an average depth of 2.2 m. The groundwater modelling software MODFLOW was used. The analysis results show that hydraulic connectivity among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater is the crucial driving factor that affects the water level in Shahu Lake. The lake water level is highly sensitive to the volume of replenishment water. The groundwater is of great importance in balancing the water level in the lake and preventing it from drying up. It was determined that 13.8 × 106 m3/yr is the optimal volume of replenishment water for Shahu Lake in order to maintain the lake level at its normal state and also to make the best use of available water resources on a long-term basis. Understanding of the water interactions can promote effective management of water resources in Shahu Lake.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Hughes  相似文献   

11.
张立  赵洪声  刘耀炜 《地震》2008,28(2):123-130
利用云南地区多年的水位资料, 使用水位年变化率动态图像方法进行分析, 结果表明: ① 云南地区水位的年变化幅度似与未来地震强度有一定正比关系, 特别当某年水位最大变化率上升幅度大于0.35或下降幅度大于-0.35时, 次年往往会发生MS≥6强震; ② 水位异常对应地震有区域性特征, 滇西北至滇东北地区以水位上升对应地震为主, 滇西南和滇西以水位下降对应地震为主; ③ 2000年以来云南绝大部分MS≥5地震的发震地点都位于前一年水位上升(或下降)极值区或次极值区附近水位梯度较大的地带上。  相似文献   

12.
Water resources and soil erosion are the most important environmental concerns in the Yangtze River basin, where soil erosion and sediment yield are closely related to rainfall erosivity. The present study explores the spatial and temporal changing patterns of the rainfall erosivity in the Yangtze River basin of China during 1960–2005 at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. The Mann–Kendall test is employed to detect the trends during 1960–2005, and the T test is applied to investigate possible changes between 1991–2005 and 1960–1990. Meanwhile the Rescaled Range Analysis is used for exploring future trend of rainfall erosivity. Moreover the continuous wavelet transform technique is using studying the periodicity of the rainfall erosivity. The results show that: (1) The Yangtze River basin is an area characterized by uneven spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in China, with the annual average rainfall erosivity range from 131.21 to 16842 MJ mm ha?1 h?1. (2) Although the directions of trends in annual rainfall erosivity at most stations are upward, only 22 stations have significant trends at the 90 % confidence level, and these stations are mainly located in the Jinshajiang River basin and Boyang Lake basin. Winter and summer are the seasons showing strong upward trends. For the monthly series, significant increasing trends are mainly found during January, June and July. (3) Generally speaking, the results detected by the T test are quite consistent with those detected by the Mann–Kendall test. (4) The rainfall erosivity of Yangtze River basin during winter and summer will maintain a detected significant increasing trend in the near future, which may bring greater risks to soil erosion. (5) The annual and seasonal erosivity of Yangtze River basin all have one significant periodicity of 2–4 years.  相似文献   

13.
We process the standard 30 s, static GPS data and the 1 s, high-rate GPS (HRGPS) data provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China with GAMIT/GLOBK software package, and obtain the co-seismic displacements of near field and far field, and the epoch-by-epoch time series of HRGPS during Lushan earthquake. GPS data from about 20 sites in Sichuan province, which located between 40 and 450 km from the epicenter, are analyzed so as to study the characteristics of the static displacements and the dynamic crustal deformations, with periods ranging from several minutes to over a month. The result shows that: the static displacements caused by Lushan earthquake are limited to several centimeters; the nearest station SCTQ at 43 km from the epicenter has the largest static displacement of about 2 cm, while the other stations generally have insignificant displacements of less than 5 mm. the stations in the east of Sichuan–Yunnan region shifts 5–10 mm toward the southwest, and the stations in the middle-west of Sichuan Basin moves indistinctively 1–2 mm toward the northwest; station SCTQ has the largest kinematic displacement of about 4 and 3 cm peak-to-peak on the north and east component, respectively, and is much greater than the static permanent displacement; for the stations located at a distance greater than 150 km from the epicenter, the kinematic motions are generally insignificant; exceptionally, station SCNC and station SCSN in central Sichuan Basin have significant kinematic motions although they are more than 200 km away from the epicenter.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Statistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980–2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET0 trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET0 series.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., 2013. Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 165–180.  相似文献   

15.
Variations in crustal thickness in the Zagros determined by joint inversion of P wave receiver functions (RFs) and Rayleigh wave group and phase velocity dispersion. The time domain iterative deconvolution procedure was employed to compute RFs from teleseismic recordings at seven broadband stations of INSN network. Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves were estimated employing two-station method. Fundamental mode Rayleigh wave group velocities for each station is taken from a regional scale surface wave tomographic imaging. The main variations in crustal thickness that we observe are between stations located in the Zagros fold and thrust belt with those located in the Sanandaj–Sirjan zone (SSZ) and Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic assemblage (UDMA). Our results indicate that the average crustal thickness beneath the Zagros Mountain Range varies from ～46 km in Western and Central Zagros beneath SHGR and GHIR up to ～50 km beneath BNDS located in easternmost of the Zagros. Toward NE, we observe an increase in Moho depth where it reaches ～58 km beneath SNGE located in the SSZ. Average crustal thickness also varies beneath the UDMA from ～50 km in western parts below ASAO to ～58 in central parts below NASN. The observed variation along the SSZ and UDMA may be associated to ongoing slab steepening or break off in the NW Zagros, comparing under thrusting of the Arabian plate beneath Central Zagros. The results show that in Central Iran, the crustal thickness decrease again to ～47 km below KRBR. There is not a significant crustal thickness difference along the Zagros fold and thrust belt. We found the same crystalline crust of ～34 km thick beneath the different parts of the Zagros fold and thrust belt. The similarity of crustal structure suggests that the crust of the Zagros fold and thrust belt was uniform before subsidence and deposition of the sediments. Our results confirm that the shortening of the western and eastern parts of the Zagros basement is small and has only started recently.  相似文献   

16.
Drought/wetness conditions are fundamental not only for agricultural production but also ecology, human health, and economic activity. Dryness/wetness is a function of precipitation, temperature, vegetation and potential evapotranspiration. Regions with low moisture are often characterized by aridity which, in turn, reflects the degree of meteorological drought. Observed climatic data from eleven meteorological stations in and around Shiyang River basin, China, were used to calculate the aridity index (AI) which was defined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) to precipitation (P). ET0 was calculated using the Penman–Monteith method. The ordinary kriging method was used to interpolate the spatial variability of ET0, P and AI. The Mann–Kendall test with a pre-whitening method was employed using the Yue and Wang autocorrelation correction to detect temporal trends. The Theil–Sen estimator was used to estimate the slopes of trend lines. Results showed a higher AI in the north basin and a lower AI in the Qilian Mountain region. Annual ET0 and P had increasing trends with a slope of 0.672 and 0.459 mm per year, respectively, but trends were not statistically significant for most stations. While annual AI had a slight decreasing trend with a slope of ?0.01 per year, the trend was not statistically significant for all stations. The decreasing trends in winter AI (at a rate of ?0.313/a) was more significant than that in other seasons. The study indicates that the Shiyang River basin is getting slightly wetter, especially in winter.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

The quantification of natural recharge rate is a prerequisite for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management. Since groundwater is the only source of water supply in the West Bank, it is of utmost importance to estimate the rate of replenishment of the aquifers. The chloride mass-balance method was used to estimate recharge rates at different sites representing the three groundwater basins of the Mountain Aquifer in the West Bank. The recharge rate for the Eastern Basin was calculated as between 130.8 and 269.7 mm/year, with a total average replenishment volume of 290.3 × 106 m3/year. For the Northeastern Basin, the calculated recharge rate ranged between 95.2 and 269.7 mm/year, with a total average recharge volume of 138.5 × 106 m3/year. Finally, the recharge rate for the Western Basin was between 122.6 and 323.6 mm/year, with a total average recharge volume of 324.9 × 106 m3/year. The data reveal a replenishment potential within the estimated replenishment volumes of previous studies for the same area. Also, the range was between 15 and 50% of total rainfall, which is still within the range of previous studies. The geological structure and the climate conditions of the western slope were clearly play an important role in the increment of total volume. In some cases, such as the geological formations in the Northeastern Basin, the interaction between Eocene and Senonian chalk formations result in minimum recharge rates.

Citation Marei, A., Khayat, S., Weise, S., Ghannam, S., Sbaih, M. & Geyer, S. (2010) Estimating groundwater recharge using the chloride mass-balance method in the West Bank, Palestine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 780–791.  相似文献   

18.
This study aims to develop an improved time series model to overcome difficulties in modeling monthly short term stream flows. The periodic, serial dependent and independent components of the classical time series models are improved separately by information transfer from a surrounding long term gauging station to the considered flow section having short term records. Eventually, an improved model preserving the mathematical model structure of the classical time series model, while improving general and monthly statistics of the monthly stream flows, is derived by using the improved components instead of the short term model components in the time series modeling. The correlative relationships between the current short term and surrounding long term stations are used to improve periodic and serial dependent behaviors of monthly flows. Independent components (residuals) are improved via the parameters defining their theoretical probability distribution. The improved model approach is tested by using 50 year records of Göksu-Himmetli (1801) and Göksu-Gökdere (1805) flow monitoring stations located on the Ceyhan river basin, in south of Turkey. After 50 year records of the station 1801 are separated into five 10 year sub series, their improved and classical time series models are computed and compared with the real long-term (50 year) time series model of this station to reveal efficiencies of the improved models for each subseries (sub terms with 10 year observation). The comparisons are realized based on the model components, model estimates and general/monthly statistics of model estimates. Finally, some evaluations are made on the results compared to the regression method classically applied in the literature.  相似文献   

19.
We computed P and S receiver functions to investigate the lithospheric structure beneath the northwest Iran and compute the Vp/Vs ratio within the crust of this seismologically active area. Our results enabled us to map the lateral variations of the Moho as well as those of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) beneath this region. We selected data from teleseismic events (Mb?>?5.5, epicentral distance between 30° and 95° for P receiver functions and Mb?>?5.7, epicentral distance between 60° and 85° for S receiver functions) recorded from 1995 to 2008 at 8 three-component short-period stations of Tabriz Telemetry Seismic Network. Our results obtained from P receiver functions indicate clear conversions at the Moho boundary. The Moho depth was firstly estimated from the delay time of the Moho converted phase relative to the direct P wave. Then we used the H-Vp/Vs stacking algorithm of Zhu and Kanamori to estimate the crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio underneath the stations with clear Moho multiples. We found an average Moho depth of 48 km, which varies between 38.5 and 53 km. The Moho boundary showed a significant deepening towards east and north. This may reveal a crustal thickening towards northeast possibly due to the collision between the Central Iran and South Caspian plates. The obtained average Vp/Vs ratio was estimated to be 1.76, which varies between 1.73 and 1.82. The crustal structure was also determined by modeling of P receiver functions. We obtained a three-layered model for the crust beneath this area. The thickness of the layers is estimated to be 6–11, 18–35, and 38–53 km, respectively. The average of the shear wave velocity was calculated to be 3.4 km/s in the crust and reaches 4.3 km/s below the Moho discontinuity. The crustal thickness values obtained from P receiver functions are in good agreement with those derived by S receiver functions. In addition, clear conversions with negative polarity were observed at ~8.7 s in S receiver functions, which could be related to the conversion at the LAB. This may show a relatively thin continental lithosphere of about 85 km implying that the lithosphere was influenced by various geodynamical reworking processes in the past.  相似文献   

20.
The drastic expansion of cities and the rapid economic growth in Korea have caused dramatic increases to demand from groundwater supplies for drinking, domestic, agricultural and industrial water usage. The Ministry of Construction and Transportation and the Korea Water Resources Corporation have constructed and operated the National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN) throughout the country since 1995. The NGMN, an official project establishing a total of 320 groundwater monitoring stations, was completed in 2005. Each national groundwater monitoring station serves as a baseline and primary station to monitor long‐term general trends in water‐level fluctuations and in groundwater quality. The present NGMN and its monitoring capabilities were evaluated to enhance the efficiency of groundwater monitoring and to meet the new societal conditions. Based on reviews and evaluations, some suggestions and recommendations are made with regard to improvements of the national network, including the installation of rainfall gauges in groundwater monitoring stations, gathering groundwater data every hour instead of every 6 h as at present, involving major cations and anions in the regular and periodic chemical analyses, regular periodic analyses of collected groundwater data, and construction of 199 additional groundwater monitoring stations to supplement the existing groundwater monitoring network. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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