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1.
This paper presents the calibration of Omori's aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters(a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of Mw ≥ 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a =-1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of different time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey.  相似文献   

2.
Mount Nemrut, an active stratovolcano in eastern Turkey, is a great danger for its vicinity. The volcano possesses a summit caldera which cuts the volcano into two stages, i.e. pre- and post-caldera. Wisps of smoke and hot springs are to be found within the caldera. Although the last recorded volcanic activity is known to have been in 1441, we consider here that the last eruption of Nemrut occurred more recently, probably just before 1597. The present active tectonic regime, historical eruptions, occurrence of mantle-derived magmatic gases and the fumarole and hot spring activities on the caldera floor make Nemrut Volcano a real danger for its vicinity. According to the volcanological past of Nemrut, the styles of expected eruptions are well-focused on two types: (1) occurrence of water within the caldera leads to phreatomagmatic (highly energetic) eruptions, subsequently followed by lava extrusions, and (2) effusions–extrusions (non-explosive or weakly energetic eruptions) on the flanks from fissures. To predict the impact area of future eruptions, a series of morphological analyses based on field observations, Digital Elevation Model and satellite images were realized. Twenty-two valleys (main transport pathways) were classified according to their importance, and the physical parameters related to the valleys were determined. The slope values in each point of the flanks and the Heim parameters H/L were calculated. In the light of morphological analysis the possible impact areas around the volcano and danger zones were proposed. The possible transport pathways of the products of expected volcanic events are unified in three main directions: Bitlis, Guroymak, Tatvan and Ahlat cities, the about 135 000 inhabitants of which could be threatened by future eruptions of this poorly known and unsurveyed volcano.  相似文献   

3.
Scaling and multifractal properties of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin were explored by using a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF‐DFA) technique. Long daily mean streamflow series from Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analyzed. Using shuffled streamflow series, the types of multifractality of streamflow series was also studied. The results indicate that the discharge series of the Yangtze River basin are non‐stationary. Different correlation properties were identified within streamflow series of the upper, the middle and the lower Yangtze River basin. The discharge series of the upper Yangtze River basin are characterized by short memory or anti‐persistence; while the streamflow series of the lower Yangtze River basin is characterized by long memory or persistence. h(q) vs q curves indicate multifractality of the hydrological processes of the Yangtze River basin. h(q) curves of shuffled streamflow series suggest that the multifractality of the streamflow series is mainly due to the correlation properties within the hydrological series. This study may be of practical and scientific importance in regional flood frequency analysis and water resource management in different parts of the Yangtze River basin. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
ABSTRACT

The index flood method of the regional L-moments approach is adapted to annual maximum rainfall (AMR) series of successively increasing durations from 5 minutes to 24 hours. In Turkey, there are 14 such AMRs having standard durations of 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, 180, 240, 300, 360, 480, 720, 1080 and 1440 min. The parameters of the probability distributions found suitable for these AMR series in a homogeneous region need to be adjusted so that their quantile functions will not cross each other over the entire range of probabilities. This adjustment is done so as to make (1) the derivative of the quantile function with respect to the Gumbel reduced variate of a longer-duration AMR be greater than or equal to that of the shorter-duration AMR, and (2) the quantile of a longer-duration AMR be greater than that of the shorter-duration AMR, both to be satisfied for any specific probability. Accordingly, the parameters of a probability distribution fitted to some AMR series must either increase or decrease or be constant with respect to increasing rainstorm duration; and the parameters of different distributions fitted to two sequential AMR series must be interrelated. The index flood method by the L-moments approach modified in such manner for successive-duration AMR series is applied to the Inland Anatolia region of Turkey using data recorded at 31 rain-gauging stations with recording lengths from 31 to 66 years.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione  相似文献   

5.
The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (Di) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km2 and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m3 s?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Zdist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1114-1124
Abstract

Droughts may be classified as meteorological, hydrological or agricultural. When meteorological drought appears in a region, agricultural and hydrological droughts follow. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was applied for meteorological drought analysis at nine stations located around the Lakes District, Turkey. Analyses were performed on 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month-long data sets. The SPI drought classifications were modelled by Adaptive Neural-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Fuzzy Logic, which has the advantage that, in contrast to most of the time series modelling techniques, it does not require the model structure to be known a priori. Comparison of the observed values and the modelling results shows a better agreement with SPI-12 and ANFIS models than with fuzzy logic models.  相似文献   

7.
The coastal water quality of Çanakkale Dardanelles (Turkey) was assessed based on bacteriological data and physical–chemical parameters. Total coliform (TC), fecal coliform (FC), and enterococci (ENT) bacteria along with physicochemical parameters were measured monthly up to a year at 12 different sampling sites located through both coastal lines of the strait. The fecal bacteria were abounded at several sampling sites such as B1, B3, G3, and G4 due to direct wastewater discharges and septic leakages or overloading. Storm water runoff and sediment resuspension were important pathways for the transport of coliform and ENT bacteria to the Dardanelles, as the region receives high precipitation and strong winds for most part of the year. The values of pH, temperature, and salinity were in typical ranges for the studied area. The microbiological and physicochemical data were correlated individually and in combination. The best fit correlations for bacterial data were attained between TC and FC or TC and ENT (R = 0.67 or ?0.68), while those for the combined data were obtained for TC with temperature (R = 0.94) and TC with salinity (R = ? 0.70).  相似文献   

8.
Simulation of soil moisture content requires effective soil hydraulic parameters that are valid at the modelling scale. This study investigates how these parameters can be estimated by inverse modelling using soil moisture measurements at 25 locations at three different depths (at the surface, at 30 and 60 cm depth) on an 80 by 20 m hillslope. The study presents two global sensitivity analyses to investigate the sensitivity in simulated soil moisture content of the different hydraulic parameters used in a one‐dimensional unsaturated zone model based on Richards' equation. For estimation of the effective parameters the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is applied. These estimated parameters are compared to their measured laboratory and in situ equivalents. Soil hydraulic functions were estimated in the laboratory on 100 cm3 undisturbed soil cores collected at 115 locations situated in two horizons in three profile pits along the hillslope. Furthermore, in situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity was estimated at 120 locations using single‐ring pressure infiltrometer measurements. The sensitivity analysis of 13 soil physical parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), saturated moisture content (θs), residual moisture content (θr), inverse of the air‐entry value (α), van Genuchten shape parameter (n), Averjanov shape parameter (N) for both horizons, and depth (d) from surface to B horizon) in a two‐layer single column model showed that the parameter N is the least sensitive parameter. Ks of both horizons, θs of the A horizon and d were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Distributions over all locations of the effective parameters and the distributions of the estimated soil physical parameters from the undisturbed soil samples and the single‐ring pressure infiltrometer estimates were found significantly different at a 5% level for all parameters except for α of the A horizon and Ks and θs of the B horizon. Different reasons are discussed to explain these large differences. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

Monitoring snow parameters (e.g. snow-cover area, snow water equivalent) is challenging work. Because of its natural physical properties, snow strongly affects the evolution of weather on a daily basis and climate on a longer time scale. In this paper, the snow recognition product generated from the MSG-SEVIRI images within the framework of the Hydrological Satellite Facility (HSAF) Project of EUMETSAT is presented. Validation of the snow recognition product H10 was done for the snow season (from 1 January to 31 March) of the water year 2009. The MOD10A1 and MOD10C2 snow products were also used in the validation studies. Ground truth of the products was obtained by using 1890 snow depth observations from 20 meteorological stations, which are mainly located in mountainous areas and are distributed across the eastern part of Turkey. The possibility of 37% cloud cover reduction was obtained by merging 15-min observations from MSG-SEVIRI as opposed to using only one daily observation from MODIS. The coarse spatial resolution of the H10 product gave higher commission errors compared to the MOD10A1 product. Snow depletion curves obtained from the HSAF snow recognition product were compared with those derived from the MODIS 8-day snow cover product. The preliminary results show that the HSAF snow recognition product, taking advantage of using high temporal frequency measurement with spectral information required for snow mapping, significantly improves the mapping of regional snow-cover extent over mountainous areas.

Citation Surer, S. and Akyurek, Z., 2012. Evaluating the utility of the EUMETSAT HSAF snow recognition product over mountainous areas of eastern Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1–11.  相似文献   

10.
Accuracy of spatio-temporal RARX model predictions of water table depths   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

Since droughts are natural phenomena, their occurrence cannot be predicted with certainty and thus it must be treated as a random variable. Once drought duration and magnitude have been found objectively, it is possible to plan for the transport of water in known quantities to drought-stricken areas either from alternative water resources or from water stored during wet periods. The summation of deficits over a particular period is referred to as the drought magnitude. Drought intensity is the ratio of drought magnitude to its duration. These drought properties at different truncation levels provide significant hydrological and hydrometeorological design quantities. In this study, the run analysis and z-score are used for determining drought properties of given hydrological series. In addition, kriging is used as a spatial drought analysis for mapping. This study is applied to precipitation records for Istanbul, Edirne, Tekirdag and Kirklareli in the Trakya region, Turkey and then the drought period, magnitude and standardized precipitation index (SPI) values are presented to depict the relationships between drought duration and magnitude.  相似文献   

12.
The study of seismic anomalies, related both to the temporal trend of aftershock sequences and to the temporal series of mainshocks, is important for an understanding of the physical processes relating to the existence and the characteristics of seismic precursors. The purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the temporal decay of an aftershock sequence. It is realized by means of several parameters. We focused our work on an analysis of the Papua New Guinea seismic sequence that occurred on November 16, 2000. The magnitude of the mainshock is M = 8.2. The observed temporal series of shocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic contribution and a stochastic contribution. If the decay can be modeled as a nonstationary Poisson process where the intensity function is equal to n(t) = K(t + c)−p + K 1, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t)Δt, with a standard deviation σ = √n(t)Δt. We observe that there are some variations in seismicity that can be considered as seismic anomalies before the occurrence of a large aftershock. The data, checked according to completeness criteria, come from the website of the USGS NEIC data bank (). The text was submitted by the authors in English.  相似文献   

13.
An interpretative method based on a nonlinearly mathematical optimization concept has been developed in this paper, in order to interpret self-potential anomalies (SP) due to horizontal cylinder, vertical cylinder, sphere and sheet-like structures. This interpretative method comprises three main steps. The first step is to formulate mathematically a nonlinearly constrained minimization problem (NCMP) to describe the geophysical problem related to the studied structure. The second one is to suggest an interior penalty function in order to convert the nonlinearly constrained minimization problem (NCMP) into a nonlinearly unconstrained minimization one (NUMP). The third step is to solve the converted nonlinearly unconstrained minimization problem (NUMP) by the well-known Hooke and Jeeves direct search algorithm in order to estimate the geophysical parameters of the studied structure, i.e., depth, polarization angle, electric dipole moment (magnitude of polarization) and geometric shape factor. The Hooke and Jeeves direct search algorithm is purposely chosen for being robust and its application to SP data allows a rapid convergence towards the optimal estimate of parameters. This interpretative method was first tested on theoretical synthetic models with different random noise, where a very close agreement was obtained between assumed and evaluated parameters.The validity of the proposed interpretative method is also tested on practical field examples taken from Turkey, India and Germany, where available SP data existed and was previously analyzed by different interpretative methods. The agreement between the results obtained by the developed method and those obtained by other published methods is good.Acknowledgment Authors would like to thank Dr. I. Othman Director General of the Atomic Energy Commission of Syria for his interest and continuous encouragement to achieve this work. Special thanks to the reviewers for their constructive suggestions aimed at enhancing the quality of this paper.  相似文献   

14.
We have measured group delays of the spectral components of high-frequency P-waves along two portions of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey and in a region of southern Germany. Assuming that the observed dispersion is associated with attenuation in the crust and that it can be described by a continuous relaxation model, we obtained Q and the high-frequency relaxation times for those waves for each of the three regions. Individual P-wave Q values exhibit large scatter, but mean values in the NAFZ increase from about 25 to 60 over the distance range 5–90 km. Mean Q values are somewhat higher in the eastern portion of the NAFZ than in the western portion for measurements made at distances between 10 and 30 km. P-wave Q values in Germany range between about 50 and 300 over the hypocentral distance range 20–130 km. In that region we separated the effects of Q for basement rock (2–10 km depth) from that of the overlying sediment (0–2 km depth) using a least-squares method. Q varies between 100 and 500 in the upper 8–10 km of basement, with mean values for most of the distance range being about 250. Q in the overlying sediments ranges between 6 and 10. Because of large scatter in the Q determinations we investigated possible effects that variations of the source-time function of the earthquakes and truncation of the waveform may have on Q determinations. All of our studies indicate that measurement errors are relatively large and suggest that useful application of the method requires many observations, and that the method will be most useful in regions where the number of oscillations following the initial P pulse is minimized. Even though there is large scatter in our Q determinations, the mean values that we obtained in Turkey are consistent with those found in earlier studies. Our conclusions that Q is significantly higher in the basement rock of Germany than in the basement rock of Turkey and that Q is lower in western Turkey than in eastern Turkey are also consistent with results of Q studies using Lg coda.  相似文献   

15.
Using a random effects model that takes into consideration the correlation of data recorded by a single seismic event, a database consisting of 195 recordings from 17 recent events is employed to develop empirical attenuation relationships for the geometric mean of horizontal peak ground acceleration and 5-percent damped spectral acceleration (Sa). The recordings employed are obtained from strong motion stations operating in Northwestern Turkey and resulted from events that include the Kocaeli (Mw=7.4) and the Düzce (Mw=7.1) earthquakes and their aftershocks as well as other events. By studying differences in standard errors, the random effects model is compared with a fixed effects model that does not account for distinctions between intra- and inter-event variability. Effects of local site conditions are included in the empirical relationships developed. The dependence on frequency of the various model parameters is also studied. Frequency-dependent attenuation coefficients for the proposed random effects models developed are summarized in tables to facilitate their use.  相似文献   

16.
This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time τ between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of unified scaling laws for τ for the case of seismic events. We demonstrate that these laws cannot exist simultaneously in a seismogenic area. Under very natural assumptions we show that if, after rescaling to ensure Eτ =1, the interevent time has a universal distribution F, then F must be exponential. In other words, Corral’s unified scaling law cannot exist in the whole range of time. In the framework of a general cluster model we discuss the parameterization of an empirical unified law and the physical meaning of the parameters involved. An erratum to this article is available at .  相似文献   

17.
A general watershed model represents the runoff phase of the hydrologic cycle by a series of moisture accounting equations. The Stanford Watershed Model uses fixed equations containing variable parameters which are calibrated for a watershed by trial-and-error matching of simulated to recorded flows. Opset was developed to estimate these parameters through a computerized least squares matching. The procedure reduces estimating scatter and provides parameter estimates which were correlated with physical characteristics of the watershed and with watershed changes with urbanization.  相似文献   

18.
Shear‐wall dominant multistorey reinforced concrete structures, constructed by using a special tunnel form technique are commonly built in countries facing a substantial seismic risk, such as Chile, Japan, Italy and Turkey. In spite of their high resistance to earthquake excitations, current seismic code provisions including the Uniform Building Code (International Conference of Building Officials, Whittier, CA, 1997) and the Turkish Seismic Code (Specification for Structures to be Built in Disaster Areas, Ankara, Turkey, 1998) present limited information for their design criteria. In this study, consistency of equations in those seismic codes related to their dynamic properties are investigated and it is observed that the given empirical equations for prediction of fundamental periods of this specific type of structures yield inaccurate results. For that reason, a total of 80 different building configurations were analysed by using three‐dimensional finite‐element modelling and a set of new empirical equations was proposed. The results of the analyses demonstrate that given formulas including new parameters provide accurate predictions for the broad range of different architectural configurations, roof heights and shear‐wall distributions, and may be used as an efficient tool for the implicit design of these structures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Some theoretical and practical limits to linear moment tensor inversion of surface waves are analyzed in detail, in particular when one or few stations are used for rapid determination of source parameters. The theory is briefly outlined and steps of preprocessing, especially corrections for source history and propagation, are discussed in order to guarantee the validity of the moment tensor inversion. The inverse problem is first studied from a theoretical point of view. Then the feasibility of the moment tensor inversion is tested from synthetic computations and the formalism is improved in order to obtain a better system conditioning. Finally, some cases of practical nonuniqueness of the solution are shown and possible restrictions to the applicability of the method are discussed. All steps are illustrated with the example of theM s =6.9 Erzincan (Turkey) earthquake of March, 13, 1992.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

During recent decades, intensive research has focused on techniques capable of generating rainfall time series at a fine time scale that are (fully or partially) consistent with a given series at a coarser time scale. Here we theoretically investigate the consequences on the ensemble statistical behaviour caused by the structure of a simple and widely-used approach of stochastic downscaling for rainfall time series, the discrete Multiplicative Random Cascade. We show that synthetic rainfall time series generated by these cascade models correspond to a stochastic process which is non-stationary, because its temporal autocorrelation structure depends on the position in time in an undesirable manner. Then, we propose and theoretically analyse an alternative downscaling approach based on the Hurst-Kolmogorov process, which is equally simple but is stationary. Finally, we provide Monte Carlo experiments which validate our theoretical results.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Lombardo, F., Volpi, E., and Koutsoyiannis, D., 2012. Rainfall downscaling in time: theoretical and empirical comparison between multifractal and Hurst-Kolmogorov discrete random cascades. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1052–1066.  相似文献   

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