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1.
Recent analysis of the long-term behavior of different geophysical data has demonstrated that trend parameters can change during a period of observation. Sophisticated general methods for an objective analysis of structural changes in linear trends have been developed during the last 10 years. Such methods are applied for an analysis of changes in trend parameters of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere wind observed over Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) from 1964 to 2007 and Collm (52°N, 15°E) from 1979 to 2008, respectively. We found that trend models with breakpoints are generally preferred against straight lines. At Obninsk, there are break-years in trends of the winter prevailing winds close to 1977, when a climatic regime shift was observed. The break-years in trends of the semidiurnal tides for both stations are close to years of possible changes in stratospheric ozone. Correlations of the Obninsk and Collm winds with atmospheric indices are also considered.  相似文献   

2.
基于热层电离层耦合数据同化的热层参量估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
本文采用高效集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)算法和背景场热层电离层理论模式NCAR-TIEGCM,开发了热层电离层数据同化系统.基于全球空地基GNSS电离层斜TEC观测、CHAMP和TIMED/GUVI热层参量观测构型设计了系列观测系统模拟实验,对热层参量进行估计.实验结果表明,(1)通过集合卡尔曼滤波算法同化电离层TEC观测能够较好地优化热层参量.(2)中性质量密度优化效果在整个同化阶段均有提升,提升百分比能达到40%.(3)积分氧氮比在同化阶段也能得到较好的优化,但在电子密度水平梯度变化剧烈区域效果较差.最后本文对中性质量密度进行了预报评估,结果表明,由于中性成分优化,在地磁平静条件下其预报时间尺度可长达24h.  相似文献   

3.
The problem of determining trends in thermospheric dynamics parameters (horizontal winds) based on analysis of trends in various combinations of ionospheric F 2-layer parameters is formulated. The previous attempts of the authors in this direction are briefly described. It is shown that all studied parameters lead to the same result: after the “boundary date” (approximately 1980) a systematic change in these parameters (a long-term trend) is observed, this fact manifesting changes in the dynamical regime of the thermosphere because of cooling and contraction of the entire middle and upper atmosphere. The results of a search for trends in the hmF2 height for the moment (T(ss) + 2 h) are described. These trends are found higher than the hmF2 trends obtained earlier by various authors analyzing the hmF2 behavior at fixed moments of local time.  相似文献   

4.
The results of numerical experiments on the modeling of thermospheric and ionospheric disturbances under conditions of sudden stratospheric warming are presented to study the possible mechanisms of such disturbances. Local disturbances caused by a planetary wave with zonal wave number s = 1 and internal gravity waves (IGWs) propagating from the disturbed region in the stratosphere are taken into account as sources of disturbances. It is shown that the inclusion of an additional source of thermospheric disturbances caused by mesospheric variations of atmospheric parameters with IGW periods over the region of sudden stratospheric warming leads to significant changes in the parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere, including a change in the global structure of the distributions of the gas components of the thermosphere and a shift in maximum concentrations of atomic oxygen to low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere; there is an increase in the mean values, the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of the ion concentration in the F region of the ionosphere. These features of changes in the parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere occurred with insignificant disturbances of tidal variations in the thermosphere.  相似文献   

5.
An Overview of Long-Term Trends in the Lower Ionosphere Below 120 km   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expectedalso to modify the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT region). However,the greenhouse cooling – instead of heating – at these heights is revealed by modelsand generally confirmed by observations. This should more or less affect variousionospheric parameters at these heights. The spatial and temporal structure oftemperature trends in the MLT region is quite complex and, therefore, such structureshould occur for trends in the lower ionosphere as well. In the lower part of theionosphere below about 90 km, the rocket measurements of electron density, theindirect phase reflection height measurements and the A3 radio wave absorptionmeasurements reveal trends corresponding to cooling and shrinking of the mesosphere,while riometric measurements of cosmic noise absorption provide inconclusive results.The radio wave absorption and rocket electron density measurements clearly display asubstantial dependence of trends on height. Ionosonde data show that there is amodel-expected trend in the maximum electron concentration of the E region ionosphere;foE is slightly increasing. On the other hand, the height of the normal E layer, h'E, isslightly decreasing. The nighttime LF radio wave reflection height measurements near95 km support an idea of increasing electron density. However, rather scarce rocketmeasurements display a negative trend in electron density at 90–120 km. The role ofthe solar cycle and other longer-term variability of natural origin in the determinationof observational trends must not be neglected. In spite of the general qualitativeagreement with model expectations, there is still some controversy between variousobservational trend results (hopefully, apparent rather than real), which needs to beclarified.  相似文献   

6.
We consider the ionospheric response at heights of 120–220 km to geomagnetic disturbances in October and November 2003, which caused a strongly pronounced decrease in the electron content in the noted height range. For this disturbance period, using a technique of the authors, midday variations of the relative content of atomic and molecular oxygen at a height of 120 km were estimated. This estimation was performed with the help of ionospheric measurements (by a digital ionosonde) conducted at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences from 2003 to 2006. Comparison of these values with similar values from the mass spectrometer-incoherent scatter (MSIS)-86 model showed that our estimates during disturbance days were two times less. This study continues research into the field of using ionospheric measurements to estimate the relative gas composition of the thermosphere at heights below the maximum of the F2 layer.  相似文献   

7.
The correlation between total ozone content lower thermosphere horizontal wind parameters, and standard indices of solar activity and geomagnetic activity has been studied. The satellite measurements of TOC for five observatories in Central Europe and the lower thermosphere wind measurements for Collm observatory (Germany) were used for 1996–2003. The quasi-periodic structure of these variations and the correlation between the corresponding periodograms were also studied. The quantitative evaluation of the statistically significant correlations and common periodicities were revealed.  相似文献   

8.
An annular eclipse occurred over Europe in the morning hours of 3 October 2005. The well-defined obscuration function of the solar radiation during the eclipse provided a good opportunity to study the ionospheric/thermospheric response to solar radiation changes. Since the peak electron density behavior of the ionospheric F2 layer follows the local balance of plasma production, loss and transport, the ionospheric plasma redistribution processes significantly affect the shape of the electron density profile. These processes are discussed here based on a comparison of vertical incidence sounding (VS) and vertical total electron content (TEC) data above-selected ionosonde stations in Europe. The equivalent slab thickness, derived with a time resolution of 10 min, provides relatively good information on the variation of the electron density profile during the eclipse. The computations reveal an increased width of the ionosphere around the maximum phase. As indicated by the available measurements over Spain, the photo production is significantly reduced during the event leading to a slower increase of the total ionization in comparison with the neighboring days. The supersonic motion of the Moon's cool shadow through the atmosphere may generate atmospheric gravity waves that propagate upward and are detectable as traveling ionospheric disturbances at ionospheric heights. High-frequency (HF) Doppler shift spectrograms were recorded during the eclipse showing a distinct disturbance along the eclipse path. Whereas the ionosonde measurements at the Ebro station/Spain in the vicinity of the eclipse path reveal the origin of the wave activity in the lower thermosphere below about 180 km altitude, the similar observations at Pruhonice/Czech Republic provide arguments to localize the origin of the abnormal waves in the middle atmosphere well below the ionospheric heights. Although ionosonde and HF Doppler measurements show enhanced wave activity, the TEC data analysis does not, which is an indication that the wave amplitudes are too small for detecting them via this interpolation method. The total ionization reduces up to about 30% during the event. A comparison with similar observations from the solar eclipse of 11 August 1999 revealed a quite different ionospheric behavior at different latitudes, a fact that needs further investigation.  相似文献   

9.
From indirect phase-height observations in the LF range at mid-latitudes, significant negative long-term trends of the ionospheric reflection height can be derived. The lowering of the reflection height at constant solar zenith angle can mainly be explained by a temperature decrease of the mesosphere due to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and a reduction of the atmospheric ozone content. Marked seasonal differences of the temperature trends could be found with a stronger cooling of the mesosphere in summer than in winter. A comparison of experimental trend results and model calculations with the three-dimensional global circulation model COMMA-IAP shows a reasonable agreement.  相似文献   

10.
We present a study of ionospheric and thermospheric response during a November 9–10, 2004 major geomagnetic storm event (DsT ～?300 nT). We utilize the North American sector longitude chain of incoherent scatter radars at Arecibo, Millstone Hill, and Sondrestrom, operating as part of a coordinated international mesosphere/lower thermosphere coupling study experiment. Total electron content (TEC) determinations from global positioning system (GPS) ground receivers, ground magnetometer traces from the Canadian CANOPUS array, Defense Meteorological Satellite Platform (DMSP) topside data, and global convection patterns from the SuperDARN radar network are analyzed to place the detailed radar data in proper mesoscale context. The plasmaspheric boundary layer (PBL) expanded greatly in the dusk sector during ring current intensification to span more than 25° of magnetic latitude, reaching as far south as 30° invariant latitude. Strong sub-auroral polarization stream velocities of more than 1 km/s were accompanied by large upwards thermal O+ fluxes to the overlying magnetosphere. The large PBL expansion subsequently exposed both Millstone Hill and Sondrestrom to the auroral convection pattern, which developed a complex multicell and reverse convection response under strongly northward IMF conditions during a period of global interplanetary electric field penetration. Large traveling atmospheric and ionospheric disturbances caused significant neutral wind and ion velocity surges in the mid-latitude and tropical ionosphere and thermosphere, with substorm activity launching equatorward neutral wind enhancements and subsequent mid-latitude dynamo responses at Millstone Hill. However, ionosphere and thermosphere observations at Arecibo point to significant disturbance propagation modification in the post-dusk sector PBL region.  相似文献   

11.
This study presents the ionospheric effects caused by the series of geomagnetic storms of September 9–14, 2005. The behavior of different ionospheric parameters over the Yakutsk, Irkutsk, Millstone Hill and Arecibo stations during the considered period have been numerically calculated, using a global self-consistent model of the thermosphere, ionosphere, and protonosphere (GSM TIP) developed at WD IZMI-RAN. The model calculations of disturbances of the ionospheric parameters during storms qualitatively agree with the experimental data at these midlatitude stations. We suggest that the causes of the quantitative differences between the model calculations and the observational data were the use of the 3-hour Kp index of geomagnetic activity and the dipole approximation of geomagnetic field in GSM TIP, with additional contributions from the effects of solar flares which are not considered in GSM TIP.  相似文献   

12.
The ratio of daytime and nighttime values of the foF2 critical frequency is analyzed on the basis of the data of 28 ionospheric stations in the Eastern Hemisphere. It is found that three types of time variations in this ratio are observed after 1980: an increase with time (a positive trend), a decrease with time (a negative trend), and the absence of pronounced changes (a zero trend). The sign of this trend is shown to be governed by the signs of the magnetic declination D and magnetic inclination I at the given ionospheric station. This fact makes it possible to assume that the above trend is caused by long-term variations in the zonal component V ny of the horizontal wind in the thermosphere, the latter component contributing into the vertical drift velocity W. The causes of the systematic changes in the thermospheric circulation regime after 1980 are still unknown; however, it is quite probable that they are related to anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

13.
The global pattern of long-term trends and changes in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere has been presented by Laštovička et al. [2006a. Global change in the upper atmosphere. Science 314 (5803), 1253–1254]. Trends in the mesospheric temperature, electron concentration in the lower ionosphere, electron concentration and height of its maximum in the E-region, electron concentration in the F1-region maximum, thermospheric neutral density and F-region ion temperature qualitatively agree with consequences of the enhanced greenhouse effect and form a consistent pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere. Three groups of parameters were identified as not-fitting this global pattern, the F2-region ionosphere, mesospheric water vapour, and the mesosphere/upper thermosphere dynamics. The paper reports progress in development of the global pattern of trends with emphasis to these three open problems. There are several other factors contributing to long-term trends, namely the stratospheric ozone depletion, mesospheric water vapour concentration changes, long-term changes of geomagnetic activity and of the Earth's magnetic field.  相似文献   

14.
The effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) cooling on trends of hmF2 and NmF2 are investigated using a coupled thermosphere and ionosphere general circulation model. Model simulations indicate that CO2 cooling not only causes contraction of the upper atmosphere and changes of neutral and ion composition but also changes dynamics and electrodynamics in the thermosphere/ionosphere. These changes determine the altitude dependence of ionospheric trends and complex latitudinal, longitudinal, diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle variations of trends of hmF2 and NmF2. Under the CO2 cooling effect, trends of NmF2 are negative with magnitude from 0% to −40% for doubled CO2, depending on location, local time, season, and solar activity. The corresponding trends of hmF2 are mostly negative with a magnitude from 0 to −40 km, but can be positive with a magnitude from 0 to 10 km at night, with maximum positive trends occurring after midnight under solar minimum conditions.  相似文献   

15.
Longitudinal variation in E- and F-region ionospheric trends   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A novel technique is used to examine northern hemisphere midlatitude longitudinal variations in ionospheric long-term trends. Differences in hour-by-hour monthly median ionospheric parameters between equilatitudinal observatory pairs are analysed for long-term trends, thus eliminating at source the large solar cycle and geomagnetic variability that normally hinders ionospheric trend calculations. The results confirm the finding of Bremer [1998. Trends in the ionsopheric E- and F-regions over Europe. Annales Geophysicae 16, 698–996] that there are longitudinal variations in the F-region altitude trend across Europe, but suggest the influence of a stationary wave-like feature between 3°W and 104°E. Possible causes such as scaling errors, insufficient account of changes in ionisation underlying the F-region, varying gravity wave fluxes, and secular change in the geomagnetic field are ruled out. The data suggest that the longitudinal variation may reflect long-term changes in a large-scale stationary feature induced via non-migrating tides induced by latent heat release in the troposphere.Significant differences in the long-term trend of E-region peak plasma frequency between observatories were also found. These E-region differential trends varied with solar zenith angle reaching over 0.3 MHz per decade between Juliusruh and Moscow at midday in summer.  相似文献   

16.
Planetary waves in coupling the lower and upper atmosphere   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  
The purpose of the paper is to answer the question if planetary waves (PW) are capable of propagating into the thermosphere. First the simplest vertical structure equation of the classic tidal theory accounting for a realistic vertical temperature profile is considered. Analysis and simulation show that the well-known normal atmospheric modes (NM), which are trapped in the lower and middle atmosphere, exhibit a wave-like vertical structure with a large vertical wavelength in the thermosphere. Moreover, the reflection of these modes from the vertical temperature gradient in the lower thermosphere causes appearance of the wave-energy upward flux in the middle atmosphere, and in a linearized formulation this flux is constant above the source region. To investigate a possibility of the NM forcing by stratospheric vacillations and to consider the propagation of different PW up to the heights of the upper thermosphere, a set of runs with a mechanistic Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model has been performed. The results of the simulation show that quasi-stationary and longer-period PW are not able to penetrate into the thermosphere. The shorter-period NM and ultra-fast Kelvin wave propagate up to the heights of the lower thermosphere. However, above about 150 km they are strongly suppressed by dissipative processes. The role of the secondary waves (nonmigrating tides) arising from nonlinear interaction between the primary migrating tides and quasi-stationary PW is discussed. We conclude that PW are not capable of propagating directly up to the heights of the ionospheric F2 region. It is suggested that other physical processes (for instance, the electrostatic field perturbations) have to be taken into account to explain the observed PW-like structures in ionospheric parameters.  相似文献   

17.
Effects on the Ionosphere Due to Phenomena Occurring Below it   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
The terrestrial thermosphere and ionosphere form the most variable part of theEarth's atmosphere. Because our society depends on technological systems thatcan be affected by thermospheric and ionospheric phenomena, understanding,monitoring and ultimately forecasting the changes of the thermosphere–ionosphere system are of crucial importance to communications, navigation and the exploration of near-Earth space. The reason for the extreme variability of the thermosphere–ionosphere system isits rapid response to external forcing from various sources, i.e., thesolar ionizing flux, energetic charged particles and electric fields imposed via the interaction between the solar wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere, as well as coupling from below (meteorological influences) by the upward propagating, broad spectrum,internal atmospheric waves (planetary waves, tides, gravity waves) generated in thestratosphere and troposphere. Thunderstorms, typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes andeven seismological events may also have observable consequences in the ionosphere.The release of trace gases due to human activity have the potential to cause changes inthe lower and the upper atmosphere.A brief overview is presented concerning the discoveries and experimentalresults that have confirmed that the ionosphere is subject to meteorologicalcontrol (especially for geomagnetic quiet conditions and for middle latitudes).D-region aeronomy, the winter anomaly of radiowave absorption, wave-liketravelling ionospheric disturbances, the non-zonality and regional peculiaritiesof lower thermospheric winds, sporadic-E occurrence and structure, spread-Fevents, the variability of ionospheric electron density profiles and Total ElectronContent, the variability of foF2, etc., should all be considered in connection withtropospheric and stratospheric processes. Ionospheric weather, as a part of spaceweather, (i.e., hour-to-hour and day-to-day variability of the ionospheric parameters)awaits explanation and prediction within the framework of the climatological, seasonal,and solar-cycle variations.  相似文献   

18.
A new parameterization of infrared radiative transfer in the 15-m CO2 band has been incorporated into the Spectral mesosphere/lower thermosphere model (SMLTM). The parameterization is applicable to calculations of heating rates above approximately 15 km for arbitrary vertical profiles of the CO2 concentration corresponding to the surface mixing ratio in the range 150–720 ppm. The sensitivity of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to doubling of CO2 has been studied. The thermal response in the MLT is mostly negative (cooling) and much stronger than in the lower atmosphere. An average cooling at the stratopause is about 14 K. It gradually decreases to approximately 8 K in the upper mesosphere and again increases to about 40–50 K in the thermosphere. The cooling and associated thermal shrinking result in a substantial density reduction in the MLT that reaches 40–45% in the thermosphere. Various radiative, chemical, and dynamical feedbacks potentially important for the thermal response in the MLT are discussed. It is noted that the results of simulations are strikingly similar to observations of long-term trends in the MLT. This suggests that during the last 3–4 decades the thermal structure in the real upper atmosphere has undergone substantial changes driven by forcing comparable with that due to doubling of CO2.  相似文献   

19.
Numerical modeling of changes in the zonal circulation and amplitudes of stationary planetary waves are performed with an accounting for the impact of solar activity variations on the thermosphere. A thermospheric version of the Middle/Upper Atmosphere Model (MUAM) is used to calculate the circulation in the middle and upper atmosphere at altitudes up to 300 km from the Earth’s surface. Different values of the solar radio emission flux in the thermosphere are specified at a wavelength of 10.7 cm to take into account the solar activity variations. The ionospheric conductivities and their variations in latitude, longitude, and time are taken into account. The calculations are done for the January–February period and the conditions of low, medium, and high solar activity. It was shown that, during high-activity periods, the zonal wind velocities increases at altitudes exceeding 150 km and decreases in the lower layers. The amplitudes of planetary waves at high solar activity with respect to the altitude above 120 km or below 100 km, respectively, are smaller or larger than those at low activity. These differences correspond to the calculated changes in the refractive index of the atmosphere for stationary planetary waves and the Eliassen–Palm flux. Changes in the conditions for the propagation and reflection of stationary planetary waves in the thermosphere may influence the variations in their amplitudes and the atmospheric circulation, including the lower altitudes of the middle atmosphere.  相似文献   

20.
Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.  相似文献   

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