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1.
Oxygen isotope stage 3 (OIS 3), encompassing the long middle section of the last glacial interval, has been the focus of an intensive high-resolution climate modeling effort for Europe. These model simulations produce substantially colder climates than modern simulations; however, the temperatures appear warmer than many proxy indicators suggest. In order to evaluate the importance of the model boundary conditions, comparable simulations are completed for the last glacial maximum (LGM). The LGM simulation produces a much colder European continent than OIS 3, despite similarities in the specification of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). Ice-sheet dimension is evidently a key factor in explaining the difference in European climates over the past 40,000 yr. However, underestimates in specified OIS 3 ice sheets cannot be invoked to explain the discrepancies, since data strongly indicate small ice-sheet extents at that time; this leaves errors in specified OIS 3 SSTs as the most likely cause.  相似文献   

2.
Oxygen isotope stage 3 (OIS3), an interstade between approximately 60,000 and 25,000 yr B.P., presents an ideal opportunity to compare high-resolution climate simulations with the geologic record. To facilitate this comparison, the results of a mesoscale climate model (RegCM2) embedded in the GENESIS GCM are utilized to drive a vegetation model (BIOME 3.5). The BIOME output is then compared with OIS3 compilations derived from pollen. The simulated biomes agree well with the pollen-based biomes in southern Europe; however, disagreements occur in the northern part of the domain. The most striking mismatch involves the distribution of tundra. The models fail to have tundra extend to its observed position as far south as 50°N in central Europe during OIS3. The model also fails to have permafrost extend southward to its observed position between 50°N and 55°N in western Europe during OIS3. A variety of sensitivity experiments are performed to investigate these mismatches. These experiments demonstrate the importance of annual and summer temperatures and the length of the winter season in creating improved matches between the model results and the inferred distributions of vegetation and permafrost in northern Europe.  相似文献   

3.
Magnetic susceptibility (MS) of surface sediment varies systematically across the Loess Plateau in central China, decreasing exponentially from >200×10−8 m3/kg at the northern margin of the Qinling Shan to ≤30×10−8 m3/kg near the southern margin of the Mu Us Desert. MS correlates highly with loess median grain size (r2=0.79), which decreases south-southeastward across the plateau. It also correlates with mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) (r2=0.58 and 0.60, respectively), and with their product MAT×MAP (r2=0.83), which is considered a measure of potential pedogenic activity. Because regional isopleths depicting grain size and the primary meteorological parameters are nearly parallel, it is difficult to determine their relative influence on MS. A simple MS model, based on the observed spatial variation in loess thickness, permits quantitative assessment of the effect of the dust accumulation rate on the MS signal of surface sediment and isolates the likely role of climate in the production of magnetic minerals. The model suggests that 84% of the loess MS variance is dictated by the diluting effect of dust and 10–11% is associated with meteorological factors, primarily precipitation. The observed and modeled relationships support hypotheses that attribute variations in MS in the loess-paleosol succession to varying rates of dust deposition and in situ production of magnetic minerals in the accretionary soils, both of which are controlled by monsoon climate.  相似文献   

4.
The timing and magnitude of sea-surface temperature (SST) changes in the tropical southern South China Sea (SCS) during the last 16,500 years have been reconstructed on a high-resolution, 14C-dated sediment core using three different foraminiferal transfer functions (SIMMAX28, RAM, FP-12E) and geochemical (Uk′37) SST estimates. In agreement with CLIMAP reconstructions, both the FP-12E and the Uk′37 SST estimates show an average late glacial–interglacial SST difference of 2.0°C, whereas the RAM and SIMMAX28 foraminiferal transfer functions show only a minor (0.6°C) or no consistent late glacial–interglacial SST change, respectively. Both the Uk′37 and the FP-12E SST estimates, as well as the planktonic foraminiferal δ18O values, indicate an abrupt warming (ca. 1°C in <200 yr) at the end of the last glaciation, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the Bølling transition as recorded in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, whereas the RAM-derived deglacial SST increase appears to lag during this event by ca. 500 yr. The similarity in abruptness and timing of the warming associated with the Bølling transition in Greenland and the southern SCS suggest a true synchrony of the Northern Hemisphere warming at the end of the last glaciation. In contrast to the foraminiferal transfer function estimates that do not indicate any consistent cooling associated with the Younger Dryas (YD) climate event in the tropical SCS, the Uk′37 SST estimates show a cooling of ca. 0.2–0.6°C compared to the Bølling–Allerød period. These Uk′37 SST estimates from the southern SCS argue in favor of a Northern Hemisphere-wide, synchronous cooling during the YD period.  相似文献   

5.
More than 30 fossil coleopteran (beetle) assemblages have been recorded from oxygen isotope stage 3 in northern Europe, comprising several hundred identified species. Using the mutual climatic range method for quantifying palaeotemperatures, these assemblages show that the climates of the times can be divided into two distinct interstadial types. One, a short phase of temperate/oceanic climate occurred between 43,000 and 42,000 14C yr B.P. when conditions were not much different from those of the present day. In spite of the temperate climate, trees did not colonize northwestern Europe at this time. Two, both before and after this temperate interlude there were phases of cold/continental climate during which summers were too cold for trees to grow and winters were of Siberian intensity. It is possible that periods of even colder conditions intervened from time to time between the interstadial but, because of the intensity of the cold, biological systems were so inhibited that no fossil evidence for them can be found in northern Europe. Evidence for them must be sought in the fossil records from the warmer parts of southern Europe or in the physical evidence in the Greenland ice cores.  相似文献   

6.
The benches and risers at Mormon Point, Death Valley, USA, have long been interpreted as strandlines cut by still-stands of pluvial lakes correlative with oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 5e/6 (120,000–186,000 yr B.P.) and OIS-2 (10,000–35,000 yr B.P.). This study presents geologic mapping and geomorphic analyses (Gilbert's criteria, longitudinal profiles), which indicate that only the highest bench at Mormon Point (90 m above mean sea level (msl)) is a lake strandline. The other prominent benches on the north-descending slope immediately below this strandline are interpreted as fault scarps offsetting a lacustrine abrasion platform. The faults offsetting the abrasion platform most likely join downward into and slip sympathetically with the Mormon Point turtleback fault, implying late Quaternary slip on this low-angle normal fault. Our geomorphic reinterpretation implies that the OIS-5e/6 lake receded rapidly enough not to cut strandlines and was 90 m deep. Consistent with independent core studies of the salt pan, no evidence of OIS-2 lake strandlines was found at Mormon Point, which indicates that the maximum elevation of the OIS-2 lake surface was −30 m msl. Thus, as measured by pluvial lake depth, the OIS-2 effective precipitation was significantly less than during OIS-5e/6, a finding that is more consistent with other studies in the region. The changed geomorphic context indicates that previous surface exposure dates on fault scarps and benches at Mormon Point are uninterpretable with respect to lake history.  相似文献   

7.
A hydrologic model of the Shingobee Watershed in north-central Minnesota was developed to reconstruct mid-Holocene paleo-lake levels for Williams Lake, a surface-water body located in the southern portion of the watershed. Hydrologic parameters for the model were first estimated in a calibration exercise using a 9-yr historical record (1990–1998) of climatic and hydrologic stresses. The model reproduced observed temporal and spatial trends in surface/groundwater levels across the watershed. Mid-Holocene aquifer and lake levels were then reconstructed using two paleoclimatic data sets: CCM1 atmospheric general circulation model output and pollen-transfer functions using sediment core data from Williams Lake.Calculated paleo-lake levels based on pollen-derived paleoclimatic reconstructions indicated a 3.5-m drop in simulated lake levels and were in good agreement with the position of mid-Holocene beach sands observed in a Williams Lake sediment core transect. However, calculated paleolake levels based on CCM1 climate forcing produced only a 0.05-m drop in lake levels. We found that decreases in winter precipitation rather than temperature increases had the largest effect on simulated mid-Holocene lake levels. The study illustrates how watershed models can be used to critically evaluate paleoclimatic reconstructions by integrating geologic, climatic, limnologic, and hydrogeologic data sets.  相似文献   

8.
Fluvial and eolian successions of oxygen isotope stage 3 are compared with global (GCM) and regional climate (RCM) modeling experiments of the stage 3 and last glacial maximum climate in Europe. Differences in precipitation between stage-3 stades and interstades were minor, which is confirmed by the fluvial successions. The fluvial response to climate variation is non-uniform, and in southern Europe more pronounced than in northern Europe. The model simulations indicate a strong western winter circulation over Europe during stage 3, which is supported by the eolian deposits data. Wind speeds in the last glacial maximum simulation appear modest compared with those of stage 3, which contrasts with the abundance of eolian deposits. This suggests that during glacial climates the stabilizing effect of vegetation determines eolian sedimentation rates, rather than wind speed. Stage 3 can be divided into an older part (>45,000 cal yr B.P.) with a relatively stable landscape and moist climate and a younger part with more frequent climate change and decreasing landscape stability.  相似文献   

9.
Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean.  相似文献   

10.
The Magnitude and Proximate Cause of Ice-Sheet Growth Since 35,000 yr B.P.   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The magnitude of late Wisconsinan (post-35,000 yr B.P.) ice-sheet growth in the Northern Hemisphere is not well known. Ice volume at 35,000 yr B.P. may have been as little as 20% or as much as 70% of the volume present at the last glacial maximum (LGM). A conservative evaluation of glacial–geologic, sea level, and benthic δ18O data indicates that ice volume at 35,000 yr B.P. was approximately 50% of that extant at the LGM (20,000 yr B.P.); that is, it doubled in about 15,000 yr. On the basis of literature for the North Atlantic and a sea-surface temperature (SST) data compilation, it appears that this rapid growth may have been forced by low-to-mid-latitude SST warming in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with attendant increased moisture transport to high latitudes. The SST ice-sheet growth notion also explains the apparent synchroneity of late Wisconsinan mountain glaciation in both hemispheres.  相似文献   

11.
The Vyazivok loess sequence from the Dnieper Plain, Ukraine, documents regional environmental changes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Pedological and palynological analyses and low-field magnetic susceptibility document changes from dense temperate forest during the last interglacial maximum to open, harsh, loess–steppe during the latest Pleistocene. The Vyazivok section overlies hillwash derived from a lower Pleistocene terrace and consists of two stratified soil complexes (Kaydaky and Pryluky; marine isotope stage [MIS] 5 equivalent) separated by a layer of eolian dust (Tyasmyn silt). The lower soils in both complexes formed within forest. These soils are overlain by the Uday (MIS4) and Bug (MIS2) loess units, which are separated by boreal soils of the Vytachiv (MIS3) complex. The coldest conditions within the record occurred in the youngest loess. Holocene soils cap the Bug loess. The Vyazivok section shows remarkable similarities with other classical loess sequences in western Europe, the Czech Republic, and Austria. The Kaydaky, Pryluky, and Vytachiv deposits, correlate with the PKIII, PKII, and PKI soil complexes, respectively, of the Czech Republic. The Tyasmyn and Prylyky silt layers correspond to marker horizons from central Europe.  相似文献   

12.
Paleoecological records from two Holocene peat bogs in northern Germany are linked by two microscopic volcanic ash layers, correlated by petrology and geochemistry to explosive volcanism on Iceland. The younger “Microlite tephra” cannot be correlated to any known eruption, while the older tephra layer is identified as a deposit of the Hekla 3 eruption. The tephra layers are dated by an age–depth regression of accelerator mass spectrometry 14C ages that have been calibrated and combined in probability distributions. This procedure gives an age of 730–664 cal yr B.C. for the “Microlite tephra” event and 1087–1006 cal yr B.C. for the Hekla 3 event. Accordingly, the tephra layers were deposited during the late Bronze Age. At this time, human settlement slowly increased pressure on the environment, as indicated by changes in woodland pollen composition at the two bogs. The tephra-marker horizons further show that the palynologically defined transition from the Subboreal to the Subatlantic Period is synchronous in the investigated area. However, the macroscopic visible marker in peat, the change from fibrous to sapric peat, the “Schwarztorf-Weißtorf-Kontakt,” is asynchronous. Bog vegetation did not immediately react in unison to a climatic change at this pollen zone boundary; instead, the timing of vegetation change depended on the location within the bog.  相似文献   

13.
Five Neotoma spp. (packrat) middens are analyzed from Sand Canyon Alcove, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado. Plant remains in middens dated at approximately 9870, 9050, 8460, 3000, and 0 14C yr B.P. are used to estimate Holocene seasonal temperature and precipitation values based on modern plant tolerances published by Thompson et al. (1999a, 1999b). Early Holocene vegetation at the alcove shows a transition from a cool/mesic to a warmer, more xeric community between 9050 and 8460 14C yr B.P. Picea pungens, Pinus flexilis, and Juniperus communis exhibit an average minimum elevational displacement of 215 m. Picea pungens and Pinus flexilis are no longer found in the monument.Estimates based on modern plant parameters (Thompson et al., 1999a) suggest that average temperatures at 9870 14C yr B.P. may have been at least 1° to 3°C colder in January and no greater than 3° to 10°C colder in July than modern at this site. Precipitation during this time may have been at least 2 times modern in January and 2 to 3 times modern in July. Discrepancies in estimated temperature and precipitation tolerances between last occurrence and first occurrence taxa in the midden record suggest that midden assemblages may include persisting relict vegetation.  相似文献   

14.
Loess on the high mountains of northwestern China is largely controlled by the topographic features, distributed mainly on the northern slopes of the Tianshan and Kunlun Mountains as well as in the Ili Valley (between the northern and central Tianshan ranges). Loess distributed in different regions has different ages, with the oldest (early Pleistocene) loess occurring in the Ili Valley. Geochemical, mineralogical and granulometric analyses demonstrate that the loess in the three different regions has different provenance. The loess on the northern Tianshan and Kunlun Mountains is mainly derived from the Junggar and Taklimakan Deserts, respectively, whereas the loess in the Ili Valley is derived mainly from the Sary–Ishikotrau Desert located in the Republic of Kazakhstan. However, these deserts serve mostly as holding areas for the silts rather than original source regions. The production of the silt-sized particles is mainly associated with glacial abrasion and tectonic-induced rock denudation. Thus, the loess in the studied regions can be described as “mountainous” loess rather than simply “glacial” loess or “desert” loess. It is unlikely that the mechanisms of loess formation are the same in different regions, given their dependence on specific geomorphological conditions and associated processes.  相似文献   

15.
Analyses of sediment cores from two lakes in the central Brooks Range provide temperature and moisture balance information for the past 8500 cal yr at century-scale resolution. Two methods of oxygen isotope analysis are used to reconstruct past changes in the effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) and temperature. Effective moisture is inferred from oxygen isotope ratios in sediment cellulose from Meli Lake (area 0.13 km2, depth 19.4 m). The lake has a low watershed-to-lake-area ratio (7) and significant evaporation relative to input. Summer temperature shifts are based on oxygen isotope analyses of endogenic calcite from Tangled Up Lake (area 0.25 km2, depth 3.5 m). This basin has a larger watershed-to-lake-area ratio (91) and less evaporation relative to input. Sediment oxygen isotope analyses from the two sites indicate generally more arid conditions than present prior to 6000 cal yr B.P. Subsequently, the region became increasingly wet. Temperature variability is recorded minimally at centennial scale resolution with values that are generally cool for the past 6700 cal yr. The timing and direction of climate variability indicated by the oxygen isotope time series from Meli and Tangled Up lakes are consistent with previously established late Holocene glacier advances at 5000 cal yr B.P. in the central Brooks Range, and high lake-levels at Birch Lake since 5500 cal yr B.P. This unique use of oxygen isotopes reveals both moisture balance and temperature histories at previously undetected high-resolution temporal scales for northern Alaska during the middle to late Holocene.  相似文献   

16.
应用统计降尺度方法预估江淮流域未来降水   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
统计降尺度方法广泛应用于弥补大气环流模式(GCM)模拟区域气候变化能力较弱的不足。利用1960~2009年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和江淮流域52个站点降水观测资料,通过敏感性分析,针对4个季节分别选择10个大尺度预测因子,采用主成分分析(PCA)和支持向量机(SVM)相结合的方法,建立了江淮流域降水统计降尺度模型。检验结果表明,该模型获取的江淮流域降水的偏差显著减小,能够描述降水在月、年尺度的变化,适用于HadCM3输出的大尺度气候场,具有预测未来降水变化的能力。将统计降尺度模型应用于HadCM3在A2情景下输出的2020~2099年大尺度预测因子,分3个时段:2020~2039年,2050~2069年和2080~2099年,从年和季节两个时间尺度分析江淮流域未来降水变化。结果表明,相对1960~1999年,未来3个时段的降水有小幅增加,其中2080~2099年增幅最大,为3.6 mm;在未来3个时段的不同季节,降水变化呈现出不同特征。  相似文献   

17.
Core A9-EB2 from the eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula, consists of pelagic (diatom ooze-clay couplets and bioturbated diatom ooze) and hemipelagic (bioturbated mud) sediments interbedded with turbidites (homogeneous mud and silt–clay couplets). The cyclic and laminated nature of these pelagic sediments represents alternation between the deposition of diatom-rich biogenic sediments and of terrigenous sediments. Sediment properties and geochemical data explain the contrasting lamination, with light layers being finer-grained and relatively rich in total organic carbon and biogenic silica content. Also, the high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) variations highlight distinct features: high MS values coincide with clastic-rich sections and low MS values correspond to biogenic sections. The chronology developed for core A9-EB2 accounts for anomalous ages associated with turbidites and shows a linear sedimentation rate of approximately 87 cm/103 yr, which is supported by an accumulation rate of 80 cm/103 yr calculated from 210Pb activity. The late Holocene records clearly identify Neoglacial events of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear in the MS record, suggesting intrinsically unstable climatic conditions during the late Holocene in the Bransfield Basin of Antarctic Peninsula.  相似文献   

18.
Cyclostratigraphic analysis of the Pliocene Zújar section (Guadix-Baza Basin, southeastern Spain) has enabled the recognition of a number of climatically forced cycles reflecting alternating dry and wet periods. Peaks of aridity are recorded at ca. 3.95, 3.55, 3.2, 2.8, and 1.8 myr B.P. The first dry period at about 4.0 myr B.P. corresponds to the early Ruscinian Mammal age, while the second arid interval at about 3.6 myr B.P. corresponds to the establishment of the Mediterranean double seasonality. The significant mammal turnover between the late Ruscinian and early Villanyian stages is placed between chron 2An.2n and the very base of chron 2An.1n, coincident with the dry phase recognized at about 3.2 myr B.P. The fourth aridity maximum at 2.8 myr B.P. roughly coincides with the Equus event in western Europe and is probably related to the beginning of the glacial–interglacial dynamics in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the last dry peak at about 1.8 myr B.P. is probably related to the set of mammalian events characterizing the transition from the late Pliocene faunas to those of the early Pleistocene.  相似文献   

19.
We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.  相似文献   

20.
High-resolution charcoal and pollen analyses were used to reconstruct a 4600-yr-long history of fire and vegetation near Taylor Lake in the wettest forests of coastal Oregon. Today, fires in these forests are rare because the season of ignition does not coincide with months of dry fuels. From ca. 4600 to 2700 cal yr B.P. fire episodes occurred at intervals of 140±30 yr while forest vegetation was dominated by disturbance-adapted taxa such as Alnus rubra. From ca. 2700 cal yr B.P. to the present, fire episodes have become less common, occurring at intervals of 240±30 yr, and fire-sensitive forest taxa, such as Tsuga heterophylla and Picea sitchensis, have become more prominent. Fire occurrence during the mid-Holocene was similar to that of the more xeric forests in the eastern Coast Range and suggests that summer drought was widespread. After ca. 2700 cal yr B.P., a decrease in fire episode frequency suggests that cooler conditions and possibly increased summer fog allowed the establishment of present-day Picea sitchensis forests within the watershed. These results provide evidence that fire has been an important disturbance agent in the Coast Range of Oregon, and variations in fire frequency and climate have led to the establishment of present-day forests.  相似文献   

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