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1.
The Sahel is prone to climate stressors such as droughts, winds and floods. This study employs a systematic review approach to track the frequency with which these stressors are reported in the scientific peer reviewed literature, examining publishing trends to identify which stressors are most reported, documenting the spatial distribution of these stressors from a country and regional perspective, and assessing the role played by climatic and non-climatic drivers in causing the stressors. A total of (n = 388) reports of stressors were documented in (n = 164) peer reviewed articles. From a country perspective, Southern Niger records the highest number of reports on all three stressors (15.97%), followed by Ethiopia (11.85%) and Senegal (10.56%). Regionally, West African Sahel recorded the highest number of reports on all stressors (49.97%) followed by East African Sahel (29.89%) and Central African Sahel (12.11%) respectively. Droughts are observed to be the most frequently reported stressor (n = 219), followed by floods (n = 123) and winds (n = 46). The decade 1975–1985 recorded the highest reports of stressors (n = 207), while the decade 1997–2007 recorded (n = 80) and the decade 1986–1996 recorded (n = 52). While climatic drivers are dominant (52%), there is however an increasing attribution of the drivers of the stressors to non-climatic drivers (47%). The main weakness of this study is that it uses peer reviewed papers dwelling on climate stressors as a proxy for climate stressors in the Sahel and a lot more studies could be hiding in non-peer reviewed studies, underscoring that this work provides a general and baseline overview of the climate stressors in the region.  相似文献   

2.
Steady-state radial flow in three-dimensional heterogeneous media is investigated using a geostatistical approach. The goal of the study is to develop a model of the relationship between corescale hydraulic conductivities measured at the wellbore and the conductivity of the surrounding drainage region as measured by a larger scale flow experiment such as a pump test. Conductivity at the point or core-scale is modeled as a stationary and multivariate lognormal spatial random function. Conductivity of the drainage region is obtained by a weighted nonlinear spatial average over the point-scale values within. This empirical spatial averaging process is shown to yield excellent approximations of true effective drainage region conductivities calculated using a numerical flow model. The geostatistical model for point-scale conductivity and the spatial averaging process are used to determine the first and second order ensemble moments of drainage region conductivity. In particular, an expression is derived for the conditional expectation of drainage region conductivity given point-scale values measured at the wellbore. The results are illustrated in a case study of a well from a sandstone oil reservoir where both core and transient-test conductivity data from the same interval are available for comparison.  相似文献   

3.
中更新世气候转型事件(MPT)是全球性冷气候事件,在柴达木盆地也有记录,但关于该事件形成时的古温度数据较少。石盐原生流体包裹体形成于浅水环境,其均一温度可直接反映晶体形成时的卤水温度,是恢复古温度常用的指标之一。本文选择柴达木盆地西部钻孔SG-1中1.22~0.88 Ma期间的石盐晶体进行流体包裹体均一温度测试,共获得390个石盐流体包裹体数据。其均一温度最高为50 ℃,最低为6.8 ℃,90%以上温差值在10 ℃以内,且石盐流体包裹体大小与温度没有明显线性相关关系,这说明SG-1钻孔石盐流体包裹体被捕获后没有受到后期热液的改造。均一温度数据反映了石盐沉积时的古水温特征。石盐晶体主要在暖季析出,原生流体包裹体恢复的古水温可能是暖季节的温度。均一温度的最高值可能受到热液和气候的共同作用。MPT时期,石盐流体包裹体均一温度(中位值Th,med)接近于现代盆地7月份大气温度的平均值,高于盆地的全年温度及MPT时期的全球气温,与MPT时期地中海的海水表面温度相当,均一温度的平均值(Th,avg)高于以上温度。SG-1钻孔记录的柴达木盆地MPT事件最冷期出现在约1.165~1.0 Ma。  相似文献   

4.
淮河流域作为我国重要的粮食产地,其水资源利用情况具有很高的研究价值。利用MODIS蒸散发数据产品（MOD16/ET）、降水和气温时序数据以及土地利用数据,探讨了淮河流域2000—2014年蒸散量时空变化特征及其对气候变化、土地利用的响应。结果表明:淮河流域蒸散量在空间上表现为南高北低,蒸散量多年均值为589.1 mm,夏季最高,冬季最低。整体而言,淮河流域15年间蒸散量具有先增加后减少的趋势;趋势分析结果显示,31.4%的地区蒸散量呈显著或极显著减少趋势,5.4%的地区蒸散量呈显著或极显著增加趋势,63.2%的地区蒸散量无显著变化。从蒸散量的气候因子分区看,52.0%的区域表现为非气候因子驱动型,44.1%的地区为降水驱动型,双因子驱动型和气温驱动型范围很小,面积占比分别为2.4%、1.5%,表明人类活动对蒸散发的影响巨大。四种植被覆盖土地利用蒸散量均值表现为林地>水田>旱地>草地。根据2000—2014年土地利用转变引起蒸散量变化的统计结果,草地转变为水田时蒸散量明显增加,旱地转变为草地、林地转变为旱地后蒸散量明显减少。  相似文献   

5.
On the basis of local measurements of hydraulic conductivity,geostatistical methods have been found to be useful in heterogeneity characterization of a hydraulic conductivity field on a regional scale. However,the methods are not suited to directly integrate dynamic production data,such as,hydraulic head and solute concentration,into the study of conductivity distribution. These data,which record the flow and transport processes in the medium,are closely related to the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity. In this study,a three-dimensional gradient-based inverse method-the sequential self-calibration (SSC) method-is developed to calibrate a hydraulic conductivity field,initially generated by a geostatistical simulation method,conditioned on tracer test results. The SSC method can honor both local hydraulic conductivity measurements and tracer test data. The mismatch between the simulated hydraulic conductivity field and the reference true one,measured by its mean square error (MSE),is reduced through the SSC conditional study. In comparison with the unconditional results,the SSC conditional study creates the mean breakthrough curve much closer to the reference true curve,and significantly reduces the prediction uncertainty of the solute transport in the observed locations. Further,the reduction of uncertainty is spatially dependent,which indicates that good locations,geological structure,and boundary conditions will affect the efficiency of the SSC study results.  相似文献   

6.
To derive meaningful results from a geostatistical study, it is extremely important to establish the relationship between geology and variograms. However, it is not always easy to establish such a relationship, mainly because of the inadequacy of quantitative or qualitative information. Large amounts of reliable well-log porosity data and the detailed geological information from a complex carbonate reservoir located in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia provided an ideal case study of the relationships between geology and variograms. The reservoir under consideration is in the form of a gently dipping, elongated anticline and consists of three productive zones which have been subdivided into several lithologically distinct layers. Results, which indicate an excellent match between geology and porosity variograms, are summarized as follows: (1) use of stratigraphic distances resulted in considerable improvement in the behavior of variograms, (2) structurally controlled geometrical anisotropy is the most obvious feature of variograms, and (3) layers consisting of more complex lithologic framework provided variograms with relatively greater nugget variances and shorter ranges. These results provide further insight into geology and form a meaningful basis for estimation and simulation of the reservoir. They also could be used as a general guide in the geostatistical study of similar carbonate reservoirs.  相似文献   

7.
The present study focuses on understanding the leakage potentials of the stored supercritical CO2 plume through caprocks generated in geostatistically created heterogeneous media. For this purpose, two hypothetical cases with different geostatistical features were developed, and two conditional geostatistical simulation models (i.e., sequential indicator simulation or SISIM and generalized coupled Markov chain or GCMC) were applied for the stochastic characterizations of the heterogeneities. Then, predictive CO2 plume migration simulations based on stochastic realizations were performed and summarized. In the geostatistical simulations, the results from the GCMC model showed better performance than those of the SISIM model for the strongly non-stationary case, while SISIM models showed reasonable performance for the weakly non-stationary case in terms of low-permeability lenses characterization. In the subsequent predictive simulations of CO2 plume migration, the observations in the geostatistical simulations were confirmed and the GCMC-based predictions showed underestimations in CO2 leakage in the stationary case, while the SISIM-based predictions showed considerable overestimations in the non-stationary case. The overall results suggest that: (1) proper characterization of low-permeability layering is significantly important in the prediction of CO2 plume behavior, especially for the leakage potential of CO2 and (2) appropriate geostatistical techniques must be selectively employed considering the degree of stationarity of the targeting fields to minimize the uncertainties in the predictions.  相似文献   

8.
Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.  相似文献   

9.
The European remote sensing satellite (ERS-2) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data was used for temporal monitoring of soil moisture at Sukhothai, Thailand. Higher correlations were found between the observed soil moisture and the radar backscattering coefficient. The soil moisture distribution shows great variation in space and time due to its stochastic nature. In order to obtain a better understanding of the nature and causes of spatial variation of soil moisture, the extensive soil moisture measurements observed in Thailand and also remotely sensed ERS-2 SAR data were used for geostatistical analysis. The observed soil moisture shows seasonal variations with mean varying from 3.33 %v/v (dry season) to 33.44 %v/v (wet season). The spatial geostatistical structure also shows clear seasonal variations in the geostatistical characteristics such as range and sill. The sills vary from 1.00 (%v/v)2 for the driest day to 107.57 (%v/v)2 for one of the wet days. The range or the correlation lengths varies between 46.5 and 149.8 m for the wettest and driest periods. The nugget effect does not show strong seasonal pattern or trend but the dry periods usually have a smaller nugget effect than the wet periods. The spherical variogram model fits the sample variograms very well in the case of soil moisture observations while the exponential model fits those of the remotely sensed data. The ranges observed from the observed soil moisture data and remotely sensed data at the same resolution are very similar. Resolution degradation affects the geostatistical structure of the data by reducing the sills, and increasing the ranges.  相似文献   

10.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used to estimate vertical ground surface movement when soils expand and contract due to changes in soil moisture content caused by changing climate conditions. Several counterpropagation ANN test cases were investigated to map climate data (i.e. temperature and rainfall) to vertical ground surface movement at field sites in Texas and Australia. Three of the four ANN test cases use a historical time series of climate data to forecast ground surface elevation relative to a specified datum. The fourth ANN test case predicts the rate of ground surface movement, and requires post‐processing of the predicted rates to calculate ground surface elevation relative to a specified datum. The counterpropagation network has demonstrated a successful mapping of temperature and rainfall data to vertical ground surface movement at a field site when it is trained with a subset of data from the same field site (test cases 1 and 2). The results of training an ANN on one field site and testing it on another field site (test cases 3 and 4) demonstrate the ability of the ANN to capture trends in vertical ground surface movement. When compared with the predictions from a physics‐based method (shrink test‐water content method) that requires measurements/estimates of changes in soil water content, the ANN‐based predictions (based on climatic changes) captured the trends in the field measurements of shrinking–swelling soil surface movements equally well. These findings are promising and merit further investigation with data from additional field sites. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The aim of upscaling is to determine equivalent homogeneous parameters at a coarse-scale from a spatially oscillating fine-scale parameter distribution. To be able to use a limited number of relatively large grid-blocks in numerical oil reservoir simulators or groundwater models, upscaling of the permeability is frequently applied. The spatial fine-scale permeability distribution is generally obtained from geological and geostatistical models. After upscaling, the coarse-scale permeabilities are incorporated in the relatively large grid-blocks of the numerical model. If the porous rock may be approximated as a periodic medium, upscaling can be performed by the method of homogenization. In this paper the homogenization is performed numerically, which gives rise to an approximation error. The complementarity between two different numerical methods – the conformal-nodal finite element method and the mixed-hybrid finite element method – has been used to quantify this error. These two methods yield respectively upper and lower bounds for the eigenvalues of the coarse-scale permeability tensor. Results of 3D numerical experiments are shown, both for the far field and around wells.  相似文献   

12.
In the analysis of petroleum reservoirs, one of the most challenging problems is to use inverse theory in the search for an optimal parameterization of the reservoir. Generally, scientists approach this problem by computing a sensitivity matrix and then perform a singular value decomposition in order to determine the number of degrees of freedom i.e. the number of independent parameters necessary to specify the configuration of the system. Here we propose a complementary approach: it uses the concept of refinement indicators to select those degrees which have the greatest sensitivity to an objective function quantifying the mismatch between measured and simulated data. We apply this approach to the problem of data integration for petrophysical reservoir charaterization where geoscientists are currently working with multimillion cell geological models. Data integration may be performed by gradually deforming (by a linear combination) a set of these multimillion grid geostatistical realizations during the optimization process. The inversion parameters are then reduced to the number of coefficients of this linear combination. However, there is an infinity of geostatistical realizations to choose from which may not be efficient regarding operational constraints. Following our new approach, we are able through a single objective function evaluation to compute refinement indicators that indicate which realizations might improve the iterative geological model in a significant way. This computation is extremely fast as it implies a single gradient computation through the adjoint state approach and dot products. Using only the most sensitive realizations from a given set, we are able to resolve quicker the optimization problem case. We applied this methodology to the integration of interference test data into 3D geostatistical models.  相似文献   

13.
青藏高原气温序列的均一性研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
气象观测资料是气候变化研究的基础, 对气象资料进行均一性检验与订正能够提高气候变化研究的精度和准确性. 利用青藏高原及周边地区1961-2010年65个气象站的逐月平均气温资料, 运用PMFT方法对资料进行均一性检验与订正. 结果表明: 高原平均气温资料均一性状况较差, 有32个站被检测出存在间断点, 占总数的49%. 用订正后均一的气温数据分析得出, 高原1961-2010年年平均气温的升温率为0.32 ℃·(10a)-1, 春、夏、秋、冬季的升温率依次为0.24 ℃·(10a)-1、0.26 ℃·(10a)-1、0.32 ℃·(10a)-1及0.48 ℃·(10a)-1, 略小于用原始数据分析得到的结果. 研究还发现, 数据均一与否对高原整体气候变化分析结果影响不大, 但对局地尺度的气候变化分析结果影响较大. 鉴于高原的气候变化具有显著的区域差异性特征, 因此, 未来在对高原进行气候变化的差异性进行研究时, 气象数据均一性的检验与订正工作就显得尤为重要. 为提高数据均一性检验的精度, 未来应加强气候资料均一性检验技术的研究并尽可能详尽地收集台站的元数据信息.  相似文献   

14.
 A thorough understanding of the characteristics of transmissivity makes groundwater deterministic models more accurate. These transmissivity data characteristics occasionally possess a complicated spatial variation over an investigated site. This study presents both geostatistical estimation and conditional simulation methods to generate spatial transmissivity maps. The measured transmissivity data from the Dulliu area in Yun-Lin county, Taiwan, is used as the case study. The spatial transmissivity maps are simulated by using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS), and estimated by using natural log ordinary kriging and ordinary kriging. Estimation and simulation results indicate that SGS can reproduce the spatial structure of the investigated data. Furthermore, displaying a low spatial variability does not allow the ordinary kriging and natural log kriging estimates to fit the spatial structure and small-scale variation for the investigated data. The maps of kriging estimates are smoother than those of other simulations. A SGS with multiple realizations has significant advantages over ordinary kriging and even natural log kriging techniques at a site with a high variation in investigated data. These results are displayed in geographic information systems (GIS) as basic information for further groundwater study. Received: 27 August 1999 · Accepted: 22 February 2000  相似文献   

15.
徐洋  曹养同  刘成林 《地球科学》2021,46(11):4188-4196
古气候和古卤水温度条件与盐湖成钾有着密切的联系,定量化重建库车盆地早始新世成盐期古卤水温度演化特征对评价盆地成钾潜力具有重要的科学意义.因此,首次以库车盆地西部QL1井下始新统石盐岩为研究对象,在详细的岩相学研究的基础上,开展石盐原生流体包裹体均一温度的定量分析工作.分析结果显示,来自钻孔不同深度的6个样品共有135个均一温度数据,介于21.2~57.8℃,平均值为31.8℃,剖面垂向上自底向顶整体上呈现一个稍微升温的趋势.本研究测定的温度范围、平均温度以及最高温度特征均与同时期特提斯海水温度数据吻合,进一步说明温度数据的可靠性和合理性.另外,高温条件有利于水体发生强烈的蒸发浓缩作用,这点与库车盆地始新世初期沉积的巨厚蒸发岩系和钾盐矿物相符.   相似文献   

16.
基于甘肃省及周边地区46个气象站点的气温和降水年值、月值数据,对数据进行均一化检验和订正后,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall 非参数检验法对甘肃近50a气候变化时空特征进行了分析。结果表明：甘肃省平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温均升温明显,其中以最低气温升温最为显著。气温的季节变化空间差异较大,空间上四季最低气温和极端最低气温升温最显著,春、冬季平均最低气温升温最显著;夏、秋季极端最低气温升温最为显著。降水变化的区域差异大,降水气候倾向率最小值达-22.2mm·（10a）-1,最大值14.1 mm·（10a）-1,乌鞘岭以东表现为减少趋势,以西增加。河西地区气温突变时间为1986年,早于河东气温突变时间（1993年）。甘肃气候变化时空差异明显,乌鞘岭是近50a甘肃气候转型分异的一条重要分界线。  相似文献   

17.
Methodology for statistical procedures to perform tests of hypothesis pertaining to various aspects of geostatistical investigations has been slow in developing. The correlated nature of the data precludes most classical tests and makes the design of new tests difficult. Recent studies have led to modifications of the classical t test which allow for the intercorrelation. In addition, results for certain nonparametric tests have been obtained. The conclusions of these studies provide a variety of new tools for the geostatistician in deciding questions on significant differences and magnitudes.This paper was presented at MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 14 April 1987.  相似文献   

18.
合成孔径雷达(synthetic aperture radar, SAR)具有其全天候、全天时、穿云透雾的工作能力, 广泛应用于山地冰川动态监测中. 利用2006年6-9月三期ALOS/PALSAR雷达影像, 采用偏移量跟踪技术, 提取了喜马拉雅山珠穆朗玛峰(珠峰)区域的冰川运动速度, 分析了区域内冰川运动速度空间差异及其影响因素. 结果表明: 研究区31条山谷冰川平均运动速度为9.3 cm·d-1, 总体上以珠峰-洛子峰南北向山脊线为界限, 东侧和东南侧冰川日均运动速度(11.1 cm·d-1)普遍高于北部和西北部冰川日均运动速度(5.4 cm·d-1). 冰川消融区非表碛区冰川平均运动速度为表碛覆盖区平均运动速度的2.2倍, 冰面湖的发育在一定程度上加剧冰川运动速度波动. 在气候与非气候因子共同作用和相互间的此消彼长中, 研究区65%的冰川的运动速度自中值高度往下显著减小, 16%的冰川自中值高度往下呈显著增大趋势, 19%冰川消融区运动速度无显著变化趋势.  相似文献   

19.
Simulating a rock fracture distribution is an important problem common to various fields in geosciences. This paper presents GEOFRAC, a geostatistical method to simulate a fracture distribution by incorporating the directions (strikes and dips) of the sampled fracture data into the simulation. Fracture locations are generated randomly following fracture densities assigned by a sequential Gaussian simulation. Fracture directions are transformed into an indicator set consisting of several binary (0 and 1) variables and the variables are compressed using the principal component analysis. Ordinary kriging is then employed to estimate the distributions of these principal values and the results are back-transformed into the coordinate system of the original indicator set. Fracture directions are generated randomly using their histograms within the defined directional interval. Finally, facets (fracture elements) are determined from the simulated locations and directions, and the fractures within the angle and distance tolerances are connected to form a fracture plane. From a case study of applying GEOFRAC to the fracture data in Kikuma granite, southwest Japan, GEOFRAC was shown to be able to depict a plausible fracture system because the simulated directions corresponded well to those measured. Furthermore, the simulated fracture system was available to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the study site, which was roughly in agreement with the average of hydraulic test results.  相似文献   

20.
This paper assesses village level vulnerability profiles of the forested landscape in Bengal Duars region. Vulnerability of forested landscape is addressed by indicator-based approach with finer details using GIS-based interactive model under present climate. The three integrant of vulnerability are inscribed: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, by taking into consideration of twenty-one environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified. Being located in the foothills of Eastern Himalaya sudden variation of slope in Bengal Duars region results in frequent flooding and huge damage to forested landscape. Change of climate, degradation of forest resources and socio-economic backwardness further enhances the degree of vulnerability. It has been detected that 61% of area in Bengal Duars is configured to be vulnerable to climate change. The most vulnerable areas are the forested cover in Jalpaiguri, Baikunthapur, Wildlife-II, Wildlife-III, and Buxa Tiger Reserve East and their surrounding landscape with more climatic variation, disrupted by anthropogenic and non-climatic activities and less access to infrastructural and socioeconomic facilities.  相似文献   

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