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1.
In this paper we provide a computational framework for evaluation of reliability and safety assessment of infrastructures. It is based on the combined application of the dynamic bounds (DB) method and a probabilistic finite element model (FEM). The DB improves the computational efficiency of the FEM when calculating time-dependent failure analyses of coastal and offshore structures, and can speed up the simulation process by several orders of magnitude. Our approach is demonstrated here for an example problem, and shown to be the most efficient method in applications with a limited number of influential variables, which is true for geotechnical and coastal flood defence systems. It is applied to the 17th Street flood wall, a failing component of the flood defence system in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. The variation in soil parameters is a critical input in the reliability estimation of this structure, and the calculated probability of failure depends on these assumed values. 相似文献
2.
Chan-Hee Park Christof Beyer Sebastian Bauer Olaf Kolditz 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(8):1755-1766
Precise and efficient numerical simulation of transport processes in subsurface systems is a prerequisite for many site investigation
or remediation studies. Random walk particle tracking (RWPT) methods have been introduced in the past to overcome numerical
difficulties when simulating propagation processes in porous media such as advection-dominated mass transport. Crucial for
the precision of RWPT methods is the accuracy of the numerically calculated ground water velocity field. In this paper, a
global node-based method for velocity calculation is used, which was originally proposed by Yeh (Water Resour Res 7:1216–1225,
1981). This method is improved in three ways: (1) extension to unstructured grids, (2) significant enhancement of computational
efficiency, and (3) extension to saturated (groundwater) as well as unsaturated systems (soil water). The novel RWPT method
is tested with numerical benchmark examples from the literature and used in two field scale applications of contaminant transport
in saturated and unsaturated ground water. To evaluate advective transport of the model, the accuracy of the velocity field
is demonstrated by comparing several published results of particle pathlines or streamlines. Given the chosen test problem,
the global node-based velocity estimation is found to be as accurate as the CK method (Cordes and Kinzelbach in Water Resour
Res 28(11):2903–2911, 1992) but less accurate than the mixed or mixed-hybrid finite element methods for flow in highly heterogeneous media. To evaluate
advective–diffusive transport, a transport problem studied by Hassan and Mohamed (J Hydrol 275(3–4):242–260, 2003) is investigated here and evaluated using different numbers of particles. The results indicate that the number of particles
required for the given problem is decreased using the proposed method by about two orders of magnitude without losing accuracy
of the concentration contours as compared to the published numbers. 相似文献
3.
In this study, we address the effective method to apply a novel reliability method integrated with finite element models to
the safety assessment of pilot site Scheldt in the Netherlands. This site was considered as one of the three main pilot sites
in Europe to assess the application of newly suggested techniques in order to reduce and manage the flood risk in the Floodsite
project. , 2004–2009). The novel method of dynamic bounds (DB) is applied to this site after a successful experience in (Rajabalinejad in Reliability
methods for finite element models, 1 edn. IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2009). In this study, the bi-functional response of the finite element model is considered, and the dimensional uncertainty is
defined presenting the expected uncertainty for a certain dimension in the DB method. The uncertainty is used as a judgment
tool to choose the dimension for the DB method for the desired accuracy. The results obtained by applying this technique are
presented in this paper. 相似文献
4.
A recently developed Bayesian interpolation method (BI) and its application to safety assessment of a flood defense structure
are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional Bayesian Monte Carlo method (BMC) that has been proposed in (Rajabalinejad
2009) to develop a weighted logical dependence between neighboring points. The concept of global uncertainty is adequately explained
and different uncertainty association models (UAMs) are presented for linking the local and global uncertainty. Based on the
global uncertainty, a simplified approach is introduced. By applying the global uncertainty, we apply the Guassian error estimation
to general models and the Generalized Beta (GB) distribution to monotonic models. Our main objective in this research is to
simplify the newly developed BMC method and demonstrate that it can dramatically improve the simulation efficiency by using
prior information from outcomes of the preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for the BI method
geared to multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model, and apply the coupled models
to the reliability assessment of a flood defense for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. 相似文献
5.
提出了基于子集模拟的边坡风险评估的高效随机有限元法（RFEM）,推导了基于子集模拟的边坡失效概率和失效风险的计算公式,并给出了基于高效RFEM的边坡可靠度分析和风险评估流程图。采用一个边坡算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于子集模拟的高效RFEM可以视为是对基于蒙特卡洛模拟的传统RFEM的改进,显著地提高了失效概率和失效风险的计算效率以及失效样本的产生能力,非常适用于分析小失效概率的可靠度问题,极大地增强了RFEM在边坡可靠度分析和风险评估中的实用性。高效RFEM将边坡的整体失效风险分解为对应不同概率水平的边坡失效风险,并量化了它们对整体风险的相对贡献度。在该方法中,边坡可靠度分析和风险评估与确定性边坡有限元分析互不耦合,极大地简化了它们的计算过程。此外,土体不排水抗剪强度的竖向空间变异性对边坡失效风险具有显著的影响。 相似文献
6.
The enhanced velocity mixed finite element method, due to Wheeler et al. (Comput Geosci 6(3–4):315–332, 2002), is analyzed and extended to the problem of modeling slightly compressible flow coupled to the transport of chemical species
through porous media, on non-matching multiblock grids. Applications include modeling bio-remediation of heavy oil spills
and many other subsurface hazardous wastes, angiogenesis in transition of tumors from dormant to malignant states, transport
of contaminants in ground water flow, and acid injection from well bores to increase permeability of surrounding rock. The
analysis and numerical examples presented here demonstrate convergence and computational efficiency of this method. 相似文献
7.
Laurent Bourgouin Hans-Bernd Mühlhaus Alina Jane Hale Antonin Arsac 《Acta Geotechnica》2006,1(4):225-236
The level set method has been implemented in a computational volcanology context. New techniques are presented to solve the advection equation and the reinitialisation equation. These techniques are based upon an algorithm developed in the finite difference context, but are modified to take advantage of the robustness of the finite element method. The resulting algorithm is tested on a well documented Rayleigh–Taylor instability benchmark [19], and on an axisymmetric problem where the analytical solution is known. Finally, the algorithm is applied to a basic study of lava dome growth. 相似文献
8.
In this paper, a nonlinear numerical technique is developed to calculate the limit load and failure mode of structures obeying an ellipsoid yield criterion by means of the kinematic limit theorem, nonlinear programming theory and displacement-based finite element method. Using an associated flow rule, a general yield criterion expressed by an ellipsoid equation can be directly introduced into the kinematic theorem of limit analysis. The yield surface is not linearized and instead a nonlinear purely kinematic formulation is obtained. The nonlinear formulation has a smaller number of constraints and requires less computational effort than a linear formulation. By applying the finite element method, the kinematic limit analysis with an ellipsoid yield criterion is formulated as a nonlinear mathematical programming problem subject to only a small number of equality constraints. The objective function corresponds to the dissipation power which is to be minimized and an upper bound to the plastic limit load of a structure can then be calculated by solving the minimum optimization problem. An effective, direct iterative algorithm has been developed to solve the resulting nonlinear programming formulation. The calculation is based purely on kinematically admissible velocities. The stress field does not need to be calculated and the failure mode of structures can be obtained. The proposed method can be used to calculate the bearing capacity of clay soils in a direct way. Some examples are given to illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. 相似文献
9.
针对目前参数估计方法存在稀遇洪水频率设计值偏大的问题,提出采用基于数值次序统计量期望值的适线法计算洪水频率设计初始值;针对目前参数估计方法存在常遇洪水频率设计值偏小的问题,提出采用周文德公式修正目前频率设计偏小的情形,计算洪水频率设计修正值;针对目前传统方法计算洪水频率设计值抽样误差大的问题,提出采用基于数值次序统计量标准差的方法计算洪水频率设计保证值。定量分析表明,提出的基于数值次序统计量期望值的优化适线法具有良好的无偏性和有效性;寸滩站洪水频率设计修正值大于频率设计初始值,且两者偏差随着频率减小而减小;寸滩站洪水频率设计保证值明显大于修正值。 相似文献
10.
Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional
techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface
runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems
in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would
directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and
Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly
rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall
events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these
five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory
whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield
accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of
the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall
is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion
in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks. 相似文献
11.
基于结构网格,采用有限体积法建立了二维水动力学模型,模拟溃坝洪水在复杂实际地形条件下的流动过程。该模型采用中心迎风格式求解界面通量,并结合对界面变量的线性重构,使其具有空间上的二阶精度。分别采用中心差分方法和半隐式方法对底床坡度项和摩擦阻力项进行离散,保证了模型的和谐性和稳定性。对于复杂地形条件下溃坝洪水的模拟,负水深的产生是影响模型稳定的关键因素。当库朗特数小于0.25时,模型能够保证任何时刻的计算水深都是非负的,而无需对负水深单元进行特殊处理。因此,相比于现有的大部分溃坝洪水模型,该模型具有更强的鲁棒性和稳定性。 相似文献
12.
《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(3-4):195-206
A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures. 相似文献
13.
当前极端气候频发,溃坝事件时有发生,提出一种超标准洪水条件下快速判别土石坝安全性的方法对于提升中国防洪决策水平、提高抗洪抢险能力具有重要的意义。然而,由于坝体结构复杂,不确定因素众多,超标准条件下快速判断土石坝安全性具有非常大的难度。借鉴堰塞湖天然坝安全性判别的研究方法,将判别分析法应用于超标准洪水条件下土石坝的安全性快速判别分析,结果证明,该套思路是可行的。从各坝体安全性判别分析方法的预测结果来看,判别分析法和IDB指标判别方法具有较高的判别正确率,两种判别方法正确率均达到90.0%,优于其它简单指标判别方法。 相似文献
14.
Particle swarm optimization for numerical bifurcation analysis in computational inelasticity 
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下载免费PDF全文 An efficient and robust algorithm to numerically detect material instability or bifurcation is of great importance to the understanding and simulation of material failure in computational and applied mechanics. In this work, an intelligence optimizer, termed the particle swarm optimization, is introduced to the numerical solution of material bifurcation problem consisting of finding the bifurcation time as well as the corresponding bifurcation directions. The detection of material bifurcation is approached as a constrained minimization problem where the determinant of the acoustic tensor is minimized. The performance of the particle swarm optimization method is tested through numerical bifurcation analysis on both small and finite deformation material models in computational inelasticity with increasing complexity. Compared with conventional numerical approaches to detect material bifurcation, the proposed method demonstrates superior performance in terms of both computational efficiency and robustness. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Operational flood prediction and flood risk assessment have become important components of flood management. One main aspect is the reliability assessment of the flood defence line during a flood event. This is generally performed by a comparison of the water level in the river to the crest height of the dikes whilst taking only hydraulic and geometric aspects into account. Additional information about material zones and material parameters are often available. However, these data are not in an appropriate shape when deriving the reliability of the flood defence line. This paper outlines how the fragility curve of a dike section is used to appropriately integrate geostatic and geohydraulic dike characteristics into operational flood management systems. Fragility curves are the result of a model-based reliability analysis and they summarise the dike performance depending on the water level. Failure modes such as piping or slope failure are included. In a case study, fragility curves for dike sections along the River Emscher (Germany) are determined. Their practical implementation in an operational flood management system shows an improvement in the operational reliability assessment due to the additional information taken into account. The use of fragility curves also supports the decision-making processes when emergency flood protection measures are required. 相似文献
16.
K. Lendering T. Schweckendiek M. Kok 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):203-217
Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by flood defence systems along main water bodies such as rivers, lakes or the sea. Inside polders, canal levees provide protection from smaller water bodies. Canal levees are mainly earthen levees along drainage canals that drain excess water from polders to the main water bodies. The water levels in these canals are regulated. During the last decades, probabilistic approaches have been developed to quantify the probability of failure of flood defences along the main water bodies. This paper proposes several extensions to this method to quantify the probability of failure of canal levees. These extensions include a method to account for (i) water-level regulation in canals, (ii) the effect of maintenance dredging on the geohydrological response of the canal levee and (iii) survival of loads in the past. The results of a case study demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of quantifying the probability of failure of canal levees and is useful for exploring the relative benefit of risk mitigating measures for canal levees. 相似文献
17.
Sergey Oladyshkin Holger Class Rainer Helmig Wolfgang Nowak 《Computational Geosciences》2011,15(3):565-577
CO2 storage in geological formations is currently being discussed intensively as a technology with a high potential for mitigating
CO2 emissions. However, any large-scale application requires a thorough analysis of the potential risks. Current numerical simulation
models are too expensive for probabilistic risk analysis or stochastic approaches based on a brute-force approach of repeated
simulation. Even single deterministic simulations may require parallel high-performance computing. The multiphase flow processes
involved are too non-linear for quasi-linear error propagation and other simplified stochastic tools. As an alternative approach,
we propose a massive stochastic model reduction based on the probabilistic collocation method. The model response is projected
onto a higher-order orthogonal basis of polynomials to approximate dependence on uncertain parameters (porosity, permeability,
etc.) and design parameters (injection rate, depth, etc.). This allows for a non-linear propagation of model uncertainty affecting
the predicted risk, ensures fast computation, and provides a powerful tool for combining design variables and uncertain variables
into one approach based on an integrative response surface. Thus, the design task of finding optimal injection regimes explicitly
includes uncertainty, which leads to robust designs with a minimum failure probability. We validate our proposed stochastic
approach by Monte Carlo simulation using a common 3D benchmark problem (Class et al., Comput Geosci 13:451–467, 2009). A reasonable compromise between computational efforts and precision was reached already with second-order polynomials.
In our case study, the proposed approach yields a significant computational speed-up by a factor of 100 compared with the
Monte Carlo evaluation. We demonstrate that, due to the non-linearity of the flow and transport processes during CO2 injection, including uncertainty in the analysis leads to a systematic and significant shift of the predicted leakage rates
toward higher values compared with deterministic simulations, affecting both risk estimates and the design of injection scenarios. 相似文献
18.
A challenging computational problem arises when a discrete structure (e.g. foundation) interacts with an unbounded medium (e.g. deep soil deposit), particularly if general loading conditions and non‐linear material behaviour is assumed. In this paper, a novel method for dealing with such a problem is formulated by combining conventional three‐dimensional finite‐elements with the recently developed scaled boundary finite‐element method. The scaled boundary finite‐element method is a semi‐analytical technique based on finite‐elements that obtains a symmetric stiffness matrix with respect to degrees of freedom on a discretized boundary. The method is particularly well suited to modelling unbounded domains as analytical solutions are found in a radial co‐ordinate direction, but, unlike the boundary‐element method, no complex fundamental solution is required. A technique for coupling the stiffness matrix of bounded three‐dimensional finite‐element domain with the stiffness matrix of the unbounded scaled boundary finite‐element domain, which uses a Fourier series to model the variation of displacement in the circumferential direction of the cylindrical co‐ordinate system, is described. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the new formulation is demonstrated through the linear elastic analysis of rigid circular and square footings. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
In this paper a new finite element formulation for numerical analysis of diffused and localized failure behavior of saturated and partially saturated gradient poroplastic materials is proposed. The new finite element includes interpolation functions of first order (C1) for the internal variables field while classical C0 interpolation functions for the kinematic fields and pore pressure. This finite element formulation is compatible with a thermodynamically consistent gradient poroplastic theory previously proposed by the authors. In this material theory the internal variables are the only ones of non-local character. To verify the numerical efficiency of the proposed finite element formulation, the non-local gradient poroplastic constitutive theory is combined with the modified Cam Clay model for partially saturated continua. Thereby, the volumetric strain of the solid skeleton and the plastic porosity are the internal variables of the constitutive theory. The numerical results in this paper demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed finite element formulation to capture diffuse and localized failure modes of boundary value problems of porous media, depending on the acting confining pressure and on the material saturation degree. 相似文献
20.
In application to numerical analysis of geotechnical problems, the limit-state surface is usually not known in any closed form. The probability of failure can be assessed via the so-called reliability index. A minimization problem can naturally be formed with an implicit equality constraint defined as the limit-state function and optimization methods can be used for such problems. In this paper, a genetic algorithm is proposed and incorporated into a displacement finite element method to find the Hasofer–Lind reliability index. The probabilistic finite element method is then used to analyse the reliability of classical geotechnical systems. The performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) is compared with simpler probability methods such as the first-order-second-moment Taylor series method. The comparison shows that the GA can produce the results fairly quickly and is applicable to evaluation of the failure performance of geotechnical problems involving a large number of decision variables. 相似文献