共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 59 毫秒
1.
以平治河岩溶流域为研究对象,分析其地下退水规律,将其划分为9个子流域,在传统新安江模型基础上,将地下径流划分为慢速和快速地下径流,分别采用两个线性水库进行模拟,构建降雨-径流模拟方案,并选取2011-2015年期间的7场洪水作为率定期洪水,以确定性系数（DC）最大为优化目标,应用遗传算法率定模型参数,而以8场洪水作为验证期洪水进行验证分析,获得率定期合格率为85.71%,平均确定性系数为0.846,验证期合格率为75%,平均确定性系数为0.893,达到乙级精度。其结果表明所构建的模拟方案能够较好地模拟该流域的径流规律。 相似文献
2.
This paper deals with the presentation of a flood warning system (GFWS) developed for the specific characteristics of the Guadalhorce basin (3,200 km2, SE of Spain), which is poorly gauged and often affected by flash and plain floods. Its complementarity with the European flood alert system (EFAS) has also been studied. At a lower resolution, EFAS is able to provide a flood forecast several days in advance. The GFWS is adapted to the use of distributed rainfall maps (such as radar rainfall estimates), and discharge forecasts are computed using a distributed rainfall–runoff model. Due to the lack of flow measurements, the model parameters calibrated on a small watershed have been transferred in most of the basin area. The system is oriented to provide distributed warnings and fulfills the requirements of ungauged basins. This work reports on the performance of the system on two recent rainfall events that caused several inundations. These results show how the GFWS performed well and was able to forecast the location and timing of flooding. It demonstrates that despite its limitations, a simple rainfall–runoff model and a relatively simple calibration could be useful for event risk management. Moreover, with low resolution and long anticipation, EFAS appears as a good complement tool to improve flood forecasting and compensate for the short lead times of the GFWS. 相似文献
3.
4.
Michael J. Friedel 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(1):15-34
A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged
coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect
temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable
for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information
(10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression
equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior
information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty
in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse
calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences
among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval.
Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2–26%) than rainfall
estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year
recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but
outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally
computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. 相似文献
5.
Lawal Billa Hamid Assilzadeh Shattri Mansor Ahmed R. Mahmud Abdul H. Ghazali 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2011,3(3):309-317
Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3–12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R2 = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R2 = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R2 = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through ‘Nowcasting’, thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings. 相似文献
6.
M. Masoud 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(5):2587-2606
Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge). 相似文献
7.
Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan Md. Ferozur Rahaman Riad Arefin Shamser Ali Quamrul Hasan Mazumder 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2018,91(5):613-620
Demand for irrigation water increases day by day along with meteorological vagaries and extension of irrigated area in the drought-prone Barind area of Bangladesh. This increasing stress on water resource is gradually making the area water scare. The study is aimed at studying the morphometric parameters of the Atrai-Sib river basin in the Barind area and on their relevance in water resource management based on satellite images and SRTM DEM. Computation and delineation of linear and areal aspects of the river basin and its morphometric components reveals that stream order ranges from first to eighth order showing dendritic drainage pattern. The basin represents homogeneity of soil texture; possibility of flash flood after heavy rainfall with low discharge of runoff; and is not largely affected by structural disturbance. Moderate drainage density of the river basin area indicates semipermeable soil lithology with moderate vegetation. Mean bifurcation ratio of the basin is calculated as 3.92 and elongation ratio 0.75, which indicate elongated shape of the river basin with low to moderate relief bounded in the east and west by ‘moderate to steep’ sloping land area. It reveals a flatter peak of runoff flow for longer duration and gravity flow of water. The gentle but undulating slope of the basin represents ‘excellent’ category for groundwater management as the site is favorable for infiltration due to maximum time of runoff water percolation. The east facing slopes of the basin show higher moisture content and higher vegetation than the west-facing slope. The land use pattern of the area shows that major part (95.29%) comes under the cultivated land which will support future river basin development and management. Results obtained from the study would be useful in categorization of river basins for future water resource development and management, and selection of suitable sites for water conservation structures such as check dam, percolation tank, artificial recharge of groundwater through MAR technique etc. 相似文献
8.
Alexander Yakirevich Avraham Dody Eilon M. Adar Viacheslav Borisov Mebus Geyh 《Hydrogeology Journal》1998,6(1):50-65
Temporal distributions of the isotopic composition in arid rain storms and in the associated runoff were investigated in
a small arid rocky basin in Israel. Customized rain and runoff samplers provided sequential water samples hermetically sealed
in high-density PVC bags. In several storms where the runoff was isotopically depleted, compared with the rainfall, the difference
could not be explained by fractionation effects occurring during overland flow. A water-balance study relating the runoff
discharge to rainfall over a rocky watershed showed that the entire discharge is produced by a very small segment (1–2 mm)
of the rain storm. The major objective, therefore, was to provide quantitative relations between segments of rainfall (rain
showers and rain spells) and runoff. The time distribution of the composition of stable isotopes (oxygen and hydrogen) was
used to quantify the correlation between the rain spell's amount and the consequent runoff. The aim of this work was to (a)
utilize the dynamic variations in the isotopic composition in rainfall and runoff and model the magnitude of surface-storage
capacity associated with runoff processes of overland flow, and (b) characterize the isotopic composition of the percolating
water with respect to the isotopic distribution in rainfall and runoff events. The conceptual model postulates an isotopic
mixing of overland flow with water within the depression storage. A transport model was then formulated in order to estimate
the physical watershed parameters that control the development of overland flow from a certain rainfall period. Part I (this
paper) presents the results and the assessment of the relative depression storage obtained from oxygen-18 and deuterium analyses
that lead to the physical and mathematical formulation of a double-component model of kinematic-wave flow and transport, which
is presented in Part II (accompanying paper).
Received, February 1997 · Revised, September 1997 · Accepted, September 1997 相似文献
9.
渭河上游典型小流域水文特征差异性分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
根据渭河流域两个典型小流域的实测水文和气象资料,分析了不同气候和下垫面条件的流域水文特征及其差异性.结果表明:清源河和牛谷河流域的年平均气温呈上升趋势,降水、径流、泥沙、降水径流系数均呈减少趋势;两个流域的降水、径流和泥沙历年变化不一致,1998-2013年清源河流域降水量相对牛谷河流域减少了8.6%,1993-2013年牛谷河的径流相对减少了21.4%,2000-2013年清源河的泥沙相对减少了24.0%;两个流域的面积、河长、海拔、植被覆盖率等流域特征值相对差在-29.4%~-4.5%之间,气温、降水等气候特征值相对差在-27.4%~16.7%之间,而径流特征值相差较大,相对差在-90.2%~-84.7%之间,泥沙特征差异性更大,相对差在292%~347%之间.对气候、下垫面和人类活动对水文要素的影响进行了研究,受人类活动的影响,清源河流域1996-2013年年径流减少11.6%,牛谷河流域1993-2006年年径流减少25.9%,2007-2013年再减少10.5%,研究人类活动的调水减沙效应,对流域综合治理、生态环境建设具有一定的指导意义.同时,充分利用不同小流域实测水文气象数据,分析水文气象要素的变化规律,可以为分布式水文模型研究和中小河流洪水预警预报提供重要依据. 相似文献
10.
Xiaoli Li Zhiqiang Li Jiansi Yang Yaohui Liu Bo Fu Wenhua Qi Xiwei Fan 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):843-861
The present study analyzes the runoff response during extreme rain events over the basin of Subarnarekha River in India using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The SWAT model is configured for the Subarnarekha River basin with 32 sub-basins. Three gauging stations in the basin (viz., Adityapur, Jamshedpur and Ghatshila) were selected to assess the model performance. Daily stream flow data are taken from Central Water Commission, India—Water Resources Information System. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using the soil and water assessment tool-calibration uncertainty programs (SWAT-CUPs) with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model was run for the period from 1982 to 2011 with a calibration period from 1982 to 1997 and a validation period from 1998 to 2011. The sensitivity of basin parameters has been analyzed in order to improve the runoff simulation efficiency of the model. The study concluded that the model performed well in Ghatshila gauging station with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.68 during calibration and 0.62 during validation at daily scale. The model, thus calibrated and validated, was then applied to evaluate the extreme monsoon rain events in recent years. Five extreme events were identified in Jamshedpur and Ghatshila sub-basins of Subarnarekha River basin. The simulation results were found to be good for the extreme events with the NSE of 0.89 at Jamshedpur and 0.96 at Ghatshila gauging stations. The findings of this study can be useful in runoff simulation and flood forecasting for extreme rainfall events in Subarnarekha River basin. 相似文献
11.
Most urban agglomerations located in the Mumbai coastal region in India are vulnerable to flooding due to increasing frequency of the short-duration heavy rainfall, by virtue of their location at foothills on one side and tidal variations on the other side. Steep slopes in the catchment ensure fast runoff and tidal variation adds to backwater effect in the drainage system, which together are favorable for flooding. The present study simulates the flood inundation due to heavy rainfall and high-tide conditions in a coastal urban catchment within Mumbai region with detention pond. Overland flow is modeled using a mass balance approach, which can adapt to hilly slopes and smoothly accommodate detention pond hydraulics. Dynamic wave channel routing based on finite element method captures the backwater effects due to tidal variation, and raster-based flood inundation model enables direct use of digital elevation model. The integrated model is capable of simulating detention pond hydraulics within the raster flood model for heavy rainfall events. The database required for the model is obtained from the geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Application of the integrated model to literature problems and the catchment of the study area for two non-flooding events gave satisfactory results. Further, the model is applied to an extreme rainfall event of July 26, 2005, coinciding with high-tide conditions, which revealed vulnerability of the area to flooding despite of an existing detention pond. A sensitivity analysis on the location of detention pond indicated that catchment response can be better governed by relocating the detention pond to upstream of existing detention pond especially when heavy rainfall events are becoming frequent. 相似文献
12.
13.
A method for flood hazard mapping based on basin morphometry: application in two catchments in Greece 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Michalis Diakakis 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(3):803-814
Basin morphometric parameters play an important role in hydrological processes, as they largely control a catchment’s hydrologic
response. Their analysis becomes even more significant when studying runoff reaction to intense rainfall, especially in the
case of ungauged, flash flood prone basins. Unit hydrographs are one of the useful tools for estimating runoff when instrumental
data are inadequate. In this work, instantaneous unit hydrographs based on the time-area method have been compiled along the
drainage networks of two small rural catchments in Greece, situated approximately 25 km northeast of its capital, Athens.
The two catchments drained by ephemeral torrents, namely Rapentosa and Charadros, have been subject to flash flooding during
the last decades, which caused extensive damages at the local small towns of Marathon and Vranas. Hydrograph compilation in
numerous locations along the catchments’ drainage networks directly reflected the runoff conditions across each basin against
a given rainfall. This gave a holistic assessment of their hydrologic response, allowing the detection of areas where peak
flow rates were elevated and therefore, there was higher flood potential. The resulting flood hazard zonation showed good
correlation with locations of damages induced by past flood events, indicating that the method can successfully predict flood
hazard spatial distribution. The whole methodology was based on geographic information software due to its excellent capabilities
on storing and processing spatial data. 相似文献
14.
15.
K. Sreelash Rajat Kumar Sharma J. A. Gayathri B. Upendra K. Maya D. Padmalal 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2018,92(5):548-554
The Western Ghats plays a pivotal role in determining the hydrological and hydroclimatic regime of Peninsular India. The mountainous catchments of the Ghats are the primary contributors of flow in the rivers that sustains the life and agricultural productivity in the area. Although many studies have been conducted in the past decades to understand long term trends in the meteorological and hydrological variables of major river basins, not much attention have been made to unfold the relationship existing among rainfall and river hydrology of natural drainages on either side of the Western Ghats which host one of the unique biodiversity hotspots across the world. Therefore, an attempt has been made in this paper to examine the short term (last three decades) changes in the rainfall pattern and its influence on the hydrological characteristics of some of the important rivers draining the southern Western Ghats as a case study. The short term, annual and seasonal trends in the rainfall, and its variability and discharge were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s estimator of slope. The study showed a decreasing trend in rainfall in the southwest monsoon while a reverse trend is noticed in northeast monsoon. Correspondingly, the discharge of the west and east flowing rivers also showed a declining trend in the southwest monsoon season. The runoff coefficient also followed the trends in the discharge. The runoff coefficient of the Periyar river showed a decreasing trend, whereas the Cauvery river exhibited an increasing trend. A high-resolution analysis of rainfall data revealed that the number of moderate rainfall events showed a decreasing trend throughout the southern Western Ghats, whereas the high intensity rainfall events showed an opposite trend. The decline in groundwater level in the areas which recorded an increase in high intensity rainfall events and decrease in moderate rainfall events showed that the groundwater recharge process is significantly affected by changes in the rainfall pattern of the area. 相似文献
16.
以太湖流域雪堰镇为例,通过2009年3月~2010年2月连续12个月及两场次降雨事件的水质监测进行分析,研究不同河流、月份、区域、汛情、土地利用类型下氮素流失规律及形态特性,分析降雨过程中不同尺度3个流域(上涧村、龙泉河、雪堰镇)氮流失特征和不同河段氮流失规律。研究结果表明,雪堰镇氮素为劣Ⅴ类,非汛期污染比汛期严重,变化幅度大,不稳定,氮以溶解态为主,溶解态氮以硝氮为主;镇区硝氮浓度较非镇区低,氨氮比非镇区高,坑塘水面氮流失最严重,有林地(乔木较多)氮流失最少,茶园硝氮占溶解态氮百分比最高,果园氨氮占溶解态氮百分比最高;降雨前期未产流前氮素流失稳定,产流后流失越来越大,不同河段氮沿程变化基本稳定。 相似文献
17.
Issa Sakho Jean-Paul Dupont Mohamed Talla Cisse Sanae El Janyani Soda Loum 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(6):253
The understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamic of river systems is essential for developing sustainable water resource management plan. For the Senegal River, this subject is very complex according to the context of (1) transboundary basin, (2) several contrasted climatic zones (Guinea, South Sudanian, North Sudanian and Sahelian) with high rainfall variability and (3) high human pressures (dam construction and water uses). From 1954 to 2000, 80% (mean value) of the Senegal River flows recorded downstream part of the basin are provided by three majors tributaries (Bafing, Bakoye and Faléme) located in the upstream part. Then, in our study, this upper Senegal River basin was chosen in order to investigate the hydrological responses to rainfall variability and dam construction. Two nonparametric statistical methods, Mann–Kendall and Hubert test, were used to detect the long-term changes in the time series of precipitation and water discharge (1954–2000) at the annual and seasonal scales. The continuous wavelet transform (Morlet Wavelet) was employed to characterize the different mode in the water discharge variability. Flow duration curve and cumulative curve methods were used to assess the impact of dams on the hydrological regime of the Senegal River. Results showed that the Senegal River flows have been changing under the influence of both rainfall variation and dam construction. The long-term evolution of water discharge depend on long-term rainfall variability: The wet periods of the 1950s and 1960s correspond to periods of higher river flows, while the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s led to unprecedented river flows deficits. The new period, since 1994, show a high inter-annual variability of rainfall and discharge without clear trend. At seasonal scale, the results showed also a strong relationship between rainfall and runoff (R 2 > 0.8) resulting from alternating wet and dry seasons and rapid hydrological responses according to annual rainfall. Nevertheless, the observed flows during dry seasons highlighted the influence of water storage and restitution of infiltrated waters in soils and surficial formations during wet seasons. In the dry seasons, the water budget of the three upstream tributaries showed a water deficit at the downstream gauging station. This deficit was characterized by water loss to underlying aquifers and highlighted the influence of geological setting on water balance. However, in this context, water restitution during the dry season remained dependent on climatic zone and on the total annual rainfall volume during the previous wet season. The results have highlighted an impact of the Manantali dam previously obscured: The dam has no effect on the regulation of high river flows. That is what explains that since its construction in 1988, flooding of coastal cities, like Saint-louis, by seasonal river floods has not ceased. The flooding risk in coastal cities is not avoided, and the dams caused hyper-salinization of the Senegal lower estuary. The breach created in the coastal barrier of the Langue of Barbary in October 2003 promotes direct export of excess floodwater to the sea and reduces this risk of flooding in the delta area. But, this solution led to considerable loss of potential water resources, and the authors recommend a new water management plan with a global focus. However, this study shows the positives impacts of the two dams. They allow the availability of freshwater in order to support agricultural irrigation in the valley and delta zone, in particular during low flows periods. 相似文献
18.
Coupled 1D–2D hydrodynamic models are widely utilized in flood hazard mapping. Previous studies adopted conceptual hydrological models or 1D hydrodynamic models to evaluate the impact of drainage density on river flow. However, the drainage density affects not only river flow, but also the flooded area and location. Therefore, this work adopts the 1D–2D model SOBEK to investigate the impact of drainage density on river flow. The uncertainty of drainage density in flood hazard mapping is assessed by a designed case and a real case, Yanshuixi Drainage in Tainan, Taiwan. Analytical results indicate that under the same return period rainfall, reduction in tributary drainages in a model (indicating a lower drainage density) results in an underestimate of the flooded area in tributary drainages. This underestimate causes higher peak discharges and total volume of discharges in the drainages, leading to flooding in certain downstream reaches, thereby overestimating the flooded area. The uncertainty of drainage density decreases with increased rainfall. We suggest that modeling flood hazard mapping with low return period rainfalls requires tributary drainages. For extreme rainfall events, a lower drainage density could be selected, but the drainage density of local key areas should be raised.
相似文献19.
Suketi river basin is located in the Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh, India. It encompasses a central inter-montane valley and surrounding mountainous terrain in the Lower Himachal Himalaya. Morphometric analysis of the Suketi river basin was carried out to study its drainage characteristics and overall groundwater resource potential. The entire Suketi river basin has been divided into five sub-basins based on the catchment areas of Suketi trunk stream and its major tributaries. Quantitative assessment of each sub-basin was carried out for its linear, areal, and relief aspects. The analysis reveals that the drainage network of the entire Suketi river basin constitutes a 7th order basin. Out of five sub-basins, Kansa khad sub-basin (KKSB), Gangli khad sub-basin (GKSB) and Ratti khad sub-basin (RKSB) are 5th order sub-basins. The Dadour khad sub-basin (DKSB) is 6th order sub-basin, while Suketi trunk stream sub-basin (STSSB) is a 7th order sub-basin. The entire drainage basin area reflects late youth to early mature stage of development of the fluvial geomorphic cycle, which is dominated by rain and snow fed lower order streams. It has low stream frequency (Fs) and moderate drainage density (Dd) of 2.69 km/km 2. Bifurcation ratios (Rb) of various stream orders indicate that streams up to 3rd order are surging through highly dissected mountainous terrain, which facilitates high overland flow and less recharge into the sub-surface resulting in low groundwater potential in the zones of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order streams of the Suketi river basin. The circulatory ratio (Rc) of 0.65 and elongation ratio (Re) of 0.80 show elongated nature of the Suketi river basin, while infiltration number (If) of 10.66 indicates dominance of relief features and low groundwater potential in the high altitude mountainous terrain. The asymmetry factor (Af) of Suketi river basin indicates that the palaeo-tectonic tilting, at drainage basin scale, was towards the downstream right side of the drainage basin. The slope map of Suketi river basin has been classified into three main zones, which delineate the runoff zone in the mountains, recharge zone in the transition zone between mountains and valley plane, and discharge zone in the plane areas of Balh valley. 相似文献
20.
The last important floods of the Meuse river have shown the need to design powerful and real-time forecasting tools. With the support of CESAME and the department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UCL, the Service of Hydrologic Studies (SETHY) of the Walloon Ministry of Equipment and Transport developed two models. Hydromax and Hydroaxe. These two complementary and user-friendly applications work with the data provided by the measurement network of SETHY (raingauges, water levels, discharge measurements, weir-gate positions). Hydromax produces local river flow forecasting for the main natural tributaries of the Meuse. These predictions are used by Hydroaxe to compute discharge propagation and water levels all along the Meuse. In Hydromax, the predictions are produced by a grey box model which involves two main parts. A nonlinear production function computes the effective rainfall from the mean areal rainfall. This part is based on a conceptual approach, the river basin being modelled as a reservoir. In the second part, a linear ARX (AutoRegressive model with eXtra input) transfer function (black box), describes the superficial runoff of the effective rainfall towards the watershed outlet. This transfer function is used to compute short term river flow predictions. Hydroaxe uses a Preissmann finite difference scheme to solve the Saint-Venant equations of shallow-water, completed with the Exchange Discharge Model describing the momentum exchanges between the main channel and the floodplains. The optimisation of the computation time requires a one-dimensional approach, based on a dense (1 point/m2) and accurate (15 cm in x, y, z) topography provided by SETHY and carried out through an original combination of technologies: swath bathymetry and airborne laser (Lidar). With the help of a GIS (Geographic Information System) and the DTM (Digital Terrain Model), the water levels calculated by Hydroaxe are transformed in flooded areas, fitted for an easy and fast overview of the extent of the flood event. 相似文献