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1.
Physical principles are considered of asynchronous long-period relationships between the thermal state of the North Atlantic and the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in spring and autumn in the Volga Federal District. The methodology and the results are discussed of testing the informativeness of the fields of sea surface temperature anomalies for long-range forecasting of the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in the district.  相似文献   

2.
The observed meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) estimated from the Rapid Climate Change/Meridional Circulation and Heat Flux Array (RAPID/MOCHA) at 26.5°N are used to evaluate the volume and heat transport in the eddy-resolving model LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM). The authors find that the Florida Current transport and upper mid-ocean transport of the model are underestimated against the observations. The simulated variability of MOC and MHT show a high correlation with the observations, exceeding 0.6. Both the simu-lated and observed MOC and MHT show a significant seasonal variability. According to the power spectrum analysis, LICOM can represent the mesoscale eddy characteristic of the MOC similar to the observation. The model shows a high correlation of 0.58 for the internal upper mid-ocean transport (MO) and a density difference between the western and eastern boundaries, as noted in previous studies.  相似文献   

3.
Using a filter radiometer, the meridional profile of the NO2 photolysis frequency, J(NO2), was measured between 50° N and 30° S during the cruise ANTVII/1 September/October 1988 of the research vessel Polarstern on the Atlantic Ocean. Simultaneously, global broadband irradiance and acrosol were monitored. Clean marine background air with low aerosol loads (b sp=(1–2)×10-5 m-1) was encountered at the latitudes 25° N–30° N and 18° S–27° S, respectively. Under these conditions and an almost cloudless sky J(NO2) reached 7.3×10-3 s-1 (2 sr) for a zenith angle of 30°. Between 30° N and 30° S, the latitudinal variation of the J(NO2) noontime maxima was less than ± 10%, while the mean value at noon was 7.8×10-3 s-1. For the set of all data between 50° N and 30° S, a nearly linear correlation of J(NO2) vs. global broadland irradiance was found. The slope of (8.24±0.03)×10-5 s-1/mW cm-2 agrees within 10% with observations in Jülich (51° N, 6.2° E).  相似文献   

4.
The outputs of 17 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to investigate the temporal and spatial features of 2.0°C warming of the surface temperature over the globe and China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The simulations of the period 1860-1899 in the "historical" experiment are chosen as the baseline. The simulations for the 21st century in the RCP4.5 experiment are chosen as the future project. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that the global mean temperature would cross the 2.0°C warming threshold in 2047. Warming in most of the models would cross the threshold during 2030-2060. For local warming, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere show the fastest warming over the globe. Land areas warm substantially faster than the oceans. Most of the southern oceans would not exceed the 2.0°C warming threshold within the 21st century. Over China, surface warming is substantially faster than the global mean. The area-averaged warming would cross the 2.0°C threshold in 2034. Locally, Northwest China shows the fastest warming trend, followed by Central North China and Northeast China. Central China, East China, and South China are the last to cross the 2.0°C warming threshold. The diversity of the models is also estimated in this study. Generally, the spread among the models increases with time, and there is smaller spread among the models for the areas with the faster warming.  相似文献   

5.
Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering (G4 test) and non-climate engineering (RCP4.5), the regional differences in the extreme high-temperature intensities in China during the implementation of climate engineering programs (2020 to 2069) and after the implementation of those programs (2070 to 2099) were analyzed using a Weibull Distribution Theory. The results indicated the following: (1) The results of this study’s comparison between the two scenarios had shown that climate engineering had not fundamentally changed the spatial features of the high and low differentiations for the extreme high-temperature intensities with the different recurrence periods in China. It was found that in both scenarios, the extreme high-temperature intensities were characterized by the spatial differentiations of low-temperature intensities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and high-temperature intensities in the eastern and northwestern region; (2) This study’s comparison results of the two scenarios had indicated that the climate engineering processes during the two study periods could potentially help mitigate the extreme high-temperature intensities with different recurrence periods in China. Furthermore, the mitigation effects during the implementation period would be significantly higher than those after the implementation; (3) This study’s results of the comparison between the periods ranging from 2020 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under the proposed climate engineering scenarios suggested that there would be no strong rebounding of the extreme high-temperatures following the implementation of climate engineering programs, and the mitigation effects on the extreme high-temperature intensities during the implementation of the climate engineering programs would be significantly higher than after the implementation of the programs; (4) When comparisons were made of the changes of the average temperatures in China before and after the implementation of climate engineering programs, the results had shown that the average temperature in China had been reduced by at least 1.25℃ as a result of climate engineering, which would effectively alleviate the global warming trend, and could also be conducive to the realization of a temperature control target of 1.5℃ in accordance with the Paris Agreement.  相似文献   

6.
Wilhelm May 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):619-644
In this study, the strength of the regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times is assessed, distinguishing between 26 different regions. Also, the strength of these regional climate changes is compared to the strength of the respective changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming of 4.5°C. The magnitude of the regional changes in climate is estimated by means of a normalized regional climate change index, which considers changes in the mean as well as changes in the interannual variability of both near-surface temperature and precipitation. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (1860–2200), the greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. In the other set of simulations (2020–2200), the greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. The study reveals the strongest changes in near-surface climate in the same regions for both scenarios, i.e., the Sahara, Northern Australia, Southern Australia and Amazonia. The regions with the weakest changes in near-surface climate, on the other hand, vary somewhat between the two scenarios except for Western North America and Southern South America, where both scenarios show rather weak changes. The comparison between the magnitude of the regional changes in near-surface climate for the two scenarios reveals relatively strong changes in the 2°C-stabilization scenario at high northern latitudes, i.e., Northeastern Europe, Alaska and Greenland, and in Amazonia. Relatively weak regional climate changes in this scenario, on the other hand, are found for Eastern Asia, Central America, Central South America and Southern South America. The ratios between the regional changes in the near-surface climate for the two scenarios vary considerably between different regions. This illustrates a limitation of obtaining regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a particular scenario by means of scaling the regional changes obtained from a widely used “standard” scenario with the ratio of the changes in the global mean temperature projected by these two scenarios.  相似文献   

7.
As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes on the TP in response to transient and stabilized 2.0°C/1.5°C global warming targets based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) with faster warming at higher elevations is predicted. A surface energy budget analysis is adopted to uncover the mechanisms responsible for the temperature changes. Our results indicate a clear amplified warming on the TP with positive EDW in 2.0°C/1.5°C warmer futures, especially in the cold season. Mean TP warming relative to the reference period (1961–90) is dominated by an enhanced downward longwave radiation flux, while the variations in surface albedo shape the detailed pattern of EDW. For the same global warming level, the temperature changes under transient scenarios are ~0.2°C higher than those under stabilized scenarios, and the characteristics of EDW are broadly similar for both scenarios. These differences can be primarily attributed to the combined effects of differential downward longwave radiation, cloud radiative forcing, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of regional climate on the TP in response to the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlight the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios.  相似文献   

8.
Decision-makers have confirmed the long term objective of preventing a temperature increase greater than 2 °C. This paper aims at appraising by means of a cost-benefit analysis whether decision makers’ commitment to meet the 2 °C objective is credible or not. Within the framework of a cost-benefit type integrated assessment model, we consider that the economy faces climate damages with a threshold at 2 °C. We run the model for a broad set of scenarios accounting for the diversity of “worldviews” in the climate debate. For a significant share of scenarios we observe that it is considered optimal to exceed the threshold. Among those “non-compliers” we discriminate ”involuntary non-compliers” who cannot avoid the exceedance due to physical constraint from ”deliberate compliers” for whom the exceedance results from a deliberate costs-benefit analysis. A second result is that the later mitigation efforts begin, the more difficult it becomes to prevent the exceedance. In particular, the number of ”deliberate non-compliers” dramatically increases if mitigation efforts do not start by 2020, and the influx of involuntary non-compliers become overwhelming f efforts are delayed to 2040. In light of these results we argue that the window of opportunity for reaching the 2 °C objective with a credible chance of success is rapidly closing during the present decade. Further delay in finding a climate agreement critically undermines the credibility of the objective.  相似文献   

9.
《Atmospheric Research》1996,43(1):31-46
The bi-daily (or two-day) variation of meteorological properties is presented for an oceanographic cruise that sailed along 35°N from California to Japan during March and April, 1976. The data were sampled every two hours for 35 days. All the weather variables recorded quantitatively show a two-day periodicity including air temperature (dry- and wet-bulb), sea level pressure, wind velocity (both north and east components as well as speed and direction), total cloud amount and visibility. For pressure and velocity the amplitude of the bi-daily variation is larger than that of the diurnal signal in the same data set analyzed previously; for temperature and cloud amount the bi-daily and diurnal signals have comparable amplitudes. In addition one computed meteorological quantity, relative humidity, exhibits the two-day variation. Also all the oceanographic quantities, sampled once per two hours or oftener, show a two-day cycle: sea-surface temperature, swell height and direction, and sea direction. The bi-daily periodicity can be seen in the raw data but it is more clearly visible after the higher and lower frequencies are reduced by a simple filtering procedure. At 50°N, 145°W (Weather Ship Papa) air temperature, sea level pressure and wind velocity also show a two-day variation during the time of the cruise. Apparently there is no previous documentation of a bi-daily periodicity in meteorological or oceanographic quantities at sea level with which to compare these results. It is hypothesized that the atmosphere is partially adjusting its heat balance horizontally on a time-scale of two days, based on the correlation between air temperature and the north-wind velocity component, which is consistent with a net poleward heat flux all across the ocean. This suggests that the ultimate cause of the bi-daily variation is related to the heating and cooling set up by the sun.  相似文献   

10.
To clarify the link between existing infrastructure legacy and the 2°C target, we extend the work of Davis et al. (Science 329:1330–1333, 2010) by introducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases and the inertia in transportation-needs drivers. We conclude that climate policies able to maintain climate change below 2°C cannot disregard existing infrastructure.  相似文献   

11.
We present the results of the application of the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (CCLM) over the CORDEX-Africa domain. Two simulations were performed driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989–2008): the first one with the standard CORDEX spatial resolution (0.44°), and the second one with an unprecedented high resolution (0.22°). Low-level circulation and its vertical structure, the geographical and temporal evolution of temperature and precipitation are critically evaluated, together with the radiation budget and surface energy fluxes. CCLM is generally able to reproduce the overall features of the African climate, although some deficiencies are evident. Flow circulation is generally well simulated, but an excessive pressure gradient is present between the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahara, related to a marked warm bias over the Sahara and a cold bias over southern Sahel. CCLM underestimates the rainfall peak in the regions affected by the passage of the monsoon. This dry bias may be a consequence of two factors, the misplacement of the monsoon centre and the underestimation of its intensity. The former is related to the northern shift of the West African Heat Low. On the other hand, the underestimation of precipitation intensity may be related to the underestimation of the surface short-wave radiation and latent heat flux. The increase of the model resolution does not bring evident improvements to the results for monthly means statistics. As a result, it appears that 0.44° is a suitable compromise between model performances and computational constrains.  相似文献   

12.
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13.
Given current international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, we seek to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes; further we seek to determine what global-mean temperature increase would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming the norm. Results indicate that given a 2°C global mean temperature increase it is expected that for 70–80% of the land surface maximum seasonal-mean temperatures will exceed historical extremes (as determined from the 95th percentile threshold value over the second half of the 20th Century) in at least half of all years, i.e. the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm. Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—will reach this point given the “committed” future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) and 50% of the land surface will reach it given a future global-mean temperature increase of between 0.8 and 0.95°C (1.6–1.75°C relative to the pre-industrial era). These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity, even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2°C target.  相似文献   

14.
Analysis of Basic Features of the Onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文
In this paper,a relatively systematic climatological research on the onset of the Asian tropical summer monsoon(ATSM)was carried out.Based on a unified index of the ATSM onset,the advance of the whole ATSM was newly made and then the view that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and the middle and southern Indo-China Peninsula was further documented,which was in the 26th pentad(about May 10),then over the South China Sea(SCS)in the 28th pentad.It seems that the ATSM onset over the two regions belongs to the different stages of the same monsoon system.Then,the onset mechanism of ATSM was further investigated by the comprehensive analysis on the land-sea thermodynamic contrast,intraseasonal oscillation,and so on,and the several key factors which influence the ATSM onset were put forward.Based on these results,a possible climatological schematic map that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean,the Indo-China Peninsula,and the SCS was also presented, namely seasonal evolution of the atmospheric circulation was the background of the monsoon onset;the enhancement and northward advance of the convections,the sensible heating and latent heating over the Indo-China Peninsula and its neighboring areas,the dramatic deepening of the India-Burma trough,and the westerly warm advection over the eastern Tibetan Plateau were the major driving forces of the summer monsoon onset,which made the meridional gradient of the temperature firstly reverse over this region and ascending motion develop.Then the tropical monsoon and precipitation rapidly developed and enhanced. The phase-lock of the 30-60-day and 10-20-day low frequency oscillations originated from different sources was another triggering factor for the summer monsoon onset.It was just the common effect of these factors that induced the ATSM earliest onset over this region.  相似文献   

15.
At Tromsø (69°N; 19°E), ionospheric data from 1952 onwards indicate that the mean altitude of the F2 layer is dropping by 4 km per decade on average. This effect is thought to be attributable to middle atmosphere cooling due to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane.  相似文献   

16.
In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO2 emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO2 emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO2 emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved.

Policy relevance

In signing the Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to the global 2°C target. Results from this article could be used to justify low-carbon development policies and negotiations. While many still doubt the feasibility of a low-carbon pathway to support the global 2°C target, the results suggest that such a pathway can be realistically achieved. This conclusion should increase confidence and guide the policy framework further to make possible China's low-carbon development. Related policies and measures, such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency, economic structure optimization, technology innovation, low-carbon investment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) development, should be further enhanced. Furthermore, China can play a larger role in the international negotiations process. In the global context, the 2°C target could be reaffirmed and a global regime on an emissions mitigation protocol could be framed with countries’ emissions target up to 2050.  相似文献   

17.
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18.
ＡＣｏｍｐａｒａｔｉｖｅＳｔｕｄｙｏｆｔｈｅＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＬａｙｅｒｓｂｅｌｏｗＦｉｒｓｔＬｉｆｔｉｎｇＣｏｎｄｅｎｓａｔｉｏｎＬｅｖｅｌｆｏｒＩｎｓｔａｎｔａｎｅｏｕｓＰｒｅ－ＭｏｎｓｏｏｎＴｈｕｎｄｅｒｓｔｏｒｍＯｃｕｒｅｎｃｅａｔＡｇａ...  相似文献   

19.
ＩｎｆｌｕｅｎｃｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＥｘｔｒａｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌＰａｃｉｆｉｃＳＳＴｏｎｔｈｅＰｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅＮｏｒｔｈＣｈｉｎａＲｅｇｉｏｎＧｅｎｇＱｕａｎｚｈｅｎ（耿全震），ＤｉｎｇＹｉｈｕｉ（丁一汇）ａｎｄＨｕａｎｇＣｈａｏｙｉｎｇ...  相似文献   

20.
The ordinary multidimensional reductive perturbation method is generalized so as to apply to the general case including the dissipative factor. With this the corresponding Cubic-Schrbdinger equation is deduced, and by the preliminary study of its solution, it shows that it is more admissible to consider atmospheric meso-scale systems as the nonlinear Cubic-Schrbdinger waves.With suitable boundary and initial conditions, the Cubic-Schrodinger equation is numerically integrated so as to investigate the possible dynamic mechanism as well as the impacts of the nonlinear action, turbulent friction and topogrphy to the formation of the LLJ. The results indicate that the downward transfer of the momentum and the effect of the surface friction are responsible for the concentration of the momentum in the layer between 850 and 700 hPa. The location of the horizontal concentration of momentum depends on the propagation of momentum, in the process the inertia-gravity internal wave is very important, whereas turbule  相似文献   

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