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1.
Predicting the Peak in World Oil Production 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regions, particularly that of the US, from which it was derived. A more careful application of the EIA model, using the same resource estimates, indicates that at best non-OPEC oil production can increase for less than two decades, and should begin to decline at the latest sometime between 2015 and 2020. OPEC at this point will completely control the world oil market and will need to meet increased demand as well as compensate for declining production of non-OPEC producers. OPEC could control the market even sooner than this, given its larger share of proven oil reserves, probable difficulties in transforming non-OPEC undiscovered reserves into proven reserves, and the converging interests of all oil producers as reserves are depleted. This has significant implications for the world economy and for US national security. 相似文献
2.
Mikael Höök Bengt Söderbergh Kristofer Jakobsson Kjell Aleklett 《Natural Resources Research》2009,18(1):39-56
The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over
50% of the world’s oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than half of the world’s ultimate reserves are found in
giants. Based on this, it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant
impact on the world oil supply. In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behavior, one must first understand
their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters,
such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behavior has been investigated
to better understand future behavior. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally led to high
depletion rates and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.
The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation
between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline.
Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve,
or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base. 相似文献
3.
Alfred J. Cavallo 《Natural Resources Research》2004,13(4):211-221
Following Hubberts successful prediction of the timing of US peak oil production, Hubberts model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using Hubberts methodology usually have failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions always will fail and that we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination of Hubberts approach indicates that the most important reasons for his success in the US were stable markets, the high growth rate of demand, ready availability of low cost imports, and a reasonable estimate of easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows that his model cannot predict ultimate oil reserves and that it should be considered an econometric model. Building on Hubberts vital insight, that cheap fossil fuel reserves are knowable and finite, one can state that for world peak oil production, political constraints should be much more important than resource constraints. 相似文献
4.
Natural Resources Research - The peak of world oil production, followed by an irreversible decline, will be a watershed in human history. The goal of this paper is to predict the world peak.... 相似文献
5.
6.
油棕是世界上单位面积产量最高的一种木本油料作物,有“世界油王”之称。它的产量和贸
易量比重在植物油料中居世界第一,经济效益巨大。本文从世界油棕的起源与地理扩散入手,对近
年来世界油棕的生产贸易现状作了分析,结果表明：油棕起源于非洲,扩散到亚非拉广大热带地
区,目前形成中西非、东南亚、中南美三大产区和印、中、欧盟等十大消费地的基本格局。在此基础
上,对油棕生产贸易的发展趋势作了预测,一是种植面积和油棕消费市场将会继续增长;二是新科
技助力油棕的增产;三是油棕的可持续利用必将进一步加强。 相似文献
7.
Danilo J. Santini 《Natural Resources Research》1998,7(2):101-121
This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak
production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications
on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin
America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production
will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S.
production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that
keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth
in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve
model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production
of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies
that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical
pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years
(of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and
world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and
oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be
disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory. 相似文献
8.
James J. MacKenzie 《Natural Resources Research》1998,7(2):97-100
Fossil fuels are finite and nonrenewable. In due course, they will become scarce and costly. Their role in powering modern economies is so vital as to warrant a review of ultimately recoverable reserves and of plausible future consumption patterns. Over the past 50 years, many oil companies, geologists, governments, and private corporations have performed scores of studies of Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) global oil. Taken together, the great majority of these studies reflect a consensus that EUR oil reserves lie within the range of 1800 to 2200 billion barrels. Given this range, a simple model is used to calculate that world oil production is likely to peak sometime between 2007 and 2019. The global transportation sector, almost totally dependent on oil, could be especially hard hit unless vehicles fueled by sources other than petroleum are developed and rapidly deployed. 相似文献
9.
James L. Coleman Jr. 《Natural Resources Research》1995,4(3):273-288
The American whaling industry rose from humble beginnings off Long island to become an international giant. In its peak year, 1846, 735 ships and 70,000 people served the industry. As whale stocks and reserves decreased, whalers were forced to go farther and farther from their New England home ports. Voyages became longer, and risks on required return-on-investment became higher. The easy money of Atlantic and Pacific whaling was no more: the only remaining profitable ventures were to Arctic and Antarctic waters. Many ships returned empty, if at all. in 1871, most of the Arctic whaling fleet was crushed by early winter ice and lost. This calamity, in conjunction with the long-term diminishing whale stocks, the diversion of investment capital to more profitable ventures, and the discovery, development, and refinement of abundant petroleum crude oil, struck the death blow to the American whaling industry. By 1890, only 200 whaling vessels were at work, and by 1971, no American commercial whaling ship sailed the world's oceans.It is apparent that no single event caused the final, rapid decline. However, a single calamity, in an already stressed industry, that was self-insured and commercially interlinked, precipitated the end. Today's American petroleum industry, although adopting some principles of the American whaling industry, also has embraced other activities such as work process reengineering and customer alliances, which may preempt, or postpone, a similar catastrophic demise. 相似文献
10.
非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位演变 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
21世纪以来,非洲已成为世界石油进口大国寻求来源地多元化、保障自身石油安全的战略高地,也成为我国的第二大石油来源地。考察非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位及演变,有利于系统把握非洲石油供给的优劣势,为优化我国对非石油合作战略提供依据。本文以国家为研究单元,综合运用箱线图和空间聚类分析法,创新份额和位序综合分析法,对比考察了... 相似文献
11.
世界石油探明储量分布特征与空间格局演化 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
石油探明储量是一个动态变化的过程,文章对1980年以来不同区域尺度,包括全球、各大区以及国家层面的石油探明储量变化、分布特征等进行分析,得出结论:(1)世界石油探明储量自1980年以来大致经历了4个阶段,呈现明显的阶梯状增长的态势,基本每十年出现一次储量跃升,并保持一段时间的平稳。储采比一直稳定在40年以上,呈现缓慢上升的趋势。(2)大区尺度的石油探明储量分布不均衡,且探明储量的变化趋势不同。中东一直是石油探明储量最大的地区,其次为中南美洲地区。中东、北美占世界比重先升后降。非洲和中南美洲稳步提升,亚太地区持续下滑。(3)国家层面的石油探明储量呈现明显的集中分布。储量前4的国家占世界储量的53.75%,储量超过10亿吨的国家在很大程度上主导着世界石油开发的基本格局。从各国演变来看,世界石油储量呈现出多极化的趋势,从中东、北美向中亚、俄罗斯和中南美洲等转移。 相似文献
12.
中国和美国海洋经济与海洋产业结构特征对比——基于海洋GDP中国超过美国的实证分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对比中美两国海洋经济总产值（海洋经济增加值）发现, 2011年开始,中国海洋经济总产值（海洋经济增加值）（2 849.73×108美元）,已超过美国海洋经济增加值（2 779.02×108美元）（实际GDP）。重点分析2005~2012年,中国海洋产业超过美国的演进过程,并以两国共同的6个海洋产业部门为例,分析了中国与美国海洋产业发展历程。为了体现中美两国海洋经差异的特征与规律性,应用标准差、变差系数、集中化指数（基尼系数）、锡尔系数等方法,分析了中、美两国在海洋经济总值（海洋经济增加值）、海洋产业与区域海洋经济的差异与特征。 相似文献
13.
The USGS has developed several mathematical models to forecast reserve growth of fields both in the United States (U.S.) and
the world. The models are based on historical reserve growth patterns of fields in the U.S. The patterns of past reserve growth
are extrapolated to forecast future reserve growth. Changes of individual field sizes through time are extremely variable,
therefore, the reserve growth models take on a statistical approach whereby volumetric changes for populations of fields are
used in the models. Field age serves as a measure of the field-development effort that is applied to promote reserve growth.
At the time of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000, a reserve growth model for discovered fields of the world was not
available. Reserve growth forecasts, therefore, were made based on a model of historical reserve growth of fields of the U.S.
To test the feasibility of such an application, reserve growth forecasts were made of 186 giant oil fields of the world (excluding
the U.S. and Canada). In addition, forecasts were made for these giant oil fields subdivided into those located in and outside
of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The model provided a reserve-growth forecast that closely matched
the actual reserve growth that occurred from 1981 through 1996 for the 186 fields as a whole, as well as for both OPEC and
non-OPEC subdivisions, despite the differences in reserves definition among the fields of the U.S. and the rest of the world. 相似文献
14.
越南石油生产和出口形势变化及其对中国的影响 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
越南石油产量快速上升,在2006年达到峰值后而迅速下降。为改变油品几乎全靠进口的状况,着手大力兴建炼厂。因而石油进出口形势将发生逆转。预计2013年后就可成为原油净进口国（进口量可达3—5千万吨）且将大量出口油品。此前越南是中国的原油进口源国和油品（特别是轻质油）的出口目的地。越南石油形势的重大变化将对中国和东亚石油格局产生一定的影响。 相似文献
15.
16.
This paper describes several factors which control the magnitude of Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratio, the necessity of preliminary analysis of them and the proper interpretation of this ratio, as it applies to different conditions and countries. It also describes the importance to characterize the ability of reserves to provide the increased oil production (or keeping its level stable) and consider it a main criterion of its quality and sufficiency. The deterioration in the quality of reserves because a definite point of the exploratory degree of the petroliferous basins and during the oil-field production period is a permanent factor, which has to be taken into account. All else aside it leads to the formal increase of the R/P ratio without an ability for production growth. The careful analysis of probable and possible reserves can help determine successful ways for replenishment of the proved reserves and increased oil production. 相似文献
17.
This article reviews the theoretical foundations for the concept of peak minerals; drawing on similarities and differences
with peak oil as modelled using Hubbert style curves. Whilst several studies have applied peak modelling to selected minerals,
discussion of the appropriateness of using Hubbert style curves in the minerals context remains largely unexplored. Our discussion
focuses on a comparison between oil and minerals, on the key variables: rates of discovery, estimates of ultimately recoverable
resources and demand and production trends. With respect to minerals, there are several obstacles which complicate the application
of Hubbert style curves to the prediction of future mineral production, including the lack of accurate discovery data, the
effect of uncertain reserve estimates, and varying ore quality and quantity. Another notable difference is that while oil
is often combusted during use, minerals are used to make metals which are inherently recyclable. Notwithstanding, by using
a range of estimates of resources and/or reserves, a period of time can be identified which indicates when a peak in minerals
production may occur. This information may then be used to plan for a transition from using a potentially constrained resource,
to using substitutes if available, or to reducing demand for that mineral in society. 相似文献
18.
石油开发对黄土高原地区生态环境的影响研究 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
陕北油田每年将排放上千吨废弃物,本文选取八项生态环境影响因素进行评价.研究结果为恢复和改善黄土高原油田的生态环境建设提供依据. 相似文献
19.
In a world of climate change and socio-economic development, oil is the strategic resource that is closely intertwined and interdependent. Tracing the evolution of petroleum resources flow is fundamental to understanding petroleum supply and demand, and can also serve as the basis for assessing CO2 emissions from petroleum products. This paper aims to provide a petroleum products flow accounting framework that divides petroleum flow into four phases, three flows, three libraries, and two processes, and summarizes the approach to measure and analyze petroleum resources flows. It takes China as an example for empirical research, and finds that: ① China’s petroleum production, consumption and import have significantly increased over the past two decades, and the combination of increasing demand and limited supply have created an urgent need for China to diversify its petroleum sources globally to ensure its oil security. ② Final consumption accounts for the use of most petroleum products and special attention should be paid to the losses in the petroleum refining process. ③ With the exception of crude oil, petroleum product flows among various sectors has changed greatly. Particularly, the flow of petroleum products into transport and residential consumption has trended upward significantly, whereas the flow to industry is trending downward. ④ CO2 emission data shows that CO2 emission amounts increased rapidly from 456Mt in 1993 to 1517Mt in 2013. Previously, the top three CO2 emitters were the industrial sector, the transport sector including the transport, storage and post segments, and the thermal power sector. Currently, the largest emitters are the transport sector, the industrial sector and the residential consumption sector. Finally, poorly demarcated system boundaries and incomplete databases and models constrain research on industry flows of petroleum resources for non-energy use. 相似文献
20.
2018年6月美国针对伊朗启动了史上最严厉的石油禁运政策,要求所有国家于11月停止从伊朗进口石油,否则相关国家和企业都将面临美国的经济制裁,并无意给予任何国家豁免权。当前,中国、日本、韩国、印度和欧盟等世界重要的石油进口国已经做出回应,除中国明确拒绝美国的单边制裁继续保持与伊朗的石油贸易外,其他主要石油进口国都大量削减从伊朗的石油进口。沙特阿拉伯等石油生产国也承诺通过石油增产来维护全球能源市场的稳定,以支持美国对伊朗的制裁。在经济全球化的大趋势下,美国对伊朗的石油禁运,势必引发全球能源市场的动荡,改变全球石油政治格局以及相关利益方的石油权益。这些方面会涉及到全球油价的波动、不同国家的石油安全与应对政策、世界能源贸易稳定与地缘政治格局的变动等。长期关注能源地缘政治的专家学者围绕美国对伊朗的石油禁运可能产生的影响发表观点,专家们认为美国此举是战略两难的困境,短期内对将会引起世界石油短缺及油价波动,甚至可能导致OPEC减产协议崩溃,改变世界主要进口国的进口规模以及来源结构,但对世界石油市场的长期影响有限。伊朗将寻求打折出售原油、替代港口出口以及多元化出口3条生存路径,目前最大的隐患是伊朗或将封锁霍尔木兹海峡,但是此举目前可能性不大。伊朗石油禁运具有长期性和复杂性,对中国既是机遇也是挑战,中国在“一带一路”倡议下与伊朗保持正常的石油贸易是双赢的选择,但需要谨慎对待由此引发的能源地缘政治的风险,提升能源安全应对的措施。期待各方观点对伊朗石油禁运引发的能源地缘政治格局以及中国的能源安全的解析,能够为相关政策制定者提供理论借鉴。 相似文献