共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Shale-Gas Assessment: Comparison of Gas-In-Place Versus Performance-Based Approaches 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
H. Stueck D. Houseknecht D. Franke D. Gautier A. Bahr S. Ladage 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(3):315-329
The recent interest in exploration for shale gas increases the demand for a reliable, compatible resource assessment. Many different assessment methods are used, commonly depending on types and quantity of data available, which may lead to significantly divergent results for the same shale-gas play. This study compares results obtained using performance-based and gas-in-place methodologies to assess a well-developed and active shale-gas play (Woodford Shale, Arkoma Basin, USA) and two untested, hypothetical shale-gas plays (Shublik and Brookian, Alaska North Slope, USA). Results show that the two assessment methods produce comparable results when assessment units are identically defined and similar geological constraints are used as input parameters. Inherent uncertainties are associated with both assessment methods, and these are related to aspects of shale-gas production that are not well understood. The performance-based method relies on decline trend analysis to generate distributions of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), and uncertainty increases in cases of short production history. The gas-in-place method requires the application of a recovery factor to estimate technically recoverable resources, and both absolute values of recovery factors and their spatial variability are poorly documented, and therefore a source of uncertainty. 相似文献
2.
Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources
at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes
based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures
is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an
appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and
levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations.
The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume.
The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type
gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable
volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency
distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.
相似文献
| Emil D. AttanasiEmail: |
3.
A Methodology for the Assessment of Unconventional (Continuous) Resources with an Application to the Greater Natural Buttes Gas Field,Utah 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Greater Natural Buttes tight natural gas field is an unconventional (continuous) accumulation in the Uinta Basin, Utah,
that began production in the early 1950s from the Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Group. Three years later, production was extended
to the Eocene Wasatch Formation. With the exclusion of 1100 non-productive (“dry”) wells, we estimate that the final recovery
from the 2500 producing wells existing in 2007 will be about 1.7 trillion standard cubic feet (TSCF) (48.2 billion cubic meters
(BCM)). The use of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well is common in assessments of unconventional resources, and it
is one of the main sources of information to forecast undiscovered resources. Each calculated recovery value has an associated
drainage area that generally varies from well to well and that can be mathematically subdivided into elemental subareas of
constant size and shape called cells. Recovery per 5-acre cells at Greater Natural Buttes shows spatial correlation; hence,
statistical approaches that ignore this correlation when inferring EUR values for untested cells do not take full advantage
of all the information contained in the data. More critically, resulting models do not match the style of spatial EUR fluctuations
observed in nature. This study takes a new approach by applying spatial statistics to model geographical variation of cell
EUR taking into account spatial correlation and the influence of fractures. We applied sequential indicator simulation to
model non-productive cells, while spatial mapping of cell EUR was obtained by applying sequential Gaussian simulation to provide
multiple versions of reality (realizations) having equal chances of being the correct model. For each realization, summation
of EUR in cells not drained by the existing wells allowed preparation of a stochastic prediction of undiscovered resources,
which range between 2.6 and 3.4 TSCF (73.6 and 96.3 BCM) with a mean of 2.9 TSCF (82.1 BCM) for Greater Natural Buttes. A
second approach illustrates the application of multiple-point simulation to assess a hypothetical frontier area for which
there is no production information but which is regarded as being similar to Greater Natural Buttes. 相似文献
4.
Conventional oil and gas productions in Louisiana has been in decline for four decades, but in recent years, new technology
and capital investment have opened up a significant new resource play in the Haynesville shale, reversing Louisiana’s gas
production decline. The need for long-term forecasting has become more important for state planning and for facilitating efficient
regulatory development and incentive programs, as the largest oil and gas fields diminish in productivity and the promise
of unconventional resources are realized. The purpose of this article is to present a hydrocarbon production forecast for
Louisiana using disaggregate resource classes and a transparent analytic framework. A field-level evaluation is employed for
producing fields categorized by primary product, resource category, geographic area, and production class. Undiscovered fields
are classified according to conventional and unconventional categories and are modeled using a probabilistic and scenario-based
forecast. The analytic framework is described along with a discussion of the model results and limitations of the analysis.
Louisiana is in the early stages of transitioning to a primarily gas-producing state, and the manner in which the Haynesville
shale develops will play a critical role in deliverability and economic prospects in the future. 相似文献
5.
Efstathios E. Michaelides 《Natural Resources Research》2017,26(2):161-175
A critical examination of Hubbert’s model proves that it does not account for several factors that have significantly influenced the production of petroleum and other fossil fuels. The effect of these factors comes into the price of the fossil fuels, and the latter has a significant influence on the demand and rate of production of energy resources as well as on the long-term rate of production growth at both the regional and global levels. Based on several observations of historical production data, a simple mathematical model is constructed and presented in this paper for the lifetime of a fossil fuel resource. The recent data of global petroleum and natural gas production show that a very important period in the life of energy resources is a period when the demand of these resources increases almost linearly. The linear part of the production curve makes the entire lifetime production of the resource asymmetric. Information on the total available quantity of a resource at any time and of the average slope during this linear period yields an estimate of the timescale, T 2, when peak production is reached and depletion follows. The total available quantity of the energy resource is laden with significant uncertainty, which propagates in the estimates of the timescale of the peak production in any resource model. The time asymmetry of the current model leads to a delay of the timescale, when the onset of the resource production commences (e.g., peak oil). However, the rate of the resource production decline is significantly higher than that predicted by other models that use a symmetrical curve-fitting method. 相似文献
6.
资源约束下的三元函数区域增长模式 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
区域经济动力学的核心问题是区域增长,本文将资源要素引进生产函数,建立了资源约束下的三元区域增长模式,研究揭示:(1)模式不仅可以较好地模拟区域发展的不同阶段,还可以较客观地描写、预测区域发展与环境资源等区域因素的关系;(2)在区域经济(区域社会生产)这个经济“大木桶”里,起到主要约束作用的因素是资源,而不是通常备受关注的资金或管理因素;(3)资源指数越小越有利于区域资本的积累和社会生产总量的增加。 相似文献
7.
Robert A. Crovelli 《Natural Resources Research》1992,1(2):153-162
A geostochastic system called FASPF was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for their 1989 assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources in the United States. FASPF is a fast appraisal system for petroleum play analysis using a field-size geological model and an analytic probabilistic methodology. The geological model is a particular type of probability model whereby the volumes of oil and gas accumulations are modeled as statistical distributions in the form of probability histograms, and the risk structure is bilevel (play and accumulation) in terms of conditional probability. The probabilistic methodology is an analytic method derived from probability theory rather than Monte Carlo simulation. The resource estimates of crude oil and natural gas are calculated and expressed in terms of probability distributions. The probabilistic methodology developed by the author is explained.The analytic system resulted in a probabilistic methodology for play analysis, subplay analysis, economic analysis, and aggregation analysis. Subplay analysis included the estimation of petroleum resources on non-Federal offshore areas. Economic analysis involved the truncation of the field size with a minimum economic cutoff value. Aggregation analysis was needed to aggregate individual play and subplay estimates of oil and gas, respectively, at the provincial, regional, and national levels. 相似文献
8.
Economic‐Development Stakeholder Perspectives on Boomtown Dynamics in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas 
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下载免费PDF全文 Unconventional oil and gas production in the United States reversed a decades‐old trend of rising oil imports, provided an argument for lifting the U.S. crude oil export ban and motivated the development of domestic natural gas export facilities. But the most visible impact of unconventional‐hydrocarbon extraction is the creation of boomtowns in rural regions. Despite widespread media coverage, scholarly analysis of boomtowns is restricted to regional econometric studies with little attention to how economic stakeholders understand and respond to booming economies. Here we analyze interviews with key economic stakeholders in the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. Respondents consider their community's economic success relative to the price of oil and indicate concerns about the deterioration of roads, high housing demand, and skyrocketing wages. We also re‐examine John Gilmore's foundational work on boomtowns in the 1970s in the context of contemporary unconventional extraction. 相似文献
9.
中国区域开发强度与资源环境水平的耦合关系演化 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
揭示区域开发强度与资源环境水平互动演化的一般规律,通过定量分析1995-2009年中国区域开发强度与资源环境水平的耦合关系,得到以下结论:1995年以来中国区域开发强度不断增长,资源环境水平小幅波动下降。中国区域开发强度与资源环境水平的耦合度呈现出逐年增大趋势,表明二者的耦合程度不断提高;同期中国区域开发强度不断增长对资源环境水平演变产生明显的"胁迫"影响,但胁迫程度逐渐减小。区域开发效率提升、资源环境政策和制度不断完善、经济结构优化、单位能耗GDP产出提高以及环保投入增加等因素对胁迫程度减小具有推动作用,其中区域开发效率提升是主要影响因素。 相似文献
10.
Julian Hagenauer Marco Helbich 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(10):2026-2042
Spatial sciences are confronted with increasing amounts of high-dimensional data. These data commonly exhibit spatial and temporal dimensions. To explore, extract, and generalize inherent patterns in large spatiotemporal data sets, clustering algorithms are indispensable. These clustering algorithms must account for the distinct special properties of space and time to outline meaningful clusters in such data sets. Therefore, this research develops a hierarchical method based on self-organizing maps. The hierarchical architecture permits independent modeling of spatial and temporal dependence. To exemplify the utility of the method, this research uses an artificial data set and a socio-economic data set of the Ostregion, Austria, from the years 1961 to 2001. The results for the artificial data set demonstrate that the proposed method produces meaningful clusters that cannot be achieved when disregarding differences in spatial and temporal dependence. The results for the socio-economic data set show that the proposed method is an effective and powerful tool for analyzing spatiotemporal patterns in a regional context. 相似文献
11.
Evaluation of tourism resources is necessary for tourism regionalization and plan-ning and for the development of tourism destinations.Furthermore,the scientific evaluation of the status of existing tourism resources is important for optimally combining and rationally developing regional tourism resources.In this study,a conceptual model for estimating the ontological value of tourism resources was developed and an evaluation indicator system was designed for the ontological value.On the basis of the quantitative and spatial characteristics of regional tourism resources,six indicators were constructed:quantitative density,richness,dominance,combination,aggregation,and accessibility.Furthermore,spatial differentiation characteristics of the ontological value indicators of county-level tourism resources on Hainan Island were analyzed,and the ontological value of the tourism resources was comprehen-sively evaluated and ranked by using a fuzzy clustering evaluation method.Finally,the evaluation results were verified on the basis of the quantity,quality,and accessibility of re-gional tourism resources by using an expert scoring method.The results showed that the test results were consistent with the inferences drawn from the ontological value,indicating that the evaluation indicator system is scientific and reliable and that it is an effective alternative to existing evaluation indexes of regional tourism resources,which are inconsistent.The fuzzy clustering evaluation method overcomes the subjectivity in the evaluation process and is practical for the quantitative evaluation of regional tourism resources.The evaluation indicator system for regional tourism resources designed in this study can provide a reference for the evaluation of the tourism resource development value on a regional scale,and the evaluation results can facilitate informed policymaking for the rational development of regional tourism resources. 相似文献
12.
Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in recent years
and promise to dramatically change the course of future domestic energy development. The Haynesville Shale is the deepest,
hottest, and highest pressured shale among the big four plays in the U.S. with drilling and completion cost ranging between
7 and7 and 10 million per well. The average Haynesville well has an initial production rate of 10 MMcfd and declines rapidly,
producing 80% of its expected recovery during the first 2 years of production. The purpose of this article is to describe
the productivity characteristics of Haynesville wells, project future production from the inventory of active wells, and assess
production potential based on drilling scenarios. We offer statistical analysis of the wells drilled to date and construct
type profiles to characterize the play. We estimate that the current inventory of Haynesville wells will produce 3 Tcf over
their lifecycles, and within the next 3 years, cumulative build-out in the region will range between 3 and 9 Tcf. To maintain
current gas production levels in the state, we estimate that about 550 shale gas wells per year will need to be brought online
over the next 3 years. 相似文献
13.
辽中地区矿业城市是我国重要的能源生产和重工业基地,研究其生态承载力状况并预测其发展趋势,有利于区域经济、生态协调发展。基于资源保障率、环境承载力和社会经济增长相统一的原则,运用系统动力学方法建立了辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力评价模型,评价了1997-2006年研究区生态承载力状况,预测了2006-2020年研究区生态承载力变化趋势。结果表明：1997-2006年,辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力总体处于超载状态,但发展趋势差别显著。鞍山生态承载力指数从1.686下降到1.301,年均下降2.56%,但仍处于超载状态;抚顺生态承载力指数从1.169下降到0.909,年均下降2.49%,生态承载力从超载变为盈余;本溪生态承载力指数从1.070上升到1.249,年均上升1.56%,超载程度不断加大。2006-2020年,辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力总体上处于超载程度加大的趋势,鞍山、抚顺和本溪生态承载力指数年均增长率分别达到0.89%、1.56%和1.81%。作为矿业城市,鞍山、抚顺和本溪需要优先保障水资源和能源的供需平衡,改善水环境质量,从而达到生态承载力的提高。 相似文献
14.
Geologic resource assessments describe the location, general characteristics, and estimated volumes of resources, whether in situ or technically recoverable. Such compilations are only an initial step in economic resource evaluation. This paper identifies, by examples from the Illinois and Appalachian basins, the salient features of a geologic assessment that assure its usefulness to downstream economic analysis. Assessments should be in sufficient detail to allocate resources to production units (mines or wells). Coal assessments should include the spatial distribution of coal bed characteristics and the ability to allocate parts of the resource to specific mining technologies. For coal bed gas assessment, the production well recoveries and well deliverability characteristics must be preserved and the risk structure should be specified so dryholes and noncommercial well costs are recovered by commercially successful wells. 相似文献
15.
The issue of China’s energy supply security is not only the key problem which affects China’s rapid and sustainable development in the 21st century, but also the one which international attention focuses on. Based on the notable characteristic of spatial imbalance between energy production and consumption in China, this paper takes the evolution of China’s primary energy resources development(excluding hydropower) from 1949 to 2007 as the study object, with the aim to sum up the evolutive characteristics and laws of China’s energy resources development in the past nearly 60 years. Then, based on comprehensive considerations of coal’s, oil’s and natural gas’s basic reserves, qualities, geological conditions, production status, and ecological service function of every province, this paper adopts development potential index (DP)to evaluate the development potential of every province’s energy resources, and divide them into different ranks. Conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) Generally speaking, China’s gross energy production was increasing in waves from 1949 to 2007. From the viewpoint of spatial patterns, China’s energy resources development has shown a characteristic of “concentrating to the north and central areas, and evolving from linear-shaped to “T-shaped” pattern gradually since 1949. (2) The structure evolution of China’s energy resources development in general has shown a trend of “coal proportion is dominant but decreasing, while oil and gas proportions are increasing” since 1949. (3) At the provincial scale, China’s energy resources development potential could be divided into large, sub-large, general and small ranks, four in all. In the future, the spatial pattern of China’s energy production will evolve from “T-shaped” to “Π-shaped pattern”. These conclusions will help to clarify the temporal and spatial characteristics and laws of China’s energy resources development, and will be beneficial for China to design scientific and rational energy development strategies and plans, coordinate spatial imbalance of energy production and consumption, ensure national energy supply, avoid energy resources waste and disorderly development, and promote regional sustainable development under the globalization background with changeful international energy market. 相似文献
16.
本文通过分析资源规制对经济发展的作用机理,厘清资源规制的影响机制,并基于全国31个省(区、市)2000–2009年的省级面板数据,运用LR检验和Hausman检验方法来选择模型估计的形式。检验结果显示,固定效应模型均比OLS混合模型和随机效应模型更有效。运用该模型构建了资源规制与区域经济总量和质量的固定效应回归模型,检验资源规制对经济发展的有效性。面板数据模型的回归结果表明:(1)资源规制对于调控区域经济发展是有效的;(2)资源规制对区域经济规模起抑制作用,资源规制强度每增加1个单位,地区生产总值将减少246亿元;(3)资源规制对于区域发展质量起促进作用,资源规制强度每增加1个单位,地区经济发展质量指数将提高0.022个单位。研究结果支持用资源规制来调控区域经济规模、转变经济发展方式的思路,验证了资源规制的有效性。 相似文献
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长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用1961-2011 年长江源区流域水文、气象观测数据和国家气候中心2009 年11 月发布的中国地区气候变化预估数据集(2.0 版本), 通过分析长江源区流量的演变规律和揭示气候归因, 预测了未来流量可能的演变趋势。研究表明:近51 年来长江源区地表水资源总体呈增加趋势, 特别是2004 年后增加趋势显著, 并具有9a、22a 的准周期;青藏高原加热场增强, 高原季风进入强盛期, 流域降水量显著增加, 加之气候变化导致冰川融水增多, 是引起长江源区地表水资源增加的主要气候归因;根据全球气候模式预测, 在SRESA1B气候变化情景下, 未来20年长江源区地表水资源仍有可能以增加为主。 相似文献
20.
采用GIS/RS的方法,以衡阳盆地为研究对象,构建由年降水量,少雨期干旱指数,坡度指数,土壤蓄水能力指数,植被覆盖指数,土地利用指数,水源可获得性指数和人类活动指数8个具体指标组成的基于GIS/RS方法的水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,对衡阳盆地农村水资源脆弱性进行定量评价。结果表明,衡阳盆地农村水资源系统脆弱度的空间分布总体表现为“南北低、中间高”的分布态势,北部的衡阳县、西部的祁东县和中部的衡南县是全区水资源脆弱性最高区域,而南部的常宁、耒阳和东北的衡东县是全区水资源脆弱性低值区。基于GIS/RS的水资源脆弱性评价方法与传统研究方法所得结果具有较好的相似性,但是,相对于传统的评价方法,GIS方法的评价结果更为细致和精确。 相似文献