River suspended sediment load prediction based on river discharge information: application of newly developed data mining models     

Sinan Q. Salih  Ahmad Sharafati  Khabat Khosravi  Hossam Faris  Ozgur Kisi  Hai Tao 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(4):624-637

ABSTRACT

Suspended sediment load (SSL) is one of the essential hydrological processes that affects river engineering sustainability. Sediment has a major influence on the operation of dams and reservoir capacity. This investigation is aimed at exploring a new version of machine learning models (i.e. data mining), including M5P, attribute selected classifier (AS M5P), M5Rule (M5R), and K Star (KS) models for SSL prediction at the Trenton meteorological station on the Delaware River, USA. Different input scenarios were examined based on the river flow discharge and sediment load database. The performance of the applied data mining models was evaluated using various statistical metrics and graphical presentation. Among the applied data mining models, the M5P model gave a superior prediction result. The current and one-day lead time river flow and sediment load were the influential predictors for one-day-ahead SSL prediction. Overall, the applied data mining models achieved excellent predictions of the SSL process.  相似文献   

Comparative application of two mathematical models to predict sedimentation in Yermasoyia Reservoir,Cyprus     

V. Hrissanthou 《水文研究》2006,20(18):3939-3952

The Yermasoyia Reservoir is located northeast of the town of Limassol, Cyprus. The storage capacity of the reservoir is 13·6 × 10⁶ m³. The basin area of the Yermasoyia River, which feeds the reservoir, totals 122·5 km². This study aims to estimate the mean annual deposition amount in the reservoir, which originates from the corresponding basin. For the estimate of the mean annual sediment inflow into the reservoir, two mathematical models are used alternatively. Each model consists of three submodels: a rainfall‐runoff submodel, a soil erosion submodel and a sediment transport submodel for streams. In the first model, the potential evapotranspiration is estimated for the rainfall‐runoff submodel, and the soil erosion submodel of Schmidt and the sediment transport submodel of Yang are used. In the second model, the actual evapotranspiration is estimated for the rainfall‐runoff submodel, and the soil erosion submodel of Poesen and the sediment transport submodel of Van Rijn are used. The deposition amount in the reservoir is estimated by means of the diagram of Brune, which delivers the trap efficiency of the reservoir. Daily rainfall data from three rainfall stations, and daily values of air temperature, relative air humidity and sunlight hours from a meteorological station for four years (1986–89) were available. The computed annual runoff volumes and mean annual soil erosion rate are compared with the respective measurement data. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Application of newly developed ensemble machine learning models for daily suspended sediment load prediction and related uncertainty analysis     

Ahmad Sharafati  Seyed Babak Haji Seyed Asadollah  Davide Motta 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(12):2022-2042

ABSTRACT

Ensemble machine learning models have been widely used in hydro-systems modeling as robust prediction tools that combine multiple decision trees. In this study, three newly developed ensemble machine learning models, namely gradient boost regression (GBR), AdaBoost regression (ABR) and random forest regression (RFR) are proposed for prediction of suspended sediment load (SSL), and their prediction performance and related uncertainty are assessed. The SSL of the Mississippi River, which is one of the major world rivers and is significantly affected by sedimentation, is predicted based on daily values of river discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC). Based on performance metrics and visualization, the RFR model shows a slight lead in prediction performance. The uncertainty analysis also indicates that the input variable combination has more impact on the obtained predictions than the model structure selection.  相似文献   

Characterization of suspended sediment in Meltwater from Glaciers of Garhwal Himalaya          下载免费PDF全文

Deepak Srivastava  Amit Kumar  Akshaya Verma  Siddharth Swaroop 《水文研究》2014,28(3):969-979

Glacierised basins are significant sources of sediments generated by glacial retreat. Estimation of suspended sediment transfer from glacierised basins is very important in reservoir planning for hydropower projects in Himalaya. The present study indicates that storage and release of sediment in proglacial streams may categorise the pattern of suspended sediment transfer from these basins. Assessment of suspended sediment concentration (SSC), suspended sediment load (SSL) and yield has been undertaken for Dunagiri Glacier basin located in Garhwal Himalaya (30^o33'20”N, 79^o53'36”E), and its results are compared with the Gangotri and Dokriani glaciers sharing close proximity. Out of the total drainage basin area, about 14.3 % of the area is glacierised. Data were collected for five ablation seasons (1984–1989, barring 1986). The mean daily SSCs for July, August and September were 333.9, 286.0 and 147.15 mg/l, respectively, indicating highest concentration of mean daily suspended sediment in July followed by August. SSL trends were estimated to be 93.0, 57.0 and 21.3 tonnes. About 59% of the total SSL of the melt period was transported during the months of August and September. Sediment yield for the study basin was computed to be 296.3 t km^?2 yr ^?1. It is observed that the cumulative proportion of SSC precedes the discharge throughout the melt season except in the year 1987. Release of SSL in terms of total load is less in the early part of melt season than in the later stage as compared to that of discharge. Diurnal variations in SSC reach their maximum at 2400 h, and therefore, SSC was found to be high during night (2000–0400 h). There was a good relationship between SSC and SSL with discharge for the ablation seasons (1988 and 1989). Mean monthly SSC and mean monthly SSL provide a good exponentional relationship with mean monthly temperature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimating sediment deposition volume in a reservoir using the physiographic soil erosion-deposition model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ching-Hsien WU  Ching-Nuo CHEN  Chih-Heng TSAI  Chang-Tai TSAI 《国际泥沙研究》2012,27(3):362-377

A traditional way to estimate the amount of sediment deposition in a reservoir is simply based on the variation in the elevation measurements made at different times.In the present study,a physiographic soil erosion-deposition(PSED) model is applied to.Tseng-Wen reservoir watershed to compute the discharge and sediment concentration into the reservoir,and the deposition volume.The PSED model is verified using three storm events and then compared to the historic data recorded at the hydrological stations in the reservoir watershed,which shows close agreement between the simulated and recorded values of the flow discharge into the reservoir and the corresponding sediment yield. The numerical simulation was also conducted for all rainfall events from 1996 to 2001 to estimate the annual sediment deposition volume in the reservoir.Similarly,the simulated result was compared to that obtained from the cross-section elevation measurement.It is found that some measured data points had large uncertainty or were questionable.On the contrary,the model results and the measured data that renders the model credible.Therefore,regardless of the estimation for the flow discharge into the reservoir induced by a single rainfall event,the sediment yield,or the sediment deposition,the PSED model has successfully demonstrated its ability.  相似文献   

A data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach to understanding dynamic sediment transmission through Wyresdale Park Reservoir,Lancashire, UK     

L. E. Price  P. Goodwill  P. C. Young  J. S. Rowan 《水文研究》2000,14(1):63-78

This paper outlines the application of a new data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling methodology to the characterization of the sediment transmission dynamics in a small upland reservoir, Wyresdale Park, Lancashire. The DBM modelling strategy exploits advanced statistical procedures to infer the dynamic model structure and its associated parameters directly from the instrumented data, producing a parametrically efficient, continuous time, transfer function model which relates suspended sediment load at the reservoir inflow to the outflow at the event scale. The associated differential equation model parameters have physical attributes which can be interpreted in terms of sediment transmission processes and associated reservoir trap efficiency. Sedigraph analysis suggests that wind‐induced resuspension episodically supplies an additional load to the reservoir outlet. The stochastic nature of the DBM model makes it ideal for evaluating the effects of uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) for discharge and sediment transmission. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessment of sediment yield estimations for large watershed areas: a case study for the Seyhan,Demirköprü and Hirfanlı reservoirs in Turkey     

M. Ali Kokpinar  A. Burcu Altan-Sakarya  S. Yurdagul Kumcu  Mustafa Gogus 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2189-2203

Abstract

Analyses of data from reservoir surveys and sediment rating curves are compared to predict sediment yield in three large reservoir watershed areas in Turkey. Sediment yield data were derived from reservoir sedimentation rates and suspended sediment measurements at gauging stations. The survey data were analysed to provide the volume estimates of sediment, the time-averaged sediment deposition rates, the long-term average annual loss rates in the reservoir storage capacity, and the long-term sediment yield of the corresponding watershed areas. Four regression methods, including linear and nonlinear cases, were applied to rating curves obtained from gauging stations. Application of the efficiency test to a power function form of a rating curve with nonlinear regression yielded the highest efficiency values. Based on the analysis of the sediment rating curves, sediment load fluxes were calculated by using average daily discharge data at each gauging station. Comparison of these two sediment yield values for each reservoir showed that the sediment yields from the suspended sediment measurements, SY_GS, are 0.99 to 3.54 times less than those obtained from the reservoir surveys, SY_RS. The results from the reservoir surveys indicate that all three reservoirs investigated have lost significant storage capacity due to high sedimentation rates.  相似文献   

Modélisation pluie–débit journalière par des modèles conceptuels et ȁboîte noireȁ; test d’un modèle neuroflou / Daily rainfall–runoff modelling using conceptual and black box models; testing a neuro-fuzzy model     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Abstract Four rainfall–runoff models were applied on a daily time step and tested in the Cheffia basin, situated in the northeast of Algeria. The models belong to two categories: conceptual models–the GR3j model and the CREC model with eight parameters, and ?black box? models–the ARMAX model and a neuro-fuzzy model, which combines neural structure and fuzzy logic. The models were compared over two periods, one dry and the other wet. This comparison allowed a better model for the rainfall–runoff process to be proposed, on a daily time step, by combining the conceptual approach with a neuro-fuzzy system.  相似文献   

Applicability of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation for prediction of sediment yield in Khanmirza watershed,Iran     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):1068-1075

Abstract

The present study aims to estimate the sediment yield due to storm rainfall and runoff at the outlet of the Khanmirza watershed (395 km²) located in western Iran. The estimation was made for six storm events using the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE). All the inputs required for the application of the model were determined through runoff and sediment concentration monitoring at the time of storm events, and field surveys in the study area. The applicability of the model to the study area was then evaluated by comparison of its estimates with those calculated using the measured sediment data. The results of the study demonstrated the efficiency of the MUSLE in estimating storm-associated sediment yield except one storm event in the study area with a high level of agreement and non-significant differences between mean estimated and measured values in the study storm events.  相似文献   

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of runoff and sediment yield in a small agricultural watershed with KINEROS2 / Analyse d'incertitude et de sensibilité des simulations d'écoulement et de transport solide de KINEROS2 dans un petit bassin versant agricole     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)

Abstract

Using the Monte Carlo (MC) method, this paper derives arithmetic and geometric means and associated variances of the net capillary drive parameter, G, that appears in the Parlange infiltration model, as a function of soil texture and antecedent soil moisture content. Approximate expressions for the arithmetic and geometric statistics of G are also obtained, which compare favourably with MC generated ones. This paper also applies the MC method to evaluate parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty of the distributed runoff and erosion model KINEROS2 in a small experimental watershed. The MC simulations of flow and sediment related variables show that those parameters which impart the greatest uncertainty to KINEROS2 model outputs are not necessarily the most sensitive ones. Soil hydraulic conductivity and wetting front net capillary drive, followed by initial effective relative saturation, dominated uncertainties of flow and sediment discharge model outputs at the watershed outlet. Model predictive uncertainty measured by the coefficient of variation decreased with rainfall intensity, thus implying improved model reliability for larger rainfall events. The antecedent relative saturation was the most sensitive parameter in all but the peak arrival times, followed by the overland plane roughness coefficient. Among the sediment related parameters, the median particle size and hydraulic erosion parameters dominated sediment model output uncertainty and sensitivity. Effect of rain splash erosion coefficient was negligible. Comparison of medians from MC simulations and simulations by direct substitution of average parameters with observed flow rates and sediment discharges indicates that KINEROS2 can be applied to ungauged watersheds and still produce runoff and sediment yield predictions within order of magnitude of accuracy.  相似文献   

Approche régionale pour l’estimation des distributions ponctuelles des pluies journalières dans le Languedoc-Roussillon (France) / Regional approach for the estimation of low-frequency distribution of daily rainfall in the Languedoc-Roussillon region,France     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)

Abstract

Abstract This paper aims to show the benefit of a regional approach for the estimation of rare daily rainfall. The studied region is Languedoc-Roussillon (south of France), where recent exceptional storms necessitate the revision of the statistical distributions, particularly their asymptotic tails over extreme values. The example of a large single-site time series of maximum daily rainfall at Marseille (1864–2002), very close to the studied region, shows a hyper-exponential behaviour for extreme events. At the regional scale, the homogenization process of daily maximum rainfall has been performed by considering that the coefficients of variation of the yearly maximum daily rainfall are stationary over the study zone. Two regional sample studies have been carried out on 15 and 23 gauges, randomly distributed in space, and a similar distribution could be fitted to both samples. As in the case of Marseille, the regional distribution shows a hyper-exponential asymptotic behaviour at the extreme values. The obtained regional distribution provides a systematic method for computation of rare daily rainfall that may be applied in every part of the studied region and, when compared with previous estimations, leads to a significant increase in the depth of rare rainfall.  相似文献   

Modelling streamflow trends for a watershed with limited data: case of the Litani basin,Lebanon     

Hamzeh H. Ramadan 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1516-1529

Abstract

Streamflow variability in the Upper and Lower Litani basin, Lebanon was modelled as there is a lack of long-term measured runoff data. To simulate runoff and streamflow, daily rainfall was derived using a stochastic rainfall generation model and monthly rainfall data. Two distinct synthetic rainfall models were developed based on a two-part probabilistic distribution approach. The rainfall occurrence was described by a Markov chain process, while the rainfall distribution on wet days was represented by two different distributions (i.e. gamma and mixed exponential distributions). Both distributions yielded similar results. The rainfall data were then processed using water balance and routing models to generate daily and monthly streamflow. Compared with measured data, the model results were generally reasonable (mean errors ranging from 0.1 to 0.8?m³/s at select locations). Finally, the simulated monthly streamflow data were used to investigate discharge trends in the Litani basin during the 20th century using the Mann-Kendall and Sen slope nonparametric trend detection methods. A significant drying trend of the basin was detected, reaching a streamflow reduction of 0.8 and 0.7 m³/s per decade in January for the Upper and Lower basin, respectively.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Ramadan, H.H., Beighley, R.E., and Ramamurthy, A.S., 2012. Modelling streamflow trends for a watershed with limited data: case of the Litani basin, Lebanon. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1516–1529.  相似文献   

Laboratory experiments of sediment transport from bare soil with a rill     

Hafzullah Aksoy  N. Erdem Unal  Sevket Cokgor  Abdullah Gedikli  Kaan Koca 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1505-1518

Abstract

Mathematical models developed for quantification of sediment transport in hydrological watersheds require data collected through field or laboratory experiments, but these are still very rare in the literature. This study aims to collect such data at the laboratory scale. To this end, a rainfall simulator equipped with nozzles to spray rainfall was constructed, together with an erosion flume that can be given longitudinal and lateral slopes. Eighty experiments were performed, considering microtopographical features by pre-forming a rill on the soil surface before the start of each experiment. Medium and fine sands were used as soil, and four rainfall intensities (45, 65, 85 and 105 mm h^-1) were applied in the experiments. Rainfall characteristics such as uniformity, granulometry, drop velocity and kinetic energy were evaluated; flow and sediment discharge data were collected and analysed. The analysis shows that the sediment transport rate is directly proportional to rainfall intensity and slope. In contrast, the volumetric sediment concentration stays constant and does not change with rainfall intensity unless the slope changes. These conclusions are restricted to the conditions of experiments performed under rainfall intensities between and 105 mm h^-1 for medium and fine sands in a 136-cm-wide, 650-cm-long and 17-cm-deep erosion flume with longitudinal and lateral slopes varying between 5 and 20%.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor G. Mahé

Citation Aksoy, H., Unal, N.E., Cokgor, S., Gedikli, A., Yoon, J., Koca, K., Inci, S.B., Eris, E., and Pak, G., 2013. Laboratory experiments of sediment transport from bare soil with a rill. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1505–1518.  相似文献   

Optimization of cumulative trapped sediment curve for an arid zone reservoir: Foum El Kherza (Biskra,Algeria)     

F.Z. Tebbi  H. Dridi  G.L. Morris 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1368-1377

Abstract

Reservoir silting is one of the principal problems affecting the performance of dams in Algeria from the standpoint of reservoir capacity for storage. Foum El Kherza Reservoir (also known as Foum El Gherza), near Biskra Town, Algeria, is subject to dredging operations with the intent of recovering 70% of its initial storage capacity of 47 hm³ (million cubic metres). The forecasting of sediment volume trapped in the reservoir is essential to plan the future use of this resource and to sustain irrigation for the palm groves characteristic of the region. However, there are currently no sediment data, nor a sediment rating curve, for predicting sediment inflow based on hydrological data. This paper describes the optimization of a cumulative trapped sediment curve for Foum El Kherza Reservoir based on 44 years of daily inflows, by using a spreadsheet optimization tool, Microsoft Excel® Solver to calibrate the cumulative sediment load against the cumulative sediment inflow as documented by eight bathymetric surveys since the dam construction.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Tebbi, F.Z., Dridi, H., and Morris, G.L., 2012. Optimization of cumulative trapped sediment curve for an arid zone reservoir: Foum El Kherza (Biskra, Algeria). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1368–1377.  相似文献   

Hydrometeorological assessments and suspended sediment delivery from a central Himalayan glacier in the upper Ganga basin     

Amit Kumar  Akshaya Verma  Anupam Anand Gokhale  Rakesh Bhambri  Anshuman Misra  Shipika Sundriyal  Dwarika Prasad Dobhal  Naval Kishore 《国际泥沙研究》2018,33(4):493-509

Integrated hydrometeorological investigations are not frequently available at a regional scale over a longer time period, especially near the terminus of Indian Himalayan glaciers. An integrated approach to the collection of hydrological data has major advantages for understanding the runoff generation mechanisms at basin scale, particularly when coupled with meteorological observations. The current study involves time series analysis of hydrometeorological records collected near the terminus of the Chorabari Glacier, for four consecutive ablation seasons(June-Sept.) 2009-2012. The analysis shows that variation in rainfall was higher(c_v= 0.9) at the same elevation over proximal sites, while the intensity of extreme rainfall events was 121-160 mm/d. The diurnal temperature range(DTR) has a tendency to reduce over the ablation season because of the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon(ISM) and then further increases during the ISM withdrawal indicating humid-temperate conditions. The peak discharge(Qpeak) was found to be higher during July and August. Snow and glacier melt contributed 76% of the total suspended sediment transport during peak ISM months(July and August) reflecting seasonal evolution of the hydrologic conduits. The results indicate that Karakoram and western Himalayan glaciers produce comparatively low sediment yield compared to central Himalayan glaciers. The hydrological variations are depicted through flow duration curves(FDC) for meltwater discharge and sediment load. The flow corresponding to Q_(50), Q_(75), and Q_(90)(where Qx is the discharge that is exceeded x percent of the time referred to as % dependability) are 4.2, 3.7, and 2.8 m~3/s; and the corresponding dependability for suspended sediment loads(SSLs) are 409.0, 266.0, and 157.2 t/d, respectively. The daily SSL and discharge(Q) from 2009 to 2012 were used to develop a sediment rating curve(SSL = 39.55 × Q~(1.588). R~2 = 0.8).Multiple regressions are used to determine the impacts of meteorological parameters on glacier melt.The meteorological conditions, hydrological characteristics, and suspended sediment delivery for the Chorabari Glacier provide insight on meltwater generation processes and sediment transport patterns during the ISM season.  相似文献   

Comparative application of two erosion models to a basin     

V. HRISSANTHOU 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):279-292

Abstract

Two mathematical models were used to estimate the annual sediment yield resulting from rainfall and runoff at the outlet of the Nestos River basin (Toxotes, Thrace, Greece). The models were applied to that part of the Nestos River basin (838 km²) which lies downstream of three dams. Both models consist of three submodels: a simplified rainfall-runoff submodel, a physically-based surface erosion submodel and a sediment transport submodel for streams. The two models differ only in the surface erosion submodel: that of the first model is based on the relationships of Poesen (1985) for splash detachment and splash transport, while the corresponding submodel of the second model is based on the relationships of Schmidt (1992) for the momentum flux exerted by the droplets and the momentum flux exerted by the overland flow. The degree of conformity between the annual values of sediment yield at the basin outlet according to both models is satisfactory.  相似文献   

Forecasting flash floods using data-based mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts     

P. J. Smith  L. Panziera  K. J. Beven 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1403-1417

Abstract

Data-based mechanistic (DBM) models can offer a parsimonious representation of catchment dynamics. They have been shown to provide reliable accurate flood forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work, the DBM methodology is applied to forecast flash floods in a small Alpine catchment. Compared to previous DBM modelling studies, the catchment response is rapid. The use of novel radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts based on analogues to drive the DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. The characterization of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and a framework for its representation illustrated.