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1.
Abstract Currently there is much discussion regarding the impact of climate change and the vagaries of the weather, in particular extreme weather events. The Himalayas form the main natural water resource of the major river systems of the Indian region. We present a brief review of the available information and data for extreme rainfall events that were experienced in different sectors of the Himalayas during the last 137 years (1871–2007). Across the entire Himalayas, from east to west, there are now 822 rainfall stations. There was an increase in the rainfall station network from 1947 onwards, especially in the Nepal and Bhutan Himalayas. Extreme one-day rainfall has been picked out for each station irrespective of the period for which data are available. The decadal distribution of these extreme one-day rainfalls shows that there is a considerable increase in the frequencies during the decades 1951–1960 to 1991–2000, whereas there is a sudden decrease in the frequencies in the present decade during 2001–2007, indicating the need to understand the response of the systems to global change and the associated physical and climatological changes. This is essential in terms of preserving this natural resource and to encourage environmental management and sustainable development of mountain regions. Citation Nandargi, S. & Dhar, O. N. (2011) Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 930–945. 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACT Rainfall events largely control hydrological processes occurring on and in the ground, but the performance of climate models in reproducing rainfall events has not been investigated enough to guide selection among the models when making hydrological projections. We proposed to compare the durations, intensities, and pause periods, as well as depths of rainfall events when assessing the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of observed rainfall. We also compared the sizes of design storm events and the frequency and severity of drought to demonstrate the consequences of GCM selection. The results show that rainfall and extreme hydrological event projections could significantly vary depending on climate model selection and weather stations, suggesting the need for a careful and comprehensive evaluation of GCM in the hydrological analysis of climate change. The proposed methods are expected to help to improve the accuracy of future hydrological projections for water resources planning. 相似文献
3.
Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China
The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
It is becoming increasingly popular to reintroduce beaver to streams with the hopes of restoring riparian ecosystem function or reducing some of the hydrological impacts of climate change. One of the risks of relying on beaver to enhance ecosystem water storage is that their dams are reportedly more apt to fail during floods which can exacerbate flood severity. Missing are observations of beaver dam persistence and water storage capacity during floods, information needed to evaluate the risk of relying on beaver as a nature-based flood solution. A June rainstorm in 2013 triggered the largest recorded flood in the Canadian Rocky Mountains west of Calgary, Alberta. We opportunistically recorded hydrometric data during the rainfall event at a beaver-occupied peatland that has been studied for more than a decade. We supplemented these observations with a post-event regional analysis of beaver dam persistence. Results do not support two long-held hypotheses—that beaver ponds have limited flood attenuation capacity and commonly fail during large flood events. Instead we found that 68% of the beaver dam cascade systems across the region were intact or partially intact after the event. Pond fullness, in addition to the magnitude of the water-sediment surge, emerged as important factors in determining the structural fate of dam cascade sequences. Beaver ponds at the instrumented site quickly filled in the first few hours of the rain event and levels were dynamic during the event. Water storage offered by the beaver ponds, even ones that failed, delayed downstream floodwater transmission. Study findings have important implications for reintroducing beaver as part of nature-based restoration and climate change adaptation strategies. 相似文献
5.
Abstract Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294. 相似文献
6.
Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, climate models suggest an increase in rainfall intensities in the northern Hemisphere. Major flood events in the UK during autumn 2000 and central Europe in August 2002, have focussed attention on the dramatic impacts these changes may have on many sectors of society. In the companion paper [Fowler et al., J. Hydrol. (2004) this issue], we suggested that the HadRM3H model may be used with some confidence to estimate extreme rainfall distributions, showing good predictive skill in estimating statistical properties of extreme rainfall during the baseline period, 1961–1990. In this study, we use results from the future integration of HadRM3H (following the IPCC SRES scenario A2 for 2070–2100) to assess possible changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using two methods: regional frequency analysis and individual grid box analysis. Results indicate that for short duration events (1–2 days), event magnitude at a given return period will increase by 10% across the UK. For longer duration events (5–10 days), event magnitudes at given return periods show large increases in Scotland (up to +30%), with greater relative change at higher return periods (25–50 years). In the rest of the UK, there are small increases in the magnitude of more frequent events (up to +10%) but reductions at higher return periods (up to −20%). These results provide information to alter design storm depths to examine climate change impacts on various structures. The uncertainty bounds of the estimated changes and a ‘scaling’ methodology are additionally detailed. This allows the estimation of changes for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, and gives some confidence in the use of these estimates in impact studies. 相似文献
7.
Widespread major flood events in both the UK and Europe over the last decade have focussed attention on perceived increases in rainfall intensities. The changing magnitude of such events may have significant impacts upon many sectors, particularly those associated with flooding, water resources and the insurance industry. Here, two methods are used to assess the performance of the HadRM3H model in the simulation of UK extreme rainfall: regional frequency analysis and individual grid box analysis. Both methods use L-moments to derive extreme value distributions of rainfall for 1-, 2-, 5- and 10-day events for both observed data from 204 sites across the UK (1961–1990) and gridded 50 km by 50 km data from the control climate integration of HadRM3H. Despite differences in spatial resolution between the observed and modelled data, HadRM3H provides a good representation of extreme rainfall at return periods of up to 50 years in most parts of the UK. Although the east–west rainfall gradient tends to be exaggerated, leading to some overestimation of extremes in high elevation western areas and an underestimation in eastern ‘rain shadowed’ regions, this suggests that the regional climate model will also have skill in predicting how rainfall extremes might change under enhanced greenhouse conditions. 相似文献
8.
The study focuses on the spatial and temporal variations of intense/extreme rainfall events over Gujarat State (India) during the period 1970–2014. Average monsoon rainfall for the state shows a significant increasing trend, with an increase of 48 mm/decade. Some of the stations in the Saurashtra region show a statistically significant increasing trend but none of the stations in the state show a decreasing trend. The increasing trend in monsoon rainfall is very significant for the past three decades, with an increase of 167 mm/decade. Instead of fixed absolute threshold values, relative threshold values of rainfall corresponding to the 95th, 98th, 99th and 99.5th percentiles for each station have been proposed to represent heavy, very heavy, intense and extreme rainfall, which varied between 70–120, 105–160, 130–210 and 165–280 mm, respectively. Significant increasing trends are observed for the frequency of heavy and very heavy rainfall events over the state. 相似文献
9.
Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation and extreme events on the Loess Plateau of China between 1957 and 2009 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Spatiotemporal trends in precipitation may influence vegetation restoration, and extreme precipitation events profoundly affect soil erosion processes on the Loess Plateau. Daily data collected at 89 meteorological stations in the area between 1957 and 2009 were used to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation on the Loess Plateau and the return periods of different types of precipitation events classified in the study. Nonparametric methods were employed for temporal analysis, and the Kriging interpolation method was employed for spatial analysis. The results indicate a small decrease in precipitation over the Loess Plateau in last 53 years (although a Mann–Kendall test did not show this decrease to be significant), a southward shift in precipitation isohyets, a slightly delayed rainy season, and prolonged return periods, especially for rainstorm and heavy rainstorm events. Regional responses to global climate change have varied greatly. A slightly increasing trend in precipitation in annual and sub‐annual series, with no obvious shift of isohyets, and an evident decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events were detected in the northwest. In the southeast, correspondingly, a more seriously decreasing trend occurred, with clear shifts of isohyets and a slightly decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events. The result suggests that a negative trend in annual precipitation may have led to decreased soil erosion but an increase in sediment yield during several extreme events. These changes in the precipitation over the Loess Plateau should be noted, and countermeasures should be taken to reduce their adverse impacts on the sustainable development of the region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Elisa Arnone Dario Pumo Antonio Francipane Goffredo La Loggia Leonardo V. Noto 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1755-1770
Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km2 to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff. 相似文献
11.
Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2148-2162
AbstractThere is increasing concern that flood risk will be exacerbated in Antalya, Turkey as a result of global-warming-induced, more frequent and intensive, heavy rainfalls. In this paper, first, trends in extreme rainfall indices in the Antalya region were analysed using daily rainfall data. All stations in the study area showed statistically significant increasing trends for at least one extreme rainfall index. Extreme rainfall datasets for current (1970–1989) and future periods (2080–2099) were then constructed for frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold method. Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall data was performed using generalized Pareto distribution for current and future periods in order to estimate rainfall intensities for various return periods. Rainfall intensities for the future period were found to increase by up to 23% more than the current period. This study contributed to better understanding of climate change effects on extreme rainfalls in Antalya, Turkey. 相似文献
12.
Owen D. Jones Petter Nyman Gary J. Sheridan 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(8):2015-2025
Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous event. This process is sensitive to non-stationarity in fire and rainfall regime parameters and therefore suitable for evaluating the effects of climate change and strategic fire management on hydro-geomorphic hazards from burnt areas. In this paper we ask the question, “What is the first-order effect of climate change on the interaction between fire disturbance and storms?” The aim is to isolate the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on the frequency of extreme erosion events. Fire disturbance and storms are represented as independent stochastic processes with properties of spatial extent, temporal duration, and frequency of occurrence, and used in a germ–grain model to quantify the annual area affected by extreme erosion events due to the intersection of fire disturbance and storms. The model indicates that the frequency of extreme erosion events will increase as a result of climate change, although regions with frequent storms were most sensitive. 相似文献
13.
Shiang-Jen Wu Yeou-Koung Tung Jinn-Chuang Yang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,21(2):195-212
Occurrence of rainstorm events can be characterized by the number of events, storm duration, rainfall depth, inter-event time and temporal variation of rainfall within a rainstorm event. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model considering correlated non-normal random rainstorm characteristics, as well as dependence of various rainstorm patterns on rainfall depth, duration, and season. The proposed model was verified by comparing the derived rainfall depth–duration–frequency relations from the simulated rainfall sequences with those from observed annual maximum rainfalls based on the hourly rainfall data at the Hong Kong Observatory over the period of 1884–1990. Through numerical experiments, the proposed model was found to be capable of capturing the essential statistical features of rainstorm characteristics and those of annual extreme rainstorm events according to the available data. 相似文献
14.
Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
16.
Edson Paixao Heather Auld M. Monirul Qader Mirza Joan Klaassen Mark W. Shephard 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1067-1089
Abstract Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario. Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089. 相似文献
17.
Comparative analysis of the response of various land covers to an exceptional rainfall event in the central Spanish Pyrenees,October 2012 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 N. Lana‐Renault E. Nadal‐Romero M. P. Serrano‐Muela B. Alvera P. Sánchez‐Navarrete Y. Sanjuan J. M. García‐Ruiz 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(5):581-592
The hydrological and geomorphological effects of an exceptional rainstorm event that occurred in the central Spanish Pyrenees during 19–21 October 2012 were studied in five experimental catchments under various land covers: (i) subhumid badlands; (ii) dense forest; (iii) an abandoned farmland area recolonized by shrubs and forest patches; and (iv) subalpine grasslands. Hydrographs and sedigraphs demonstrated that vegetation cover is a major factor affecting the control of floods even during exceptional rainstorms, at least at the spatial scale at which the phenomenon was studied (catchment sizes: 0.3–2.8 km2) and under dry catchment conditions. The combined precipitation over the two days (c. 250 mm) was the greatest for any two‐day event recorded since 1950 in the central‐western Pyrenees for all but one of the stations in the study. Five pulses of most intense rainfall were recorded. The forested catchment did not react to the two most intense rainfall pulses, because of the very low antecedent level of the water table. The main peak flow occurred only when at least a part of the catchment was saturated. The abandoned farmland catchment had two small peak discharges at the beginning of the event, which were produced by infiltration excess overland flow from eroded areas close to the main stream. During the third most intense rainfall period a large part of this catchment contributed to runoff and a relatively high peak discharge was produced. The badland catchment reacted immediately from the beginning of the rainstorm, yielding very high discharges accompanied by high suspended sediment concentrations. The subalpine catchment showed a hydrograph mirroring the hyetograph, with brief but intense hydrological responses to increased precipitation, because of the marked gradients and the presence of bare rock in the headwaters. A high volume of bedload was carried during the peak discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Sujeewa Malwila Herath Priyantha Ranjan Sarukkalige Van Thanh Van Nguyen 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):2061-2070
ABSTRACTDownscaling of climate projections is the most adapted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. This study utilized both spatial and temporal downscaling approaches to develop intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Perth airport area. A multiple regression-based statistical downscaling model tool was used for spatial downscaling of daily rainfall using general circulation models (GCMs) (Hadley Centre’s GCM and Canadian Global Climate Model) climate variables. A simple scaling regime was identified for 30 minutes to 24 hours duration of observed annual maximum (AM) rainfall. Then, statistical properties of sub-daily AM rainfall were estimated by scaling an invariant model based on the generalized extreme value distribution. RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and percentage bias values were estimated to check the accuracy of downscaled sub-daily rainfall. This proved the capability of the proposed approach in developing a linkage between large-scale GCM daily variables and extreme sub-daily rainfall events at a given location. Finally IDF curves were developed for future periods, which show similar extreme rainfall decreasing trends for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both GCMs.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae 相似文献
19.
Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin,China 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time–space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio‐temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi‐mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES‐A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38°N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain–Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5–20 years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
J. DA COSTA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):487-488
Abstract The drought event which reached severe levels in 1972 and 1973 caused a major disaster in the Sahalian and sub-Sahalian zones in Africa. This disaster has drawn attention to the need for data surveys and detailed studies for meaningful long-term measures to combat the effects of future droughts. The study reported in this paper is an attempt to assess the hydrological aspects of the drought event in Nigeria in 1972 and 1973. There exist relatively long and reliable records of rainfall within the drought zone, while records for runoff, water level and groundwater are few and far between. Data available are analysed to determine evidence of trend and persistence (short and long-term). An examination of the rainfall records showed that extreme dry years at all the stations tended to recur at about the same time. The time interval between these extreme dry years was about 30 years. It was also observed from the spectral analysis of the records that most of the spectra for all the stations showed a generally high level of variance at low frequency. The limited information on runoff and groundwater precludes a detailed statistical analysis from being carried out on the annual series of runoff. However, the runoff data at some stations snowed that the magnitude of runoff in the drought year 1972/1973 was about 22–72 per cent of the average value for the length of record available (about eight years). Moreover, the long-term water-level record of Lake Chad revealed a similar trend for the occurrence of extreme dry years to that observed in the rainfall record. 相似文献