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1.
The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1 下载免费PDF全文
Elisa Arnone Dario Pumo Antonio Francipane Goffredo La Loggia Leonardo V. Noto 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1755-1770
Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km2 to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff. 相似文献
2.
Aurélie Muller Jean-Noël Bacro Michel Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(1):33-46
Depth–duration–frequency curves estimate the rainfall intensity patterns for various return periods and rainfall durations.
An empirical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution is presented for hourly maximum rainfall, and improved
by the inclusion of daily maximum rainfall, through the extremal indexes of 24 hourly and daily rainfall data. The model is
then divided into two sub-models for the short and long rainfall durations. Three likelihood formulations are proposed to
model and compare independence or dependence hypotheses between the different durations. Dependence is modelled using the
bivariate extreme logistic distribution. The results are calculated in a Bayesian framework with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo
algorithm. The application to a data series from Marseille shows an improvement of the hourly estimations thanks to the combination
between hourly and daily data in the model. Moreover, results are significantly different with or without dependence hypotheses:
the dependence between 24 and 72 h durations is significant, and the quantile estimates are more severe in the dependence
case. 相似文献
3.
The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Yeboah Gyasi-Agyei 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(5):587-606
Conditional daily rainfields were generated using collocated raingauge radar data by a kriging interpolation method, and disaggregated into hourly rainfields using variants of the method of fragments. A geographic information system (GIS)-based distributed rainfall–runoff model was used to convert the hourly rainfields into hydrographs. Using the complete radar rainfall as input, the rainfall–runoff model was calibrated based on storm events taken from nested catchments. Performance statistics were estimated by comparing the observed and the complete radar rainfall simulated hydrographs. Degradation in the hydrograph performance statistics by the simulated hourly rainfields was used to identify runoff error propagation. Uncertainty in daily rainfall amounts alone caused higher errors in runoff (depth, peak, and time to peak) than those caused by uncertainties in the hourly proportions alone. However, the degradation, which reduced with runoff depth, caused by the combined uncertainties was not significantly different from that caused by the uncertainty of amounts alone. 相似文献
5.
An analysis of the extreme wave conditions in 1958–2002 in the North Sea as obtained from a regional model hindcast is presented.
The model was driven by hourly wind fields obtained from a regional atmosphere model forced with reanalysis data from the
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR). Furthermore, observed sea ice conditions from the Norwegian Meteorological
Institute have been accounted for in the simulation. It is shown that the model is capable of reproducing extreme wave height
statistics at a reasonable degree of approximation. The analysis of severe wave height events reveals that for much of the
Southern North Sea, their number has increased since the beginning of the simulation period (1958), although the increase
has attenuated later and leveled off around about 1985. On the other hand, the intensity and duration of severe wave height
events decreased within the last few years of the simulation so that annual 99%-ile wave heights have also reduced since about
1990–1995. For the UK North Sea coast, a different behavior was found characterized by a reduction in severe wave conditions
over much of the hindcast period. 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACTTaking a representative catchment of the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, this research evaluated sub-daily rainstorm variability and its potential effects on flood processes based on an integrated approach of the HEC-HMS model and design storm hyetographs. The results show that the intensities of rainfall on sub-daily scale are getting more extreme. The annual maximum 1-, 2- and 3-hour rainstorms followed significant upward trends with increases of 0.32, 0.43 and 0.44 mm per year, respectively, while the annual maximum 6-, 12- and 24-h events had non-significant rising trends. The detected significant trends in short-duration rainstorms were then used to redesign storm hyetographs to drive the HEC-HMS model, the results show that these changes in short-duration rainstorm characteristics would increase the flood peak discharge and flood volume. These findings indicate that regional flood control capabilities must be improved to manage the adverse impacts of rainfall variation under changing environments. 相似文献
7.
Constrained scaling approach for design rainfall estimation 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Yue-Ping Xu Yeou-Koung Tung 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(6):697-705
Rainfall depth (or intensity) of the same frequency should follow a non-decreasing relationship with rainfall duration. However,
due to the use of finite samples and sampling error, rainfall frequency analysis could yield rainfall intensity (depth)–frequency
(IDF, DDF) curves of different durations that might intersect among them. Results of this kind violate physical reality and
it is more likely to occur when rainfall record length gets shorter. To ensure the compliance of the physical reality, this
paper applied the scale-invariant approach, in conjunction with constrained regression analysis, to circumvent intersections
in rainfall IDF or DDF curves. Rainfall data of various durations at rain gauge in Hong Kong are used to demonstrate the procedure.
Numerical investigation indicates that the proposed procedure yields more reasonable results than those based on the conventional
frequency analysis, especially when only a small sample of data are available. 相似文献
8.
Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Hebei Plain 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
XU Yueqing LI Shuangcheng & CAI Yunlong Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Process Ministry of Education Department of Resources Environmental Geosciences College of Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(12):2241-2250
Rainfall is an important climate factor, which has significant impacts on agricultural production and na-tional economic development[1]. Being part of the North China Plain, the Hebei Plain is an agricultural region. Under the continental monsoon climate, it is cold and dry in winter, hot and rainy in summer, and its variable rainfall is concentrated in summer. Droughts and floods occur frequently and impose sig-nificant impacts on agricultural production. Studies on the characteristics and … 相似文献
9.
Shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area, has caused the occasional loss of human life and millions of dollars in damage to property. The effective management of the hazard requires an understanding of the rainfall conditions that result in landslides. We present an empirical approach to quantify the antecedent moisture conditions and rainstorm intensity and duration that have triggered shallow landsliding using 25 years of hourly rainfall data and a complementary record of landslide occurrence. Our approach combines a simple water balance to estimate the antecedent moisture conditions of hillslope materials and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold to identify periods when shallow landsliding can be expected. The water balance is calibrated with field‐monitoring data and combined with the rainfall intensity–duration threshold using a decision tree. Results are cast in terms of a hypothetical landslide warning system. Two widespread landslide events are correctly identified by the warning scheme; however, it is less accurate for more isolated landsliding. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes in Southern Malawi using the index rainfall and L-moments approaches 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Cosmo S. Ngongondo Chong-Yu Xu Lena M. Tallaksen Berhanu Alemaw Tobias Chirwa 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(7):939-955
Rainfall extremes often result in the occurrence of flood events with associated loss of life and infrastructure in Malawi.
However, an understanding of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme events either for design or disaster planning purposes
is often limited by data availability at the desired temporal and spatial scales. Regionalisation, which involves “trading
time for space” by pooling together observations for stations with similar behavior, is an alternative approach for more accurate
determination of extreme events even at ungauged areas or sites with short records. In this study, regional frequency analysis
of rainfall extremes in Southern Malawi, large parts of which are flood prone, was undertaken. Observed 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-day
annual maximum rainfall series for the period 1978–2007 at 23 selected rainfall stations in Southern Malawi were analysed.
Cluster analysis using scaled at-site characteristics was used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. L-moments were applied
to derive regional index rainfall quantiles. The procedure also validated the three rainfall regions identified through homogeneity
and heterogeneity tests based on Monte Carlo simulations with regional average L-moment ratios fitted to the Kappa distribution.
Based on assessments of the accuracy of the derived index rainfall quantiles, it was concluded that the performance of this
regional approach was satisfactory when validated for sites not included in the sample data. The study provides an estimate
of the regional characteristics of rainfall extremes that can be useful in among others flood mitigation and engineering design. 相似文献
11.
H. ROETHLISBERGER 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):119-121
Abstract This paper describes a stochastic rainfall model which has been developed to generate synthetic sequences of hourly rainfalls at a point. The model has been calibrated using data from Farnborough in Hampshire, England. This rainfall data series was divided into wet and dry spells; analysis of the durations of these spells suggests that they may be represented by exponential and generalized Pareto distributions respectively. The total volume of rainfall in wet spells was adequately fitted by a conditional gamma distribution. Random sampling from a beta distribution, defining the average shape of all rainfall profiles, is used in the model to obtain the rainfall profile for a given wet spell. Results obtained from the model compare favourably with observed monthly and annual rainfall totals and with annual maximum frequency distributions of 1, 2, 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours duration at Farnborough. The model has a total of 22 parameters, some of which are specific to winter or summer seasons. 相似文献
12.
C. Onof R. E. Chandler A. Kakou P. Northrop H. S. Wheater V. Isham 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2000,14(6):384-411
Over a decade ago, point rainfall models based upon Poisson cluster processes were developed by Rodriguez-Iturbe, Cox and
Isham. Two types of point process models were envisaged: the Bartlett–Lewis and the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulse models.
Recent developments are reviewed here, including a number of empirical studies. The parameter estimation problem is addressed
for both types of Poisson-cluster based models. The multiplicity of parameters which can be obtained for a given data set
using the method of moments is illustrated and two approaches to finding a best set of parameters are presented. The use of
a proper fitting method will allow for the problems encountered in regionalisation to be adequately dealt with. Applications
of the point process model to flood design are discussed and finally, results for a model with dependent cell depth and duration
are given. Taking into account the spatial features of rainfall, three multi-site models are presented and compared. They
are all governed by a master Poisson process of storm origins and have a number of cell origins associated with each storm
origin. The three models differ as to the type of dependence structure between the cell characteristics at different sites.
Analytical properties are presented for these models and their ability to represent the spatial structure of a set of raingauge
data in the South-West of England is examined. Continuous spatial-temporal models are currently being developed and results
are presented for a model in which storm centres arrive in a homogeneous Poisson process in space-time, and cells follow them
in time according to a Bartlett–Lewis type cluster. Examples of simulations using this model are shown and compared with radar
data from the South-West of England. The paper concludes with a summary of the main areas in which further research is required. 相似文献
13.
Térence Desclaux Hugues Lemonnier Pierre Genthon Benoit Soulard Romain Le Gendre 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):1689-1706
ABSTRACTThe GR4H lumped hourly rainfall–runoff model was assessed for its integration in a ridge-to-reef modelling framework. Particular attention was paid to rainfall representation, robustness of parameter estimates and ability to reproduce the main runoff features. The study was conducted in four tropical mountainous watersheds in New Caledonia, which are exposed to intense rainfall events, large annual climatic variations triggered by El Niño oscillation, and wildfires. The inverse distance and elevation weighting algorithm outperformed other classical rainfall interpolation methods under data-limited conditions. The time span of data needed for robust calibration was site specific and varied from 6–7 years to 10 years, which may be linked to El Niño events and to wildfires. With sufficient data, simulation quality was equivalent during the calibration and validation periods. The GR4H model was generally able to simulate both flash floods and large annual variations. The model was more reliable when simulating wet years and watersheds not subject to land-cover changes. 相似文献
14.
Majid Mathlouthi Fethi Lebdi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(4):513-528
The paper focuses on the development of reservoir operating rules for dry and rainfall events, and their implementation in
the case of the Ghézala dam located in northern Tunisia (characterized by Mediterranean climate). Rainfall events are defined
in terms of depth and duration that are correlated to each other. A depth analysis per event is performed, conditioned on
the event duration. The gamma distribution provides a good fit to depth per event, especially for events lasting at least
6 days. The event duration fits a geometric distribution, whereas the dry events during the rainy season fit a negative binomial
distribution. The climatic cycle length is fitted to a gamma distribution. On this basis, many 50-year synthetic event series
were generated. Every synthetic streamflow sequence obtained from synthetic rainfall sequences as well as the one derived
from the historic rainfall events time series were optimized and optimal decisions were formulated. These decisions were assessed
by means of multiple regression analysis to estimate the relation between the optimal decision to every stage (dry or rainfall
event) and other system variables. Optimal rules, which have a linear form, were derived by predetermined useful storage interval
and depend on storage, inflows and downstream demand at dry or rainfall event t. The range of t is 1–13 days (rainfall event) and 1–57 days (dry event). The rules were satisfactory for every predetermined useful storage
interval. The simulated dam performance generated by the operation rules was compared with the deterministic optimum operation
and the historical operation. Also included is the comparison of the implicit stochastic optimization-based operation policy
per event during the water years 1985–2002.
相似文献
Fethi LebdiEmail: |
15.
The identification of an appropriate Minimum Inter‐event Time (MIT) based on multifractal characterization of rainfall data series 下载免费PDF全文
Different hydrological models of sediment entrainment, infiltration, overland flow production, soil loss, landslide occurrence, among others, need rainfall events data. The Minimum Inter‐event Time (MIT) used to separate rainfall events affects their properties. Therefore, it is highly important their correct definition. Various event definitions are commonly used in hydrology, and a high variety of MIT is applied. In this work, an easy method is proposed for deciding the proper MIT in a certain place when dealing with hourly rainfall data series. This new methodology is based on the scale invariance properties of rainfall, analysed with both multifractal and Self‐Organized Criticality theories. The similarity between some parameters from both analyses allows picking out the more appropriate MIT for the hourly rainfall data sets analysed, in Malaga (Southern Spain) and Bullileo (Central Chile). The method can be applied for different rainfall time resolutions according to the purpose of the model that needs the rain event information. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept 下载免费PDF全文
Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Design rainfall estimation in Australia: a case study using L moments and Generalized Least Squares Regression 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
K. Haddad A. Rahman J. Green 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(6):815-825
Design rainfall is an important input to rainfall runoff models and is used for many other water resources planning and design
applications. The estimation of design rainfall is generally done by applying a regional frequency analysis technique that
uses data from a large number of rainfall stations in the region. This paper presents a regional rainfall frequency analysis
technique that uses an L moments based index method coupled with Generalized Least Squares Regression (GLSR). The particular
advantages of the GLSR method are that it accounts for the differences in record lengths across various sites in the region
and inter-station correlation in deriving regional prediction equations. The proposed method has been applied to a data set
consisting of 203 rainfall stations across Australia. It has been found that the proposed method can be applied successfully
in deriving reasonably accurate design rainfall estimates from 1 to 72 h durations. It has also been found that the proposed
method provides quite consistent estimates where a third order polynomial is adequate in smoothing the intensity–frequency–duration
(IFD) curves. The method can readily be extended to a larger data set of Australia and other countries to derive generalized
IFD data. 相似文献
18.
Data on performance of a geomorphologic rainfall-runoff model in simulating observed flash flood hydrographs in 32 arid catchments have been analysed. The catchments, which are located in the southwest region of Saudi Arabia, vary in their size, slope of land, and characteristics of soils, and are in zones of different rainstorm characteristics. The sensitivity of the model accuracy with various catchment and rainfall characteristics has been investigated. Size, followed by rate of infiltration and slope of land, are the most effective catchment characteristics affecting the accuracy. In addition, the accuracy varies with spatial and temporal rainfall variation, total rainfall depth, and length of the dry period between two successive rainstorms over catchment. It is sensitive to temporal rainfall variation more than spatial rainfall variation, and to the dry period more than total rainfall depth. Generally, the model did not display an accuracy approaching that of the observations, especially in simulating peak flowrates in large size infiltrating catchments having high temporal rainstorm variation. Guidelines on the best use of the model in arid catchments were proposed. 相似文献
19.
We develop a doubly stochastic point process model with exponentially decaying pulses to describe the statistical properties of the rainfall intensity process. Mathematical formulation of the point process model is described along with second-order moment characteristics of the rainfall depth and aggregated processes. The derived second-order properties of the accumulated rainfall at different aggregation levels are used in model assessment. A data analysis using 15 years of sub-hourly rainfall data from England is presented. Models with fixed and variable pulse lifetime are explored. The performance of the model is compared with that of a doubly stochastic rectangular pulse model. The proposed model fits most of the empirical rainfall properties well at sub-hourly, hourly and daily aggregation levels. 相似文献
20.
While the hydrological balance of forest ecosystems has often been studied at the annual level, quantitative studies on the factors determining rainfall partitioning of individual rain events are less frequently reported. Therefore, the effect of the seasonal variation in canopy cover on rainfall partitioning was studied for a mature deciduous beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree over a 2‐year period. At the annual level, throughfall amounted to 71% of precipitation, stemflow 8%, and interception 21%. Rainfall partitioning at the event level depended strongly on the amount of rainfall and differed significantly (p < 0·001) between the leafed and the leafless period of the year. Therefore, water fluxes of individual events were described using a multiple regression analysis (ra2 > 0·85, n = 205) with foliation, rainfall characteristics and meteorological variables as predictor variables. For a given amount of rainfall, foliation significantly increased interception and decreased throughfall and stemflow amounts. In addition, rainfall duration, maximum rainfall rate, vapour pressure deficit, and wind speed significantly affected rainfall partitioning at the event level. Increasing maximum hourly rainfall rate increased throughfall and decreased stemflow generation, while higher hourly vapour pressure deficit decreased event throughfall and stemflow amounts. Wind speed decreased throughfall in the growing period only. Since foliation and the event rainfall amount largely determined interception loss, the observed net water input under the deciduous canopy was sensitive to the temporal distribution of rainfall. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献