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1.
ABSTRACT

Downscaling of climate projections is the most adapted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. This study utilized both spatial and temporal downscaling approaches to develop intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Perth airport area. A multiple regression-based statistical downscaling model tool was used for spatial downscaling of daily rainfall using general circulation models (GCMs) (Hadley Centre’s GCM and Canadian Global Climate Model) climate variables. A simple scaling regime was identified for 30 minutes to 24 hours duration of observed annual maximum (AM) rainfall. Then, statistical properties of sub-daily AM rainfall were estimated by scaling an invariant model based on the generalized extreme value distribution. RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and percentage bias values were estimated to check the accuracy of downscaled sub-daily rainfall. This proved the capability of the proposed approach in developing a linkage between large-scale GCM daily variables and extreme sub-daily rainfall events at a given location. Finally IDF curves were developed for future periods, which show similar extreme rainfall decreasing trends for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both GCMs.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae  相似文献   

2.
徐天奕 《湖泊科学》2022,34(4):1308-1318
太湖是太湖流域最大的调蓄水体,合理地推求太湖流域设计暴雨,对于太湖设计洪水位确定非常重要.针对近年来太湖流域变化环境造成的暴雨特性及产汇流机制的变异,采用水文水动力学模型模拟分析了现状条件下太湖流域设计暴雨控制时段及时空分布对太湖洪水位影响.结果表明,以30、60、90日为控制时段的设计雨量与太湖最高洪水位关联密切,控制时段低于30日的暴雨时程分配对太湖最高洪水位基本没有影响.当设计暴雨中心位于太湖上游区域时,模拟的太湖洪水位具有明显升高的趋势,表明太湖洪水位对上游暴雨更为敏感.分析了1999、2016、2020年暴雨为典型的设计暴雨场景,结果表明,暴雨时程分配对太湖洪水位影响显著,主雨峰位于暴雨后期的设计暴雨可以造成更高的太湖洪水位.从太湖防洪安全考虑,采用30、60、90日为控制时段,暴雨中心位于上游,且雨峰位于暴雨过程后期的设计暴雨推求太湖洪水位是合适的.建议将2016、2020年暴雨过程列入太湖设计暴雨计算的备选典型,并作进一步分析论证.  相似文献   

3.
Occurrence of rainstorm events can be characterized by the number of events, storm duration, rainfall depth, inter-event time and temporal variation of rainfall within a rainstorm event. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model considering correlated non-normal random rainstorm characteristics, as well as dependence of various rainstorm patterns on rainfall depth, duration, and season. The proposed model was verified by comparing the derived rainfall depth–duration–frequency relations from the simulated rainfall sequences with those from observed annual maximum rainfalls based on the hourly rainfall data at the Hong Kong Observatory over the period of 1884–1990. Through numerical experiments, the proposed model was found to be capable of capturing the essential statistical features of rainstorm characteristics and those of annual extreme rainstorm events according to the available data.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

The method of “historic event” is used to generate synthetic hyetographs based on statistical analysis of precipitation data. A synthetic triangular model was developed based on rainfall data of Zioud watershed (central Tunisia) with a standard time step of one hour. A database of 2799 observed rainfall events was used to provide statistical parameters for a simple triangular-shaped hyetograph model. The developed model provides a synthetic hyetograph in dimensionless form for different storm durations (2, 3 and 4 hours). For a given season and location, the variation of the first dimensionless moment with duration was relatively small, with an average range of 13% for all the stations. The resulting dimensionless hyetographs were found to be nearly identical when they were non-dimensionalized using the rainfall depth and duration, showing some seasonal effect and insignificant effects of the rainfall duration. A good agreement between simulated and observed hyetographs was achieved based on not only visual impressions, but also statistical numerical and graphical tests.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario.

Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089.  相似文献   

6.
This article explores the relations between network properties and the effect from moving rainstorms in terms of the peak response and time to centroid of hydrographs. A simple conceptual rectangular catchment is introduced with different configurations of drainage network simulated by the Gibbs stochastic model. The efficiency of the urban pipe networks varies widely compared with natural river networks; hence, the Gibbs model can be an appropriate approach to represent the network properties in urban drainage system. Simple cases of rainstorms moving with upstream and downstream directions and different speeds are considered to investigate the effect of rainstorm movement on urban drainage network runoff hydrographs. The results indicate that the effect of the direction and speed of the rainstorm movement varies significantly depending on the network properties. The relationship between storm speed and direction and the change in the peak runoff is dependent on the network configuration and network efficiency. In contrast to previous studies, this study indicates that the speed and direction of the rainfall movement that produces the maximum peak discharge changes depending on the network configuration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Hydrologic engineering designs and analyses often require the specification of design storm which involves rainfall amount, duration and hyetograph. In practice, the determination of design rainfall in hydrologic engineering applications involves the frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls of different durations and the establishment of rainfall hyetograph for the design event under consideration. Sampling errors exist in the estimation of rainfall depth (or intensity) quantiles from frequency analysis, which will be transmitted in the process of determining the design rainfall hyetograph. This paper presents a practical methodological framework based on the bootstrap resampling scheme to assess the uncertainty features associated with the magnitude of estimated rainfall depth/intensity quantiles and the corresponding design hyetographs. The procedure is implemented to quantify uncertainty of design rainfall hyetograph following the Stormwater Drainage Manual of Hong Kong involving the use of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) model. Of particular interesting is that the bootstrap resampling scheme implemented herein is modified to handle unequal record period of annual maximum rainfall data series of different durations and to account for their intrinsic correlations. According to the adopted rainfall IDF model, the design rainfall hyetograph is a function of the IDF model coefficients. Due to the correlation among rainfall quantiles of different durations, the IDF coefficients are found to be strongly related in a nonlinear fashion which should not be ignored in the establishment of the design hyetographs.  相似文献   

8.
Despite the significant role of precipitation in the hydrological cycle, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the impacts of the temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on the performance of SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) models in large-sized river basins. In this study, both daily and hourly rainfall observations at 28 rainfall stations were used as inputs to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin. Study results have demonstrated that the SWAT model with hourly rainfall inputs performed better than the model with daily rainfall inputs in daily streamflow simulation, primarily due to its better capability of simulating peak flows during the flood season. The sub-daily SWAT model estimated that 58 % of streamflow was contributed by baseflow compared to 34 % estimated by the daily model. Using the future daily and 3-h precipitation projections under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 scenario as inputs, the sub-daily SWAT model predicted a larger amount of monthly maximum daily flow during the wet years than the daily model. The differences between the daily and sub-daily SWAT model simulation results indicated that temporal rainfall resolution could have much impact on the simulation of hydrological process, streamflow, and consequently pollutant transport by SWAT models. There is an imperative need for more studies to examine the effects of temporal rainfall resolution on the simulation of hydrological and water pollutant transport processes by SWAT in river basins of different environmental conditions.  相似文献   

9.
Data on drop size distribution and kinetic energy load of rainstorms are basic for rainfall erosivity indices. A simple and relatively inexpensive instrument was used to asses the instantaneous intensity and kinetic energy load of rainstorms in Hong Kong. Both the drop size and the instantaneous kinetic energy load of rainfall in Hong Kong are greater than in temperate and subtropical climates. The high kinetic energy results from the large size and greater number of raindrops falling per unit time. A high correlation between the kinetic energy of rainfall and the amount of rainfall allows for a convenient estimate of the energy load of storms from the amount of rainfall. Of more significance to the erosion process is the determination that about 74% of the total annual rainfall is erosive, containing about three‐quarters of the total annual energy load of the rains. The variability of rainfall parameters within a rainfall and from storm to storm is shown. The energy–intensity relationship, seasonal and annual distributions of rainfall erosivity are presented. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
M. Nouh 《水文研究》1990,4(2):103-120
Data on performance of a geomorphologic rainfall-runoff model in simulating observed flash flood hydrographs in 32 arid catchments have been analysed. The catchments, which are located in the southwest region of Saudi Arabia, vary in their size, slope of land, and characteristics of soils, and are in zones of different rainstorm characteristics. The sensitivity of the model accuracy with various catchment and rainfall characteristics has been investigated. Size, followed by rate of infiltration and slope of land, are the most effective catchment characteristics affecting the accuracy. In addition, the accuracy varies with spatial and temporal rainfall variation, total rainfall depth, and length of the dry period between two successive rainstorms over catchment. It is sensitive to temporal rainfall variation more than spatial rainfall variation, and to the dry period more than total rainfall depth. Generally, the model did not display an accuracy approaching that of the observations, especially in simulating peak flowrates in large size infiltrating catchments having high temporal rainstorm variation. Guidelines on the best use of the model in arid catchments were proposed.  相似文献   

11.
In much of western United States destructive floods after wildfire are frequently caused by localized, short‐duration convective thunderstorms; however, little is known about post‐fire flooding from longer‐duration, low‐intensity mesoscale storms. In this study we estimate and compare peak flows from convective and mesoscale floods following the 2012 High Park Fire in the ungaged 15.5 km2 Skin Gulch basin in the northcentral Colorado Front Range. The convective storm on 6 July 2012 came just days after the wildfire was contained. Radar data indicated that the total rainfall was 20–47 mm, and the maximum rainfall intensities (upwards of 50 mm h?1) were concentrated over portions of the watershed that burned at high severity. The mesoscale storm on 9–15 September 2013 produced 220–240 mm of rain but had maximum 15‐min intensities of only 25–32 mm h?1. Peak flows for each flood were estimated using three independent techniques. Our best estimate using a 2D hydraulic model was 28 m3 s?1 km?2 for the flood following the convective storm, placing it among the largest rainfall‐runoff floods per unit area in the United States. In contrast, the flood associated with the mesoscale flood was only 6 m3 s?1 km?2, but the long‐duration flood caused extensive channel incision and widening, indicating that this storm was much more geomorphically effective. The peak flow estimates for the 2013 flood had a higher relative uncertainty and this stemmed from whether we used pre‐ or post‐flood channel topography. The results document the extent to which a high and moderate severity forest fire can greatly increase peak flows and alter channel morphology, illustrate how indirect peak flow estimates have larger errors than is generally assumed, and indicate that the magnitude of post‐fire floods and geomorphic change can be affected by the timing, magnitude, duration, and sequence of rainstorms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Interannual variation of summer precipitation in East China, and frequency of rainstorms during the monsoon season from 1961 to 2010, are analyzed in this study. It is found that the two variables show opposite trends on a decadal time scale: frequency of rainstorms increases significantly after the 1990s, while summer precipitation in East China decreases during the same period. Analysis of the spatial distribution of summer rainstorm frequency from 1961 to 2010 indicates that it decreases from the southeast to the northwest at the east edge of the large-scale topography associated with the plateaus. Spatial distribution of rainstorms with daily rainfall greater than 50 mm is characterized by a “high in the southeast and low in the northwest” pattern, similar to the staircase distribution of the topography. However, the spatial distribution of variation in both summer precipitation and frequency of extreme rainstorms under global warming differs significantly from the three-step staircase topography. It is shown that moisture characteristics of summer precipitation and extreme rainstorms during the monsoon season in East China, including moisture transport pathways, moist flow pattern, and spatial structure of the merging area of moist flows, differ significantly. Areas of frequent rainstorms include the Yangtze River Valley and South China. Column- integrated moisture transport and its spatial structure could be summarized as a “merging” of three branches of intense moist flows from low and middle latitude oceans, and “convergence” of column-integrated moisture fluxes. The merging area for moist flow associated with rainstorms in the high frequency region is located slightly to the south of the monsoonal precipitation or non-rainstorm precipitation, with significantly strong moisture convergence. In addition, the summer moist flow pattern in East China has a great influence on the frequency of extreme rainstorms. Moisture flux vectors in the region of frequent rainstorms correspond to vortical flow pattern. A comparison of moisture flux vectors associated with non-rainstorms and rainstorms indicates that the moist vortex associated with rainstorms is smaller in size and located to the south of the precipitation maximum, while the moist vortex associated with non-rainstorms is larger and located to the north. It is shown that column- integrated moist transport vortices and the structure of moist flux convergence have significant impacts on the north-south oscillation of frequent rainstorm areas in East China, which is synchronized with the maximum vorticity of moisture transport and the minimum of convergence on the decadal time scale. Synthesis of moisture transport pathways and related circulation impacts leads to a conceptual model of moisture flow associated with rainstorms.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract

The accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time.  相似文献   

14.
Documenting hillslope response to hydroclimatic forcing is crucial to our understanding of landscape evolution. The evolution of talus-pediment sequences (talus flatirons) in arid areas was often linked to climatic cycles, although the physical processes that may account for such a link remain obscure. Our approach is to integrate field measurements, remote sensing of rainfall and modeling to link between storm frequency, runoff, erosion and sediment transport. We present a quantitative hydrometeorological analysis of rainstorms, their geomorphic impact and their potential role in the evolution of hyperarid talus-pediment slopes in the Negev desert, Israel. Rainstorm properties were defined based on intensity–duration–frequency curves and using a rainfall simulator, artificial rainstorms were executed in the field. Then, the obtained measured experimental results were up-scaled to the entire slope length using a fully distributed hydrological model. In addition, natural storms and their hydro-geomorphic impacts were monitored using X-band radar and time-lapse cameras. These integrated analyses constrain the rainfall threshold for local runoff generation at rain intensity of 14 to 22 mm h-1 for a duration of five minutes and provide a high-resolution characterization of small-scale runoff-generating rain cells. The current frequency of such runoff-producing rainstorms is ~1–3 per year. However, extending this local value into the full extent of hillslope runoff indicates that it occurs only under rainstorms with ≥ 100-years return interval, or 1% annual exceedance probability. Sheetwash efficiency rises with downslope distance; beyond a threshold distance of ~100 m, runoff during rainstorms with such annual exceedance probability are capable of transporting surface clasts. The erosion efficiency of these discrete rare events highlights their potential importance in shaping the landscape of arid regions. Our results support the hypothesis that a shift in the properties and frequency of extreme events can trigger significant geomorphic transitions in areas that remained hyperarid during the entire Quaternary. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

This paper analyses a number of aspects related to the estimation of the design flood for a dam. A new approach to the estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is described which takes advantage of the spatial variability of precipitation by using radar-derived distributed rainfall measurements. Procedures which utilize storm transposition and storm maximization are introduced to estimate the probable maximum flood (PMF) and are compared with regionalized statistical methods based upon the Wakeby and generalized extreme value distributions.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook

Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373.  相似文献   

17.
A simulation experiment for optimal design hyetograph selection   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The aim of this work is to assess the accuracy of literature design hyetographs for the evaluation of peak discharges during flood events. Five design hyetographs are examined in a set of simulations, based upon the following steps: (i) an ideal river basin is defined, characterized by a Beta distribution shaped unit hydrograph (UH); (ii) 1000 years of synthetic rainfall are artificially generated; (iii) a discharge time‐series is obtained from the convolution of the rainfall time‐series and the UH, and the reference T‐years flood is computed from this series; (iv) for the same return period T, the parameters of the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve are estimated from the 1000 years of synthetic rainfall; (v) five design hyetographs are determined from the IDF curves and are convolved with the discrete UH to find the corresponding design hydrographs; (vi) the hydrograph peaks are compared with the reference T‐years flood and the advantages and drawbacks of each of the five approaches are evaluated. The rainfall and UH parameters are varied, and the whole procedure is repeated to assess the sensitivity of results to the system configuration. We found that all design hyetographs produce flood peak estimates that are consistently biased in most of the climatic and hydrologic conditions considered. In particular, significant underestimation of the design flood results from the adoption of any rectangular hyetograph used in the context of the rational formula. In contrast, the Chicago hyetograph tends to overestimate peak flows. In two cases it is sufficient to multiply the result by a constant scaling factor to obtain robust and nearly unbiased estimates of the design floods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
1 INTRODUCTION In the watershed of the Jiangjia Ravine, the frequency of occurrence of rainstorms which can mobilize debris flows is high, and there are abundant unconsolidated materials deposited in the upstream area, these resulted in frequent eruption …  相似文献   

19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):353-366
Abstract

Statistical analyses of hydrological time series play a vital role in water resources studies. Twenty-nine statistical tests for detecting time series characteristics were evaluated by applying them to analyse 46 years of annual rainfall, 47 years of 1-day maximum rainfall and consecutive 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfalls at Kharagpur, West Bengal, India. The performance of all the tests was evaluated. No severe outliers were found, and both the annual and maximum rainfall series were found to be normally distributed. Based on the known physical parameters affecting the homogeneity, the cumulative deviations and the Bayesian tests were found to be superior to the classical von Neumann test. Similarly, the Tukey test proved excellent among all the multiple comparison tests. These tests indicated that all the seven rainfall series are homogeneous. Two parametric t tests and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test indicated stationarity in all the rainfall series. Of 12 trend detection tests, nine tests indicated no trends in the rainfall series. The Kendall's Rank Correlation test and the Mann-Kendall test were found equally powerful. Moreover, the Fourier series analysis revealed no apparent periodicities in all the seven rainfall series. The annual rainfall series was found persistent with a time lag of nine years. All the rainfall series were subjected to stochastic analysis by fitting 35 autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models of different orders. The best-fit models for the original annual rainfall and 1-, 2- and 3-day maximum rainfall series were found to be ARMA(0,4), ARMA(0,2), ARMA(0,2) and ARMA(3,0), respectively. The best-fit model for the logarithmically transformed 4-day maximum rainfall was found to be ARMA(0,2). However, for the inversely transformed 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series, ARMA(0,1) was obtained as the best-fit model. It is concluded that proper selection of time series tests and use of several tests is indispensable for making useful and reliable decisions.  相似文献   

20.
运用三维荧光光谱（EEMs）技术结合平行因子分析法（PARAFAC）,对周村水库夏季两场暴雨不同降雨历时以及分子量的溶解有机物光谱特征和来源进行分析.结果表明：周村水库不同暴雨荧光光谱中出现了5种组分,分别为类腐殖质（C1、C2）、可见区富里酸（C3）和类蛋白（C4、C5）;相关性分析显示C1与C2、C3、C4以及C5具有显著的相关性,C2与C3具有显著的相关性,C3与C4以及C5具有显著的相关性;同一分子量下的雨水有机质总荧光强度以及各组分荧光强度随着降雨历时的增加均呈下降趋势,并且在各个历时和分子量间差异明显;同一降雨历时下,第一场暴雨总荧光强度随着分子量的减少而增加,第二场暴雨总荧光强度随着分子量的减少而减少;两场暴雨都呈现自生源的特征,其中第一场暴雨具有以陆源输入为主的特征;组分C1和C3与水质参数硝态氮、氨氮、总氮以及有机碳呈显著相关性.通过对暴雨在不同降雨历时以及分子量DOM光谱特征研究,可以进一步分析水库外源输入的天然有机质特征,为水库水质管理提供技术支持.  相似文献   

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