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1.
ABSTRACTRapid urbanization in China has severely disturbed the underlying surface and river systems. The stream structure parameters of Suzhou City were analysed to study the evolution and spatial differentiation of a water system undergoing urbanization. The influencing pattern of different urbanization processes on river system structure and hydrological processes was detected by statistical methods and simulation analysis. The results show that urban sprawl is influenced by both the natural environment and the social economy. At different stages of urbanization, the spatial urban expansion and the natural river characteristics influence the evolution of the river network: during rapid urbanization, the decline in surface water ratio and river density is more intense. The decrease of surface water ratio and river density in rapidly urbanized areas was greatest, followed by that in area urbanized in the 1980s, with few changes in the old town. Under high urbanization, river system indicators tend to stabilize. The rivers’ hydrological features were affected by urbanization, with water yield in the study area increasing from 0.81 to 0.95 m3/m2 (1991–2015). The same rainfall intensity results in higher flood levels and greater risk of flooding under rapid urbanization. 相似文献
2.
M. Pirastru 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):898-911
Abstract Many of the hydrological and ecological functions of alluvial flood plains within watersheds depend on the water flow exchanges between the vadoze soil zone and the shallow groundwater. The water balance of the soil in the flood plain is investigated, in order to evaluate the main hydrological processes that underlie the temporal dynamics of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The soil moisture and the groundwater level in the flood plain were monitored continuously for a three-year period. These data were integrated with the results derived from applying a physically-based numerical model which simulated the variably-saturated vertical water flow in the soil. The analysis indicated that the simultaneous processes of lateral groundwater flow and the vertical recharge from the unsaturated zone caused the observed water table fluctuations. The importance of these flows in determining the rises in the water table varied, depending on soil moisture and groundwater depth before precipitation. The monitoring period included two hydrological years (September 2009–September 2011). About 13% of the precipitation vertically recharged the groundwater in the first year and about 50% in the second. The difference in the two recharge coefficients was in part due to the lower groundwater levels in the recharge season of the first hydrological year, compared to those observed in the second. In the latter year, the shallow groundwater increased the soil moisture in the unsaturated zone due to capillary rise, and so the mean hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated soil was high. This moisture state of soil favoured a more efficient conversion of infiltrated precipitation into vertical groundwater recharge. The results show that groundwater dynamics in the flood plain are an important source of temporal variability in soil moisture and vertical recharge processes, and this variability must be properly taken into account when the water balance is investigated in shallow groundwater environments. Citation Pirastru, M. and Niedda, M., 2013. Evaluation of the soil water balance in an alluvial flood plain with a shallow groundwater table. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 898–911. 相似文献
3.
Abstract This paper examines the potential effects of urbanization on streamflow in Maine, USA, from 1950 to 2000. The study contrasts nine watersheds in southern Maine, which has seen steady urban growth over the study period, with nine rural watersheds from northern Maine. Historical population data and current land cover data are used to develop an urbanization score for each watershed. Trends in watershed urbanization over the study period are compared to trends in ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics. The results indicate that trends in northern, rural watersheds are much more consistent than the trends in the southern watersheds. Additionally, trends in the southern watersheds are inconsistent with the hydrological characteristics observed in urban watersheds elsewhere, likely due to the comparatively low level of current urban development in Maine's urban watersheds. Our study suggests that urban areas in Maine have not yet reached an urbanization threshold where streamflow impacts become consistently detectable. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Martin, E.H., Kelleher, C., and Wagener, T., 2012. Has urbanization changed ecological streamflow characteristics in Maine (USA)? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1337–1354. 相似文献
4.
Abstract The increasing water demand is a concern affecting many regions in the Mediterranean Basin. To overcome this situation rim countries resorted during the last decades to a massive mobilization of their water resources, often resulting in excessive water exploitation. In such a context, understanding the effects of present recharge and aquifer salinization is crucial for correct water management. Understanding the present hydrogeological situation of coastal plains requires the knowledge of both their past morphologic conditions and their recent geological evolution. Within this framework, this paper presents a review of water related problems in the Mediterranean Basin. It suggests a conceptual model for groundwater resources in Mediterranean coastal plains, deriving from the present and past recharge processes. Special attention is paid to providing a better understanding of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality, and conservation of ecological diversity. Citation Re, V. & Zuppi, G. M. (2011) Influence of precipitation and deep saline groundwater on the hydrological systems of Mediterranean coastal plains: a general overview. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 966–980. 相似文献
5.
ABSTRACTPrediction of design hydrographs is key in floodplain mapping using hydraulic models, which are either steady state or unsteady. The former, which require only an input peak, substantially overestimate the volume of water entering the floodplain compared to the more realistic dynamic case simulated by the unsteady models that require the full hydrograph. Past efforts to account for the uncertainty of boundary conditions using unsteady hydraulic modeling have been based largely on a joint flood frequency–shape analysis, with only a very limited number of studies using hydrological modeling to produce the design hydrographs. This study therefore presents a generic probabilistic framework that couples a hydrological model with an unsteady hydraulic model to estimate the uncertainty of flood characteristics. The framework is demonstrated on the Swannanoa River watershed in North Carolina, USA. Given its flexibility, the framework can be applied to study other sources of uncertainty in other hydrological models and watersheds. 相似文献
6.
随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,城市化地区水文过程受到较大影响,极端水文事件发生频率显著加大,探究城市化地区洪水演变和驱动机理对于防洪减灾具有重大意义。本文以长江下游快速城市化地区的秦淮河流域为例,分析了1987—2018年期间该流域年最大日径流的演变特征,构建多元线性回归模型和广义可加GAMLSS模型识别了关键驱动因子并量化其贡献作用。结果表明:(1)城市化背景下秦淮河流域年最大日径流呈现显著上升趋势,平均增长速率为14.77 m3/(s·a),并于2001年发生显著突变。(2)汛期降水量和不透水面率是年最大日径流变化的关键驱动因素,最优模型显示前者贡献率超过了70%,表明了降水改变的决定性作用,而不透水面率贡献率超过20%则表明了下垫面的改变对年最大日径流演变存在显著影响。(3)不透水面的增加对年最大日径流和汛期降水量响应关系的影响程度从突变前的6.7%增加到突变后的10.4%,快速城市化已显著改变了流域降水-径流响应过程。研究表明,随着城市发展秦淮河流域的年最大日径流受到人类活动显著影响,洪涝威胁日趋增大,研究结果可为城市化地区防洪减灾提供一定参考。 相似文献
7.
The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Elisa Arnone Dario Pumo Antonio Francipane Goffredo La Loggia Leonardo V. Noto 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1755-1770
Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km2 to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff. 相似文献
8.
ABSTRACTFlood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps. 相似文献
9.
AbstractIn order to apply the EU Water Framework Directive for temporary streams, it is important to quantify the space–time development of different aquatic states. We report on research on the development of aquatic states for temporary streams in the Evrotas basin, Greece. The SIMGRO regional hydrological model was used in a GIS framework to generate flow time series for the Evrotas River and all major tributaries. Five flow phases were distinguished: flood conditions, riffles, connected pools, isolated pools and dry bed conditions. Thresholds based on local hydraulic characteristics were identified per stream reach and flow phase, enabling the frequency of flow phases per month and the average frequencies for all streams to be derived. Three historical scenarios within the 20th century, marking periods of major changes in water management, were investigated. Additionally, a climate scenario for the 2050s was analysed. Simulations revealed that low flows are now much lower, mainly because more groundwater is abstracted for irrigation. The consequence is that stretches of the river fall dry during several months, causing the ecological status to deteriorate.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor X. Chen 相似文献
10.
Abstract The flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal flood plains of the Sudd swamps in southern Sudan are, while dependent on the river levels, influenced by a complex interaction between soil, vegetation, topography and seasonal trends in rainfall and evapotranspiration. Based on field measurements, these components have been assessed in detail and evaluated regarding their function in the seasonal cycle of flooding and drying. A detailed analysis of soil and evapotranspiration conditions, as well as the interaction with vegetation and meteorological conditions, has been conducted using field and laboratory experiments. Sources, processes, flow directions and the fate of the floodwaters on both the river-fed seasonal flood plains and the rain-fed grasslands have been established. The results show that river spill is responsible for flooding these areas while no return flow occurs, and drying is caused by evapotranspiration. Rainfall can only cause temporary flooding in extreme events. Citation Petersen, G. & Fohrer, N. (2010) Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 4–16. 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACT Two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human–flood system and change vulnerability over time. To focus on the dynamic role of individual and governmental decision making on flood-risk management, we developed and implemented a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework. Within this framework, household agents are located in a floodplain protected by a levee system. Individual behaviour is based on Protection Motivation Theory and includes the options to (1) not react to flood risk; (2) implement individual flood protection measures; or (3) file a complaint to the government. The government decides about reinforcing the levee system, compromising between a cost-benefit analysis and filed complaints from households. We found that individual decision making can significantly influence flood risk. In addition, the coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework approach captures commonly observed socio-hydrological dynamics, namely levee and adaptation effects. It provides an explanatory tool for assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of flood risk in a socio-hydrological system. 相似文献
12.
Abstract The segmentation of flood seasons has both theoretical and practical importance in hydrological sciences and water resources management. The probability change-point analysis technique is applied to segmenting a defined flood season into a number of sub-seasons. Two alternative sampling methods, annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold, are used to construct the new flow series. The series is assumed to follow the binomial distribution and is analysed with the probability change-point analysis technique. A Monte Carlo experiment is designed to evaluate the performance of proposed flood season segmentation models. It is shown that the change-point based models for flood season segmentation can rationally partition a flood season into appropriate sub-seasons. China's new Three Gorges Reservoir, located on the upper Yangtze River, was selected as a case study since a hydrological station with observed flow data from 1882 to 2003 is located 40 km downstream of the dam. The flood season of the reservoir can be reasonably divided into three sub-seasons: the pre-flood season (1 June–2 July); the main flood season (3 July–10 September); and the post-flood season (11–30 September). The results of flood season segmentation and the characteristics of flood events are reasonable for this region. Citation Liu, P., Guo, S., Xiong, L. & Chen, L. (2010) Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 540–554. 相似文献
13.
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1363-1376
AbstractThe concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km2-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km2 to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889 相似文献
14.
Maria Clara Fava Maurizio Mazzoleni Narumi Abe Eduardo Mario Mendiondo Dimitri P. Solomatine 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(7):1096-1111
ABSTRACTPoorly monitored catchments could pose a challenge in the provision of accurate flood predictions by hydrological models, especially in urbanized areas subject to heavy rainfall events. Data assimilation techniques have been widely used in hydraulic and hydrological models for model updating (typically updating model states) to provide a more reliable prediction. However, in the case of nonlinear systems, such procedures are quite complex and time-consuming, making them unsuitable for real-time forecasting. In this study, we present a data assimilation procedure, which corrects the uncertain inputs (rainfall), rather than states, of an urban catchment model by assimilating water-level data. Five rainfall correction methods are proposed and their effectiveness is explored under different scenarios for assimilating data from one or multiple sensors. The methodology is adopted in the city of São Carlos, Brazil. The results show a significant improvement in the simulation accuracy. 相似文献
15.
Abstract A two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic assessment of the Nile swamps in southern Sudan has been carried out using DHI MIKE 21 software based on a ground referenced and corrected Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model. The model was set up and calibrated using available historical information as well as newly measured data. The results show the model capable of representing the hydraulic conditions in the swamps, allowing the assessment of different flow conditions and their effects on the swamp. The study has established water-level gradients, flow directions and velocities in the swamp, as well as on the seasonal flood plains, and describes the importance of evapotranspiration for losses in the system. Citation Petersen, G. & Fohrer, N. (2010) Two-dimensional numerical assessment of the hydrodynamics of the Nile swamps in southern Sudan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 17–26. 相似文献
16.
ABSTRACTRecently, the land surface in the Haihe River basin has changed, influencing the flood processes in the basin. To quantify this impact, seven typical sub-catchments were selected from different hydrological regions of the Haihe River basin for study. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyse for trends, and the non-parametric Pettitt test was adopted to detect any change point in the flood time series. Then, a hydrological model was established to simulate the effects of each potential driving factor on flood peak and volume. It was shown that flood peak and volume time series had decreased significantly, and the change point was around the year 1980. Groundwater depletion was not the main contribution to flood peak (FP) and volume (FV) decrease. In the Shifokou, Mubi and Lengkou sub-catchments, small hydraulic structures are the main driving factors for FP and FV decreasing. In the Xitaiyu, Daomaguan and Fuping sub-catchments, both land-use change and hydraulic structures are the main driving factors. The decreasing percentage decreases with the increase of the flood magnitude. The results provide valuable information for flood simulation and control in the Haihe River basin. 相似文献
17.
Coastal flood risk will likely increase in the future due to urban development, sea-level rise, and potential change of storm surge climatology, but the latter has seldom been considered in flood risk analysis. We propose an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess coastal flood risk at regional scales, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. The framework is composed of two components: a modeling scheme to collect and combine necessary physical information and a formal, Poisson-based theoretical scheme to derive various risk measures of interest. Time-varying risk metrics such as the return period of various damage levels and the mean and variance of annual damage are derived analytically. The mean of the present value of future losses (PVL) is also obtained analytically in three ways. Monte Carlo (MC) methods are then developed to estimate these risk metrics and also the probability distribution of PVL. The analytical and MC methods are theoretically and numerically consistent. A case study is performed for New York City (NYC). It is found that the impact of population growth and coastal development on future flood risk is relatively small for NYC, sea-level rise will significantly increase the damage risk, and storm climatology change can also increase the risk and uncertainty. The joint effect of all three dynamic factors is possibly a dramatic increase of the risk over the twenty-first century and a significant shift of the probability distribution of the PVL towards high values. In a companion paper (Part II), we extend the iDraft to perform probabilistic benefit-cost analysis for various flood mitigation strategies proposed for NYC to avert the potential impact of climate change. 相似文献
18.
Abstract Rivers have been channelized, deepened and constrained by embankments for centuries to increase agricultural productivity and improve flood defences. This has decreased the hydrological connectivity between rivers and their floodplains. We quantified the hydrological regime of a wet grassland meadow prior to and after the removal of river embankments. River and groundwater chemistry were also monitored to examine hydrological controls on floodplain nutrient status. Prior to restoration, the highest river flows (～2 m3 s?1) were retained by the embankments. Under these flow conditions the usual hydraulic gradient from the floodplain to the river was reversed so that subsurface flows were directed towards the floodplain. Groundwater was depleted in dissolved oxygen (mean: 0.6 mg O2 L?1) and nitrate (mean: 0.5 mg NO3 ?-N L?1) relative to river water (mean: 10.8 mg O2 L?1 and 6.2 mg NO3 ?-N L?1, respectively). Removal of the embankments has reduced the channel capacity by an average of 60%. This has facilitated over-bank flow which is likely to favour conditions for improved flood storage and removal of river nutrients by floodplain sediments. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Heal Citation Clilverd, H.M., Thompson, J.R., Heppell, C.M., Sayer, C.D., and Axmacher, J.C., 2013. River–floodplain hydrology of an embanked lowland Chalk river and initial response to embankment removal. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 627–650. 相似文献
19.
AbstractAn artificial neural network, mid- to long-term runoff forecasting model of the Nenjiang basin was established by deciding predictors using the physical analysis method, combined with long-term hydrological and meteorological information. The forecasting model was gradually improved while considering physical factors, such as the main flood season and non-flood season by stage, runoff sources and hydrological processes. The average relative errors in the simulation tests of the prediction model were 0.33 in the main flood season and 0.26 in the non-flood season, indicating that the prediction accuracy during the non-flood season was greater than that in the main flood season. Based on these standards, forecasting accuracy evaluation was conducted by comparing forecasting results with actual conditions: for 2001 to 2003 data, the pass rate of forecasting in the main flood season was 50%, while it was 93% in the non-flood season; for 2001–2010, the respective values were 45% and 72%. The accuracy of prediction was found to decrease as the length of record increases.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis, Associate editor A. ViglioneCitation Li, H.-Y. Tian, L., Wu, Y., and Xie, M., 2013. Improvement of mid- to long-term runoff forecasting based on physical causes: application in Nenjiang basin, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1414–1422. 相似文献
20.
Ana Rita Carrasco Theocharis Plomaritis Johan Reyns Óscar Ferreira Dano Roelvink 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(9):1121-1139
This study evaluates the patterns and effects of relative sea-level rise on the tidal circulation of the basin of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon using a process-based model that is solved on an unstructured mesh. To predict the changes in the lagoon tidal circulation in the year 2100, the model is forced by tides and a static sea level. The bathymetry and the basin geometry are updated in response to sea-level rise for three morphological response scenarios: no bed updating, barrier island rollover, and basin infilling. Model results indicate that sea-level rise (SLR) will change the baseline current velocity patterns inside the lagoon over the ~100-year study period, due to a strong reduction in the area of the intertidal basin. The basin infilling scenario is associated with the most important adjustments of the tidal circulation (i.e., increases in the flood velocities and delays in the ebb tide), together with an increase in the cumulative discharges of the tidal inlets. Under sea-level rise and in the basin infilling scenario, the salt marshes and tidal flats experience increases in the tidal range and current asymmetry. Basin infilling changes the sediment flushing capacity of the lagoon, leading to the attenuation of the flood dominance in the main inlet and the strengthening of the flood dominance in the two secondary inlets. The predictions resulting from these scenarios provide very useful information on the long-term evolution of similar coastal lagoons that experience varying degrees of SLR. This study highlights the need for research focusing on the quantification of the physical and socio-economic impacts of SLR on lagoon systems, thus enabling the development of effective adaptation strategies. 相似文献