共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Abstract Hydrological models are commonly used to perform real-time runoff forecasting for flood warning. Their application requires catchment characteristics and precipitation series that are not always available. An alternative approach is nonparametric modelling based only on runoff series. However, the following questions arise: Can nonparametric models show reliable forecasting? Can they perform as reliably as hydrological models? We performed probabilistic forecasting one, two and three hours ahead for a runoff series, with the aim of ascribing a probability density function to predicted discharge using time series analysis based on stochastic dynamics theory. The derived dynamic terms were compared to a hydrological model, LARSIM. Our procedure was able to forecast within 95% confidence interval 1-, 2- and 3-h ahead discharge probability functions with about 1.40 m3/s of range and relative errors (%) in the range [–30; 30]. The LARSIM model and the best nonparametric approaches gave similar results, but the range of relative errors was larger for the nonparametric approaches. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed Citation Costa, A.C., Bronstert, A. and Kneis, D., 2012. Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 10–25. 相似文献
2.
Abstract The segmentation of flood seasons has both theoretical and practical importance in hydrological sciences and water resources management. The probability change-point analysis technique is applied to segmenting a defined flood season into a number of sub-seasons. Two alternative sampling methods, annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold, are used to construct the new flow series. The series is assumed to follow the binomial distribution and is analysed with the probability change-point analysis technique. A Monte Carlo experiment is designed to evaluate the performance of proposed flood season segmentation models. It is shown that the change-point based models for flood season segmentation can rationally partition a flood season into appropriate sub-seasons. China's new Three Gorges Reservoir, located on the upper Yangtze River, was selected as a case study since a hydrological station with observed flow data from 1882 to 2003 is located 40 km downstream of the dam. The flood season of the reservoir can be reasonably divided into three sub-seasons: the pre-flood season (1 June–2 July); the main flood season (3 July–10 September); and the post-flood season (11–30 September). The results of flood season segmentation and the characteristics of flood events are reasonable for this region. Citation Liu, P., Guo, S., Xiong, L. & Chen, L. (2010) Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 540–554. 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACTIn this paper, a mid- to long-term runoff forecast model is developed using an ideal point fuzzy neural network–Markov (NFNN-MKV) hybrid algorithm to improve the forecasting precision. Combining the advantages of the new fuzzy neural network and the Markov prediction model, this model can solve the problem of stationary or volatile strong random processes. Defined error statistics algorithms are used to evaluate the performance of models. A runoff prediction for the Si Quan Reservoir is made by utilizing the modelling method and the historical runoff data, with a comprehensive consideration of various runoff-impacting factors such as rainfall. Compared with the traditional fuzzy neural networks and Markov prediction models, the results show that the NFNN-MKV hybrid algorithm has good performance in faster convergence, better forecasting accuracy and significant improvement of neural network generalization. The absolute percentage error of the NFNN-MKV hybrid algorithm is less than 7.0%, MSE is less than 3.9, and qualification rate reaches 100%. For further comparison of the proposed model, the NFNN-MKV model is employed to estimate (training and testing for 120-month-ahead prediction) and predict river discharge for 156 months at Weijiabao on the Weihe River in China. Comparisons among the results of the NFNN-MKV model, the WNN model and the SVR model indicate that the NFNN-MKV model is able to significantly increase prediction accuracy.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei 相似文献
4.
Mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting is important to China. Forecasting based on physical causes has become the trend of this field, and recognition of key factors is central to recent development. Here, global sensitivity analysis based on back‐propagation arithmetic was used to calculate the sensitivity of up to 24 factors that affect runoff in the Nenjiang River Basin. The following five indices were found to be key factors for mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting during flood season: Tibetan Plateau B, index of the strength of the East Asian trough, index of the area of the northern hemisphere polar vortex, zonal circulation index over the Eurasian continent and index of the strength of the subtropical high over the western Pacific. The hydrological climate of the study area and the rainfall–runoff laws were then analysed in conjunction with its geographical position and topographic condition. The rationality of the results can be demonstrated from the positive analysis point of view. The results of this study provide a general method for selection of mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting factors based on physical causes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
AbstractThe accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time. 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACTThe wavelet analysis technique was combined in this study with the projection pursuit autoregression (PPAR) model, and a new mid- and long-term runoff forecasting model, the wavelet analysis-based PPAR (PPAR-WA) is proposed, which realizes runoff forecasting from the perspective of the internal mechanism of a sequence. The runoff forecasting of the leading hydropower station in the Li Xianjiang cascade reservoirs in China was carried out to test the performance of the proposed model, and the accuracy and stability of the forecasting results were evaluated and analysed. The results show that the average relative error of the forecasting period can reach 9.6%, and the best relative error is less than 5% in some years. In addition, compared with PPAR, a back-propagation neural network and autoregression moving average model through three evaluation indexes, the results of PPAR-WA have higher accuracy and stronger stability. So, it has a certain value of popularization and application. 相似文献
7.
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1363-1376
AbstractThe concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km2-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km2 to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889 相似文献
8.
Flash floods represent one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. The hydrological analysis of a flash flood event contributes in the understanding of the runoff creation process. This study presents the analysis of some flash flood events that took place in a complex geomorphological Mediterranean River basin. The objective of the present work is to develop the thresholds for a real‐time flash flood forecasting model in a complex geomorphological watershed, based on high‐frequency data from strategically located hydrological and meteorological telemetric stations. These stations provide hourly real‐time data which were used to determine hydrological and meteorological parameters. The main characteristics of various hydrographs specified in this study were the runoff coefficients, lag time, time to peak, and the maximum potential retention. The estimation of these hydrometeorological parameters provides the necessary information in order to successfully manage flash floods events. Especially, the time to peak is the most significant hydrological parameter that affects the response time of an oncoming flash flood event. A study of the above parameters is essential for the specification of thresholds which are related to the geomorphological characteristics of the river basin, the rainfall accumulation of an event, the rainfall intensity, the threshold runoff through karstic area, the season during which the rainfall takes place and the time intervals between the rainstorms that affect the soil moisture conditions. All these factors are combined into a real‐time‐threshold flash flood prediction model. Historical flash flood events at the downstream are also used for the validation of the model. An application of the proposed model is presented for the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
AbstractThis study modified the BTOPMC (Block-wise TOPMODEL with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method) distributed hydrological model to make it applicable to semi-arid regions by introducing an adjustment coefficient for infiltration capacity of the soil surface, and then applied it to two catchments above the dams in the Karun River basin, located in semi-arid mountain ranges in Iran. The application results indicated that the introduced modification improved the model performance for simulating flood peaks generated by infiltration excess overland runoff at a daily time scale. The modified BTOPMC was found to fulfil the need to reproduce important signatures of basin hydrology for water resource development, such as annual runoff, seasonal runoff, low flows and flood flows. However, it was also very clear that effective model use was significantly constrained by the scarcity of ground-gauged precipitation data. Considerable efforts to improve the precipitation data acquisition should precede water resource development planning.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
10.
AbstractClimate change will likely have severe effects on water shortages, flood disasters and the deterioration of aquatic systems. In this study, the hydrological response to climate change was assessed in the Wei River basin (WRB), China. The statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was used to downscale regional climate change scenarios on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and two emissions scenarios. Driven by these scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated and validated to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the WRB. The results showed that the average annual runoff in the periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 would increase by 12.4% and 45%, respectively, relative to the baseline period 1961–2008. Low flows would be much lower, while high flows would be much higher, which means there would be more extreme events of droughts and floods. The results exhibited consistency in the spatial distribution of runoff change under most scenarios, with decreased runoff in the upstream regions, and increases in the mid- and lower reaches of the WRB.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang 相似文献
11.
The Natural Resource Conservation Service – Curve Number (NRCS-CN) methodology is a widely used tool for estimating surface runoff, which is of prime importance in hydrological engineering, agricultural planning and management, environmental impact assessment, flood forecasting, and others fields. This article reviews the methodology and associated hydrological models used for runoff estimation along with their advantages and limitations. Furthermore, discussion focuses on the potential applications of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for estimating hydrological variables, such as rainfall, soil moisture and CN required for the NRCS-CN methodology, as well as future research and opportunities for improved runoff estimation at the macro scale.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis 相似文献
12.
A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43?500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons.
EDITOR Z.W. KundzewiczASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann 相似文献
13.
Takahiro Sayama Go Ozawa Takahiro Kawakami Seishi Nabesaka Kazuhiko Fukami 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):298-312
Abstract Pakistan has suffered a devastating flood disaster in 2010. In the Kabul River basin (92 605 km2), large-scale riverine and flash floods caused destructive damage with more than 1100 casualties. This study analysed rainfall–runoff and inundation in the Kabul River basin with a newly developed model that simulates the processes of rainfall–runoff and inundation simultaneously based on two-dimensional diffusion wave equations. The simulation results showed a good agreement with an inundation map produced based on MODIS for large-scale riverine flooding. In addition, the simulation identified flash flood-affected areas, which were confirmed to be severely damaged based on a housing damage distribution map. Since the model is designed to be used even immediately after a disaster, it can be a useful tool for analysing large-scale flooding and to provide supplemental information to agencies for relief operations. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Sayama, T., Ozawa, G., Kawakami, T., Nabesaka, S. and Fukami, K., 2012. Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 298–312. 相似文献
14.
Abstract The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph. Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149. 相似文献
15.
ABSTRACTWith the rapid economic development and urbanization in Taihu Basin (eastern China), the river system has decayed and the connectivity of rivers and lakes has weakened, resulting in frequent floods. The impact of changes in river system structure on hydrological processes in the plain river network area was analysed against a background of urbanization. An indicator system was built to describe the quantitative, morphological and spatial structure of the river system. Analysis of the change in annual average and extreme water levels revealed the influencing mechanism of the changes in river system structure on the hydrological processes. The results indicate a decreasing tendency in the density of the river system in the study area, with a reduction in water surface ratio by about 20% in the past 50 years. Since the 1960s, the maximum and annual average water levels have increased. The degree of change in the mean monthly, annual lowest and annual highest water levels was great, with that in the non-flood season being higher than in the flood season. The decrease in the number of rivers directly reduced the storage and adjustable capacity of the basin. 相似文献
16.
J. A. RODIER 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):531-544
Abstract The management of water resources requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface and groundwater resources, and an assessment of the influence of man on the hydrological regime. For small water courses regional estimates can be made from representative basins which offer guidelines (1) for the computation of mean annual flow and in some cases for the determination of the statistical distribution of the annual flow; (2) for the computation of the 10-year flood maximum discharge and volume. An example concerning the tropical African Sahel is given. From a general study of the daily precipitation, a simple rainfall/runoff model used on a daily basis and calibrated on data from representative basins, and also the direct comparison of results from 55 representative basins, statistical distribution curves were established for annual runoff based on mean annual precipitation and the geomorphological characteristics of the basins. Another example concerning tropical Africa west of Congo presents a methodology for the computation of the 10-year flood (maximum discharge and volume). The systematic study of 60 representative basins makes it possible to plot the runoff coefficient R/P as a function of basin climate, mean slope and soil permeability. Other curves are used to determine the time of rise and the base time of the hydrograph as a function of the basin area and the mean slope. The experimental basin is a good tool for the assessment of the influence of man on hydrological parameters. An example shows the influence of land use on the regression between annual precipitation and annual runoff. 相似文献
17.
Abstract This study applies the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to decompose the unit hydrograph, thereby generating parsimonious reparameterizations of the unit hydrograph. A model compression method is then employed to significantly compress the unit hydrograph requiring that fewer coefficients be estimated. Moreover, a wavelet-based linearly constrained least mean squares (WLCLMS) algorithm is also used to estimate on-line the wavelet coefficients of the unit hydrograph. The updated wavelet coefficients of the unit hydrograph, convoluted with effective rainfall input in the wavelet domain, allow for accurate prediction of one-step-ahead runoff in the time domain. The proposed approach allows the unit hydrographs to vary in time and accurately predicts runoff from a basin in Taiwan, thus making it highly promising for flood forecasting. 相似文献
18.
Mikołaj Piniewski Frank Voss Ilona Bärlund Tomasz Okruszko Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):737-754
Abstract The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754. 相似文献
19.
AbstractQuantifying the reliability of distributed hydrological models is an important task in hydrology to understand their ability to estimate energy and water fluxes at the agricultural district scale as well the basin scale for water resources management in drought monitoring and flood forecasting. In this context, the paper presents an intercomparison of simulated representative equilibrium temperature (RET) derived from a distributed energy water balance model and remotely-sensed land surface temperature (LST) at spatial scales from the agricultural field to the river basin. The main objective of the study is to evaluate the use of LST retrieved from operational remote sensing data at different spatial and temporal resolutions for the internal validation of a distributed hydrological model to control its mass balance accuracy as a complementary method to traditional calibration with discharge measurements at control river cross-sections. Modelled and observed LST from different radiometric sensors located on the ground surface, on an aeroplane and a satellite are compared for a maize field in Landriano (Italy), the agricultural district of Barrax (Spain) and the Upper Po River basin (Italy). A good ability of the model in reproducing the observed LST values in terms of mean bias error, root mean square error, relative error and Nash-Sutcliffe index is shown.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten 相似文献
20.
复杂河道洪水预报系统研究——以淮河王家坝至小柳巷区间流域为例 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
随着社会经济的快速发展,洪水灾害造成的损失日益严重.洪水预报作为一项重要的防洪非工程措施,对防洪、抗洪工作起着至关重要的作用.淮河洪水危害的严重性和洪水演进过程的复杂性使得淮河洪水预报系统的研究长期以来受到高度重视.本文以王家坝至小柳巷区间流域为例,以河道洪水演算为主线,采用新安江三水源模型进行子流域降雨径流预报,概化具有行蓄洪区的干流河道,进行支流与干流、行蓄洪区与干流的洪水汇流耦合计算,采用实时更新的基于多元回归的方法确定水位流量关系,并以上游站点降雨径流预报模型提供的流量作为上边界条件、以下游站点的水位流量关系作为下边界条件,结合行蓄洪调度模型,建立具有行蓄洪区的河道洪水预报系统,再与基于K-最近邻(KNN)的非参数实时校正模型耦合,建立淮河中游河道洪水预报系统.采用多年资料模拟取得了较好的预报效果,并以2003和2007年大洪水为例进行检验,模拟结果精度较高,也证明了所建预报系统的合理性和适用性. 相似文献