共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Abstract A procedure to identify sets of operational rules for gated spillways for optimal flood routing management of artificial reservoirs is proposed. The flood retention storage of a dam having a gated flood spillway is divided into 15 sub-storages whose surface elevations are identified as critical levels. The most suitable operation set for the downstream conditions and for the dam can be chosen from many derived operation sets. The spillway gates are operated in an optimum way for any floods from very small magnitudes to the probable maximum flood (PMF), without having to forecast the actual magnitude of the incoming flood hydrograph. Decision floods are formed by dividing the PMF into 15 sub-hydrographs by 5 and 10% increments in the ranges 5–50% and 50–100% of the PMF, respectively. Many potential spillway gate openings from closed to fully open are chosen initially. As a result of a series of routing simulations of 15 decision floods, a set of 15 gate openings is determined such that all floods from very small magnitudes to the PMF may be routed without overtopping the dam crest. Next, a few more 15-stage operation rules are determined such that the gate openings of the initial stages are decreased as their critical levels are increased stepwise, with the objective of attenuating smaller floods more effectively and releasing higher outflows for larger floods close to and including the PMF. The developed model is applied to the Catalan and Aslantas dams in Turkey, both of which serve for flood mitigation as well as hydropower generation. Citation Haktanir, T., Citakoglu, H., and Acanal, N., 2013. Fifteen-stage operation of gated spillways for flood routing management through artificial reservoirs. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1013–1031. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari 相似文献
2.
AbstractData-based mechanistic (DBM) models can offer a parsimonious representation of catchment dynamics. They have been shown to provide reliable accurate flood forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work, the DBM methodology is applied to forecast flash floods in a small Alpine catchment. Compared to previous DBM modelling studies, the catchment response is rapid. The use of novel radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts based on analogues to drive the DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. The characterization of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and a framework for its representation illustrated.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACTTaking a representative catchment of the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, this research evaluated sub-daily rainstorm variability and its potential effects on flood processes based on an integrated approach of the HEC-HMS model and design storm hyetographs. The results show that the intensities of rainfall on sub-daily scale are getting more extreme. The annual maximum 1-, 2- and 3-hour rainstorms followed significant upward trends with increases of 0.32, 0.43 and 0.44 mm per year, respectively, while the annual maximum 6-, 12- and 24-h events had non-significant rising trends. The detected significant trends in short-duration rainstorms were then used to redesign storm hyetographs to drive the HEC-HMS model, the results show that these changes in short-duration rainstorm characteristics would increase the flood peak discharge and flood volume. These findings indicate that regional flood control capabilities must be improved to manage the adverse impacts of rainfall variation under changing environments. 相似文献
4.
G. Kienitz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):539-540
Abstract There has been a trend in recent years towards the development and popularity of physically-based deterministic models. However, the application of such models is not without difficulties. This paper investigates the usefulness of a conceptual single-event model for simulating floods from catchments covering a wide variety of climatic and physiographic areas. The model has been calibrated on a group of catchments and the calibrated parameter values related to physical catchment indices. The resulting quantitative relationships are assessed with respect to their value for estimating the parameter values of the model when calibration is not possible. The results indicate that the technique is likely to provide flood estimations for medium sized catchments (5–150 km2) that are more reliable than several flood estimation methods currently in use in South Africa. 相似文献
5.
Abstract Results of a comprehensive synoptic-hydrological analysis of major flood events in the Negev (1964–2007) are presented. A low threshold for major flood data was set to be the 10-year recurrence interval of peak discharge and/or flood volume magnitude. Altogether, 75 major flood events, or 133 hydrometrically monitored floods, were extracted. These events were categorized according to synoptic oriented classes by verification of the paired databases of: (a) floods in the study area, and (b) synoptic systems over the Eastern Mediterranean. For the study area, two of the most frequent flood-generating synoptic systems are the autumn Red Sea Trough (RST), 31%, and winter cyclones, 49%. The entire RST series consists of 24 major flood events (55 floods). The synoptic definition was corroborated by analysing the specific form of flood hydrographs and the ratio of flood volume to peak discharge. Regional analysis shows increased contribution of RST events southwards from 30% to 90% with a respective decrease in the number of cyclone events. By comparing two 22-year sub-periods (1964–1985 and 1986–2007), a positive trend in the frequency and magnitudes of RST flood events is discerned. There is also an increased tendency for the occurrence of cyclone floods. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Shentsis, I., Laronne J.B., and Alpert, P., 2012. Red Sea Trough flood events in the Negev, Israel (1964–2007). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 42–51. 相似文献
6.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre Guy Schumann Paul D. Bates Jim E. Freer Keith J. Beven 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):364-376
Abstract Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed. Citation Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G., Bates, P. D., Freer, J. E. & Beven, K. J. (2010) Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(3), 364–376. 相似文献
7.
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1363-1376
AbstractThe concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km2-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km2 to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889 相似文献
8.
Abstract Seasonal design floods which consider information on seasonal variation are very important for reservoir operation and management. The seasonal design flood method currently used in China is based on seasonal maximum (SM) samples and assumes that the seasonal design frequency is equal to the annual design frequency. Since the return period associated with annual maximum floods is taken as the standard in China, the current seasonal design flood cannot satisfy flood prevention standards. A new seasonal design flood method, which considers dates of flood occurrence and magnitudes of the peaks (runoff), was proposed and established based on copula function. The mixed von Mises distribution was selected as marginal distribution of flood occurrence dates. The Pearson Type III and exponential distributions were selected as the marginal distribution of flood magnitude for annual maximum flood series and peak-over-threshold samples, respectively. The proposed method was applied at the Geheyan Reservoir, China, and then compared with the currently used seasonal design flood methods. The case study results show that the proposed method can satisfy the flood prevention standard, and provide more information about the flood occurrence probabilities in each sub-season. The results of economic analysis show that the proposed design flood method can enhance the floodwater utilization rate and give economic benefits without lowering the annual flood protection standard. Citation Chen, L., Guo, S. L., Yan, B. W., Liu, P. & Fang, B. (2010) A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1264–1280. 相似文献
9.
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to understand the causal factors controlling the relationship between flood peaks and volumes in a regional context. A case study is performed based on 330 catchments in Austria ranging from 6 to 500 km2 in size. Maximum annual flood discharges are compared with the associated flood volumes, and the consistency of the peak–volume relationship is quantified by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. The results indicate that climate-related factors are more important than catchment-related factors in controlling the consistency. Spearman rank correlation coefficients typically range from about 0.2 in the high alpine catchments to about 0.8 in the lowlands. The weak dependence in the high alpine catchments is due to the mix of flood types, including long-duration snowmelt, synoptic floods and flash floods. In the lowlands, the flood durations vary less in a given catchment which is related to the filtering of the distribution of all storms by the catchment response time to produce the distribution of flood producing storms.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
10.
Abstractt Spatio-temporal storm properties have a large impact on catchment hydrological response. The sensitivity of simulated flash floods to convective rain-cell characteristics is examined for an extreme storm event over a 94 km2 semi-arid catchment in southern Israel. High space–time resolution weather radar data were used to derive and model convective rain cells that then served as input into a hydrological model. Based on alterations of location, direction and speed of a major rain cell, identified as the flooding cell for this case, the impacts on catchment rainfall and generated flood were examined. Global sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the most important factors affecting the flash flood peak discharge at the catchment outlet. We found that the flood peak discharge could be increased three-fold by relatively small changes in rain-cell characteristics. We assessed that the maximum flash flood magnitude that this single rain cell can produce is 175 m3/s, and, taking into account the rest of the rain cells, the flash flood peak discharge can reach 260 m3/s.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Morin, E. and Yakir, H., 2013. Hydrological impact and potential flooding of convective rain cells in a semi-arid environment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1275–1284. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841315 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACTThe southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
12.
AbstractThe accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time. 相似文献
13.
Abstract The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application. Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314. 相似文献
14.
Abstract Hydrological models are commonly used to perform real-time runoff forecasting for flood warning. Their application requires catchment characteristics and precipitation series that are not always available. An alternative approach is nonparametric modelling based only on runoff series. However, the following questions arise: Can nonparametric models show reliable forecasting? Can they perform as reliably as hydrological models? We performed probabilistic forecasting one, two and three hours ahead for a runoff series, with the aim of ascribing a probability density function to predicted discharge using time series analysis based on stochastic dynamics theory. The derived dynamic terms were compared to a hydrological model, LARSIM. Our procedure was able to forecast within 95% confidence interval 1-, 2- and 3-h ahead discharge probability functions with about 1.40 m3/s of range and relative errors (%) in the range [–30; 30]. The LARSIM model and the best nonparametric approaches gave similar results, but the range of relative errors was larger for the nonparametric approaches. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed Citation Costa, A.C., Bronstert, A. and Kneis, D., 2012. Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 10–25. 相似文献
15.
Oliver Wetter Christian Pfister Rolf Weingartner Jürg Luterbacher Tom Reist Jürg Trösch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):733-758
Abstract The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m 3 s‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m 3 s ‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features. Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758. 相似文献
16.
Ana Carolina Sarmento Buarque Namrata Bhattacharya-Mis Maria Clara Fava Felipe Augusto Arguello de Souza Eduardo Mario Mendiondo 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(7):1075-1083
ABSTRACTThe city of São Carlos, state of São Paulo, Brazil, has a historical coexistence between society and floods. Unplanned urbanization in this area is a representative feature of how Brazilian cities have developed, undermining the impact of natural hazards. The Gregório Creek catchment is an enigma of complex dynamics concerning the relationship between humans and water in Brazilian cities. Our hypothesis is that social memory of floods can improve future resilience. In this paper we analyse flood risk dynamics in a small urban catchment, identify the impacts of social memory on building resilience and propose measures to reduce the risk of floods. We applied a socio-hydrological model using data collected from newspapers from 1940 to 2018. The model was able to elucidate human–water processes in the catchment and the historical source data proved to be a useful tool to fill gaps in the data in small urban basins. 相似文献
17.
AbstractOver the past century, land-use has changed in southeast Queensland, and when coupled with climatic change, the risk of flooding has increased. This research aims to examine impacts of climate and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland, Australia. A rainfall–runoff model, RORB, was calibrated and validated using observed flood hydrographs for one rural and one urbanized catchment, for 1961–1990. The validated model was then used to generate flood hydrographs using projected rainfall based on two climate models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), for 2016–2045. Projected daily rainfall for the two contrasting periods was used to derive adjustment factors for a given frequency of occurrence. Two land-use change scenarios were used to evaluate likely impacts. Based on the projected rainfall, the results showed that, in both catchments, future flood magnitudes are unlikely to increase for large flood events. Extreme land-use change would significantly impact flooding in the rural catchment, but not the urbanized catchment.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei 相似文献
18.
R. Brázdil L. Řezníčková H. Valášek M. Havlíček P. Dobrovolný E. Soukalová 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):468-485
Abstract Floods from the middle part of the River Morava (eastern Czech Republic) are considered over the course of the past three centuries, the study being based on data derived from documentary evidence (1691–1880), measured peak water stages, Hk (1881–1920) and peak discharges, Qk (1916–2009), evaluated with respect to their N-year return period (HN and QN ). Changes in land use and water management (water reservoirs, channel modifications) are discussed, as are factors influencing runoff conditions in the Morava catchment. Decadal synthesis of flood series identifies the highest flood activity in the decades of 1911–1920 and 1961–1970 (11 floods each), 1831–1840, 1891–1900, 1901–1910 and 1931–1940 (10 floods each). Uncertainty in this series is related to some incompleteness of documentary data in the pre-1881 period. Very low flood frequency occurred in the 1990s–2000s, although the most disastrous floods were recorded in this particular period (July 1997 at Q 100 and March/April 2006 at Q 20–Q 50). Changes in flood frequency correspond partly to long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Citation Brázdil, R., ?ezní?ková, L., Valá?ek, H., Havlí?ek, M., Dobrovolný, P., Soukalová, E., ?ehánek, T. & Skokanová, H. (2011) Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 468–485. 相似文献
19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract The effect of land-use change on the flood frequency curve (FFC) in a natural catchment is analysed. To achieve this, a simple methodology for the derivation of FFCs in land-use change scenarios is proposed. The adopted methodology, using a stochastic model in Monte Carlo simulation of FFCs, was found to provide a useful framework for detecting changes in flood magnitudes in both pre- and post-fire conditions. In particular, the importance of the antecedent soil moisture condition in the determination of the flood frequency distribution was analysed. The analysis of FFCs for pre- and post-fire conditions shows an increase in the average value of Curve Number and a decrease in the catchment time lag. The derivation of FFCs shows a clear increase in flood quantiles. For the post-fire conditions, the FFC exhibits higher quantiles of the peak discharges showing a reduction in frequency of occurrence. This variation is more significant for low-return period quantiles than for high-return period quantiles. The results of the catchment studies reported here support the hypothesis that the hydrological response of the watershed changes as a result of fire, especially during the first years following a fire event. 相似文献
20.
ABSTRACT In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses. 相似文献