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1.
Abstract A procedure to identify sets of operational rules for gated spillways for optimal flood routing management of artificial reservoirs is proposed. The flood retention storage of a dam having a gated flood spillway is divided into 15 sub-storages whose surface elevations are identified as critical levels. The most suitable operation set for the downstream conditions and for the dam can be chosen from many derived operation sets. The spillway gates are operated in an optimum way for any floods from very small magnitudes to the probable maximum flood (PMF), without having to forecast the actual magnitude of the incoming flood hydrograph. Decision floods are formed by dividing the PMF into 15 sub-hydrographs by 5 and 10% increments in the ranges 5–50% and 50–100% of the PMF, respectively. Many potential spillway gate openings from closed to fully open are chosen initially. As a result of a series of routing simulations of 15 decision floods, a set of 15 gate openings is determined such that all floods from very small magnitudes to the PMF may be routed without overtopping the dam crest. Next, a few more 15-stage operation rules are determined such that the gate openings of the initial stages are decreased as their critical levels are increased stepwise, with the objective of attenuating smaller floods more effectively and releasing higher outflows for larger floods close to and including the PMF. The developed model is applied to the Catalan and Aslantas dams in Turkey, both of which serve for flood mitigation as well as hydropower generation. Citation Haktanir, T., Citakoglu, H., and Acanal, N., 2013. Fifteen-stage operation of gated spillways for flood routing management through artificial reservoirs. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1013–1031. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari 相似文献
2.
Numerous dams have been constructed in the midstream and downstream regions of Lancang River, which form a complex cascade reservoirs system. The safety of dams is critical for water resource management of the whole system. To check the safety of dams, this study used the MIKE 11 model to simulate flood routing along the Lancang River from Xiaowan dam to Jinghong dam under extreme situations of 100-, 500-, 1000-, 5000-, and 10,000-year design floods throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system. The design flood events used as the input for the MIKE 11 model contains the design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs and corresponding flood hydrographs of the intermediate areas. The design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs was obtained using the Equal Frequency Factor Method, and the corresponding flood hydrograph of the intermediate areas was obtained using the Equivalent Frequency Regional Composition Method. The results show that all dams are safe for the 100-, 500-, 1000-, and 5000-year design flood situations throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system, whereas the Manwan and Jinghong dams have a risk of overtopping under a 10,000-year design flood. The curves showing the relationship between the highest water level and return period for the dams are also presented. 相似文献
3.
Maritza Liliana Arganis-Juárez Margarita Preciado-Jiménez Óscar A. Fuentes-Mariles Alejandro Mendoza-Reséndiz Ramón Domínguez-Mora Faustino De Luna-Cruz 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(8):934-947
To design and review the operation of spillways, it is necessary to estimate design hydrographs, considering their peak flow, shape and volume. A hybrid method is proposed that combines the shape of the design hydrograph obtained with the UNAM Institute of Engineering Method (UNAMIIM) with the peak flow and volume calculated from a bivariate method. This hybrid method is applied to historical data of the Huites Dam, Sinaloa, Mexico. The goal is to estimate return periods for the maximum discharge flows (that account for the damage caused downstream) and the maximum levels reached in the dam (measure of the hydrological dam safety) corresponding to a given spillway and its management policy. Therefore, to validate the method, the results obtained by the flood routing of the 50-year hydrograph are compared with those obtained by the flood routing of the three largest historical floods. Both maximum flow and elevation were in the range of values observed within 37.5–75 years corresponding to the length of the historical record. 相似文献
4.
As a supplementary method to the conventional flood frequency analysis based on annual peak flows, we propose an approach in this paper to infer the flood frequency distribution on quarterly and semi-annual time scale, which are then converted to annual time scale to obtain the floods corresponding to return periods in unit of year. Two criteria for test of data independence, namely, minimum 7 and 15-day interval between two consecutive peak flows, are tested. The proposed approach was applied to Des Moines River at Fort Dodge, Iowa, USA using its 62 years of observation daily flows. The results show that the estimated floods for given return periods from quarter-annual data series are in general higher than the corresponding estimated floods from semi-annual data series, which is further larger than estimated floods from annual peak flows. The floods estimated from semi-annual data series agree well with the results of previous US Geological Survey study. 相似文献
5.
R. Domínguez M. 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):460-478
Abstract The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478. 相似文献
6.
A Bayesian approach for estimating extreme flood probabilities with upper-bounded distribution functions 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Wilson Fernandes Mauro Naghettini Rosângela Loschi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(8):1127-1143
Some recent research on fluvial processes suggests the idea that some hydrological variables, such as flood flows, are upper-bounded.
However, most probability distributions that are currently employed in flood frequency analysis are unbounded to the right.
This paper describes an exploratory study on the joint use of an upper-bounded probability distribution and non-systematic
flood information, within a Bayesian framework. Accordingly, the current PMF maximum discharge appears as a reference value
and a reasonable estimate of the upper-bound for maximum flows, despite the fact that PMF determination is not unequivocal
and depends strongly on the available data. In the Bayesian context, the uncertainty on the PMF can be included into the analysis
by considering an appropriate prior distribution for the maximum flows. In the sequence, systematic flood records, historical
floods, and paleofloods can be included into a compound likelihood function which is then used to update the prior information
on the upper-bound. By combining a prior distribution describing the uncertainties of PMF estimates along with various sources
of flood data into a unified Bayesian approach, the expectation is to obtain improved estimates of the upper-bound. The application
example was conducted with flood data from the American river basin, near the Folsom reservoir, in California, USA. The results
show that it is possible to put together concepts that appear to be incompatible: the deterministic estimate of PMF, taken
as a theoretical limit for floods, and the frequency analysis of maximum flows, with the inclusion of non-systematic data.
As compared to conventional analysis, the combination of these two concepts within the logical context of Bayesian theory,
contributes an advance towards more reliable estimates of extreme floods. 相似文献
7.
Most rivers in Italy are segmented by dams that need rehabilitation because of (1) safety requirements by increasingly risk-averse societies, (2) changes in the downstream river and riparian system after dams building, (3) poor initial design at the time of completion and (4) modified priorities of watershed management. Safe design of flood spillways is a major concern, and requires to cope with low frequency flood hazard. One must estimate flood figures with high return periods (R ⩾ 1000–10,000 years) but statistical methods involve large uncertainties because of the short length of the available records. This paper investigates the return period of the design flood of existing spillways RS of large dams in Italy. We used re-normalized flood frequency approach and regionalization using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. The estimation of the site specific index flood is carried out by simple scaling with basin area at the regional level. The result show that 55% (245) of the 448 examined dams are equipped by spillway with RS > 10,000; and 71% (315) of the dams have RS > 1000. Conversely, 29% (130) of the dams display RS < 1000 years, lower than acceptable hazard. The spillway of 14% (62) of the dams has RS < 100 years, indicating potential exceedance of spillways capacity. Reservoir routing may dampen the outflow hydrograph, but one should carefully account for the need of achieving accurate dam safety assessment of these dams based on site specific investigations, also accounting for global change forcing. 相似文献
8.
Abstract The new Swedish guidelines for the estimation of design floods for dams and spillways are presented, with emphasis on high-hazard dams. The method is based on a set of regional design precipitation sequences, rescaled for basin area, season and elevation above sea level, and a full hydrological model. A reservoir operation strategy is also a fundamental component of the guidelines. The most critical combination of flood generating factors is searched by systematically inserting the design precipitation sequence into a ten year climatological record, where the initial snowpack has been replaced by a statistical 30-year snowpack. The new guidelines are applicable to single reservoir systems as well as more complex hydroelectric schemes, and cover snowmelt floods, rain floods and combinations of the two. In order to study the probabilities of the computed floods and to avoid regional inconsistencies, extensive comparisons with observed floods and frequency analyses have been carried out. 相似文献
9.
The models of physiographic inundation and flood routing for channel network were used in this study to analyse the influence of the Tainan Scientific Base Industrial Park (TSBIP) and Feng-Hua detention ponds on the inundated potential, inundated volume, flood damage, and flood stage of peak flow along the Yen-Shui creek in 2-day flood for the 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods, respectively. The computed results show that the TSBIP detention ponds are able to reduce the inundated area and flood damage. However, the decrease in inundated area is not obvious for the 50-year return-period flood. Construction of the Feng-Hua detention pond resulted in a significant decrease in the flood stage along the Yen-Shui creek in the downstream reach. Moreover, the decrease in peak flow and lag of time-to-peak become increasingly evident in the downstream direction for the 2- and 10-year return-period events. For the 50-year return period, the lag of time-to-peak is not apparent, but the decrease in peak flow is still noticeable. In respect to the performance of detention ponds, the slopes of hydrographs in the rising and recession segments are smoother than those without detention ponds. Meanwhile, the shapes of peak become flatter if the detention ponds are installed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
11.
Flood hazard mapping using synthesis hydraulic and geomorphic properties at watershed scale 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Alireza Motevalli Mehdi Vafakhah 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(7):1889-1900
The occurrence of natural phenomena such as floods has caused serious consequences for human societies. The simulation of flood hazard maps and its depth in a river is one of the most complex processes in hydrology. In fact both geomorphological and hydraulic procedures for deriving the flood hazard maps and depth are imperfect at watershed scale. In this study, a combination of both procedures, using a probabilistic approach is used. Flood inundation maps for 2-, 10-, 25-,50- and 100-return period floods using flood routine within HEC-RAS in combination of Arc-GIS and topographic wetness index (TWI) map were produced. TWI threshold was identified using a maximum likelihood method in order to produce flood prone areas and calibrated over the reach of Zirab City. The correlation between TWI threshold and the flood depth was carried out and simple linear regression developed for various return periods. The resulting regression model is used in order to create flood hazard maps with various return periods at watershed scale. 相似文献
12.
We build copula function-based joint distribution models for the annual maximum flood peaks of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake, to analyze the coincidence probabilities, using scenarios that combine with the impoundment of three Gorges, define influencing indexes and relative contribution rates on flood coincidence at varying frequencies. The study shows the probabilities for coincidence of floods with 1000, 100, and 10-year return periods in both Yangtze main stem and Poyang Lake are respectively 0.02, 0.19 and 2.87%, with higher coincidence probabilities for shorter return periods; when 1000-year flood occurs in the Yangtze, the probabilities for Poyang Lake to encounter flood of the 1000, 100, or 10-year magnitude are higher than 16.08, 42.48 or 74.77% respectively; Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence is affected by operation of the hydraulic engineering. The lowering of flood peaks caused by the Three Gorges impoundment and regulation of the lake have respectively reduced the probabilities of Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence by about 7.0 and 1.97%, with average relative contribution rates ? 33.82 and ? 17.1%; influenced by hydrological projects in Poyang basin, variations in Poyang’s inflow flood have displayed an average contribution rate of 20.4% for the negative effect on extreme (P < 5% or P > 90%) flood coincidence, while having a positive contribution rate of 38.2% on floods of other return periods. The results can help increase our understanding of flood coincidence, and support flood control efforts in Poyang Lake; its analytical approach may also be useful to other applications of copula functions. 相似文献
13.
修建在河流支流入汇口处的水利工程,同时受干、支流洪水共同作用,其防洪水位不但与洪水组合特性有关,还与洪水、水利工程行洪的耦合关系有关.已有采用设计洪水重现期对应的特征洪水组合,或者直接采用经验洪水组合进行调洪计算得到防洪设计水位的方法无法有效反映洪水与水利工程的相互作用.本文结合防洪标准的本质,利用Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法对修建在支流入汇口处的水利工程的防洪设计水位进行计算,并以珠江流域西江支流郁江广西桂平航运枢纽水闸为例展开研究.结果表明:Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法可以有效考虑干、支流洪水组合特性及其与水利工程行洪的耦合关系,以其计算得到的防洪设计水位唯一且可保证达到防洪标准的要求,可有效克服利用洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位存在的不确定性;在干、支流洪水共同作用下,以设计洪水重现期的不同特征组合计算得到的防洪设计水位相差非常大,且与达到防洪标准要求的防洪设计水位相比完全偏离了合理的误差范围,不宜以设计洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位;利用经验洪水组合计算难以合理反映不同工程的洪水及工程特性.研究成果可为修建在支流入汇口处受干、支流洪水共同影响的水利工程防洪设计提供更合理的理论依据和思路. 相似文献
14.
Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns,causes and implications 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50 years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel 相似文献
15.
ABSTRACTSeries of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from 11 approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to return periods of approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 years. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedence probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson-Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the lifetime to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded, and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of the central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor I. Nalbantis 相似文献
16.
Complex hydrological events such as floods always appear to be multivariate events that are characterized by a few correlated variables. A complete understanding of these events needs to investigate joint probabilistic behaviours of these correlated variables. The lognormal distribution is one of frequently selected candidates for flood‐frequency analysis. The multivariate lognormal distribution will serve as an important tool for analysing a multivariate flood episode. This article presents a procedure for using the bivariate lognormal distribution to describe the joint distributions of correlated flood peaks and volumes, and correlated flood volumes and durations. Joint distributions, conditional distributions, and the associated return periods of these random variables can be readily derived from their marginal distributions. The approach is verified using observed streamflow data from the Nord river basin, located in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The theoretical distributions show a good fit to observed ones. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Abstract Seasonal design floods which consider information on seasonal variation are very important for reservoir operation and management. The seasonal design flood method currently used in China is based on seasonal maximum (SM) samples and assumes that the seasonal design frequency is equal to the annual design frequency. Since the return period associated with annual maximum floods is taken as the standard in China, the current seasonal design flood cannot satisfy flood prevention standards. A new seasonal design flood method, which considers dates of flood occurrence and magnitudes of the peaks (runoff), was proposed and established based on copula function. The mixed von Mises distribution was selected as marginal distribution of flood occurrence dates. The Pearson Type III and exponential distributions were selected as the marginal distribution of flood magnitude for annual maximum flood series and peak-over-threshold samples, respectively. The proposed method was applied at the Geheyan Reservoir, China, and then compared with the currently used seasonal design flood methods. The case study results show that the proposed method can satisfy the flood prevention standard, and provide more information about the flood occurrence probabilities in each sub-season. The results of economic analysis show that the proposed design flood method can enhance the floodwater utilization rate and give economic benefits without lowering the annual flood protection standard. Citation Chen, L., Guo, S. L., Yan, B. W., Liu, P. & Fang, B. (2010) A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1264–1280. 相似文献
18.
Regional flood frequency and spatial patterns analysis in the Pearl River Delta region using L-moments approach 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
Tao Yang Chong-Yu Xu Quan-Xi Shao Xi Chen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(2):165-182
The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has one of the most complicated deltaic drainage systems with probably the highest density of
crisscross-river network in the world. This article presents a regional flood frequency analysis and recognition of spatial
patterns for flood-frequency variations in the PRD region using the well-known index flood L-moments approach together with
some advanced statistical test and spatial analysis methods. Results indicate that: (1) the whole PRD region is definitely
heterogeneous according to the heterogeneity test and can be divided into three homogeneous regions; (2) the spatial maps
for annual maximum flood stage corresponding to different return periods in the PRD region suggest that the flood stage decreases
gradually from the riverine system to the tide dominated costal areas; (3) from a regional perspective, the spatial patterns
of flood-frequency variations demonstrate the most serious flood-risk in the coastal region because it is extremely prone
to the emerging flood hazards, typhoons, storm surges and well-evidenced sea-level rising. Excessive rainfall in the upstream
basins will lead to moderate floods in the upper and middle PRD region. The flood risks of rest parts are identified as the
lowest in entire PRD. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, the stationarity and serial-independence are tested prior
to frequency analysis. The characterization of the spatial patterns of flood-frequency variations is conducted to reveal the
potential influences of climate change and intensified human activities. These findings will definitely contribute to formulating
the regional development strategies for policymakers and stakeholders in water resource management against the menaces of
frequently emerged floods and well-evidenced sea level rising. 相似文献
19.
《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(6):715-728
Rainfall-induced floods may trigger intense sediment transport on erodible catchments, especially on the Loess Plateau in China, which in turn modifies the floods. However, the role of sediment transport in modifying floods has to date remained poorly understood. Concurrently, traditional hydrodynamic models for rainfall-induced floods typically ignore sediment transport, which may lead to inaccurate results for highly erodible catchments. Here, a two-dimensional (2D) coupled shallow water hydro-sediment-morphodynamic (SHSM) model, based on the Finite Volume Method on unstructured meshes and parallel computing, is proposed and applied to simulate rainfall-induced floods in the Zhidan catchment on the Loess Plateau, Shaanxi Province, China. For six historical floods of return periods up to 2 years, the numerical results compare well with observations of discharge hydrographs at the catchment outlet. The computed runoff-sediment yield relation is quantitatively reasonable as compared with other catchments under similar geographical conditions. It is revealed that neglecting sediment transport leads to underestimation of peak discharge of the flood by 14%–45%, whilst its effect on the timing of the peak discharge varies for different flood events. For 18 design floods with return periods of 10–500 years, sediment transport may lead to higher peak discharge by around 9%–15%. The temporal pattern of concentrated rainfall in a short period may lead to a larger exponent value of the power function for the runoff-sediment yield relation. The current finding leads us to propose that incorporating sediment transport in rainfall-induced flood modeling is warranted. The SHSM model is applicable to flood and sediment modeling at the catchment scale in support of risk management and water and soil management. 相似文献
20.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(15):1867-1892
ABSTRACTThe flood peak is the dominating characteristic in nearly all flood-statistical analyses. Contrary to the general assumptions of design flood estimation, the peak is not closely related to other flood characteristics. Differentiation of floods into types provides a more realistic view. Often different parts of the probability distribution function of annual flood peaks are dominated by different flood types, which raises the question how shifts in flood regimes would modify the statistics of annual maxima. To answer this, a distinction into five flood types is proposed; then, temporal changes in flood-type frequencies are investigated. We show that the frequency of floods caused by heavy rain has increased significantly in recent years. A statistical model is developed that simulates peaks for each event type by type-specific peak–volume relationships. In a simulation study, we show how changes in frequency of flood event type lead to changes in the quantiles of annual maximum series. 相似文献