Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow     

Jason?PatskoskiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  A.?Sankarasubramanian 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1065-1083

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.  相似文献   

Ressi experimental catchment: Ecohydrological research in the Italian pre-Alps     

Giulia Zuecco  Chiara Marchina  Ylenia Gelmini  Anam Amin  H. J. van Meerveld  Daniele Penna  Marco Borga 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14095

Ressi is a small (2.4 ha) forested catchment located in the Italian pre-Alps. The site became an experimental catchment to investigate the water fluxes in the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum and the impact of vegetation on runoff generation in 2012. The elevation of the catchment ranges from 598 to 721 m a.s.l. and the climate is humid temperate. The bedrock consists of rhyolites and dacites; the soil is a Cambisol. The catchment is covered by a dense forest, dominated by beech, chestnut, maple, and hazel trees. The field set up includes measurements of the rainfall in an open area, streamflow at the outlet, soil moisture at various depths and locations, and depth to water table in six piezometers at a 5- or 10-min interval. Samples of precipitation, stream water, shallow groundwater and soil water are collected monthly for tracer analysis (stable isotopes (²H and ¹⁸O), electrical conductivity and major ions), and during selected rainfall–runoff events to determine the contribution of the various sources to runoff. Since 2017, soil and plant water samples have been collected to determine the sources of tree transpiration. Data collected in the period 2012–2016 are publicly available. Data collection is ongoing, and the data set is expected to be updated on an annual basis to include the most recent measurements.  相似文献   

DISOLV: A Python Package for the Interpretation of Borehole Dilution Tests     

Sarah L. Collins  Marco Bianchi 《Ground water》2020,58(5):805-812

Single borehole dilution tests (SBDTs) are an inexpensive but effective technique for hydrogeological characterization of hard-rock aquifers. We present a freely available, easy-to-use, open-source Python package, DISOLV, for plotting, analyzing, and modeling SBDT data. DISOLV can significantly reduce the time spent interpreting field data by helping to identify flowing fractures intersecting the borehole and estimate the corresponding flow rates. DISOLV is successfully benchmarked against two analytical solutions. We also present an example application to real data collected in a borehole in a crystalline basement aquifer in southern India.  相似文献   

Ambient vibration tools to validate the rigid diaphragm assumption in the seismic assessment of buildings     

Daniele Sivori  Marco Lepidi  Serena Cattari 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(2):194-211

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Characterization of Frequency and Aggregation of the Antarctic Krill (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis>) Using Acoustics     

Seok-Gwan?Choi  Eun-A?Yoon  Doo-Hae?An  Sangdeuk?Chung  Jaebong?Lee  Kyounghoon?LeeEmail author 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(4):667-677

In this study, the dB difference and characteristics of krill swarms inhabiting Subarea 48.1, which includes the west and south of the South Shetland Island and the Elephant Island peripheries, were estimated to distinguish Antarctic krill, using acoustics. From April 13 to 24, 2016, acoustic data were collected along 24 survey lines using the frequencies 38 and 120 kHz, and middle trawling was performed at 7 stations. Using the difference between the dB values of two volume backscattering strength (Sv) frequencies (38 and 120 kHz), a clear acoustic distinction could be made between Antarctic krill (4.9 to 12.0 dB) and fish (?4.0 to ?0.2 dB). The distributions and mean Sv of krill swarms in the Elephant Island peripheries and south of South Shetland Island were higher than those in the west of South Shetland Island. The mean length/ height ratio of krill swarms in the west of the South Shetland Island (64.5) was higher than that in the south (35.9) and the Elephant Island peripheries (33.8), with the length of the aggregations exceeding their height. Most krill swarms were distributed between the surface layer (less than 10 m below sea level) and within 200 m of water depth. These results are expected to serve as baseline data for evaluating krill density and biomass by distinguishing them from fish, using acoustics.  相似文献   

Assessing conservation practices in Amalacaxco Gorge (Izta-Popo National Park,Central Mexico) using fallout ~(137)Cs and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL)     

MU?OZ-SALINAS E  CASTILLO M 《山地科学学报》2018,(3)

This study aims to assess conservation practices in Izta-Popo National Park(Central Mexico) by evaluating the mechanisms of sediment transfer. We applied a methodology based on fallout ~(137)Cs and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) analysis. This was tested in the upper catchment of Amalacaxco Gorge, selected for being one of the sectors of the park in which man-made actions have been implemented in last decades to favor forest growth in the alpine grassland and to reduce the effect of water runoff. We quantified the ~(137)Cs activity using gamma and beta spectrometry of fine sediment grains extracted from the surface of parcels of 0.4 m2 in areas of natural forest, natural alpine grassland, alpine grassland with conservation practices, ravines and trails. In general, ~(137)Cs values increases as local slope decreases as it was expected. The natural forest is the most stable area in terms of soil erosion and sediment accumulation and, mean ~(137)Cs activity was taken as reference to assess cumulative zones, with higher ~(137)Cs values and erosive, with lower. We found that trails are accumulative surfaces but in other areas, erosion predominates. Man-made ditches, trenches and afforestation in the alpine grassland have higher ~(137)Cs values than thenatural grassland, which indicates that conservation practices are limiting the sediment transfer from hillslopes to channels, however, soil retention is less than in the natural grassland. Additionally, we evaluated the luminescence(OSL) values obtained from samples extracted from the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into different sectors of the study area to assess the grade of resetting of fluvial materials. These luminescence results indicated that the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into the natural forest and alpine grassland is bleached more efficiently than the sediment transported in the alpine grassland with conservation practices. Results of fallout ~(137)Cs and luminescence strongly suggest that man-made actions in this part of the Izta-Popo National Park are dramatically modifying the natural mechanisms of sediment transfer and favoring soil erosion. We conclude that made ditches, trenches and afforestation are not an effective conservation practice in Amalacaxco Gorge because they are promoting soil erosion instead of reducing it.  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲优质储集层预测          下载免费PDF全文

桑林翔  刘军  王贵文  王苏天  李全  张云龙 《古地理学报》2020,22(6):1053-1064

针对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡风南地区三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲砂岩物性空间变化大、优质储集层(孔隙度大于7.4%,渗透率大于0.05×10^-3μm²)预测难的问题,在沉积岩石学、地震沉积学以及地震反演和解释理论指导下,综合利用测井、岩心和三维地震等资料开展了高精度层序地层划分、沉积微相描述和优质储集层地震反演研究。建立了风南井区四级层序地层格架,明确了扇三角洲多期水进水退的充填过程,指出SSQ3和SSQ5是优质储集层的发育层系;识别出扇三角洲平原分流河道、河道间和扇三角洲前缘水下分流水道、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相,指出扇三角洲平原是优质储集层发育相带;通过应用高分辨层序地层纵向边界和沉积相横向边界约束,进行分层相控叠后地震波阻抗反演,提升储集层预测精度,在SSQ3和SSQ5预测5个优质储集层发育区,提出3口井的井位建议,钻探均获工业油流。  相似文献   

Cretaceous tectonic evolution of the Neo-Tethys in Central Iran:Evidence from petrology and age of the Nain-Ashin ophiolitic basalts     

Tahmineh Pirnia  Emilio Saccani  Ghodrat Torabi  Marco Chiari  Spela Gorican  Edoardo Barbero 《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(1):57-81

The Nain and Ashin ophiolites consist of Mesozoic melange units that were emplaced in the Late Cretaceous onto the continental basement of the Central-East Iran microcontinent(CEIM).They largely consist of serpentinized peridotites slices;nonetheless,minor tectonic slices of sheeted dykes and pillow lavas-locally stratigraphically associated with radiolarian cherts-can be found in these ophiolitic melanges.Based on their whole rock geochemistry and mineral chemistry,these rocks can be divided into two geochemical groups.The sheeted dykes and most of the pillow lavas show island arc tholeiitic(IAT)affinity,whereas a few pillow lavas from the Nain ophiolites show calc-alkaline(CA)affinity.Petrogenetic modeling based on trace elements composition indicates that both IAT and CA rocks derived from partial melting of depleted mantle sources that underwent enrichment in subduction-derived components prior to melting.Petrogenetic modeling shows that these components were represented by pure aqueous fluids,or sediment melts,or a combination of both,suggesting that the studied rocks were formed in an arc-forearc tectonic setting.Our new biostratigraphic data indicate this arc-forearc setting was active in the Early Cretaceous.Previous tectonic interpretations suggested that the Nain ophiolites formed,in a Late Cretaceous backarc basin located in the south of the CEIM(the so-called Nain-Baft basin).However,recent studies showed that the CEIM underwent a counter-clockwise rotation in the Cenozoic,which displaced the Nain and Ashin ophiolites in their present day position from an original northeastward location.This evidence combined with our new data and a comparison of the chemical features of volcanic rocks from different ophiolites around the CEIM allow us to suggest that the Nain-Ashin volcanic rocks and dykes were formed in a volcanic arc that developed on the northern margin of the CEIM during the Early Cretaceous in association with the subduction,below the CEIM,of a Neo-Tethys oceanic branch that was existing between the CEIM and the southern margin of Eurasia.As a major conclusion of this paper,a new geodynamic model for the Cretaceous evolution of the CEIM and surrounding Neo-Tethyan oceanic basins is proposed.  相似文献   

Analysis of seafloor backscatter strength dependence on the survey azimuth using multibeam echosounder data     

Xavier?LurtonEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Dimitrios?Eleftherakis  Jean-Marie?Augustin 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2018,39(1-2):183-203

The sediment backscatter strength measured by multibeam echosounders is a key feature for seafloor mapping either qualitative (image mosaics) or quantitative (extraction of classifying features). An important phenomenon, often underestimated, is the dependence of the backscatter level on the azimuth angle imposed by the survey line directions: strong level differences at varying azimuth can be observed in case of organized roughness of the seabed, usually caused by tide currents over sandy sediments. This paper presents a number of experimental results obtained from shallow-water cruises using a 300-kHz multibeam echosounder and specially dedicated to the study of this azimuthal effect, with a specific configuration of the survey strategy involving a systematic coverage of reference areas following “compass rose” patterns. The results show for some areas a very strong dependence of the backscatter level, up to about 10-dB differences at intermediate oblique angles, although the presence of these ripples cannot be observed directly—neither from the bathymetry data nor from the sonar image, due to the insufficient resolution capability of the sonar. An elementary modeling of backscattering from rippled interfaces explains and comforts these observations. The consequences of this backscatter dependence upon survey azimuth on the current strategies of backscatter data acquisition and exploitation are discussed.  相似文献   

Conceptualizing catchment storage dynamics and nonlinearities          下载免费PDF全文

Marco P. Maneta  Chris Soulsby  Sylvain Kuppel  Doerthe Tetzlaff 《水文研究》2018,32(21):3299-3303

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