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1.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):953-970
Abstract The 5000 km2 topographically closed Estancia basin in central New Mexico has been the focus of several palaeoclimatic studies based on changes in the level of late Pleistocene Lake Estancia. A large, unknown volume of surface runoff and groundwater from adjacent mountains contributed to the hydrological balance during highstands and lowstands. The US Department of Agriculture hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and the US Geological Survey groundwater flow model MODFLOW, with the LAK2 package, were used in this study to estimate runoff and water balance under present climate. A Geographic Information Systems (GIS) interface was used for SWAT, digitized data were applied for soils and vegetation, and limited streamflow data were used to obtain an approximate calibration for the model. Simulated streamflow is generally within 30% of observed values, and simulated runoff for the entire basin is about 8% of the annual inflow volume needed to support lowstands of the former Lake Estancia. Results from the combined models suggest application to other palaeoclimate investigations in semiarid lake basins. 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACTThe impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
3.
A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43?500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons.
EDITOR Z.W. KundzewiczASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann 相似文献
4.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(1):138-151
ABSTRACTMost catchments in tropical regions are ungauged and data deficient, complicating the simulation of water quantity and quality. Yet, developing and testing hydrological models in data-poor regions is vital to support water management. Here, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict stream runoff in Halda Basin in Bangladesh. While the calibrated model’s performance was satisfactory (R2 = 0.80, NSE = 0.71), the model was unable to track the extreme low flow peaks due to the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall which may not be fully captured by using data from one rainfall gauging station. Groundwater delay time, baseflow alpha factor and curve number were the most sensitive parameters influencing model performance. This study improves understanding of the key processes of a catchment in a data-poor, monsoon driven, small river basin and could serve as a baseline for scenario modelling for future water management and policy framework. 相似文献
5.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):588-601
Abstract The Biobío River basin is of high strategic importance for Chilean development, at both the regional and the national levels. For this reason, advances in the general understanding of, and in the capacity to describe and predict, in a spatially explicit way, the impact of climate and anthropogenic forcing on the hydrology of the Biobío basin are urgently needed. The work presented here attempts to set the basis for future modelling applications within the Biobío basin by analysing the applicability of a readily available modelling tool, the SWAT model, to one of its sub-basins. Modelling results show that the model performs well in most parts of the study basin. The SWAT model application for the Vergara basin confirms that SWAT is a useful tool and can already be used to make a preliminary assessments of the potential impacts of land-use and climate changes on basin hydrology. 相似文献
6.
Soils affect the distribution of hydrological processes by partitioning precipitation into different components of the water balance. Therefore, understanding soil-water dynamics at a catchment scale remains imperative to future water resource management. In this study, the value of hydropedological insights was examined to calibrate a processes-based model. Soil morphology was used as soft data to assist in the calibration of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model at five different catchment scales (48, 56, 174, 674, and 2421 km2) in the Sabie River catchment, South Africa. The aim of this study was to calibrate the SWAT+ model to accurately simulate long-term monthly streamflow predictions as well as to reflect internal soil hydrological processes using a procedure focusing on hydropedology as a calibration tool in a multigauge system. Results indicated that calibration improved streamflow predictions where R2 improved by 2%–8%. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) improved from negative correlations to values exceeding 0.5 at four of the five catchment scales compared to the uncalibrated model. Results confirm that soil mapping units can be calibrated individually within SWAT+ to improve the representation of hydrological processes. Particularly, the spatial linkage between hydropedology and hydrological processes, which is captured within the soil map of the catchment, can be adequately reflected within the model simulations after calibration. This research will lead to an improved understanding of hydropedology as soft data to improve hydrological modelling accuracy. 相似文献
7.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations. 相似文献
8.
A. H. SCHUMANN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):519-528
Abstract Conceptual semi-distributed hydrological models are developed for a limited consideration of spatial heterogeneity of hydrological characteristics within a river basin. This heterogeneity can be described by area distribution functions of hydrological characteristics which can be estimated in a most effective way by a Geographical Information System (GIS). It is shown how the application of a GIS can support the development and the calibration of a conceptual hydrological model. GIS information is used to establish the criteria for sub-division of the river basin and for estimation of model structures (especially for further horizontal divisions of each basin into more homogeneous parts). That information is also used for estimation of basin characteristics and their differences between sub-basins as a support for parameter calibration by optimization. The methodology presented can be used for the development of a model structure on an objective basis and for model calibration which considers the physical explanation of model parameters. The proposed method was successfully applied to a river basin within the Mosel basin (Germany). 相似文献
9.
AbstractThe impact of fire on daily discharges from two mountainous basins located in the permafrost region of Eastern Siberia, the Vitimkan (969 km2) and Vitim (18 200 km2) rivers, affected by fire over 78% and 49% of their areas, respectively, in 2003, was investigated. The results of hydrological and meteorological data analysis suggest that the Vitimkan River basin had a rapid and profound hydrological response to wildfire in 2003 expressed through a 41% (133 mm) increase of summer flow. Conversely, the larger Vitim River basin showed no significant changes in discharge after the fire. The parameters of the process-based hydrological model Hydrograph were estimated for pre-fire conditions. The results of runoff simulations conducted for the continuous pre-fire periods of 1966–2002 and 1970–2002 for the Vitimkan and Vitim river basins, respectively, on a daily time step, showed satisfactory agreement with the observed flow series of both basins. Significant underestimation of precipitation and its poor representativeness for mountainous watersheds was revealed as the main cause of observed and simulated flow discrepancies, especially for high flood events. The set of dynamic parameters was developed based on data analysis and post-fire landscape changes as derived from a literature review. The model was applied to investigate the processes in the soil column and their effect on runoff formation during the post-fire period. The new set of model parameters implied the intensification of soil thaw, reduction of infiltration rate and evapotranspiration, and increase of upper subsurface flow fraction in summer flood events following the fire. According to modelling results, the post-fire thaw depth exceeded the pre-fire thaw depth by 0.4–0.7 m. Total evapotranspiration reduced by 40% in summer months, while surface flow increased almost 2.5 times during maximum flood events. 相似文献
10.
Sitotaw Z. Yirdaw Kenneth R. Snelgrove Frank R. Seglenieks Clement O. Agboma Eric D. Soulis 《水文研究》2009,23(23):3391-3400
Earlier efforts have been geared towards modelling the hydrological water balance of the Mackenzie River basin and its sub‐basins using a coupled land surface–hydrological model for the Canadian cold region known as WATCLASS. The goal of this current study is to effectively inter‐compare the resulting total water storage anomalies estimated from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) satellite analysis with those estimated from the atmospheric‐based water balance approach as well as the model output from WATCLASS over the 1 · 8 × 106 km2 Mackenzie River basin in Canada. Since the success of the parameter estimation stage of the coupled land surface–hydrological model, WATCLASS over this large catchment, was entirely based on a goodness of fit between the simulated and observed flows, it is often desirable to assess the reliability of the generated state variables prior to concluding on the overall efficiency of this model in reproducing the relevant hydrological processes over this region. A major challenge here lies in finding suitable dataset with which this comparison can be made to further assess the ability of the model in accurately reproducing other mass fluxes. The outcome of this inter‐comparison reveals the potential application of the GRACE‐based approach as a veritable tool required for the closure of the hydrological water balance of the Mackenzie River basin as well as serving as a dependable source of data for the calibration of traditional hydrological models. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
Abstract This study evaluated the hydrological significance of mountain regions, comparing them with the lowlands of the Ebro River basin (northeast Iberian Peninsula). It was based on records obtained from measuring stations. An altitude of 1000 m above mean sea level was adopted as the criterion for distinguishing between lowland and mountain areas. We analysed 12 sub-basins whose rivers flow directly into the River Ebro, and which covered 66% of the total surface area, 91% of the mountain area and accounted for 77% of total annual runoff. For the River Ebro basin, we found that the mean precipitation depth, the runoff volume per unit of surface area, and the runoff coefficient were all greater in the mountains than in the adjacent lowlands, with respective differences of 70%, 180% and 60%. These results and the particular fragility of the Mediterranean mountain ecosystems confirm the mountain regions of the Ebro basin as strategic zones for hydrological and territorial planning. Citation López, R. & Justribó, C. (2010) The hydrological significance of mountains: a regional case study, the Ebro River basin, northeast Iberian Peninsula. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 223–233. 相似文献
12.
Hydrological model comparison and assessment: criteria from catchment scales and temporal resolution
ABSTRACTThis study examines the performance of three hydrological models, namely the artificial neural network (ANN) model, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning-D (HBV-D) model, and the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) over the upper reaches of the Huai River basin. The assessment is done by using databases of different temporal resolution and by further examining the applicability of SWIM for different catchment sizes. The results show that at monthly scale the performance of the ANN model is better than that of HBV-D and SWIM. The ANN model can be applied at any temporal scale as it establishes an artificial precipitation–runoff relationship for various time scales by only using monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff data. However, at daily scale the performance of both HBV-D and SWIM are similar or even better than the ANN model. In addition, the performance of SWIM at a small catchment size (less than 10 000 km2) is much better than at a larger catchment size. In view of climate change modelling, HBV-D and SWIM might be integrated in a dynamical atmosphere-water-cycle modelling rather than the ANN model due to their use of observed physical links instead of artificial relations within a black box.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes 相似文献
13.
M.E. Grismer 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):878-900
Abstract Recent developments in hydrological modelling of river basins are focused on prediction in ungauged basins, which implies the need to improve relationships between model parameters and easily-obtainable information, such as satellite images, and to test the transferability of model parameters. A large-scale distributed hydrological model is described, which has been used in several large river basins in Brazil. The model parameters are related to classes of physical characteristics, such as soil type, land use, geology and vegetation. The model uses two basin space units: square grids for flow direction along the basin and GRU—group response units—which are hydrological classes of the basin physical characteristics for water balance. Expected ranges of parameter values are associated with each of these classes during the model calibration. Results are presented of the model fitting in the Taquari-Antas River basin in Brazil (26 000 km2 and 11 flow gauges). Based on this fitting, the model was then applied to the Upper Uruguay River basin (52 000 km2), having similar physical conditions, without any further calibration, in order to test the transferability of the model. The results in the Uruguay basin were compared with recorded flow data and showed relatively small errors, although a tendency to underestimate mean flows was found. 相似文献
14.
Mikołaj Piniewski Frank Voss Ilona Bärlund Tomasz Okruszko Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):737-754
Abstract The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754. 相似文献
15.
Simulation of snowmelt runoff in ungauged basins based on MODIS: a case study in the Lhasa River basin 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Linghua Qiu Jinjun You Fei Qiao Dingzhi Peng 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1577-1585
It is theoretically and practically significant to conduct snowmelt runoff simulations and hydrological research for high-elevation regions. The Lhasa River basin, an ungauged basin, is a typical alpine headwater region where snowmelt runoff contributes significantly to its stream flow. In this study, the snowmelt period, defined by the snow cover curves obtained at different altitudinal zones based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Digital Elevation Model data, occurred from March 6 to July 12 in the basin. The snowmelt processes were simulated with the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in 2002 and 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ) were 0.86 and 0.87 for calibration and validation, respectively, and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients were both 0.80, which indicate reasonable performances in simulating hydrological processes in the Lhasa River basin. The simulated snowmelt at altitudes below 5,000 m accounts for most of the snowmelt. And the simulated snowmelt runoff contributed 3–6 % to the total runoff. The sensitivity of individual parameters was analysed and ranked as follows: α and γ > C S > C R > T crit . In short, the SRM based on MODIS remotely sensed data performed well for the ungauged Lhasa River basin. 相似文献
16.
Use of remote sensing,GIS and C++ for soil erosion assessment in the Shakkar River basin,India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Rupesh Jayaram Patil Shailesh Kumar Sharma Sanjay Tignath Aribam Priya Mahanta Sharma 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(2):217-231
Soil is an essential resource for human livelihoods. Soil erosion is now a global environmental crisis that threatens the natural environment and agriculture. This study aimed to assess the annual rate of soil erosion using distributed information for topography, land use and soil, with a remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) approach and comparison of simulated with observed sediment loss. The Shakkar River basin, situated in the Narsinghpur and Chhindwara districts of Madhya Pradesh, India, was selected for this study. The universal soil loss equation (USLE) with RS and GIS was used to predict the spatial distribution of soil erosion occurring in the study area on a grid-cell basis. Thematic maps of rainfall erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), topographic factor (LS), crop/cover management factor (C), and conservation/support practice factor (P) were prepared using annual rainfall data, soil map, digital elevation model (DEM) and an executable C++ program, and a satellite image of the study area in the GIS environment. The annual rate of soil erosion was estimated for a 15-year period (1992–2006) and was found to vary between 6.45 and 13.74 t ha?1 year?1, with an average annual rate of 9.84 t ha?1 year?1. The percentage deviation between simulated and observed values varies between 2.68% and 18.73%, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.874. 相似文献
17.
Abstract The Baker basin (27 000 km2) is located in one of the most pristine and remote areas of the planet. Its hydrological regime is poised to undergo dramatic changes in the near future due to hydropower development and climate change. The basin contains the second-largest lake in South America, and part of a major icefield. This study documents the natural baseline of the Baker River basin, discusses the main hydrological modes and analyses the potential for sustainable management. Annual precipitation varies several-fold from the eastern Patagonian steppes to the North Patagonian Icefield. The westernmost sub-basins are strongly governed by glacier melt with a peak discharge in the austral summer (January–March). The easternmost sub-basins have a much more seasonal response governed by quicker snowmelt in spring (November–December), while they exhibit low flows typical for semi-arid regions during summer and autumn. Topography, vegetation and wetlands may also influence streamflow. The strong spatio-temporal gradients and variability highlight the need for further monitoring, particularly in the headwaters, especially given the severe changes these basins are expected to undergo. The great diversity of hydrological controls and climate change pose significant challenges for hydrological prediction and management. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Dussaillant, J.A., Buytaert, W., Meier, C., and Espinoza, F. 2012. Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1530–1542. 相似文献
18.
AbstractThis paper develops an algorithm for computing spatially-distributed monthly potential evaporation (PE) over a mountainous region, the Lhasa River basin in China. To develop the algorithm, first, correlation analysis of different meteorological variables was conducted. It was observed that PE is significantly correlated with vapour pressure and temperature differences between the land surface and the atmosphere. Second, the Dalton model, which was developed based on the mass transfer mechanism, was modified by including the influence of the related meteorological variables. Third, the influence of elevation on monthly temperature, vapour pressure and wind velocity was analysed, and functions for extending these meteorological variables to any given altitude were developed. Fourth, the inverse distance weighting method was applied to integrate the extended meteorological variables from five stations adjacent to and within the Lhasa River basin. Finally, using the modified Dalton model and the integrated meteorological variables, we computed the spatially-distributed monthly PE. This study indicated that spatially-distributed PE can be obtained using data from sparse meteorological stations, even if only one station is available; the results show that in the Lhasa River basin PE decreases when elevation increases. The new algorithm, including the modified model and the method for spatially extending meteorological variables can provide the basic inputs for distributed hydrological models.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
19.
AbstractThe combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year. 相似文献
20.
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1363-1376
AbstractThe concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km2-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km2 to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889 相似文献