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1.
Abstract The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph. Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149. 相似文献
2.
Abstract Intermittent rivers have a specific hydrological behaviour which also influences water quality dynamics. The objective of this work was to model the flow and water quality dynamics of a coastal Mediterranean intermittent river using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2005). Flow, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus transport were simulated on the Vène experimental catchment, France. The model was sequentially calibrated at sub-catchment scale and validated both at sub-catchment and catchment scales. A procedure for building the data records for the point sources is presented. The results indicate that, while the model produces good results for flow simulation, its performance for sediment transport is less satisfactory. This in turn impacts on the nutrient transport module. The reasons behind these shortcomings are analysed, taking into account the length of the data records, their distribution and the equations used in the SWAT model. The need for a thorough multi-objective model validation is illustrated. Citation Chahinian, N., Tournoud, M.-G., Perrin, J.-L. & Picot, B. (2011) Flow and nutrient transport in intermittent rivers: a modelling case-study on the Vène River using SWAT 2005. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 268–287. 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACTTraditionally, hydrological models are only calibrated to reproduce streamflow regime without considering other hydrological state variables, such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Limited studies have been performed on constraining the model parameters, despite the fact that the presence of a large number of parameters may provide large degree of freedom, resulting in equifinality and poor model performance. In this study, a multi-objective optimization approach is adopted, and both streamflow and soil moisture data are calibrated simultaneously for an experimental study basin in the Saskatchewan Prairies in western Canada. The results of this study show that the multi-objective calibration improves model fidelity compared to the single objective calibration. Moreover, the study demonstrates that single objective calibration performed against only streamflow can fairly mimic the streamflow hydrograph but does not yield realistic estimation of other fluxes such as evapotranspiration and soil moisture (especially in deeper soil layers). 相似文献
4.
AbstractThe impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978–2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. ZhangCitation Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T., 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1095–1108. 相似文献
5.
ABSTRACTGoodness-of-fit measures are important for an objective evaluation of runoff model performance. The Kling-Gupta efficiency (RKG), which has been introduced as an improvement of the widely used Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, considers different types of model errors, namely the error in the mean, the variability, and the dynamics. The calculation of RKG is implicitly based on the assumptions of data linearity, data normality, and the absence of outliers. In this study, we propose a modification of RKG as an efficiency measure comprising non-parametric components, i.e. the Spearman rank correlation and the normalized flow–duration curve. The performances of model simulations for 100 catchments using the new measure were compared to those obtained using RKG based on a number of statistical metrics and hydrological signatures. The new measure resulted overall in better or comparable model performances, and thus it was concluded that efficiency measures with non-parametric components provide a suitable alternative to commonly used measures. 相似文献
6.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):953-970
Abstract The 5000 km2 topographically closed Estancia basin in central New Mexico has been the focus of several palaeoclimatic studies based on changes in the level of late Pleistocene Lake Estancia. A large, unknown volume of surface runoff and groundwater from adjacent mountains contributed to the hydrological balance during highstands and lowstands. The US Department of Agriculture hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and the US Geological Survey groundwater flow model MODFLOW, with the LAK2 package, were used in this study to estimate runoff and water balance under present climate. A Geographic Information Systems (GIS) interface was used for SWAT, digitized data were applied for soils and vegetation, and limited streamflow data were used to obtain an approximate calibration for the model. Simulated streamflow is generally within 30% of observed values, and simulated runoff for the entire basin is about 8% of the annual inflow volume needed to support lowstands of the former Lake Estancia. Results from the combined models suggest application to other palaeoclimate investigations in semiarid lake basins. 相似文献
7.
Abstract One decade after the first publications on multi-objective calibration of hydrological models, we summarize the experience gained so far by underlining the key perspectives offered by such approaches to improve parameter identification. After reviewing the fundamentals of vector optimization theory and the algorithmic issues, we link the multi-criteria calibration approach with the concepts of uncertainty and equifinality. Specifically, the multi-criteria framework enables recognition and handling of errors and uncertainties, and detection of prominent behavioural solutions with acceptable trade-offs. Particularly in models of complex parameterization, a multi-objective approach becomes essential for improving the identifiability of parameters and augmenting the information contained in calibration by means of both multi-response measurements and empirical metrics (“soft” data), which account for the hydrological expertise. Based on the literature review, we also provide alternative techniques for dealing with conflicting and non-commeasurable criteria, and hybrid strategies to utilize the information gained towards identifying promising compromise solutions that ensure consistent and reliable calibrations. Citation Efstratiadis, A. & Koutsoyiannis, D. (2010) One decade of multi-objective calibration approaches in hydrological modelling: a review. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 58–78. 相似文献
8.
AbstractIn this study, a hydrological model and spatial technologies have been employed to assess water availability in the Mat River basin, southern Mizoram, India. Furthermore, the results obtained from the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, satellite data and GIS tools were utilized to identify the hydropower potential in the basin. Thirty three sites with hydropower potential were identified within 147 km2 of the Mat River basin. A total of 3039, 1127 and 805 kW can be harnessed with 50, 75 and 90% dependability, respectively. The study revealed that the hydropower potential of a river basin can be correctly assessed by employing a digital elevation model, stream network data and a hydrological model, such as the SWAT model, within a GIS framework.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
9.
Modelling sediment and total phosphorus export from a lowland catchment: comparing sediment routing methods 
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下载免费PDF全文 Shenglan Lu Brian Kronvang Joachim Audet Dennis Trolle Hans Estrup Andersen Hans Thodsen Ann van Griensven 《水文研究》2015,29(2):280-294
Bank erosion is the main source of suspended sediment (SS) and diffuse total phosphorus (TP) in many lowland catchments. This study compared a physically based sediment routing method (Physical method), which distinguishes between stream bed and bank erosion, with the original sediment routing method (Original method) within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2009, for simulating SS and TP losses from a lowland catchment. A SWAT model was set up for the lowland River Odense catchment in Denmark and calibrated against observed stream flow and phosphate (PO4) loads. On the basis of an initial calibration of hydrological and PO4 parameters, the SWAT model with the Original method (Original model) and the SWAT model with the Physical method (Physical model) were calibrated separately against observed SS and TP loads. The SWAT model simulated daily stream flow well but underestimated PO4 loads. The Physical model simulated daily SS and TP better than the Original model. The simulated contribution of bank erosion to SS in the Physical model (99%) was close to the estimated contribution from in situ erosion measurements (90–94%). Compared with the Original method, the Physical method is not only more conceptually correct but also improves model performance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Haykel Sellami Sihem Benabdallah Isabelle La Jeunesse Marnik Vanclooster 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1415-1429
ABSTRACTClimate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in the 2050s. For both hydrological indicators, uncertainty magnitude increased when moving from dry to wet periods. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate model uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet periods, whereas in dry periods hydrological parametric uncertainty became more important.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae 相似文献
11.
Mikołaj Piniewski Frank Voss Ilona Bärlund Tomasz Okruszko Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):737-754
Abstract The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754. 相似文献
12.
Assessment of the effectiveness of a multi-site stochastic weather generator on hydrological modelling in the Red Deer River watershed,Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
ABSTRACTTo improve the convergence of multiple-site weather generators (SWGs) based on the brute force algorithm (MBFA), a genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed to search the overall optimal correlation matrix. Precipitation series from weather generators are used as input to the hydrological model, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), to generate runoff over the Red Deer watershed, Canada for further runoff analysis. The results indicate that the SWAT model using SWG-generated data accurately represents the mean monthly streamflow for most of the months. The multi-site generators were capable of better representing the monthly streamflow variability, which was notably underestimated by the single-site version. In terms of extreme flows, the proposed method reproduced the observed extreme flow with smaller bias than MBFA, while the single-site generator significantly underestimated the annual maximum flows due to its poor capability in addressing partial precipitation correlations. 相似文献
13.
Pilot-point based multi-objective calibration in a surface–subsurface distributed hydrological model
Abstract In this study, a fully-coupled surface–subsurface, distributed, physics-based hydrological model was calibrated using the pilot-point method. A minimum variance field rule was included in the objective function to regularize the extensive calibration exercise that included 74 parameters (72 associated with pilot points and two spatially-invariant channel parameters). Because the overland and vadose zone systems are not in permanent hydrological connection, the information contained in the observation points may not be accessible by the pilot points at all times, rendering them insensitive to the observations and hindering the calibration process. An analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of parameter sensitivities was done to explore how the information contained in local observations spreads from the observation points to the pilot points, where parameter values are identified. The results show that the channel flow time series is valuable to identify the parameters at all pilot-point locations, indicating that the information in channel flow propagates to the entire basin. However, information in soil moisture measurements is of local extent and thus only valuable to identify the parameters at locations close to the observation point. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor I. Nalbantis Citation Maneta, M.P. and Wallender, W.W., 2013. Pilot-point based multi-objective calibration in a surface–subsurface distributed hydrological model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 390–407. 相似文献
14.
Xiaoying Yang Qun Liu Yi He Xingzhang Luo Xiaoxiang Zhang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(3):959-972
Despite the significant role of precipitation in the hydrological cycle, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the impacts of the temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on the performance of SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) models in large-sized river basins. In this study, both daily and hourly rainfall observations at 28 rainfall stations were used as inputs to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin. Study results have demonstrated that the SWAT model with hourly rainfall inputs performed better than the model with daily rainfall inputs in daily streamflow simulation, primarily due to its better capability of simulating peak flows during the flood season. The sub-daily SWAT model estimated that 58 % of streamflow was contributed by baseflow compared to 34 % estimated by the daily model. Using the future daily and 3-h precipitation projections under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 scenario as inputs, the sub-daily SWAT model predicted a larger amount of monthly maximum daily flow during the wet years than the daily model. The differences between the daily and sub-daily SWAT model simulation results indicated that temporal rainfall resolution could have much impact on the simulation of hydrological process, streamflow, and consequently pollutant transport by SWAT models. There is an imperative need for more studies to examine the effects of temporal rainfall resolution on the simulation of hydrological and water pollutant transport processes by SWAT in river basins of different environmental conditions. 相似文献
15.
ABSTRACTWe evaluated precipitation estimates, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42V7), CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis), GHCN-D (Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Version 3.24), and Daymet, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The suitability and quality of TRMM, CFSR and Daymet in forcing the SWAT-based hydrological model was examined by means of model calibration. A calibrated TRMM-driven model slightly overestimated streamflow, while a calibrated CFSR-driven model performed worst. The Daymet-driven model performance was as good as the GHCN-D-driven model in reproducing observations. In addition, the temperature was far less sensitive compared with precipitation in driving SWAT. TRMM 3B42V7 showed great potential in streamflow simulation. The results and findings from this study provide new insights into the suitability of precipitation products for hydrological and climate impact studies in large basins, particularly those in typical climates and physiographic settings similar to the Midwestern USA. 相似文献
16.
ABSTRACTReliable simulations of hydrological models require that model parameters are precisely identified. In constraining model parameters to small ranges, high parameter identifiability is achieved. In this study, it is investigated how precisely model parameters can be constrained in relation to a set of contrasting performance criteria. For this, model simulations with identical parameter samplings are carried out with a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to three contrasting catchments in Germany (lowland, mid-range mountains, alpine regions). Ten performance criteria including statistical metrics and signature measures are calculated for each model simulation. Based on the parameter identifiability that is computed separately for each performance criterion, model parameters are constrained to smaller ranges individually for each catchment. An iterative repetition of model simulations with successively constrained parameter ranges leads to more precise parameter identifiability and improves model performance. Based on these results, a more consistent handling of model parameters is achieved for model calibration. 相似文献
17.
Globally, the pressures of expanding populations, climate change, and increased energy demands are motivating significant investments in re-operationalizing existing reservoirs or designing operating policies for new ones. These challenges require an understanding of the tradeoffs that emerge across the complex suite of multi-sector demands in river basin systems. This study benchmarks our current capabilities to use Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS), a decision analytic framework in which reservoirs’ candidate operating policies are represented using parameterized global approximators (e.g., radial basis functions) then those parameterized functions are optimized using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to discover the Pareto approximate operating policies. We contribute a comprehensive diagnostic assessment of modern MOEAs’ abilities to support EMODPS using the Conowingo reservoir in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania, USA. Our diagnostic results highlight that EMODPS can be very challenging for some modern MOEAs and that epsilon dominance, time-continuation, and auto-adaptive search are helpful for attaining high levels of performance. The ϵ-MOEA, the auto-adaptive Borg MOEA, and ϵ-NSGAII all yielded superior results for the six-objective Lower Susquehanna benchmarking test case. The top algorithms show low sensitivity to different MOEA parameterization choices and high algorithmic reliability in attaining consistent results for different random MOEA trials. Overall, EMODPS poses a promising method for discovering key reservoir management tradeoffs; however algorithmic choice remains a key concern for problems of increasing complexity. 相似文献
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19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract The problem of selecting appropriate objective functions for the identification of a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model is investigated, focusing on the value of the model in an operational setting. A probability-distributed soil moisture model is coupled with a linear parallel routing scheme, and conditioned on rainfall–runoff observations from three catchments in the southeast of England. Using an abstraction control problem, which requires accurate simulation of the intermediate flow range, it is shown that using the traditional RMSE fit criterion, produces operationally sub-optimal predictions. This is true in the identification period, when applied to a testing period, and to proxy catchment data. Using a second case study of the Leaf River in Mississippi (USA), where the focus changes to predicting flood peaks over a specified threshold, also suggests that the relevant flood threshold should govern the objective function choice. It is concluded that, due to limitations in the structure of the employed model, it would be counter-productive to try to achieve a good all-round representation of the rainfall–runoff processes, and that a more empirical approach to identification may be preferred for specific forecasting problems. This leaves us with the question of how far hydrological realism should be sacrificed in favour of purpose-driven objective functions. 相似文献
20.
Manuel Esteban Lucas-Borja Bruno Gianmarco Carrà João Pedro Nunes Léonard Bernard-Jannin Santo Marcello Zimbone 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(11):1956-1973
ABSTRACT Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively. 相似文献