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1.
Despite uncertainties and errors in measurement, observed peak discharges are the best estimate of the true peak discharge from a catchment. However, in ungauged catchments, the catchment response time is a fundamental input to all methods of estimating peak discharges; hence, errors in estimated catchment response time directly impact on estimated peak discharges. In South Africa, this is particularly the case in ungauged medium to large catchments where practitioners are limited to use empirical methods that were calibrated on small catchments not located in South Africa. The time to peak (TP), time of concentration (TC) and lag time (TL) are internationally the most frequently used catchment response time parameters and are normally estimated using either hydraulic or empirical methods. Almost 95% of all the time parameter estimation methods developed internationally are empirically based. This paper presents the derivation and verification of empirical TP equations in a pilot scale study using 74 catchments located in four climatologically different regions of South Africa, with catchment areas ranging from 20 km2 to 35 000 km2. The objective is to develop unique relationships between observed TP values and key climatological and geomorphological catchment predictor variables in order to estimate catchment TP values at ungauged catchments. The results show that the derived empirical TP equation(s) meet the requirement of consistency and ease of application. Independent verification tests confirmed the consistency, while the statistically significant independent predictor variables included in the regressions provide a good estimation of catchment response times and are also easy to determine by practitioners when required for future applications in ungauged catchments. It is recommended that the methodology used in this study should be expanded to other catchments to enable the development of a regional approach to improve estimation of time parameters on a national‐scale. However, such a national‐scale application would not only increase the confidence in using the suggested methodology and equation(s) in South Africa, but also highlights that a similar approach could be adopted internationally. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
In single‐event deterministic design flood estimation methods, estimates of the peak discharge are based on a single and representative catchment response time parameter. In small catchments, a simplified convolution process between a single‐observed hyetograph and hydrograph is generally used to estimate time parameters such as the time to peak (TP), time of concentration (TC), and lag time (TL) to reflect the “observed” catchment response time. However, such simplification is neither practical nor applicable in medium to large heterogeneous catchments, where antecedent moisture from previous rainfall events and spatially non‐uniform rainfall hyetographs can result in multi‐peaked hydrographs. In addition, the paucity of rainfall data at sub‐daily timescales further limits the reliable estimation of catchment responses using observed hyetographs and hydrographs at these catchment scales. This paper presents the development of a new and consistent approach to estimate catchment response times, expressed as the time to peak (TPx) obtained directly from observed streamflow data. The relationships between catchment response time parameters and conceptualised triangular‐shaped hydrograph approximations and linear catchment response functions are investigated in four climatologically regions of South Africa. Flood event characteristics using primary streamflow data from 74 flow‐gauging stations were extracted and analysed to derive unique relationships between peak discharge, baseflow, direct runoff, and catchment response time in terms of TPx. The TPx parameters are estimated from observed streamflow data using three different methods: (a) duration of total net rise of a multipeaked hydrograph, (b) triangular‐shaped direct runoff hydrograph approximations, and (c) linear catchment response functions. The results show that for design hydrology and for the derivation of empirical equations to estimate catchment response times in ungauged catchments, the catchment TPx should be estimated from both the use of an average catchment TPx value computed using either Methods (a) or (b) and a linear catchment response function as used in Method (c). The use of the different methods in combination is not only practical but is also objective and has consistent results.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

A hydrological drought magnitude (M T ) expressed in standardized terms is predicted on annual, monthly and weekly time scales for a sampling period of T years in streamflow data from the Canadian prairies. The drought episodes are considered to follow the Poisson law of probability and, when coupled with the gamma probability distribution function (pdf) of drought magnitude (M) in the extreme number theorem, culminate in a relationship capable of evaluating the expected value, E(M T ). The parameters of the underlying pdf of M are determined based on the assumption that the drought intensity follows a truncated normal pdf. The E(M T ) can be evaluated using only standard deviation (σ), lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ) of the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequence, and a weighting parameter Φ (ranging from 0 to 1) to account for the extreme drought duration (L T ), as well as the mean drought duration (Lm ), in a characteristic drought length (Lc ). The SHI is treated as standard normal variate, equivalent to the commonly-used standardized precipitation index. A closed-form relationship can be used for the estimation of first-order conditional probabilities, which can also be estimated from historical streamflow records. For all rivers, at the annual time scale, the value of Φ was found equal to 0.5, but it tends to vary (in the range 0 to 1) from river to river at monthly and weekly time scales. However, for a particular river, the Φ value was nearly constant at monthly and weekly time scales. The proposed method estimates E(M T ) satisfactorily comparable to the observed counterpart. At the annual time scale, the assumption of a normal pdf for drought magnitude tends to yield results in close proximity to that of a gamma pdf. The M T , when transformed into deficit-volume, can form a basis for designing water storage facilities and for planning water management strategies during drought periods.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2013. A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 549–569.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.  相似文献   

5.
The aim of this paper is to illustrate the effects of spatial organization of lake chains and associated storage thresholds upon lake-overflow behaviour, and specifically their impact upon large scale flow connectivity and the flood frequency of lake overflows. The analysis was carried out with the use of a multiple bucket model of the lake chain system, consisting of a network of both lakes and associated catchment areas, which explicitly incorporated within it three storage thresholds: a catchment field capacity threshold that governs catchment subsurface stormflow, a total storage capacity threshold that governs catchment surface runoff, and a lake storage capacity threshold that determines lake overflow. The model is driven by rainfall inputs generated by a stochastic rainfall model that is able to capture rainfall variability at a wide range of time scales. The study is used to gain insights into the process controls of lake-overflow generation, and in particular, to explore the crucial role of factors relating to lake organization, such as the average catchment area to lake area (AC/AL) ratio and the distribution of AC/AL with distance in the downstream direction (increasing or decreasing). The study showed that the average AC/AL value was the most important factor determining the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of floods from a landscape consisting of lake chains. The larger the average AC/AL value the more runoff is generated from catchments thus increasing both the occurrence and magnitude of lake overflows. In this case the flood frequency curve reflects that of the catchment area, and lake organization does not play an important role. When AC/AL is small the landscape is lake dominated, the spatial organization of lakes has a significant impact on lake connectivity, and consequently on flood frequency. One of the aspects of lake organization that may have a significant influence on lake connectivity is the spatial distribution of AC/AL from upstream to downstream (increasing or decreasing). In a landscape in which AC/AL increases downstream, lake overflow will occur more frequently relative to a similar landscape (i.e. identical AC/AL) with a constant value of AC/AL. When AC/AL decreases downstream, however, runoff inputs from the upstream parts will trigger lake overflow in the downstream parts, and consequently, full connectivity may be achieved leading to increased flood frequencies.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

Travel time and time of concentration Tc are important time parameters in hydrological designs. Although Tc is the time for the runoff to travel to the outlet from the most remote part of the catchment, most researchers have used an indirect method such as hydrograph analysis to estimate Tc. A quasi two-dimensional diffusion wave model with particle tracking for overland flow was developed to determine the travel time, and validated for runoff discharges, velocities, and depths. Travel times for 85%, 95% and 100% of particles arrival at the outlet of impervious surfaces (i.e. Tt85, Tt95, and Tt100) were determined for 530 model runs. The correlations between these travel times and Tc estimated from hydrograph analysis showed a significant agreement between Tc and Tt85. All the travel times showed nonlinear relationships with the input variables (plot length, slope, roughness coefficient, and effective rainfall intensity) but showed linear relationships with each other.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

The standardized series of monthly and weekly flow sequences, referred to as standardized hydrological index (SHI) series, from five rivers in the Canadian prairies were subjected to return period (Tr) analysis of drought length (L). The SHI series were truncated at drought probability levels q ranging from 0.5 to 0.05 with the intention of deducing drought events and corresponding drought lengths. The values of L were fitted to the Pearson 3, the gamma (2-parameter), the exponential (1-parameter), the Weibull 3 and the Weibull (2-parameter) probability density functions (pdfs). A priori assignment of one week or one month for the location parameter in the Pearson 3 pdf proved logical and also facilitated the rapid estimation of other parameters using either the method of moments or the method of maximum likelihood. The Pearson 3 turns out to be the most suitable pdf to describe and to estimate return periods of drought lengths. At the monthly and weekly time scales, it was inferred that the sample size (T, months or weeks) of SHI series could be treated equivalent to the return period of the largest recorded drought length. At the annual time scale, however, the sample size (T, years) should be modified using either the Hazen or the Gringorten plotting position formula to reflect the actual return period of the largest recorded drought length in years.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor E. Gargouri  相似文献   

8.
A Ashfaq  P Webster 《水文研究》2000,14(7):1217-1233
This study presents an investigation of the time to peak of unit response functions for design flood studies. It is based on an empirical analysis of observed rainfall–runoff data for 49 basins in the UK and explores the relationship between unit response time to peak (tp) and flood peak magnitude (Qp). The results show that tp varies significantly between events but suggest a systematic relationship between tp and Qp. The relationships which have been developed suggest that tp decreases with flood magnitude and approaches to an asymptotic value for very large values of Qp. These findings confirm numerous physical and field investigations and also support the reduction in response time for probable maximum flood (PMF) recommended in the Soil Conservation Services method, the Flood Studies Report method and the Flood Estimation Handbook. The findings also suggest that tp should be modified in unit hydrograph methods of design flood analysis for return periods that differ from those used in deriving unit hydrographs. A simple correction curve has been developed for adjusting tp according to the design flood return period. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

This study examines relationships between model parameters and urbanization variables for evaluating urbanization effects in a watershed. Rainfall–runoff simulation using the Nash model is the main basis of the study. Mean rainfall and excesses resulting from time-variant losses were completed using the kriging and nonlinear programming methods, respectively. Calibrated parameters of 47 events were related to urbanized variables, change of shape parameter responds more sensitively than that of scale parameter based on comparisons between annual average and optimal interval methods. Regression equations were used to obtain four continuous correlations for linking shape parameter with urbanization variables. Verification of 10 events demonstrates that shape parameter responds more strongly to imperviousness than to population, and a power relationship is suitable. Therefore, an imperviousness variable is a major reference for analysing urbanization changes to a watershed. This study found that time to peak of IUH was reduced from 11.76 to 3.97 h, whereas peak discharge increased from 44.79 to 74.92 m3/s.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Huang, S.-Y., Cheng, S.-J., Wen, J.-C. and Lee, J.-H., 2012. Identifying hydrograph parameters and their relationships to urbanization variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 144–161.  相似文献   

10.
Floods in small mountainous watersheds cover a wide spectrum of flow. They can range from clear water flows and hyperconcentrated flows to debris floods and debris flows, and calculation of the peak discharge is crucial for predicting and mitigating such hazards. To determine the optimal approach for discharge estimation, this study compared water flow monitoring hydrographs to investigate the performance of five hydrological models that incorporate different runoff yields and influx calculation methods. Two of the models performed well in simulating the peak discharge, peak time, and total flow volume of the water flood. The ratio (γ) of the monitored debris flood discharge (Qd) to the simulated water flow discharge (Qw) was investigated. Qualitatively, γ initially increased with Qw but then decreased when Qw exceeded a certain threshold, which corresponded to rainfall of 95 and 120 mm in a 6- and 24-h event with a normal distribution of precipitation, respectively. The decrease might be attributable to a threshold of sediment availability being reached, beyond which increased flow rate is not matched by increased sediment input in the large watershed. Uncertainty of hydrological calculation was evaluated by dividing the catchment into sub-basins and adopting different rainfall time steps as input. The efficiency of using a distributed simulation exhibited marginal improvement potential compared with a lumped simulation. Conversely, the rainfall time step input significantly affected the simulation results by delaying the peak time and decreasing the peak discharge. This research demonstrates the applicability of a discharge estimation method that combines a hydrological water flow simulation and an estimation of γ. The results were verified on the basis of monitored flow densities and videos obtained in two watersheds with areas of 2.34 and 32.4 km2.  相似文献   

11.
 A comparison of different methods for estimating T-year events is presented, all based on the Extreme Value Type I distribution. Series of annual maximum flood from ten gauging stations at the New Zealand South Island have been used. Different methods of predicting the 100-year event and the connected uncertainty have been applied: At-site estimation and regional index-flood estimation with and without accounting for intersite correlation using either the method of moments or the method of probability weighted moments for parameter estimation. Furthermore, estimation at ungauged sites were considered applying either a log-linear relationship between at-site mean annual flood and catchment characteristics or a direct log-linear relationship between 100-year events and catchment characteristics. Comparison of the results shows that the existence of at-site measurements significantly diminishes the prediction uncertainty and that the presence of intersite correlation tends to increase the uncertainty. A simulation study revealed that in regional index-flood estimation the method of probability weighted moments is preferable to method of moment estimation with regard to bias and RMSE.  相似文献   

12.
A simplified empirical equation is developed for widespread prediction of dynamic catchment response time. This model allows for time-to-peak prediction to evolve from static, lumped models, thereby providing a single value for any storm within a given catchment, using a single set of input parameters, that can be applied to a dynamic model, thus accounting for the variability between storm sizes and catchment moisture conditions. These dynamic prediction methods are translated to North America for the first time. This allows the concepts and prediction methods for catchment response time prediction previously established for the United Kingdom (UK), to be translated to a simple empirical equation for use in North America, through the use of selected study areas in Canada and the United States. This reconfigured model is statistically successful in both the UK and North America and allows for a straightforward implementation of dynamic time-to-peak prediction. Further, the reconfigured model introduces the use of a runoff coefficient (Rc) to encompass historical catchment wetness, increasing the ease of incorporating antecedent moisture condition into predictions.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, a method, which synthesizes the artificial ground motion compatible with the specified peak velocity as well as the target acceleration response spectrum, was proposed. In this method, firstly, an initial acceleration time history α8^（0） （t）, which satisfies the prescribed peak ground acceleration, the target spectral acceleration ST（ω, ζ）,and the specified intensity envelope, is generated by the traditional method that generates the requency domain; secondly,α8^（0） （t）is further modulated by superimposing narrow-band time histories upon it in the time domain to make its peak velocity, approach the target peak ground velocity, and at the same time to improve its fitting precision to the target spectrum. Numerical examples show that this algorithm boasts high calculation precisions.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

There has been a trend in recent years towards the development and popularity of physically-based deterministic models. However, the application of such models is not without difficulties. This paper investigates the usefulness of a conceptual single-event model for simulating floods from catchments covering a wide variety of climatic and physiographic areas. The model has been calibrated on a group of catchments and the calibrated parameter values related to physical catchment indices. The resulting quantitative relationships are assessed with respect to their value for estimating the parameter values of the model when calibration is not possible. The results indicate that the technique is likely to provide flood estimations for medium sized catchments (5–150 km2) that are more reliable than several flood estimation methods currently in use in South Africa.  相似文献   

15.
An approximation is developed that allows mapped 4D seismic amplitudes and time‐shifts to be related directly to the weighted linear sum of pore pressure and saturation changes. The weights in this relation are identified as key groups of parameters from a petroelastic model and include the reservoir porosity. This dependence on groups of parameters explains the inherent non‐uniqueness of this problem experienced by previous researchers. The proposed relation is of use in 4D seismic data feasibility studies and inversion and interpretation of the 4D seismic response in terms of pore pressure and water saturation changes. A further result is drawn from analysis of data from the North Sea and West Africa, which reveals that the relative interplay between the effects of pore pressure and saturation changes on the seismic data can be simplified to the control of a single, spatially variant parameter CS/CP. Combining these results with those from published literature, we find that CS/CP = 8 appears to be a generality across a range of clastic reservoirs with a similar mean porosity. Using this CS/CP value, an in situ seismic‐scale constraint for the rock stress sensitivity component of the petroelastic model is constructed considering this component carries the largest uncertainty.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
The objective of this paper is to identify the first mode ground period Tg, at each interesting site along Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR) route, and further, to determine the site-dependent design response spectrum for particular sites with Tg larger than 1 s. In this paper, a linear model of shear wave propagating in a multi-layered half-space is developed to identify the first mode ground period Tg of an interesting site on the basis of the field bore hole data. Furthermore, for each one of the strong ground motion observation stations within the Chiayi-Tainan area, the first mode ground period Tg was identified by either coda waves or pre-event ambient vibrations from the seismograms. In addition, the site-specific parameter Cv in defining the normalized response spectrum was also determined based on the observed strong ground motions at the specified observation station, and hence the empirical function between Tg and Cv can be regressed for this interesting area. Therefore, for a particular site along THSR route within the Chiayi-Tainan area, the site-specific parameter Cv can be determined from the regressed empirical function by the identified first mode ground period Tg, and further, used to develop the site-dependent design response spectrum.  相似文献   

18.
We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, TL, or equivalently maxima in local probability, PL, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped TL (PL) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the TL (PL) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped TL (PL) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting TL- and PL-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with TL <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short TL map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of TL calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.  相似文献   

19.
In order to investigate the response of structures to near‐fault seismic excitations, the ground motion input should be properly characterized and parameterized in terms of simple, yet accurate and reliable, mathematical models whose input parameters have a clear physical interpretation and scale, to the extent possible, with earthquake magnitude. Such a mathematical model for the representation of the coherent (long‐period) ground motion components has been proposed by the authors in a previous study and is being exploited in this article for the investigation of the elastic and inelastic response of the single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) system to near‐fault seismic excitations. A parametric analysis of the dynamic response of the SDOF system as a function of the input parameters of the mathematical model is performed to gain insight regarding the near‐fault ground motion characteristics that significantly affect the elastic and inelastic structural performance. A parameter of the mathematical representation of near‐fault motions, referred to as ‘pulse duration’ (TP), emerges as a key parameter of the problem under investigation. Specifically, TP is employed to normalize the elastic and inelastic response spectra of actual near‐fault strong ground motion records. Such normalization makes feasible the specification of design spectra and reduction factors appropriate for near‐fault ground motions. The ‘pulse duration’ (TP) is related to an important parameter of the rupture process referred to as ‘rise time’ (τ) which is controlled by the dimension of the sub‐events that compose the mainshock. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):808-824
Abstract

We report results of three field campaigns conducted at 39 stations. At each station, we measured reflectance spectra in situ and collected water samples for measuring chlorophyll a (CHL) and suspended solids (SS) concentrations in the laboratory. To identify the indicative bands and develop suitable estimation models for CHL (C CHL) and SS (C SS) concentrations in Taihu Lake, a spectral-feature method and a derivative method were applied. The following conclusions were drawn: (a) the critical C CHL and C SS probably causing their spectral variation are, respectively: 0, 10, 50 and 75 μg L?1, and 0, 10, 50 and 100 mg L?1; (b) the derivative method is better than the spectral-feature method for estimating C CHL and C SS; (c) the optimal variable for CHL is a reflectance second-order derivative at 501 nm or a reflectance first-order derivative at 698 nm; the optimal variable for SS can change when its concentration is low and the range is narrow; otherwise, the optimal variable is a reflectance first-order derivative at 878 nm; and (d) the CHL and SS have an effect on one another's retrieval. The C CHL estimation accuracy would benefit from narrowing the C SS range. With C CHL increasing and its range broadening, the corresponding C SS estimation accuracy decreases gradually.  相似文献   

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