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1.
This paper analyses the skills of fuzzy computing based rainfall–runoff model in real time flood forecasting. The potential of fuzzy computing has been demonstrated by developing a model for forecasting the river flow of Narmada basin in India. This work has demonstrated that fuzzy models can take advantage of their capability to simulate the unknown relationships between a set of relevant hydrological data such as rainfall and river flow. Many combinations of input variables were presented to the model with varying structures as a sensitivity study to verify the conclusions about the coherence between precipitation, upstream runoff and total watershed runoff. The most appropriate set of input variables was determined, and the study suggests that the river flow of Narmada behaves more like an autoregressive process. As the precipitation is weighted only a little by the model, the last time‐steps of measured runoff are dominating the forecast. Thus a forecast based on expected rainfall becomes very inaccurate. Although good results for one‐step‐ahead forecasts are received, the accuracy deteriorates as the lead time increases. Using the one‐step‐ahead forecast model recursively to predict flows at higher lead time, however, produces better results as opposed to different independent fuzzy models to forecast flows at various lead times. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟 总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0
本文以鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统为研究对象,鉴于该湖泊流域系统尺度较大,下垫面自然属性呈现高度空间异质性且具有流域-平原区-湖泊不同机制的水文水动力过程,为了真实描述湖泊流域间的水文水动力联系及反映不同过程间的作用机制,构建了鄱阳湖湖泊流域联合模拟模型.该模型基于自主研发的流域分布式水文模型WATLAC和湖滨平原区产流模型以及水动力模型MIKE 21 3个不同功能子模型的连接来实现该复杂系统的模拟.模型的联合采用输入-输出驱动及子模型的顺序执行进程,即将五大子流域与平原区入湖径流量作为输入条件来驱动湖泊水动力模型,模拟湖泊水位对流域入湖径流量的响应.以2000-2005年鄱阳湖流域6个水文站点的河道径流量、流域基流指数以及湖泊4个站点的水位资料来率定模型,其中各站点日径流量拟合的纳希效率系数Ens为0.71~0.84,确定性系数R2介于0.70~0.88之间,而湖泊各站点水位拟合的纳希效率系数Ens变化为0.88~0.98,确定性系数R2为0.96~0.98,均取得令人满意的率定结果.本文提出的鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟模型能较为理想再现湖泊水位对流域降雨-径流过程的响应.水位模拟结果进一步表明,该联合模型能用来获取重要的水动力空间变化特征.该模型可作为有效工具定量揭示湖泊流域系统水文水动力过程对气候变化和流域人类活动的响应. 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACT Understanding of rainfall–runoff model performance under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions is limited. This study compared lumped (IHACRES), semi-distributed (HEC-HMS) and fully-distributed (SWATgrid) hydrological models to determine which most realistically simulates runoff in catchments where non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships exists. The models were calibrated and validated under different hydroclimatic conditions (Average, Wet and Dry) for two heterogeneous catchments in southeast Australia (SEA). SWATgrid realistically simulates runoff in the smaller catchment under most hydroclimatic conditions but fails when the model is calibrated in Dry conditions and validated in Wet. All three models perform poorly in the larger catchment irrespective of hydroclimatic conditions. This highlights the need for more research aimed at improving the ability of hydrological models to realistically incorporate the physical processes causing non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships. Although the study is focussed on SEA, the insights gained are useful for all regions which experience large hydroclimatic variability and multi-year/decadal droughts. 相似文献
4.
Genevieve Ali Doerthe Tetzlaff Laura Kruitbos Chris Soulsby Sean Carey Jeff McDonnell 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):56-72
AbstractSeasonality is an important hydrological signature for catchment comparison. Here, the relevance of monthly precipitation–runoff polygons (defined as scatter points of 12 monthly average precipitation–runoff value pairs connected in the chronological monthly sequence) for characterizing seasonality patterns was investigated to describe the hydrological behaviour of 10 catchments spanning a climatic gradient across the northern temperate region. Specifically, the research objectives were to: (a) discuss the extent to which monthly precipitation–runoff polygons can be used to infer active hydrological processes in contrasting catchments; (b) test the ability of quantitative metrics describing the shape, orientation and surface area of monthly precipitation–runoff polygons to discriminate between different seasonality patterns; and (c) examine the value of precipitation–runoff polygons as a basis for catchment grouping and comparison. This study showed that some polygon metrics were as effective as monthly average runoff coefficients for illustrating differences between the 10 catchments. The use of precipitation–runoff polygons was especially helpful to look at the dynamics prevailing in specific months and better assess the coupling between precipitation and runoff and their relative degree of seasonality. This polygon methodology, linked with a range of quantitative metrics, could therefore provide a new simple tool for understanding and comparing seasonality among catchments.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. HealCitation Ali, G., Tetzlaff, D., Kruitbos, L., Soulsby, C., Carey, S., McDonnell, J., Buttle, J., Laudon, H., Seibert, J., McGuire, K., and Shanley, J., 2013. Analysis of hydrological seasonality across northern catchments using monthly precipitation–runoff polygon metrics. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 56–72. 相似文献
5.
Testing a spatially distributed tracer‐aided runoff model in a snow‐influenced catchment: Effects of multicriteria calibration on streamwater ages 
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下载免费PDF全文 Thea I. Piovano Doerthe Tetzlaff Pertti Ala‐aho Jim Buttle Carl P. J. Mitchell Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2018,32(20):3089-3107
Integrating stable isotope tracers into rainfall‐runoff models allows investigation of water partitioning and direct estimation of travel times and water ages. Tracer data have valuable information content that can be used to constrain models and, in integration with hydrometric observations, test the conceptualization of catchment processes in model structure and parameterization. There is great potential in using tracer‐aided modelling in snow‐influenced catchments to improve understanding of these catchments' dynamics and sensitivity to environmental change. We used the spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall‐runoff (STARR) model to simulate the interactions between water storage, flux, and isotope dynamics in a snow‐influenced, long‐term monitored catchment in Ontario, Canada. Multiple realizations of the model were achieved using a combination of single and multiple objectives as calibration targets. Although good simulations of hydrometric targets such as discharge and snow water equivalent could be achieved by local calibration alone, adequate capture of the stream isotope dynamics was predicated on the inclusion of isotope data in the calibration. Parameter sensitivity was highest, and most local, for single calibration targets. With multiple calibration targets, key sensitive parameters were still identifiable in snow and runoff generation routines. Water ages derived from flux tracking subroutines in the model indicated a catchment where runoff is dominated by younger waters, particularly during spring snowmelt. However, resulting water ages were most sensitive to the partitioning of runoff sources from soil and groundwater sources, which was most realistically achieved when isotopes were included in the calibration. Given the paucity of studies where hydrological models explicitly incorporate tracers in snow‐influenced regions, this study using STARR is an important contribution to satisfactorily simulating snowpack dynamics and runoff generation processes, while simultaneously capturing stable isotope variability in snow‐influenced catchments. 相似文献
6.
Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas,Morocco) 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km2) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch 相似文献
7.
Wenjuan Zheng Anna Lamačová Xuan Yu Pavel Krám Jakub Hruška Pavel Zahradníček Petr Štěpánek Aleš Farda 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14281
Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate. 相似文献
8.
Hydrological model comparison and assessment: criteria from catchment scales and temporal resolution
ABSTRACTThis study examines the performance of three hydrological models, namely the artificial neural network (ANN) model, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning-D (HBV-D) model, and the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) over the upper reaches of the Huai River basin. The assessment is done by using databases of different temporal resolution and by further examining the applicability of SWIM for different catchment sizes. The results show that at monthly scale the performance of the ANN model is better than that of HBV-D and SWIM. The ANN model can be applied at any temporal scale as it establishes an artificial precipitation–runoff relationship for various time scales by only using monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff data. However, at daily scale the performance of both HBV-D and SWIM are similar or even better than the ANN model. In addition, the performance of SWIM at a small catchment size (less than 10 000 km2) is much better than at a larger catchment size. In view of climate change modelling, HBV-D and SWIM might be integrated in a dynamical atmosphere-water-cycle modelling rather than the ANN model due to their use of observed physical links instead of artificial relations within a black box.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes 相似文献
9.
AbstractThis study investigates the terrestrial hydrological processes during a dry climate period in Southwest China by analysing the frequency-dependent runoff and soil moisture responses to precipitation variability. Two headwater sub-basins, the Nanpan and Guihe basins of the West River (Xijiang), are studied to compare and contrast the terrestrial responses. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model is used to simulate the hydrological processes. Using wavelets, the relationships between observed precipitation and simulated runoff/soil moisture are expressed quantitatively. The results indicate that: (a) the Guihe basin shows a greater degree of high-frequency runoff variability in response to regional precipitation; and (b) the Nanpan basin exhibits less capability in accommodating/smoothing extreme precipitation deficits, reflected in terms of both higher scale-averaged (for 3–6 months) and time-averaged (for the year 1963) wavelet power of soil moisture.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.-Y. XuCitation Niu, J. and Chen, J., 2013. Terrestrial hydrological responses to precipitation variability in Southwest China with emphasis on drought. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 325–335. 相似文献
10.
Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
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DIONYSIA PANAGOULIA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):525-547
Abstract The long term hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes has been examined, The climate changes were represented by a set of hypothetical scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes. Snow accumulation and ablation, plus runoff from the study catchment (the Mesochora catchment in central Greece) were simulated under present (historical) and altered climate conditions using the US National Weather Service snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models. The results of this research obtained through alternative scenarios suggest strongly that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause major decreases in winter snow accumulation and hence increases in winter runoff, as well as decreases in spring and summer runoff. The simulated changes in annual runoff were minor compared with the changes in the monthly distribution of runoff. Attendant changes in the monthly distribution of soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration would also occur. Such hydrological results would have significant implications on future water resources design and management. 相似文献
13.
Mikołaj Piniewski Frank Voss Ilona Bärlund Tomasz Okruszko Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):737-754
Abstract The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754. 相似文献
14.
Haykel Sellami Sihem Benabdallah Isabelle La Jeunesse Marnik Vanclooster 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1415-1429
ABSTRACTClimate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in the 2050s. For both hydrological indicators, uncertainty magnitude increased when moving from dry to wet periods. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate model uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet periods, whereas in dry periods hydrological parametric uncertainty became more important.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae 相似文献
15.
Conceptual modelling to assess how the interplay of hydrological connectivity,catchment storage and tracer dynamics controls nonstationary water age estimates 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Although catchment storage is an intrinsic control on the rainfall–runoff response of streams, direct measurement remains a major challenge. Coupled models that integrate long‐term hydrometric and isotope tracer data are useful tools that can provide insights into the dynamics of catchment storage and the volumes of water involved. In this study, we use a tracer‐aided hydrological model to characterize catchment storage as a dynamic control on system function related to streamflow generation, which also allows direct estimation of the nonstationarity of water ages. We show that in a wet Scottish upland catchment dominated by runoff generation from riparian peats (histosols) with high water storage, nonstationarity in water age distributions is only clearly detectable during more extreme wet and dry periods. This is explained by the frequency and longevity of hydrological connectivity and the associated relative importance of flow paths contributing younger or older waters to the stream. Generally, these saturated riparian soils represent large mixing zones that buffer the time variance of water age and integrate catchment‐scale partial mixing processes. Although storage simulations depend on model performance, which is influenced by input variability and the degree of isotopic damping in the stream, a longer‐term storage analysis of this model indicates a system that is only sensitive to more extreme hydroclimatic variability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract An updating technique is a tool to update the forecasts of mathematical flood forecasting model based on data observed in real time, and is an important element in a flood forecasting model. An error prediction model based on a fuzzy rule-based method was proposed as the updating technique in this work to improve one- to four-hour-ahead flood forecasts by a model that is composed of the grey rainfall model, the grey rainfall—runoff model and the modified Muskingum flow routing model. The coefficient of efficiency with respect to a benchmark is applied to test the applicability of the proposed fuzzy rule-based method. The analysis reveals that the fuzzy rule-based method can improve flood forecasts one to four hours ahead. The proposed updating technique can mitigate the problem of the phase lag in forecast hydrographs, and especially in forecast hydrographs with longer lead times. 相似文献
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I. Becchi E. Caporali L. Castellani E. Palmisano F. Castelli 《Surveys in Geophysics》1995,16(2):227-252
In the study of flash-flood occurrence in small catchments the lack of flow measurements is often one of the main limiting factors. Prior to estimating the forecasting potentialities and techniques for such events, an accurate reconstruction of past event flood dynamics is first required. This issue is here addressed by analyzing, with the use of a distributed hydrological model, the hydrometeorological conditions in which a severe flash-flood occurred, on October 1992, on a 48 square kilometers catchment in the Arno basin. Such an event was caused by the persistence of intense convective clusters on the background of widespread rain bands of frontal origin. The distributed hydrological model here adopted is devoted to simulate the evolution and the variability of the primary processes involved in the runoff cycle. Together with the hydrological model structure, other particular aspects of the event reconstruction procedure are discussed: the managing and processing of the information coming from different sensors, with different temporal and spatial resolutions; the identification of local precipitation dynamics (frontal or convective) within small areas of integrated radar and rain gauges data fields; the interpolation of rain gauge data on the basis of the radar-estimated spatial correlation. The results of the distributed modeling, concerning the estimate of the flood wave at various sites, are compared with analogous results obtained with simpler lumped models. 相似文献
19.
Models as multiple working hypotheses: hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tropical alpine grasslands, locally known as páramos, are the water towers of the northern Andes. They are an essential water source for drinking water, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants. But despite their high socio‐economic relevance, their hydrological processes are very poorly understood. Since environmental change, ranging from small scale land‐use changes to global climate change, is expected to have a strong impact on the hydrological behaviour, a better understanding and hydrological prediction are urgently needed. In this paper, we apply a set of nine hydrological models of different complexity to a small, well monitored upland catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes. The models represent different hypotheses on the hydrological functioning of the páramo ecosystem at catchment scale. Interpretation of the results of the model prediction and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters reveals important insights in the evapotranspiration, surface runoff generation and base flow in the páramo. However, problems with boundary conditions, particularly spatial variability of precipitation, pose serious constraints on the differentiation between model representations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
J. P. BRUCE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):141-150
Abstract The hydrological regime of a mountainous catchment, in this instance the Mesochora catchment in Central Greece, was simulated for altered climates resulting when using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model for carbon dioxide doubling. The catchment snow water equivalent was predicted on the basis of the snow accumulation and ablation model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS), while the catchment runoff, as well as actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture storages, were simulated through application of the soil moisture accounting model of NWSRFS. Two scenarios of monthly climate change were drawn from the GISS model, one associated with temperature and precipitation changes, while the other referred to temperature changes alone. A third hypothetical scenario with temperature and precipitation changes similar to those corresponding to the mean monthly GISS scenarios was used to test the sensitivity of the monthly climate change of the hypothetical case on catchment hydrology. All three scenarios projected decreases in average snow accumulations and in spring and summer runoff and soil moisture, as well as increases in winter runoff and soil moisture storage and spring evapotranspiration. 相似文献