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1.
While ecosystems-based adaptation (EbA) has been received with great interest, the requirements for EbA implementation and its precise benefits under future climate change are unclear. Furthermore, EbA’s overlap with environmental, and development policy agendas leads to ambiguity regarding what actions fall under the rubric of EbA. We analyze the projects identified by the UNFCCC as examples of EbA to understand how EbA is conceptualized and promoted by the international community. Addressing climate change is the primary objective of 58% of the EbA projects; the other 42% of projects provide adaptation benefits yet are not primarily driven by climate change. A project’s adaptation targeting is tied to its information needs. Projects whose primary objective is to address climate change are more likely to use detailed climate projections than projects whose primary objective is to address natural hazards, development or ecosystems degradation. A majority of projects do not address uncertainty in future climate change or in adaptation benefits, nor do they track adaptation outcomes. This prevalent lack of monitoring highlights the possibility of a gap between expected and realized adaptation outcomes. It also represents a lost opportunity for improving knowledge of the thresholds of effectiveness of EbA and of factors influencing EbA efficacy. 相似文献
2.
Place attachment, the emotional bonds that people form to significant places, influences adaptation to climate change. Within this context, weather is garnering greater attention for its dynamic, mediating role, yet its political and cultural significance remains under-researched. Here we draw on Serres and McCarren’s (1992) idea of the Natural Contract and Vannini et al.’s (2012) contributions on weathering to integrate contractarianism with a deep account of people’s relationship with weather in place. We analyse attitudes and adaptation to climate change in communities of the geographically-remote and climate-vulnerable Outer Hebrides in Scotland, using video-elicitation to generate data on significant places. Our results show that changing, difficult and unpredictable weather binds people to place and influences how they think about themselves, their place and adaptation in dynamic ways. Through this connection, we demonstrate that people knowingly enter into what we term Weather Contracts and that accepting the volatility of the weather allows people to react positively to changes brought with climate. Finally, we show that the common ideology of a community living with weather generates wider discourses around independence and resisting modernisation that we term a weathered ideology. Thus, climate change is not always a destabilising force. For those who are accustomed to changing weather it can be a dimension of place around which people can organise. Uncertainty and anxiety about the future of the climate is caused more by a lack of control over adaptation processes than by a fear of unknown weather. This has implications for people living at the margins across the globe, where unpredictable weather is a part of local identities, but influence on adaptation policy making is low. 相似文献
3.
D. Reckien J. Flacke R. J. Dawson O. Heidrich M. Olazabal A. Foley J. J.-P. Hamann H. Orru M. Salvia S. De Gregorio Hurtado D. Geneletti F. Pietrapertosa 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):331-340
Urban areas are pivotal to global adaptation and mitigation efforts. But how do cities actually perform in terms of climate change response? This study sheds light on the state of urban climate change adaptation and mitigation planning across Europe. Europe is an excellent test case given its advanced environmental policies and high urbanization. We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities’ climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. We investigate the regional distribution of plans, adaptation and mitigation foci and the extent to which planned greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions contribute to national and international climate objectives. To our knowledge, it is the first study of its kind as it does not rely on self-assessment (questionnaires or social surveys). Our results show that 35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan. No city has an adaptation plan without a mitigation plan. One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets, but those vary extensively in scope and ambition. Furthermore, we show that if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole. However, the actions would often be insufficient to reach national targets and fall short of the 80 % reduction in GHG emissions recommended to avoid global mean temperature rising by 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. 相似文献
4.
In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province's island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts. 相似文献
5.
There is much scholarly and policy interest in the role that international finance could play in closing the financing gap for community adaptation initiatives. Despite the interest, the overall amount of international adaptation finance that has reached local recipients remains low. What makes internationally-financed climate change adaptation projects focus on investment at the community level is particularly poorly understood. This study systematically assesses conditions that influence the focus on vulnerable local communities in internationally-financed adaptation projects. Using the Adaptation Fund (AF) under the Kyoto Protocol as the case study, we apply fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to analyze 30 AF projects to identify specific configurations of conditions that lead to a stronger or weaker community focus in project design. We find that the absence of high exposure to projected future climate risks is a necessary condition for a weaker community focus in AF projects. Three configurations of sufficient conditions are identified that lead to a stronger community focus. They involve the contextual factors of projected future climate risks, civil society governance, and access modality to AF financing. In particular, AF projects with a stronger community focus are stimulated by the sole presence of higher exposure to projected future climate risks in a group of countries, and by the complementary roles of civil society governance and the access modality to the AF in others. These findings contribute new insights on how to enhance local inclusiveness of global climate finance. 相似文献
6.
A major challenge in planning for adaptation to climate change is to assess future development not only in relation to climate but also in relation to social, economic and political changes that affect the capacity for adaptation or otherwise play a role in decision making. One approach is to use scenario methods. This article presents a methodology that combines top-down scenarios and bottom-up approaches to scenario building, with the aim of articulating local so-called extended socio-economic pathways. Specifically, we used the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the global scenario framework as developed by the climate research community to present boundary conditions about potential global change in workshop discussion with local and regional actors in the Barents region. We relate the results from these workshops to the different elements of the global SSPs and discuss potential and limitations of the method in relation to use in decision making processes. 相似文献
7.
Human adaptation to climate change is gaining increasing academic as well as political attention. Understanding how and what people around the world adapt to is, however, difficult. Climate change is often, if not always, only one of a multiplicity of exposures perforating local communities. In Biidi 2, a small Sahelian village in northern Burkina Faso, climate variability have had a great influence on inhabitants’ lives since the major droughts of the early 1970s and 1980s. Tracing the intertwinement of drought, diminishing agricultural production and the need to buy food, this article explores how villagers attempt to attract development projects and negotiate with political parties in order to negate the impact of the global food crisis on their livelihoods. In doing so the article attempts to show how adaptation to climate variability is related to multiple, intersecting processes, and in this specific case is a matter of navigating changing socioeconomic factors. Using recent theory from social anthropology, adaptation is explored as a matter of social navigation. It is suggested that this theoretical approach might help nuance and elucidate how, and to what, local people around the world adapt. 相似文献
8.
James D. Ford Tristan Pearce Frank Duerden Chris Furgal Barry Smit 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):177-191
We identify and examine how policy intervention can help Canada's Inuit population adapt to climate change. The policy responses are based on an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability identified in research conducted with 15 Inuit communities. A consistent approach was used in each case study where vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure-sensitivity to climatic risks and adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. This conceptualization focuses on the biophysical and human determinants of vulnerability and how they are influenced by processes and conditions operating at multiple spatial-temporal scales. Case studies involved close collaboration with community members and policy makers to identify conditions to which each community is currently vulnerable, characterize the factors that shape vulnerability and how they have changed over time, identify opportunities for adaptation policy, and examine how adaptation can be mainstreamed. Fieldwork, conducted between 2006 and 2009, included 443 semi-structured interviews, 20 focus groups/community workshops, and 65 interviews with policy makers at local, regional, and national levels. Synthesizing findings consistent across the case studies we document significant vulnerabilities, a function of socio-economic stresses and change, continuing and pervasive inequality, and magnitude of climate change. Nevertheless, adaptations are available, feasible, and Inuit have considerable adaptive capacity. Realizing this adaptive capacity and overcoming adaptation barriers requires policy intervention to: (i) support the teaching and transmission of environmental knowledge and land skills, (ii) enhance and review emergency management capability, (iii) ensure the flexibility of resource management regimes, (iv) provide economic support to facilitate adaptation for groups with limited household income, (v) increase research effort to identify short and long term risk factors and adaptive response options, (vi) protect key infrastructure, and (vii) promote awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation among policy makers. 相似文献
9.
Cities in the USA engage in action on climate change, even as the federal government remains resistant to comprehensive climate policy. While experts generally agree that local level adaptation and mitigation policies are critical to avoiding the worst climate impacts, the degree to which cities communicate climate change issues to their constituents has yet to be fully explored. In this article, we evaluate how US cities communicate climate change-related issues, problems, and policies. We use a computer-assisted approach to evaluate climate change efforts by cities by examining the full text of press releases of 82 large cities in the USA. We first identify who discusses climate change, finding that many large cities in the USA address climate change in their public communication. Second, we examine the content of these discussions. Many cities discuss weather-related concerns in conjunction with broad collaborative efforts to address global warming, while city-based policy discussions focus more on energy and transportation efforts. Third, we evaluate the local factors associated with these discussions. We find that the city’s climate vulnerability is particularly influential in shaping the level and timing of climatic communication. 相似文献
10.
Research on vulnerability and adaptation in social-ecological systems (SES) has largely centered on climate change and associated biophysical stressors. Key implications of this are twofold. First, there has been limited engagement with the impacts of social drivers of change on communities and linked SES. Second, the focus on climate effects often assumes slower drivers of change and fails to differentiate the implications of change occurring at different timescales. This has resulted in a body of SES scholarship that is under-theorized in terms of how communities experience and respond to fast versus slow change. Yet, social and economic processes at global scales increasingly emerge as ‘shocks’ for local systems, driving rapid and often surprising forms of change distinct from and yet interacting with the impacts of slow, ongoing ‘trends’. This research seeks to understand the nature and impacts of social shocks as opposed to or in concert with trends through the lens of a qualitative case study of a coastal community in Mexico, where demand from international seafood markets has spurred rapid development of a sea cucumber fishery. Specifically, we examined what different social-ecological changes are being experienced by the community, how the impacts of the sea cucumber fishery are distinct from and interacting with slower ongoing trends and how these processes are affecting system vulnerability, adaptations and adaptive capacity. We begin by proposing a novel framework for conceptualizing impacts on social systems, as comprised of structures, functions, and feedbacks. Our results illustrate how the rapid-onset of this fishery has driven dramatic changes in the community. New challenges such as the ‘gold-rush-style’ arrival of new actors, money, and livelihoods, the rapid over-exploitation of fish stocks, and increases in poaching and armed violence have emerged, exacerbating pressures from ongoing trends in immigration, overfishing and tourism development. We argue that there is a need to better understand and differentiate the social and ecological implications of shocks, which present novel challenges for the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities and the sustainability of marine ecosystems. 相似文献
11.
Adaptation to climate change is about planning for the future while responding to current pressures and challenges. Adaptation scientists are increasingly using future visioning exercises embedded in co-production and co-development techniques to assist stakeholders in imagining futures in a changing climate. Even if these exercises are growing in popularity, surprisingly little scrutiny has been placed on understanding the fundamental assumptions and choices in scenario approaches, timeframes, scales, or methods, and whether they result in meaningful changes in how adaptation is being thought about. Here, we unpack key insights and experiences across 62 case studies that specifically report on using future visioning exercises to engage stakeholders in climate change adaptation. We focus on three key areas: 1) Stakeholder diversity and scales; 2) Tools, methods, and data, and 3) Practical constraints, enablers, and outcomes. Our results show that most studies focus on the regional scale (n = 32; 52%), involve mainly formal decision makers and employ vast array of different methods, tools, and data. Interestingly, most exercises adopt either predictive (what will happen) and explorative (what could happen) scenarios while only a fraction use the more normative (what should happen) scenarios that could enable more transformative thinking. Reported positive outcomes include demonstrated increases in climate change literacy and support for climate change adaptation planning. Unintended and unexpected outcomes include increased anxiety in cases where introduced timeframes go beyond an individual’s expected life span and decreased perceived necessity for undertaking adaptation at all. Key agreed factors that underpin co-production and equal representation, such as gender, age, and diversity, are not well reported, and most case studies do not use reflective processes to harness participant feedback that could enable more robust methodology development. This is a missed opportunity in developing a more fundamental understanding of how these exercises can effectively shift individual and collective mindsets and advance the inclusion of different viewpoints as a pathway for more equitable and just climate adaptation. 相似文献
12.
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. 相似文献
13.
Local perspectives on a global phenomenon—Climate change in Eastern Tibetan villages 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tibetan villagers’ perceptions of climate change and its impacts are very detailed and can give important insights into local concerns and processes of climate change. Perceived climate changes and impacts differed significantly even within a small geographic area. Furthermore, climate change was seen as a moral and spiritual issue. These interpretations affect how people deal with climate change and its impacts and which solutions are regarded as relevant. In order to effectively address climate change impacts at the local scale and to enable the process of adaptation, it is necessary to address a combination of perceptions, local variations, moral and spiritual interpretations, and locally relevant solutions. 相似文献
14.
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(1):59-72
Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services’ 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a ‘one-at-a-time’ experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements.Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services’ WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because ‘one-at-a-time’ experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. 相似文献
15.
This paper analyzes discourses and practices of flood response and adaptation to climate change in Mozambique. It builds on recent publications on climate change adaptation that suggest that the successes and failures of adaptation highly depend on the cultural and political realms of societal perceptions and the sensitivity of institutions. To capture this, the paper adopted a multi-sited ethnographic approach. Acknowledging that there is no central locus of representation that can unveil the working of disaster response in Mozambique, the paper brings together five vignettes of research in different ‘sites’ of concern to the rise in floods in Mozambique. These are the politics of climate change adaptation at the national institutional level, societal responses to increased flooding, local people's responses to floods, the evacuation and resettlement programme following the 2007 flood. The paper finds how adaptation to climate change becomes part of everyday politics, how actors aim to incorporate responses into the continuation of their normal behavior and how elites are better positioned to take advantage of adaptation programmes than the vulnerable people that were targeted. It argues that climate change adaptation must be made consonant with historically grown and ongoing social and institutional processes. It concludes with lessons that the analysis and methodology of the research can provide for the practice of climate change adaptation. 相似文献
16.
Adaptation finance is primarily allocated to multilateral entities and national governments, rather than local organizations. This means that the social, political and economic processes that create and sustain inequalities within a country will be the same processes that determine how adaptation finance is used. Using an urban lens, we consider the obstacles currently faced by local governments and local civil society groups in accessing adaptation finance, and show that these are a function of systemic power imbalances between levels of government, and between government and vulnerable communities. We argue that even relatively small amounts of adaptation finance could have a catalytic effect on the capacities and impacts of local organizations, contributing to greater levels of both distributive and procedural justice. We analyse different financial intermediaries and planning systems that could be used to make disbursements from multilateral climate funds fairer and more effective. This could potentially create political opportunities both to respond to direct climate threats and to address underlying drivers of vulnerability, such as marginalization and exclusion. In this way, channelling adaptation finance to the local level could deliver more just processes and outcomes.
Key policy insights
More multilateral climate funds should establish direct access modalities, and introduce ‘fit-for-purpose’ accreditation procedures and approval processes. Those that have already established such enabling frameworks should prioritize providing readiness support to local organizations, and incentivize state and citizen collaboration in adaptation projects.
National governments should consider clearly enshrining the rights and responsibilities of local authorities in National Adaptation Plans, and help them to collect the information, build the capacities and acquire the resources needed to plan and implement adaptation measures. National governments should further encourage local authorities to adopt participatory planning, budgeting, monitoring and evaluation procedures to encourage citizen participation.
Local civil society groups should identify or establish collective entities that can seek accreditation with multilateral funds and then disburse money to their members. Collaboration between groups can facilitate up-scaling through replication (particularly where peer-to-peer learning is embedded in the network) and reduce the transaction costs associated with myriad small projects.
17.
Donna Green Lisa Alexander Kathy Mclnnes John Church Neville Nicholls Neil White 《Climatic change》2010,102(3-4):405-433
Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term. 相似文献
18.
郑艳 《气候变化研究进展》2012,8(2):103-109
IPCC发布的《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》特别报告(SREX)指出,极端事件和灾害的影响很大程度上取决于社会经济系统的风险暴露程度及其脆弱性特征。这意味着,不合理的发展过程将加剧灾害风险及其损失,另一方面,采取积极的减灾和适应行动,能够减小灾害风险并促进社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。SREX报告有助于启发决策者与社会公众,为充满不确定风险的未来进行合理规划,包括关注未来因人口和社会财富增长导致的暴露度和脆弱性增加,在国家和部门层面整合适应、减灾与发展政策,利用多种政策工具加强决策的科学性和灵活性,发挥不同主体在适应治理与灾害风险管理中的作用等等。 相似文献
19.
Public perceptions of rainfall change in India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
20.
This paper examines the processes by which the generic adaptive capacity of a system is translated into adaptation to climate change, what form it takes, and what factors facilitate or restrain such processes. This is done by an in-depth analysis of climate change adaptation in the Water supply and Wastewater (WW) sector of the Stockholm region. Observed adaptations are categorized in terms of building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptive decisions, and these measures are analyzed using a model of the adaptation process based on organizational learning theories. In particular, the concept of an organization’s actual adaptation space is defined and used as a means to understand the adaptation options that different WW organizations can pursue, as well as why such options might be pursued. The paper finds that most adaptation measures in the WW sector of the Stockholm region are aimed at building the adaptive capacity of the sector. It also finds that the extent to which adaptation measures can be pursued by the WW organizations is determined principally by how able the organization is to justify the additional resources required for adaptation. The analysis shows that there are two main routes to address this: use of climate knowledge to argue that adaptation is needed, and reference to rules and regulations to show that it is required. 相似文献