共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
不断变化的气候可导致前所未有的极端天气和气候事件。这些事件能否构成灾害,在很大程度上取决于脆弱性和暴露度水平。虽然无法完全消除各种灾害风险,但灾害风险管理和气候变化适应的重点是减少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高对各种潜在极端事件不利影响的恢复力,从而促进社会和经济的可持续发展。全面的灾害风险管理要求更加合理地分配对减灾、灾害管理等方面所付出的努力。过去的主流是强调灾害管理,但目前减灾成为关注焦点和挑战。这种主动积极的灾害风险管理与适应有助于避免未来的风险和灾害,而不仅仅是减少已有的风险和灾害,同时这也是灾害风险管理和气候变化适应更加紧密联系的一个背景。灾害风险管理促进气候变化适应从应对当前的影响中汲取经验,而气候变化适应帮助灾害风险管理更加有效地应对未来变化的条件。 相似文献
2.
极端事件对人类系统的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在IPCC特别报告《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》中,极端天气气候事件对人类系统的影响是最重要的影响评估内容之一,其评估结果为：极端影响可能缘于极端天气气候事件,但也可能并非极端事件的后果。暴露度和脆弱性是灾害风险的重要决定因素;极端和非极端天气气候事件的严重程度和影响在很大程度上取决于对这些事件的脆弱性和暴露度水平;人居模式、城市化和社会经济状况的变化已经影响观测到的脆弱性和暴露度的变化趋势;无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,沿海人居环境均暴露于极端事件,并受其影响,如小岛屿国家和亚洲大三角洲地区;脆弱人口还包括难民、国内流离失所的人和那些生活在边远地区的人;极端事件将极大地影响与气候联系密切的部门,如水、农业、食物安全、健康和旅游业。 相似文献
3.
IPCC于2012年发布了《管理极端事件和灾害风险推进气候变化适应特别报告》（简称SREX,图1）。该报告通过IPCC第五次评估报告第一、二工作组的通力合作,第一次将气候科学和社会经济科学相结合,综合评估了气候变化背景下极端灾害的情况及灾害风险管理和适应措施的进展,为各国科学应对气候变化、有效降低灾害风险提供了重要的参考信息。 相似文献
4.
《气候变化研究进展》2014,(3)
IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》认为,气候变化已经对全球自然和人类系统包括11种领域和9个区域(各大洲、两极地区和岛屿)都产生广泛和深远的影响。人类系统对气候变化风险,尤其是对极端气候,有着明显脆弱性和暴露度。未来气候变化将对自然和人类社会造成8种关键风险。气候变化增温幅度的提高将加剧自然和人类系统广泛的、严重的和不可逆影响的风险。通过迭代过程、协同效应为核心的灾害风险管理,自然和人类系统将减少暴露度和脆弱性,增强自然系统和人类社会恢复能力。可持续发展的社会需要适应与减缓相结合,经济、社会、技术,以及政治决策和行动向气候恢复能力路径转型。 相似文献
5.
灾害风险的决定因素及其管理 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
灾害风险的影响不仅由灾害本身决定,更取决于风险的决定因素——暴露度和脆弱性。暴露度和脆弱性是动态的、多维度的。高暴露度和脆弱性是不平衡发展的结果。在气候变化的背景下,只有正确认识暴露度和脆弱性的维度,重视风险沟通和风险累积,选择适当的方法进行风险评估,才能设计和实施有效的灾害风险管理战略以适应长期气候变化。在致力于降低、转移和分担风险的同时,还要对灾害风险进行防御和响应,提高对不断变化的风险的恢复力。通过使用这些整合的灾害风险管理方法,灾害风险管理决策与应对措施会限制暴露度和脆弱性,使气候变化适应成为可能。 相似文献
6.
《干旱气象》2021,39(3)
利用1961—2018年青海省气象资料、地理信息数据和社会经济数据,对青海省干旱灾害风险区划进行研究。结果表明:(1)致灾因子危险性较高的地区主要在青海省东部和南部,较低地区主要在青海省西部。(2)孕灾环境脆弱性整体自西北向东南逐渐降低,西北地区脆弱性风险较高,东南部较低。(3)承灾体暴露风险较高的地区主要在青海省东部,其他地区风险较低。(4)防灾减灾能力较高的地区主要在青海省西北部,而青海省南部和东部防灾减灾能力较低。(5)干旱灾害综合风险总体自东向西递减,高风险区主要在青海省东部地区,低风险区主要在青海省西部地区。(6)青海省干旱灾害高风险区主要由于致灾因子危险性及承灾体暴露性都较高,低风险区主要是致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性较低,且防灾减灾能力强。 相似文献
7.
中巴经济走廊极端低温事件风险评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
危险性、暴露度、脆弱性是极端低温事件风险评估的关键因素。基于1961—2015年中巴经济走廊地区逐日最低气温、人口和耕地等数据,选取极端低温事件强度、频次、持续时间,人口密度,耕地面积占比,植被覆盖度,数字高程模型（DEM),脆弱人口比重和性别比重9个指标,采用层次分析法和熵权法确定各指标组合权重,对中巴经济走廊地区极端低温事件进行风险评估,实现了中巴经济走廊极端低温事件不同风险等级（低、较低、中、较高、高风险）的区划。研究表明,中巴经济走廊内极端低温事件风险分布具有显著的空间差异,极端低温事件风险受极端低温事件强度、人口密度和地形影响较大。区域内绝大部分地区属于低风险地区,高风险地区有巴基斯坦的阿扎德克什米尔地区、吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区、开普省地区、联邦直辖部落地区和中国的喀什地区。其中,阿扎德克什米尔高风险面积占比最高（约35%),联邦直辖部落地区较高风险面积占比最高（约7.7%),吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区中风险地区面积占比最高（约24.6%);中风险地区占比超过10%的还有开普省（12.5%)、阿扎德克什米尔（20%)、联邦直辖部落地区（10.2%)、中国喀什地区（14.3%)。评估结果与历史灾情吻合,可为区域气象灾害风险评估和防灾减灾提供参考。 相似文献
8.
IPCC发布的《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》进一步提升了国际社会对于适应气候变化和可持续发展的认识水平,主要表现在：适应气候变化的研究视角从自然生态脆弱性转向更为广泛的社会经济脆弱性及人类的响应能力;阐明了气候风险与社会发展的关系,明确了适应在气候灾害风险管理中的积极作用;提出了减少脆弱性和暴露度及增加气候恢复能力的有效适应原则;提出了适应极限的概念,指出这一概念对于适应气候变化的政策含义;提出了保障社会可持续发展的气候恢复能力路径;强调要注重适应与减缓的协同作用和综合效应,指出转型适应是应对气候变化影响的必要选择。报告认为,气候变化、影响、适应及社会经济过程不再是一个简单的单向线性关系,需要纳入统一的系统框架下予以认识和理解。 相似文献
9.
10.
《湖北气象》2017,(2)
为了提高广西台风防减灾业务的时效性和精准度,基于自然灾害风险评估理论和方法,根据2010年广西生态遥感本底数据和社会经济空间化数据、地理信息数据,构建耦合自然生态和社会经济的台风灾害承灾体脆弱性指标体系,运用基于GIS的风险指数法,建立台风灾害承灾体脆弱性评价模型,实现了像元尺度的广西台风灾害承灾体脆弱性精细化评价。结果表明:广西台风灾害承灾体高脆弱区域主要分布在桂南、桂东南高暴露于台风灾害的建设用地和生态易损农用地、水土流失严重的裸地,占全区面积的25.9%;低脆弱区主要分布在桂东、桂东北、桂西北、桂西社会经济落后和植被覆盖度较高的山区,占全区面积的45.6%。 相似文献
11.
针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。 相似文献
12.
INFORM Risk Index is a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool that combines hazards, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity indicators with the purpose to support humanitarian crisis management decisions considering the current climate and population. In this exploratory study, we extend the Index to include future climate change and population projections using RCP 8.5 climate projections of coastal flood, river flood and drought, and SSP3 and SSP5 population projections for the period 2036 to 2065. For the three hazards considered, annually 1.3 billion people (150% increase), 1.8 billion people (249% increase) and 1.5 billion people (197% increase) in the mid-21st century are projected to be exposed under the 2015, SSP3 and SSP5 population estimates, respectively. Drought shows the highest exposure levels followed by river flood and then coastal flood, with some regional differences. The largest exposed population is projected in Asia, while the largest percent changes are projected in Africa and Oceania. Countries with largest current and projected risk including non-climatic factors are generally located in Africa, West and South Asia and Central America. An uncertainty analysis of the extended index shows that it is generally robust and not influenced by the methodological choices. The projected changes in risk and coping capacity (vulnerability) due to climate change are generally greater than those associated with population changes. Countries in Europe, Western and Northern Asia and Africa tend to show higher reduction levels in vulnerability (lack of coping capacity) required to nullify the adverse impacts of the projected amplified hazards and exposure. The required increase in coping capacity (decreased vulnerability) can inform decision-making processes on disaster risk reduction and adaptation options to maintain manageable risk levels at global and national scale. Overall, the extended INFORM Risk Index is a means to integrate Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy agendas to create conditions for greater policy impact, more efficient use of resources and more effective action in protecting life, livelihoods and valuable assets. 相似文献
13.
Climate resilient development is emerging as a global policy strategy that integrates climate adaptation and mitigation into sustainable development decisions. For the Caribbean small island developing state (SIDS) of Antigua and Barbuda, the national government is pursuing climate resilient development through multilateral climate funds to protect economic growth from climate and weather-related disasters. Critical adaptation literature argues that interpreting climate vulnerability through an economic growth lens prioritizes economic solutions over other development concerns, which can further the uneven distribution of climate vulnerability and risk. Despite revealing the consequences of market-based climate actions, research has yet to fully understand the economization of vulnerability, which describes the political techniques that render and reconfigure vulnerability in calculated ways. By tracing the discursive interactions between multilateral climate financial institutions and the Antigua and Barbuda national government, this paper empirically examines how vulnerability is economized through climate resilient development. Findings identify the construction of ‘adaptation economies’ in watershed areas, which are economies that can capitalize upon climate challenges within areas of highest vulnerability through fee-for-climate services. The results illustrate that economic growth rationalities characterize climate vulnerability problematizations, which incentivize solutions that enforce the economic development of areas with the highest disaster impacts. Based on these findings, this study emphasizes a need to critically evaluate national actor efforts to re-organize development under climate financing rationales, and its vulnerability-inducing effects. 相似文献
14.
Benjamin L. Preston 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(4):719-732
Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors. 相似文献
15.
Managing disaster risk is increasingly being considered a key line of response in climate adaptation. While funding support for adaptation has been pledged, rationales for support and cost implications are essentially unclear, which may explain why financing is currently only forthcoming at low levels. Various estimates for the costs of adaptation have been suggested, yet the rationale and robustness of the estimates have been difficult to verify. Focusing on weather-related extreme events, we conduct a global assessment of the public finance costs for financially managing extreme event risks. In doing so, we assess countries’ fiscal disaster vulnerability, which we operationalize as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of lost assets and infrastructure. Methods employed include minimum-distance techniques to estimate the tail behaviour of country disaster risks as well as the inclusion of non-linear loss and financing resources relationships. We find that many countries appear fiscal vulnerable and would require assistance from the donor community in order to bolster their fiscal resilience. Our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a global fund for absorbing different levels of country risks. We find the costs of funds covering different risk layers to be in the lower billions of dollars annually, compared to estimates of global climate adaptation which reach to more than USD 100 billion annually. Our estimates relate to today's climate, and while disaster losses have currently not been robustly linked to climate change, physical science has made a strong case in attributing changes in climate extremes to anthropogenic Climate Change. We suggest that estimates of current weather variability and related risks, although also associated with substantial uncertainty, can be interpreted as a baseline for discussion and any future projections of risks. 相似文献
16.
When is it time to adopt different technologies, management strategies, and resource use practices as underlying climate change occurs? We apply risk and decision analysis to test hypotheses about the timing and pace of adaption in response to different profiles of climate change and extremes expressed as yield and income variation for a simulated dryland wheat farm in the United States Great Plains. Climate scenarios include gradual change with typical or increased noise (standard deviation), rapid and large change, and gradual change with extreme events stepped through the simulation. We test decision strategies that might logically be utilized by farmers facing a climate trend that worsens crop enterprise outcomes. Adaptation quickens with the rate of change, especially for decision strategies based on performance thresholds, but is delayed by larger climate variability, especially for decision strategies based on recognizing growing differential between adaptive and non-adaptive performance. Extreme events evoke adaptation sooner than gradual change alone, and in some scenarios extremes evoke premature, inefficient, adaptation. 相似文献
17.
Rasmus Heltberg Paul Bennett Siegel Steen Lau Jorgensen 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(1):89-99
This paper presents and applies a conceptual framework to address human vulnerability to climate change. Drawing upon social risk management and asset-based approaches, the conceptual framework provides a unifying lens to examine links between risks, adaptation, and vulnerability. The result is an integrated approach to increase the capacity of society to manage climate risks with a view to reduce the vulnerability of households and maintain or increase the opportunities for sustainable development. We identify ‘no-regrets’ adaptation interventions, meaning actions that generate net social benefits under all future scenarios of climate change and impacts. We also make the case for greater support for community-based adaptation and social protection and propose a research agenda. 相似文献