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1.
郑艳 《气候变化研究进展》2012,8(2):103-109
IPCC发布的《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》特别报告(SREX)指出,极端事件和灾害的影响很大程度上取决于社会经济系统的风险暴露程度及其脆弱性特征。这意味着,不合理的发展过程将加剧灾害风险及其损失,另一方面,采取积极的减灾和适应行动,能够减小灾害风险并促进社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。SREX报告有助于启发决策者与社会公众,为充满不确定风险的未来进行合理规划,包括关注未来因人口和社会财富增长导致的暴露度和脆弱性增加,在国家和部门层面整合适应、减灾与发展政策,利用多种政策工具加强决策的科学性和灵活性,发挥不同主体在适应治理与灾害风险管理中的作用等等。 相似文献
2.
灾害风险的决定因素及其管理 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
灾害风险的影响不仅由灾害本身决定,更取决于风险的决定因素——暴露度和脆弱性。暴露度和脆弱性是动态的、多维度的。高暴露度和脆弱性是不平衡发展的结果。在气候变化的背景下,只有正确认识暴露度和脆弱性的维度,重视风险沟通和风险累积,选择适当的方法进行风险评估,才能设计和实施有效的灾害风险管理战略以适应长期气候变化。在致力于降低、转移和分担风险的同时,还要对灾害风险进行防御和响应,提高对不断变化的风险的恢复力。通过使用这些整合的灾害风险管理方法,灾害风险管理决策与应对措施会限制暴露度和脆弱性,使气候变化适应成为可能。 相似文献
3.
极端事件对人类系统的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在IPCC特别报告《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》中,极端天气气候事件对人类系统的影响是最重要的影响评估内容之一,其评估结果为：极端影响可能缘于极端天气气候事件,但也可能并非极端事件的后果。暴露度和脆弱性是灾害风险的重要决定因素;极端和非极端天气气候事件的严重程度和影响在很大程度上取决于对这些事件的脆弱性和暴露度水平;人居模式、城市化和社会经济状况的变化已经影响观测到的脆弱性和暴露度的变化趋势;无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,沿海人居环境均暴露于极端事件,并受其影响,如小岛屿国家和亚洲大三角洲地区;脆弱人口还包括难民、国内流离失所的人和那些生活在边远地区的人;极端事件将极大地影响与气候联系密切的部门,如水、农业、食物安全、健康和旅游业。 相似文献
4.
《气候变化研究进展》2014,(3)
IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》认为,气候变化已经对全球自然和人类系统包括11种领域和9个区域(各大洲、两极地区和岛屿)都产生广泛和深远的影响。人类系统对气候变化风险,尤其是对极端气候,有着明显脆弱性和暴露度。未来气候变化将对自然和人类社会造成8种关键风险。气候变化增温幅度的提高将加剧自然和人类系统广泛的、严重的和不可逆影响的风险。通过迭代过程、协同效应为核心的灾害风险管理,自然和人类系统将减少暴露度和脆弱性,增强自然系统和人类社会恢复能力。可持续发展的社会需要适应与减缓相结合,经济、社会、技术,以及政治决策和行动向气候恢复能力路径转型。 相似文献
5.
IPCC于2012年发布了《管理极端事件和灾害风险推进气候变化适应特别报告》（简称SREX,图1）。该报告通过IPCC第五次评估报告第一、二工作组的通力合作,第一次将气候科学和社会经济科学相结合,综合评估了气候变化背景下极端灾害的情况及灾害风险管理和适应措施的进展,为各国科学应对气候变化、有效降低灾害风险提供了重要的参考信息。 相似文献
6.
IPCC发布的《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》进一步提升了国际社会对于适应气候变化和可持续发展的认识水平,主要表现在：适应气候变化的研究视角从自然生态脆弱性转向更为广泛的社会经济脆弱性及人类的响应能力;阐明了气候风险与社会发展的关系,明确了适应在气候灾害风险管理中的积极作用;提出了减少脆弱性和暴露度及增加气候恢复能力的有效适应原则;提出了适应极限的概念,指出这一概念对于适应气候变化的政策含义;提出了保障社会可持续发展的气候恢复能力路径;强调要注重适应与减缓的协同作用和综合效应,指出转型适应是应对气候变化影响的必要选择。报告认为,气候变化、影响、适应及社会经济过程不再是一个简单的单向线性关系,需要纳入统一的系统框架下予以认识和理解。 相似文献
7.
人类活动造成的气候变化已经影响到全球每个地区的极端天气气候和水文事件。全球变暖的任何额外增量都会伴随极端事件更大的变化,如果没有全球性的碳中和行动,极端高温事件的增多增强以及极端冷事件的减少减弱趋势将贯穿整个21世纪,强降水以及一些地区的农业和生态干旱的强度和发生频率也会显著增加。当代的儿童和后代在未来更容易受到气候变化和相关极端事件风险的影响,即使是在相对于工业化以前的1.5℃温升水平下,到21世纪末遭受的极端天气气候和水文事件的数量仍将增加近4倍。针对日益严峻的气候变化与极端事件灾害风险,亟须积极推进“双碳”行动,并大力减少甲烷等其他温室气体的排放。同时,亟须做好防灾减灾相关政策与措施的制定,推进极端事件监测与早期预警系统及恢复力建设,加强对复合极端事件与小概率高影响事件的预防,保障未来几代人的福祉安康和可持续发展。 相似文献
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9.
IPCC近期发布了第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告《气候变化：影响、适应和脆弱性》,其中第7章“健康、福祉和不断变化的社区结构”评估了气候变化对人类健康和福祉的当前影响以及未来风险,提出了应对气候变化的解决方案和适应策略。报告明确指出,气候变化对气候敏感传染病和慢性非传染性疾病,以及精神心理健康等的威胁正在增加,并表现出复合暴露和连锁事件的风险,且预计未来风险还会随着全球变暖而进一步加剧。实施积极和有效的气候变化适应措施并快速采取行动,将会在很大程度上减少和避免气候变化导致的健康风险,但不会完全消除所有风险。报告凸显了气候变化健康影响的严重性和紧迫性,未来需要加大对健康领域适应气候变化的科技创新、规划、行动和资金支持。 相似文献
10.
气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
将耦合暴露度、灾害风险、敏感性与抗压性的脆弱性评估模型应用于中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价,从水资源供需平衡角度分析了气候变化对东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响。结果表明,2000年气候条件下,我国东部季风区接近90%的区域水资源处于中度脆弱及以上状态。其中水资源中度和高度脆弱区域约占全区的75%,极端脆弱区域接近15%。中国北方海河、黄河、淮河和辽河流域的水资源脆弱性最高。未来气候变化影响将加剧水资源脆弱性的风险,不同RCP排放情景下2030年代我国东部季风区水资源中度脆弱及以上区域面积有明显的扩大,极端脆弱区域将达到20%～25%。由于未来需水的进一步增加,中国北方水资源脆弱性的格局并未发生根本变化,而南方东南诸河等区域将面临可能发生的水危机。 相似文献
11.
INFORM Risk Index is a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool that combines hazards, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity indicators with the purpose to support humanitarian crisis management decisions considering the current climate and population. In this exploratory study, we extend the Index to include future climate change and population projections using RCP 8.5 climate projections of coastal flood, river flood and drought, and SSP3 and SSP5 population projections for the period 2036 to 2065. For the three hazards considered, annually 1.3 billion people (150% increase), 1.8 billion people (249% increase) and 1.5 billion people (197% increase) in the mid-21st century are projected to be exposed under the 2015, SSP3 and SSP5 population estimates, respectively. Drought shows the highest exposure levels followed by river flood and then coastal flood, with some regional differences. The largest exposed population is projected in Asia, while the largest percent changes are projected in Africa and Oceania. Countries with largest current and projected risk including non-climatic factors are generally located in Africa, West and South Asia and Central America. An uncertainty analysis of the extended index shows that it is generally robust and not influenced by the methodological choices. The projected changes in risk and coping capacity (vulnerability) due to climate change are generally greater than those associated with population changes. Countries in Europe, Western and Northern Asia and Africa tend to show higher reduction levels in vulnerability (lack of coping capacity) required to nullify the adverse impacts of the projected amplified hazards and exposure. The required increase in coping capacity (decreased vulnerability) can inform decision-making processes on disaster risk reduction and adaptation options to maintain manageable risk levels at global and national scale. Overall, the extended INFORM Risk Index is a means to integrate Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy agendas to create conditions for greater policy impact, more efficient use of resources and more effective action in protecting life, livelihoods and valuable assets. 相似文献
12.
On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts,vulnerability and climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone—other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations. 相似文献
13.
Synoptic weather typing and regression-based downscaling approaches have become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems, particularly those involving extreme impacts. One of the reasons for the popularity of these approaches is their ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables into a coherent index, facilitating the projection of changes in frequency and intensity of future daily extreme weather events and/or their impacts. This paper illustrated the capability of the synoptic weather typing and regression methods to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events and environmental problems for south–central Canada, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-streamflow events, air pollution, and human health. These statistical approaches are helpful in analyzing extreme events and projecting their impacts into the future through three major steps or analysis procedures: (1) historical simulation modeling to identify extreme weather events or their impacts, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts under a changing climate. To realize these steps, it is first necessary to conceptualize the modeling of the meteorology, hydrology and impacts model variables of significance and to apply a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques. Because the climate/weather validation process is critical, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of these three steps. With carefully chosen physically consistent and relevant variables, the results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, show a very good agreement in all applications and extremes tested to date. Overall, the modeled results from climate change studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events and their impacts are generally projected to significantly increase late this century over south–central Canada under a changing climate. The implications of these increases need be taken into consideration and integrated into policies and planning for adaptation strategies, including measures to incorporate climate change into engineering infrastructure design standards and disaster risk reduction measures. This paper briefly summarized these climate change research projects, focusing on the modeling methodologies and results, and attempted to use plain language to make the results more accessible and interesting to the broader informed audience. These research projects have been used to support decision-makers in south–central Canada when dealing with future extreme weather events under climate change. 相似文献
14.
Benjamin L. Preston 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(4):719-732
Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors. 相似文献
15.
A changing climate and more frequent extreme weather events pose challenges to the oil and gas sector. Identifying how these changes will affect oil and gas extraction, transportation, processing, and delivery, and how these industries can adapt to or mitigate any adverse impacts will be vital to this sector’s supply security. This work presents an overview of the sector’s vulnerability to a changing climate. It addresses the potential for Natech hazards and proposes risk reduction measures, including mitigation and adaptation options. Assessment frameworks to ensure the safety of people, the environment, and investments in the oil and gas sector in the face of climate change are presented and their limitations discussed. It is argued that a comprehensive and systemic analysis framework for risk assessment is needed. The paper concludes that climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events. The sector needs to take climate change seriously, assess its own vulnerability, and take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate any potentially negative effects. 相似文献
16.
Donna Green Lisa Alexander Kathy Mclnnes John Church Neville Nicholls Neil White 《Climatic change》2010,102(3-4):405-433
Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term. 相似文献
17.
自IPCC第四次评估报告以来,对城市和农村地区气候变化影响、脆弱性、适应和风险管理文献都在增加。第五次评估报告取得了进展。主要包括：气候变化风险、脆弱性与所受的影响在全球范围不同规模、不同经济水平和地理位置的城市中心均在增加。改善基本服务不足的状况以及建设有恢复力的基础设施系统,可以显著降低城市地区的脆弱性和暴露度,特别是对于风险和脆弱性最高的人群来说。气候变化对农村地区的主要影响将体现在对淡水供应、粮食安全和农业收入的影响等方面。发展中国家农村人口更容易遭受多种非气候压力,包括农业投入不足、土地与自然资源政策问题和环境退化。包括增加可再生能源的供给、鼓励生物燃料种植或发展中国家减少砍伐森林和森林退化而造成的碳排放（REDD+）项目等在内的气候政策,将对有些农村地区有重要的间接影响,既有正面的影响（增加就业机会）,也有负面的影响（景观变化和稀有资源冲突增多）。 相似文献