共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
极端天气气候事件是指天气（气候）的状态严重偏离其平均态时所发生的天气（天候）事件,可以认为是异常或很少发生的事件,在统计意义上称为极端事件。 相似文献
2.
与IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）相比,在第六次评估报告（AR6）评估中,观测的极端天气气候事件变化证据,特别是归因于人为影响的证据加强。人类活动造成的气候变化已影响到全球每个区域的许多极端天气气候事件。随着未来全球变暖进一步加剧,预估极端热事件、强降水、农业生态干旱的强度和频次以及强台风（飓风）比例等将增加,越罕见的极端天气气候事件,其发生频率的增长百分比越大。这些结论再次凸显了应对气候变化和极端天气气候事件的必要性和紧迫性。 相似文献
3.
帕尔哈特·乌斯曼 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2002,25(2):33-34
今年３月２３日，是新千年的第二个“世界气象日”，纪念主题是“降低对天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”。选择这样一个主题，一方面表达了国际社会对天气和气候灾害及其给人类带来的危害的强烈关注，另一方面也是认识到通过加强监测和预报，可以最大限度地降低天气和气候极端事件所带来的不利影响，并希望通过宣传这一主题，呼吁各国进一步加强气象工作，保护地球母亲的气候。我们生活的地球，是一个天文学至今为止所能确定的、唯一的有繁荣的生态系统与人类文明存在的天体。这与她独特的气候条件密切相关。她与太阳的距离、她的自转周期、巨… 相似文献
4.
极端天气与气候事件受到全球变暖影响吗? 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
<正>极端天气与气候事件对社会与经济和公众生活与生命的影响很大,因此受到公众和政策制定者的极犬关注。近些年的热点问题是:在全球变暖的背景下,极端天气与气候事件是否会受到影响?要回答这个问题,首先需要了解近些年使用的耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)气候模式对极端天气与气候事件的模拟效果,其次是利用CMIP5气候模式评估观洲到的极端天气与气候事件的变化是否是由全球变暖造成的,最后是利用CMIP5气候模式考 相似文献
5.
罗亚丽 《气候变化研究进展》2012,8(2):90-98
自1950年以来的观测证据表明,有些极端天气和气候事件已经发生了变化。全球尺度上,人为影响可能已经导致极端日最低和最高温度升高;由于平均海平面上升,人类活动可能已对沿海极端高水位事件的增加产生了影响;具有中等信度的是,人为影响已导致全球强降水增加;由于热带气旋历史记录的不确定性、缺乏对热带气旋与气候变化之间关联的物理机制的完整认识及热带气旋自然变率的程度,将可检测到的热带气旋活动变化归因于人为影响仅具有低信度。将单一的极端事件变化归因于人为气候变化具有挑战性。对极端事件变化预估的信度取决于事件的类型、区域和季节、观测资料的数量和质量、基本物理过程的认知水平及模式对其模拟的可靠性。 相似文献
6.
2003年的极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件 总被引：12，自引：6，他引：6
气候变化正在进行着,极端天气和气候事件似乎在增加.2003年出现了一些创历史记录的极端事件,例如,年初俄罗斯和美国的暴风雪与严寒,3月份中东地区的强沙尘暴,印度季风前的热浪,夏季欧洲南部和中国南方大范围的炎热酷暑,6月底、7月初我国淮河流域的暴雨洪灾,9月份南极上空创历史记录最大最深的臭氧洞等等.这些极端天气和气候事件产生的机制及其可预测、预报性,有待深入的分析与研究. 相似文献
7.
极端事件对人类系统的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在IPCC特别报告《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》中,极端天气气候事件对人类系统的影响是最重要的影响评估内容之一,其评估结果为：极端影响可能缘于极端天气气候事件,但也可能并非极端事件的后果。暴露度和脆弱性是灾害风险的重要决定因素;极端和非极端天气气候事件的严重程度和影响在很大程度上取决于对这些事件的脆弱性和暴露度水平;人居模式、城市化和社会经济状况的变化已经影响观测到的脆弱性和暴露度的变化趋势;无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,沿海人居环境均暴露于极端事件,并受其影响,如小岛屿国家和亚洲大三角洲地区;脆弱人口还包括难民、国内流离失所的人和那些生活在边远地区的人;极端事件将极大地影响与气候联系密切的部门,如水、农业、食物安全、健康和旅游业。 相似文献
8.
商丘市极端天气气候事件变化趋势 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用1961~2004年逐日气象资料,分析了商丘市近44年来极端天气气候事件的变化趋势。结果表明:近44年来,商丘市暴雨、大暴雨和达到极端干旱标准的总天数都存在增加的趋势,但是这种趋势在统计上并不显著。极端高温事件年发生频率增加而极端低温事件发生频率减少;季节变化以冬、夏两季最为明显,其中冬季极端高温事件增加而极端低温事件减少,变化趋势都通过了99%的显著性水平检验;夏季与冬季变化趋势相反,其中极端高温事件显著减少,通过95%的显著性水平检验。寒冷期长度和炎热期长度都显著减少,分别通过99%和95%的显著性水平检验。 相似文献
9.
近年来,由于人类活动及自然因素等的综合影响,全球气候不断出现大范围的异常现象,极端天气气候事件频繁发生,给社会、经济的持续发展和人民生命财产造成了严重的影响和损失.而地处中纬度亚洲大陆东岸,祖国东北端的黑龙江省,幅员辽阔,地形复杂,季风气候明显,极端天气气候事件导致的灾害比较频繁.暴雨洪涝、干旱、低温冻害、暴雪、沙尘暴、冰雹、大雾、雷暴、龙卷、大风等气象灾害每年造成的损失占本省整个自然灾害损失的70%左右,对人民的生产生活造成极大损失.尤其是近10余年来黑龙江省发生极端天气气候事件频繁. 相似文献
10.
人类活动造成的气候变化已经影响到全球每个地区的极端天气气候和水文事件。全球变暖的任何额外增量都会伴随极端事件更大的变化,如果没有全球性的碳中和行动,极端高温事件的增多增强以及极端冷事件的减少减弱趋势将贯穿整个21世纪,强降水以及一些地区的农业和生态干旱的强度和发生频率也会显著增加。当代的儿童和后代在未来更容易受到气候变化和相关极端事件风险的影响,即使是在相对于工业化以前的1.5℃温升水平下,到21世纪末遭受的极端天气气候和水文事件的数量仍将增加近4倍。针对日益严峻的气候变化与极端事件灾害风险,亟须积极推进“双碳”行动,并大力减少甲烷等其他温室气体的排放。同时,亟须做好防灾减灾相关政策与措施的制定,推进极端事件监测与早期预警系统及恢复力建设,加强对复合极端事件与小概率高影响事件的预防,保障未来几代人的福祉安康和可持续发展。 相似文献
11.
Global warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system. 相似文献
12.
Tianjun ZHOU Wenxia ZHANG Lixia ZHANG Robin CLARK Cheng QIAN Qinghong ZHANG Hui QIU Jie JIANG Xing ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(10):1598-1607
The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880. In addition to large-scale warming, 2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes. Here, a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021, with a focus on China, along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented. Nine extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted, including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring, consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year, extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer, as well as heatwaves, persistent heavy rainfall, and a cold surge during fall. Potential links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here, providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global perspective. This serves as a reference for climate event attribution, process understanding, and high-resolution modeling of extreme events. 相似文献
13.
极端天气气候事件变化对荒漠化、土地退化和粮食安全的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
土地是人类赖以生存的重要资源,在受气候变化影响的同时其状况变化也在气候系统中起着关键作用。IPCC最新发布的气候变化与土地特别报告（SRCCL）系统反映了关于荒漠化、土地退化、可持续土地管理、粮食安全和陆地生态系统碳通量方面的最新科学认知,并探讨了如何进行更加可持续性的土地利用和管理以应对与土地相关的气候变化问题。文中从极端事件变化及其影响的角度,结合SRCCL与其他相关文献,予以分析和总结。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化已经并将继续影响荒漠化和土地退化进程并对粮食安全造成冲击;而土地对气候系统的反馈作用,又会加剧气候变化并提高极端事件发生的概率和严重程度。面对气候变化尤其是极端事件给土地带来的巨大压力,必须坚持可持续的土地管理,通过减少包括土地和粮食系统在内的所有行业的排放,才有可能实现到21世纪末将全球平均升温控制在相对工业化前水平2℃以内的目标,以减轻气候变化对土地和粮食系统的负面影响。 相似文献
14.
全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。 相似文献
15.
M.Monirul Qader Mirza 《Climate Policy》2003,3(3):233-248
Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development. 相似文献
16.
Climate Extremes: Selected Review and Future Research Directions 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
17.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):233-248
Abstract Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development. 相似文献