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1.
The Latrobe aquifer in the Gippsland Basin in southeastern Australia is a prime example for emerging resource conflicts in Australian sedimentary basins. The Latrobe Group forms a major freshwater aquifer in the onshore Gippsland Basin, and is an important reservoir for oil and gas in both onshore and offshore parts of the basin. The Latrobe Group and overlying formations contain substantial coal resources that are being mined in the onshore part of the basin. These may have coal-seam-gas potential and, in addition, the basin is considered prospective for its geothermal energy and CO2 storage potential. The impacts of groundwater extraction related to coal-mine dewatering, public water supply, and petroleum production on the flow of variable-density formation water has been assessed using freshwater hydraulic heads and impelling force vectors. Groundwater flows from the northern and western edges towards the central part of the basin. Groundwater discharge occurs mainly offshore along the southern margin. Post-stress hydraulic heads show significant declines near the petroleum fields and in the coal mining areas. A hydrodynamic model of the Latrobe aquifer was used to simulate groundwater recovery in the Latrobe aquifer from different scenarios of cessation of groundwater and other fluid extractions. 相似文献
2.
Kun Sang Lee 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(1):251-262
Numerical investigations and a thermohydraulic evaluation are presented for two-well models of an aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system operating under a continuous flow regime. A three-dimensional numerical model for groundwater flow and heat transport is used to analyze the thermal energy storage in the aquifer. This study emphasizes the influence of regional groundwater flow on the heat transfer and storage of the system under various operation scenarios. For different parameters of the system, performances were compared in terms of the temperature of recovered water and the temperature field in the aquifer. The calculated temperature at the producing well varies within a certain range throughout the year, reflecting the seasonal (quarterly) temperature variation of the injected water. The pressure gradient across the system, which determines the direction and velocity of regional groundwater flow, has a substantial influence on the convective heat transport and performance of aquifer thermal storage. Injection/production rate and geometrical size of the aquifer used in the model also impact the predicted temperature distribution at each stage and the recovery water temperature. The hydrogeological-thermal simulation is shown to play an integral part in the prediction of performance of processes as complicated as those in ATES systems. 相似文献
3.
E. Annette Hernandez Venkatesh Uddameri Marcelo A. Arreola Jr. 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(6):2673-2686
The co-location of desalination plants with existing or proposed power plants can bring forth economic and ecological advantages in terms of reducing the costs of water intake and reducing fish impingement. However, fossil fuel-based power plants are a source of ozone precursors and the added strain of power needed for the energy intensive desalination process increases these pollutants into the atmosphere. Furthermore, withdrawal from brackish water sources puts a stress on slowly replenishing aquifers. Additionally, the resulting concentrate is highly saline and disposal into ecologically sensitive bays and estuaries may be problematic. Balancing these limitations with the need for freshwater is of great importance for sustainability of water scarce arid and semi-arid regions and also requires a holistic multimedia impact evaluation. Therefore, an integrated system of systems approach is adopted in this study and a decision support system that integrates the flow of water, concentrate and resulting pollutants through two engineered (power plant and desalination plant) as well as three natural systems (coastal bay, aquifer and the atmosphere) is developed to study the co-location of a power plant and a desalination plant near the City of Corpus Christi in South Texas. The objective of the model is to minimize the amount of groundwater extraction and minimize the amount of water extracted from the bay to emphasize water and ecosystem conservation, respectively. These objectives, in turn, are subject to various other constraints including (1) conservation of mass; (2) air quality regulations; (3) salinity regulation policies; (4) groundwater management constraints; (5) water demand requirements; and (6) energy demand constraints. The results indicate that when conservation of the aquifer is weighted more, less water is pulled from the aquifer until later time periods. The salinity of the bay increases and creates a need for a greater amount of power necessary to process the saline water which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric loading of ozone precursors. Therefore, the conservation of groundwater scenario is limited by the air quality standards. Alternatively, when the goal is to conserve the ecological integrity of the bay while meeting freshwater demands, the model is bound by the prescribed drawdown constraint that limits the amount of water that can be extracted from the aquifer. The results from the study indicate that blending saline bay water with brackish groundwater and using cleaner burning fossil fuels that have limited air quality impacts will enhance the performance of the co-located power and desalination operations. The results of the study highlight the need for an integrated multimedia evaluation in assessing the feasibility of desalination in areas with marginal air quality. 相似文献
4.
地面沉降主要由深层地下水开采造成,含水层的压缩释水是深层地下水开采量主要构成来源,同时随其压缩变形孔隙比减小造成储水系数、渗透系数的减小,对弱透水层非弹性释水量、越流补给量造成影响。地面沉降过程中的水文地质参数非线性变化及对承压含水层系统的反馈作用也成为水文地质领域的前沿问题。为对地下水开采量、沉降量、地质参数变化以及给水能力变化之间的关系做一个较为定量定性的探究,以含水层压缩过程中的物理机制为依据,并基于沧州地区深层承压含水层的地下水位变化过程和水文地质参数,采用数学手段构建储水系数和渗透系数变化的一维非线性沉降模型。模拟结果显示随承压水头下降,储水系数最高可减小77%,含水层系统的给水能力和储水能力会随压缩变形减小50%甚至更多。研究成果为深入认识水文地质参数与应力变化相关关系、科学评价承压含水层地下水储水调节能力有重要借鉴意义。 相似文献
5.
Venkatesh Uddameri E. Annette Hernandez Felipe Estrada 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(6):2559-2572
As groundwater is a slowly replenishing resource that can be depleted relatively easily, there is a growing interest in actively managing aquifer resources. Participatory, multi-stakeholder driven approaches are increasingly being adopted to plan groundwater use such that the resource is available for present as well as future needs. The state of Texas requires neighboring GCDs (local regulatory bodies) within a groundwater management area (GMA) to engage in joint planning activities and define desired future conditions (DFCs) for the aquifers they regulate. The DFCs are then used to estimate modeled available groundwater which defines how much water is available within an aquifer in a given region. The groundwater joint planning process was modeled using a combined simulation–optimization modeling scheme in this study. The response surface methodology was used to establish regional-scale aquifer stress-response relationships. In addition to average county-wide drawdown, other aquifer responses including stream-aquifer exchanges, coastal-aquifer exchanges and GMA-wide drawdown were considered to define the DFCs. A constrained linear regression was used in conjunction with a regional groundwater flow model to obtain the necessary response functions which formed the basis for a crisp optimization model whose objective was maximizing groundwater production while ensuring that the prescribed DFCs are not violated (constraints). This model was transformed into a fuzzy linear programming model to account for the fact that groundwater planners find it difficult to specify DFCs with a high degree of precision. Using linear membership functions, the decision makers’ preferences were captured using two values––a minimum preferred cut-off and the maximum allowable value for the metric. For estimating groundwater availability, the fuzzy optimization model reconciles production and maximizes the goal and the constraints representing the DFCs. The developed framework was illustrated by applying it to joint planning in Groundwater Management Area 15 in South Texas. The optimization models were highly sensitive to acceptable average drawdowns, while the coastal-aquifer interactions had secondary impacts. The fuzzy optimization model yielded lower estimates of groundwater availability in comparison to the crisp optimization scheme. The fuzzy optimization model is therefore consistent with the precautionary principle and recommended for use in the early stages of groundwater planning where incomplete understanding of the aquifer dynamics precludes specification of precise limits for the DFCs. 相似文献
6.
Water extractions in coastal areas have to deal with salt water intrusion and lowering of hydraulic heads in valuable ecosystems.
Therefore, sustainable management of fresh water resources in these areas is crucial. This is illustrated here with two water
extractions in the western Belgian coastal plain which extract groundwater from a phreatic dune aquifer. One water extraction
faced problems with salt water intrusion, while lowering of hydraulic heads was an issue for both. To remedy the salt water
intrusion, it was found that decreasing the extraction rate was the only solution. To offset this and to increase hydraulic
heads around both extractions, it was decided to artificially recharge the aquifer of the second extraction with tertiary
treated wastewater. By taking these interventions, the combined production capacity of the water extractions was increased
with 56% whereas 27% less water was extracted from the dune aquifer itself. Extraction history and the effects of interventions
are illustrated for both water extractions with water quality data and fresh water head observations. A more detailed insight
in groundwater flow and fresh–salt water distribution in the aquifer is provided by simulating the evolution of the water
extractions with a 3D density dependent groundwater flow model. 相似文献
7.
Communities and water utilities are increasingly being forced to implement more hydrogeologically complex alternative water supply and storage options to meet increasing freshwater demands. The performance of managed aquifer recharge projects, including aquifer storage and recovery, is controlled by the movement and mixing of stored freshwater and native groundwater, and fluid–rock interactions, which, in turn, are strongly influenced by aquifer heterogeneity. Advanced borehole geophysical logging techniques developed for the oil and gas industry such as neutron-gamma ray spectroscopy, microresistivity imaging, and nuclear magnetic resonance, can provide hitherto unavailable fine-scale data on porosity (total and effective), hydraulic conductivity, salinity, and the mineralogical composition of aquifers. Data on aquifer heterogeneity obtained from advanced borehole geophysics logs, combined with information on larger-scale aquifer hydraulics obtained from pumping tests, have the potential for improving aquifer characterization and modeling needed for feasibility assessments and the design and optimization of the operation of managed aquifer recharge systems. 相似文献
8.
Artificial groundwater recharge to a semi-arid basin: case study of Mujib aquifer,Jordan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Mujib watershed is an important groundwater basin which is considered a major source for drinking and irrigation water in
Jordan. Increased dependence on groundwater needs improved aquifer management with respect to understanding deeply recharge
and discharge issues, planning rates withdrawal, and facing water quality problems arising from industrial and agricultural
contamination. The efficient management of this source depends on reliable estimates of the recharge to groundwater and is
needed in order to protect Mujib basin from depletion. Artificial groundwater recharge was investigated in this study as one
of the important options to face water scarcity and to improve groundwater storage in the aquifer. A groundwater model based
on the MODFLOW program, calibrated under both steady- and unsteady-state conditions, was used to investigate different groundwater
management scenarios that aim at protecting the Mujib basin. The scenarios include variations of abstraction levels combined
with different artificial groundwater recharge quantities. The possibilities of artificial groundwater recharge from existing
and proposed dams as well as reclaimed municipal wastewater were investigated. Artificial recharge options considered in this
study are mainly through injecting water directly to the aquifer and through infiltration from reservoir. Three scenarios
were performed to predict the aquifer system response under different artificial recharge options (low, moderate, and high)
which then compared with no action (recharge) scenario. The best scenario that provides a good recovery for the groundwater
table and that can be feasible is founded to be by reducing current abstraction rates by 20% and implementing the moderate
artificial recharge rates of 26 million(M)m3/year. The model constructed in this study helps decision makers and planners in selecting optimum management schemes suitable
for such arid and semi-arid regions. 相似文献
9.
Ending groundwater overdraft in hydrologic-economic systems 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Groundwater overdraft occurs when extraction exceeds both natural and induced aquifer recharge over long periods. While ultimately
unsustainable and invariably having detrimental effects, overdrafting aquifers is common and may be temporarily beneficial
within a long-term water management strategy. Once a region chooses to end overdrafting, water management must change if increased
water scarcity is to be avoided. Integrated water-management models allow aquifers and overdraft to be analyzed as part of
a regional water-supply system. Incorporating economics into the model establishes a framework for evaluating the costs and
effects of groundwater management actions on the entire system. This economic-engineering approach is applied in a case study
of the Tulare Basin in California, USA, where previous economic studies showed optimal pumping depths have been reached. A
hydro-economic optimization model is used to study the economic effects and water management actions that accompany ending
overdraft. Results show that when overdraft is prohibited, groundwater banking using conjunctive-use infrastructure built
between 1990 and 2005 largely annuls the cost of not overdrafting. The integrated economic-engineering approach quantifies
effects of groundwater policies on complex regional water-resource systems and suggests promising strategies for reducing
the economic costs of ending aquifer overexploitation. 相似文献
10.
Hydrogeology and sustainable future groundwater abstraction from the Agua Verde aquifer in the Atacama Desert,northern Chile 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Javier Urrutia Jorge Jódar Agustín Medina Christian Herrera Guillermo Chong Harry Urqueta José A. Luque 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(6):1989-2007
The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m3/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity. 相似文献
11.
Hamza Jerbi Sylvain Massuel Christian Leduc Jamila Tarhouni 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(10):236
The aquifer of the semi-arid Kairouan plain has been exploited for decades to supply the growing irrigated agriculture and the need of drinking water. In parallel, the major hydraulic works drastically changed the natural groundwater recharge processes. The continuous groundwater level drop observed since the 1970s naturally raises the question of groundwater storage sustainability. To date, hydrogeological studies focused on groundwater fluxes, but the total amount of groundwater stored in the aquifer system has never been fully estimated. This is the purpose of the present paper. A complete database of all available geological, hydrogeological and geophysical data was created to build a 3D lithology model. Then, the lithological units were combined with the hydraulic properties to estimate the groundwater storage. Over the 700 km2 of the modelled area, the estimated storage in 2013 was around 18?×?109 m3 (equivalent to 80 times the annual consumption of 2010) with a highly variable spatial distribution. In 45 years (1968–2013), 12% of the amount of groundwater stored in the aquifer has been depleted. According to these results, individual farms will face strong regional disparities for their access to groundwater in the near future. 相似文献
12.
13.
Artificial recharge of groundwater: hydrogeology and engineering 总被引：25，自引：4，他引：25
Herman Bouwer 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(1):121-142
Artificial recharge of groundwater is achieved by putting surface water in basins, furrows, ditches, or other facilities
where it infiltrates into the soil and moves downward to recharge aquifers. Artificial recharge is increasingly used for short-
or long-term underground storage, where it has several advantages over surface storage, and in water reuse. Artificial recharge
requires permeable surface soils. Where these are not available, trenches or shafts in the unsaturated zone can be used, or
water can be directly injected into aquifers through wells. To design a system for artificial recharge of groundwater, infiltration
rates of the soil must be determined and the unsaturated zone between land surface and the aquifer must be checked for adequate
permeability and absence of polluted areas. The aquifer should be sufficiently transmissive to avoid excessive buildup of
groundwater mounds. Knowledge of these conditions requires field investigations and, if no fatal flaws are detected, test
basins to predict system performance. Water-quality issues must be evaluated, especially with respect to formation of clogging
layers on basin bottoms or other infiltration surfaces, and to geochemical reactions in the aquifer. Clogging layers are managed
by desilting or other pretreatment of the water, and by remedial techniques in the infiltration system, such as drying, scraping,
disking, ripping, or other tillage. Recharge wells should be pumped periodically to backwash clogging layers. Electronic supplementary
material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer LINK server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10040-001-0182-4.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
14.
Groundwater optimization model for sustainable management of the Valley of Puebla aquifer, Mexico 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Edith R. Salcedo-Sánchez Ma. Vicenta Esteller Sofía E. Garrido Hoyos Manuel Martínez-Morales 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(1):337-351
The Valley of Puebla aquifer (VPA), at the central region of Mexico, is subject to intensive exploitation to satisfy the urban and industrial demand in the region. As a result of this increased exploitation, a number of state and federal agencies in charge of water management are concerned about the problems associated with the aquifer (decline of groundwater table, deterioration in water quality, poor well productivity and increased pumping and water treatment costs). This study presents a groundwater management model that combines “MODFLOW” simulation with optimization tools “MODRSP”. This simulation–optimization model for groundwater evaluates a complex range of management options to identify the strategies that best fit the objectives for allocating resources in the VPA. Four hypothetical scenarios were defined to analyze the response of the hydrogeological system for future pumping schemes. Based on the simulation of flow with the MODFLOW program, promising results for the implementation of the optimization of water quantity were found in scenarios 3 and 4. However, upon comparison and analysis of the feasibility of recovery of the piezometric level (considering the policy of gradual reductions of pumping), scenario 4 was selected for optimization purposes. The response functions of scenario 4 were then obtained and optimized, establishing an extraction rate of 204.92 millions of m3/year (Mm3/year). The reduction in groundwater extraction will be possible by substituting the volume removed by 35 wells (that should be discontinued) by the same volume of water from another source. 相似文献
15.
Reliable estimates for how much water can be safely withdrawn from aquifers without harming the environment is crucial for
identifying new water supply sources and fostering sustainable growth. Methodologies to estimate groundwater availability
that are rooted in science and yet accomplishable with minimal data are particularly useful for effectual aquifer management.
Also, as groundwater management is increasingly becoming a participatory process, these methodologies must be transparent
and easily understood by a wide range of audiences. In addition, proposed approaches must also reconcile imprecision and uncertainties
arising from lack of data, differences in stakeholders’ perceptions and limitations associated with incomplete aquifer characterization.
In this study, the fundamental concept of water balance is coupled with fuzzy regression to develop a scheme for assessing
regional-scale groundwater availability. Using the mass-balance approach, anthropogenic water demands (municipal, industrial
and agricultural) and ecological demands (baseflows to rivers) can be incorporated into the availability estimation process.
The use of fuzzy regression enables the specification of decision makers’ preferences to the adopted procedure and renders
the parameter estimation to be more robust in the presence of extreme values. The methodology is illustrated by using it to
estimate groundwater availability in the Gulf coast aquifer, underlying Refugio County, TX, USA. 相似文献
16.
Wind power has become one of the fastest growing renewable energy. With the large-scale deployment of wind farms in the world, people have started to pay attention to the impact of wind farms on the ecological environment and climate. This paper summarized the impact of wind farms on climate and ecological environment by investigating relevant literature: In the areas of wind farms, on the one hand, the set-up of wind turbines changes original aerodynamic roughness height and strengthens the dragging of the land surface against turbulence, directly affecting the turbulent motion of the boundary layer, resulting in the changes of intensity and pattern of material energy and water vapor exchange between land surface and near-surface atmosphere, further affecting the atmospheric circulation and climate. On the other hand, wind turbines convert the majority of the wind kinetic energy into electric energy, which produces the wake effect of the wind turbine. The budget patterns and spatial and temporal distribution of large-scale kinetic energy in the boundary layer are changed correspondingly, generating changes in various fluxes (heat flux, water vapor flux, etc.) in the atmosphere, which affect temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Generally, the warming or cooling effect of wind farms on the near-surface is related to the stability of atmosphere. However, simulations in the global climate model showed that the average impact of wind farms on global climate is small, much smaller than the expected changes in greenhouse gas emissions and the interannual changes in natural climate.Wind power emits almost no carbon dioxide and pollutants. Compared with other traditional energy sources, it reduces water consumption but may generate some negative ecological impacts such as animal habitats, bird collisions, and noise, vision impact. However, some measures can be taken to mitigate these adverse effects. 相似文献
17.
《Journal of African Earth Sciences》2000,30(3):475-487
More than 90% of the rural villages and settlements throughout Botswana have water supplies based on groundwater. The annual increase in water demand is about 0.3 × 106 m3 and on average around 60 new boreholes are needed annually. In parallel with construction of new production boreholes for rural villages, there is an on-going rehabilitation of existing boreholes which have lost their original yield due to clogging, corrosion, encrustation, etc. The total annual cost of siting, drilling and testing of around 100 new production boreholes for rural villages water supply is estimated at around US$7.5 million (1997 price).Modelling of every groundwater resource for rural village water supply in Botswana is currently not feasible due to a lack of relevant and detailed information. A modelling exercise will assess the resource of the aquifer being studied, but can not give an assessment of the yield of each production borehole. Groundwater supply to rural villages is therefore currently based on the abstraction possible from established production boreholes. Test pumping data from these boreholes are the prime information in such an assessment. However safety factors and the fact that drought periods of longer duration are common in a semi-arid environment must also be considered. A computer program package TESTCURV developed by the Department of Water Affairs is a most useful tool in the assessment of yields for production boreholes for village water supply in Botswana, based on the performance of the well and the aquifer. No replenishment is assumed and the question of sustainable yield is not addressed by the program. 相似文献
18.
The study presented in this paper constitutes an initial approach to the problematic task of evaluating the effects of possible
climate change on natural water recharge to aquifers. To estimate such effects, a purpose-designed mathematical model termed
Estimation of Recharge in Over-exploited Aquifers (ERAS) has been used. It enables to simulate the monthly water recharge
to an aquifer, provided that prior knowledge of the exploitation to which it is subjected and the variation caused by these
two actions on the piezometric level of the aquifer is available. The basic data required for its application are: precipitation,
temperature, groundwater extraction, stored groundwater surface and storage coefficient. The main advantage presented by this
model is its independence of the mechanism by which water is displaced through the ground and within the unsaturated zone.
The ERAS code was applied to four over-exploited karstic aquifers in Alto Vinalopó (Alicante, Spain) with the goal of generating
a synthesized series of values for natural groundwater recharge in each of the aquifers for the 100 years of the twentieth
century. Each series thus obtained after being grouped into decades was subjected to statistical processing, which revealed
that in every case a logarithmically decreasing trend was present. 相似文献
19.
GIS-based impact assessment of land-use changes on groundwater quality: study from a rapidly urbanizing region of South India 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Haris H. Khan Arina Khan Shakeel Ahmed Jerome Perrin 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(6):1289-1302
This study attempts to assess the influence of changing land-use patterns on the groundwater quality of the hard rock aquifer
system in the Maheshwaram watershed, near Hyderabad, India. The study area is a rapidly urbanizing region with land development
progressing at a fast pace. To study the impact of this rapid urbanization and overall land-use transition, a groundwater
quality index (GQI) was prepared within a geographical information system (GIS). The GQI integrates the different water quality
parameters to give a final index value that can be used for spatio-temporal comparisons. The land-use transitions were closely
monitored from 2003 to 2008 using multispectral satellite images. The land-use pattern has changed drastically with an increase
in the built-up area at the expense of other land uses. The analysis reveals a rapid deterioration of groundwater quality
related mainly to the increase in built-up land with unsewered sanitation and poultry farms. Seasonal variability of the groundwater
quality was also assessed. Mean GQI decreased from 84.16 to 83.26 over a period of 5 years from 2003 to 2008, while seasonal
variability of water quality increased. GQI and Seasonal Variability of water quality were integrated in GIS to yield a groundwater
sustainability map, in terms of water quality. Zones of sustainable and unsustainable groundwater use were demarcated for
better decision making related to municipal land allotment in this rapidly urbanizing region. 相似文献
20.
吉林省西部是我国主要粮食产区,但区内农业水利规划管理同时面临潜水资源与生态环境双重风险。近20年来,区内曾尝试多种水资源利用模式,但缺少不同模式应用效果的定量化对比。文章建立了不同水资源利用模式,对比分析各模式的水资源与次生盐碱化风险。以洮儿河流域为例,采用循环神经网络预测2019—2023年该地区大气降水和地表水对地下水补给量;通过随机数值模拟预测现状开采、连续干旱、无序开采、地下水库建设、节水灌溉、旱田改水田6种情形下,区内潜水水位空间分布特征。以防止次生盐碱化为目标,定义水位埋深上限为1 m;以含水介质厚度为参考,定义水位埋深下限为12 m。遴选适合吉林省西部地区地下水资源可持续利用模式。结果显示:无序开采是导致区内水资源枯竭的主要诱因;地下水库建设和旱改水工程有助于潜水资源维护,但长期运行可加剧生态环境风险。节水灌溉（净采强度为2.0×108～3.0×108 m3/a）是降低区内水资源风险和生态环境风险的最佳方式。文章采用的神经网络—随机模拟分析方法成功预测了地下水位变化驱动因子和地下水位中长期变化趋势,为我国干旱半干旱地区潜水资源利用方案制定提供了新方法。 相似文献