Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera     

《Advances in water resources》2013

Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to the eradication of the disease in Haiti. The projections, although strongly depending on still uncertain epidemiological processes, show an endemic, seasonal pattern establishing in the region, which can be better forestalled by an improvement of the sanitation system only, rather than by vaccination alone. We thus conclude that hydrologic drivers and water resources management prove central to prediction, emergency management and long-term control of epidemic cholera.  相似文献   

Using the damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for calibrating vulnerability models of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti)     

S. Molina  Y. Torres  B. Benito  M. Navarro  D. Belizaire 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(4):1459-1478

After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and \(\hbox {Vs}^{30}\) models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.  相似文献   

The Beni-Ilmane (North-Central Algeria) Earthquake Sequence of May 2010     

A. K. Yelles-Chaouche  I. Abacha  F. Semmane  H. Beldjoudi  H. Djellit 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(7):1283-1298

Starting on 14 May 2010 and lasting several months, the village of Beni-Ilmane (Msila District, North-Central Algeria) and its surroundings were struck by an important seismic crisis marked by three successive moderate shocks (5.0 ≤ M _d ≤ 5.2). This sequence of events caused severe damage in the Beni-Ilmane village and in the epicentral area. The poor quality of masonry construction and the cumulative effects of the large number of aftershock events played a key role in the destruction. To follow this earthquake sequence, 11 temporary seismic stations, in addition to the permanent stations of the Algerian seismic network, were deployed in the region. A representative set of well located aftershocks in the period of maximum activity (lasting 18 days) were selected. The horizontal distribution of the aftershocks shows two main earthquake clusters located near Beni-Ilmane village, one cluster oriented E–W and the other oriented NNE–SSW, crossing the first cluster at its eastern tip. The aftershocks distribution suggests that the three main shocks ruptured two distinct and adjacent fault segments of about 8 km length. The focal mechanisms of the first and third events, located in the NNE–SSW cluster, show near-vertical left-lateral strike-slip fault planes. In the second cluster, oriented E–W, focal mechanisms show a high-angle reverse fault. A field survey, initiated immediately after the first main shock, identified surface fissures generated by the three largest events in the sequence. The fissures, concentrated in a narrow area at the western termination of the NE–SW Jebel Choukchot anticline (location of Beni-Ilmane village), showed several orientations which were mainly related to gravity instabilities. The 2010 Beni-Ilmane earthquake sequence, located in the Bibans–Hodna Mountains transition zone, demonstrates that the Tellian Atlas–High Plateaus border region is an active seismic zone marked by moderate and possibly strong earthquakes; thus, a reevaluation of the seismic hazard in the region is needed.  相似文献   

Two types of alkaline rocks-two types of upper mantle     

G. S. Gorshkov 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1969,33(4):1186-1198

1) Petrochemical studies of volcanic rocks shows that alkaline rocks of continents and oceans are different genetically in spite of their mineralogical and chemical similarity. 2) Oceanic rocks develop according to the following type: tholeiitic basalt — olivine basalt — alkaline rocks. 3) Continental alkaline rocks are derivatives of initially alkaline basalts and are connected by gradual transitions with calc-alkaline rocks of island arcs. 4) The source of all volcanic rocks is the upper mantle. Therefore the existence of two main types of rocks — oceanic and continental — reflects basic heterogeneities in composition and structure of the upper mantle.  相似文献   

A Stochastic Two-node Stress Transfer Model Reproducing Omori's Law     

K. Borovkov  M. S. Bebbington 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2003,160(8):1429-1445

— We present an alternative to the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model of Ogata (1988). The continuous time two-node network stress release/transfer Markov model is able to reproduce the (modified) Omori law for aftershock frequencies. One node (denoted by A) is loaded by external tectonic forces at a constant rate, with `events' (main shocks) occurring at random instances with risk given by a function of the `stress level' at the node. Each event is a random (negative) jump of the stress level, and adds (or removes) a random amount of stress to the second node (B), which experiences `events' in a similar way, but with another risk function (of the stress level at that node only). When that risk function satisfies certain simple conditions (it may, in particular, be exponential), the frequency of jumps (aftershocks) at node B, in the absence of any new events at node A, follows Omori's law \((\prpto (c + t)^{-1})\) for aftershock squences. When node B is allowed tectonic input, which may be negative, i.e., aseismic slip, the frequency of events takes on a decay form that parallels the constitutive law derived by Dieterich (1994), which fits very well to the modified Omori law. We illustrate the model by fitting it to aftershock data from California post-1973, and from the Valparaiso earthquake of March 3 1985.  相似文献   

利用背景噪声数据提取地震台站间 面波的可靠性分析 以中国大陆中东部地区的宽频带台站为例     

郑现  赵翠萍  周连庆  郑斯华 《地震学报》2013,35(2):218-228

利用中国大陆中东部地区以国家台网为主的100个分布均匀的宽频带地震台记录到的21个月的连续波形数据, 经过单台数据处理和互相关叠加计算后, 由时频分析法提取了研究区各台站对间瑞雷波的格林函数. 为了检验经验格林函数的可靠性和稳定性, 对沿部分路径的经验格林函数和频散曲线进行了质量评估. 检测结果表明, 自21个月叠加的台站对间背景噪声中提取的经验格林函数与实际的地震面波一致, 提取的格林函数可靠. 此外, 统计了使用从3—21个月不同长度数据叠加后, 经验格林函数信噪比大于10的频散曲线数目. 结果表明, 至少要使用12个月的数据才能提取到信噪比足够大, 数目足够多, 可用于反演面波速度结构的经验格林函数; 12个月的叠加时长, 可以保证30 s以下周期的频散曲线在时间上稳定.   相似文献   

Regional watershed characterization and classification with river network analyses   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Cédric Gaucherel  Romain Frelat  Ludovic Salomon  Bastien Rouy  Neha Pandey  Christophe Cudennec 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(13):2068-2081

In order to understand and manage a hydrological region, one usually needs to comprehensively characterize the watersheds (basins) and their river networks. This usually and primarily involves analysis of hydrological and geomorphological properties of the watershed derived from the digital terrain model (DTM), but this approach neglects the information content of the associated river networks. In this study, we used a combination of traditional DTM and original river network‐related indices to the watersheds of an understudied region, Haiti. We also used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate index confidence levels of these indices. Compared to commonly used indices, the network indices provided valuable information that could then be used in statistical analyses as a way to identify the dominant features of the country's watershed morphology. On this basis, we identified four watershed groups in Haiti: (i) high, elongated watersheds, (ii) lowlands, with sinuous networks and relatively slow runoff, (iii) high watersheds with dendritic networks, and (iv) lowlands with high downstream–upstream contrast in properties and rapid runoffs. We argue that river network features provide complementary information in terms of flow topology, highly relevant to characterize contrasting relief countries, such as Haiti. Hence, more exhaustive characterization of watersheds would predictably benefit from the approach outlined in this paper. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

金沙江龙蟠右岸变形体的地震学研究          下载免费PDF全文

王妙月  王若  底青云 《地球物理学报》2006,49(5):1489-1498

拟建中的虎跳峡水电站水库蓄水后距虎跳峡上游20 km处的龙蟠右岸变形体是否会突然失稳崩滑为许多人关注.本文在折射波勘探方法获得龙蟠变形体底界形态、埋深、规模的基础上,进一步利用折射波勘探已经采集的炮集记录识别的反射波、面波、折射波等来研究变形体的内部结构和弹性及非弹性参数,获得变形体内部存在纵向横向结构的依据以及面波和折射波衰减系数,进而估算了变形体介质横波和纵波的非弹性性质参数与弹性性质参数的比值分别为0000184和0000144.由此判断水库蓄水后因变形体介质大量孔隙充水,造成孔隙压增加和剪切强度降低,进而导致变形体可能发生稳定非弹性变形或滑动,但稳定变形或滑动是否会演化成突然的非稳定滑动尚缺乏资料的支持.  相似文献   

The lesser antilles — A discussion of the Island arc magmatism   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. L. Smith  M. J. Roobol  B. M. Gunn 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1980,43(2):287-302

The active island arc of Lesser Antilles marks the junction between the Atlantic and Carribbean lithospheric plates. With the exception of the alkali basalts of Grenada, the volcanics of the arc can be regarded as belonging to the low-K, island arc, calc-alkaline suite. Although compositions ranging from basalt to rhyolite have been described, porphyritic andesite appears to be the dominant rock type on most volcanoes (intermediate centers). Variable amounts of basalt and basaltic andesite occur and rarely predominate over andesite (latter are basic centers), whereas the more silicic members are only occasionally found. The calc-alkaline suite is characterized by relatively high Al₂O₃ and CaO and low K₂O, Rb and Ni. Variations, especially in the alkali elements, occur both with space and time. A characteristic feature of many of the volcanoes is the occurrence in the basalt and basaltic andesite volcanics of plutonic blocks, often showing cumulate textures. The blocks which ware composed of plagioclase — amphibole — olivine — clinopyroxene — magnetite are thought to be the products of fractionation. The differences between basic and intermediate centers is probably due to the frequency that the magma ascended to the surface or remained in high level chambers where fractionation occurred.  相似文献   

利用DEMETER卫星数据分析强震前后的电离层异常   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

颜蕊  王兰炜  胡哲  刘大鹏  张兴国  张宇 《地震学报》2013,35(4):498-511

基于法国DEMETER卫星观测的离子温度(T_i)、 VLF电磁场单频点频谱数据探索了2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0、 2010年1月12日海地M_S7.3和2010年2月27日智利M_S8.8等3次强震前后与地震有关的电离层异常现象. 结果发现, 汶川地震前3天(5月9日)震中北偏西方向离子温度明显升高, 震前4天(5月8日)VLF磁场低于200 Hz的频段范围频谱在震中2°以内有明显突升; 智利地震前9天(2月18日)震中北东方向离子温度有剧烈扰动, 震前4天(2月23日)VLF磁场100—160 Hz频段范围内出现突升; 海地地震震前没有观测到明显的异常现象, 但地震发生当天(震后约4—5小时)的T_i, 40—160 Hz频段电场频谱, 以及120—480 Hz磁场频谱均有明显突升, 应为地震发生后能量释放所引起. 分析认为, 不同地震由于发震机制等各种情况的不同, 其地震前后的表现也各不相同. 虽然目前没有直接的证据表明本文研究的异常变化是由地震的孕育和发生引起的, 但在数据处理中已尽可能排除了太阳、 地磁等因素的影响, 并且研究结果与前人的研究经验吻合, 因此本文发现的异常可能与地震发生的关系较大.   相似文献   

CMEs: How do the puzzle pieces fit together?     

《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2002,64(2):231-252

This review consists of questions to participants in the S-RAMP Symposium (S3) on CMEs and Coronal Holes, as well as to a few others, and their responses in a “town meeting” format (originally conducted on Hugh Hudson's website). Here we deal only with CMEs. The questions we ask aim at probing the weaknesses of existing models and highlighting controversies, thereby providing guidance toward a more complete view of solar eruptions. Topics covered include: the “solar flare myth”, flux ropes, new phenomena (EIT waves, dimmings, global brightenings), helicity and sigmoids, and transequatorial loops (as sources of CMEs). Although this is a review, we're more concerned here with what is not known than what is already agreed upon. We asked people to speculate freely in advance of the observational, analytical, and theoretical work that will provide definitive answers—this is not the standard Scientific Method at work!  相似文献   

Characterization of and correction for cultural noise   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Andreas Junge 《Surveys in Geophysics》1996,17(4):361-391

Surveys of time varying electromagnetic fields result in time series consisting of signals and noise, the latter defined as that part of the data which cannot be explained by a theory. Man-made contributions to noise can be subdivided into active and passive sources and are complex in character. As Szarka has treated this topic extensively in a recent review paper (Szarka, 1988), only a few further examples are presented here. Following discussion of noise correction in transient electromagnetic investigations which consists mainly of sophisticated stacking and filter procedures, several aspects of its correction in magnetotelluric and geomagnetic depth sounding data are considered. These include:

1. The methods of treatment of single time series in the presence of visible noise—its detection, removal and sometimes replacement by data predicted from undisturbed intervals.
2. The investigation of time series interrelations. This is mainly coherence based and—if possible—takes advantage of remote reference techniques.
3. The examination of the statistical properties of the time series by regression analysis. This leads to the weighting of time segments of data in order to achieve unbiased and minimum variance estimates based on identically and independently Gaussian distributed residuals.
4. The application of constraints. These can further improve the estimates' quality.
5. The use of simultaneously recorded multistation data. This can contribute remarkably to noise suppression as well as to the treatment of non-uniform source fields.
6. Leveraging and confidence limits. Problems relating to the former have not yet been solved satisfactorily while the Jacknife method seems to be an easy way of determining the latter.

Thanks to the modern processing techniques reviewed in this paper it should be possible to obtain a rather dense net of high quality data in spite of the world-wide increasing noise level. As most processing codes are widely accessible current problems are more related to availability of instruments, carrying out the measurements and reserving enough time for thorough data processing.  相似文献   

Isotopic abundances: inferences on solar system and planetary evolution     

G.J. Wasserburg 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1987,86(2-4)

Members of the Royal Swedish Academy, ladies and gentlemen.In thinking over why I am here today, I recalled the story of Tom Sawyer, a character of Mark Twain's. On a beautiful, bright Saturday morning, when all of his friends were playing, he appeared by the wall in front of his aunt's house with a bucket of whitewash paint and a long-handled brush. Before him stood about thirty meters of continuous wooden fence, three meters tall. He dipped his brush and passed it over a plank and then repeated it. Then he stopped and compared the insignificant whitewashed streak with the far-reaching continent of unpainted fence and became melancholy. Then he took up the brush again and went to work. A friend came by and teased him for working on Saturday when he could be swimming or playing. Tom said it wasn't so bad, because a boy didn't get the chance to whitewash a fence every day. Tom took a new brush stroke at the fence and stepped back to note the beauty of the effect. His friend got interested and then asked permission to make a stroke or two. He then offered Tom the core of an apple he had just started to nibble on. Tom told him that it was doubtful that his friend could help because this was the front fence and that a very good and sophisticated job had to be done. Possibly only but one child in a thousand, possibly two-thousand, could do it. Well, after this denial, his friend just had to try and offered Tom the whole apple for a chance to paint. Then more young friends came around to attempt this challenging task. By the end of the afternoon, Tom was the wealthiest boy in town. He had twelve marbles, a key that didn't unlock anything, a piece of blue glass to look through, a tin soldier, a dog collar (but no dog) and lots of other valuable things. The fence had been coated three times and if he had not run out of whitewash, Tom would have bankrupted every kid in the village. My presence here is due to an ability to attract young talent to help whitewash the fence. The only difference is that we have just started on the job.  相似文献   

Reference statistics for the structure of measurement series of groundwater levels (Wielkopolska Lowland,western Poland)     

R. Graf 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(9):1587-1606

Abstract

This study analyses the statistical and dynamic properties of time series of mean annual groundwater levels for the years 1961–2000, with the purpose of preparing reference statistics for the study period. Data came from 62 measurement stations of the groundwater observation network of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—the National Research Institute IMGW-PIB—located across the Wielkopolska Lowland (western Poland). Station-grouping criteria were as follows: the availability of a 40-year measurement series, spatial location, as well as separation of the aquifer from the surface. For estimating the time series structure of groundwater levels, the following stationarity tests were conducted: the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, with positive results in 44% of the stations, the majority comprising a group that represents confined aquifers. Their non-stationarity was attributed to the presence of a long-term stochastic trend. In the majority of cases the groundwater-level frequency distributions were within the group of platykurtic distributions, right asymmetrical. In the period studied, 62% of the series showed a downward tendency of groundwater levels, including 45% for which the trend was statistically significant; a rising trend was only statistically significant in half of the series. The masking effect of anthropogenic factors was indicated as a fundamental element interfering with the statistical properties of the groundwater observation series in the period 1961–2000 in the Wielkopolska Lowland. This information can be of use for the management and protection of water resources and in prognostic studies on modifying aquiferous systems with recorded water deficits.