共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
James R. Holliday Donald L. Turcotte John B. Rundle 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(6):1003-1024
There are two fundamentally different approaches to assessing the probabilistic risk of earthquake occurrence. The first is fault based. The statistical occurrence of earthquakes is determined for mapped faults. The applicable models are renewal models in that a tectonic loading of faults is included. The second approach is seismicity based. The risk of future earthquakes is based on the past seismicity in the region. These are also known as cluster models. An example of a cluster model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In this paper we discuss an alternative branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Båth’s law for the scaling relation of aftershock magnitudes relative to the magnitude of the main earthquake. Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Unlike the ETAS model, the BASS model is fully self-similar, and is not sensitive to the low magnitude cutoff. 相似文献
2.
着重于序列衰减与余震激发,系统介绍了修改的大森公式、ETAS模型及BASS模型的最新理论研究进展及应用成果。修改的大森公式是迄今为止对序列衰减的最好描述,据此可对序列衰减特征进行定量表述。大森公式本质上是一种典型的现象统计模型,但由于其参数少、计算简单,并且确实能够反映序列衰减的总体特征,因而在实际中应用广泛。ETAS模型考虑了具有统计自相似特征的次级余震激发问题,次级余震激发强度与父地震强度有关,这在物理过程方面对大森公式进行了大大的拓展。由于考虑了次级余震的激发问题,ETAS模型不但在余震序列研究方面比修改的大森公式有了明显的进展,而且在诸如平静检测、余震群集剔除、背景地震活动评估、外因触发地震活动检测等方面也有诸多应用。BASS模型遵循修改的Bath定律,而ETAS模型遵循的是与父地震震级有关的相似率,这是BASS模型与ETAS模型的最大区别,因而相对ETAS模型而言,BASS模型是一种完全自相似的理想化模型,但目前基于BASS模型的应用研究尚不多见 相似文献
3.
基于中国地震台网中心2013 MS7.0芦山地震余震数据我们首先确定了余震空间分布范围并根据G-R关系计算了主震后半小时内的完备震级Mc=3.5,并且得到了ML≥3.5和ML≥3.0的地震在2001年至芦山地震前的背景场地震发生率.通过Omori-Ustu经验定律和两种Dieterich模型对芦山地震余震发生率的拟合,我们发现阶梯型Dieterich模型只能模拟p=1的情况,从而造成了模拟曲线与观测数据的差别;前人研究表明震后滑移同样是产生余震的原因,如果假设余震序列由主震静态剪应力Δτ和震后滑移共同作用所产生,我们数值模拟得到的对数型Dieterich模型能够较好地推断余震发生率R随时间t增加而衰减的趋势,能够从物理机制上解释MS7.0芦山地震余震序列衰减指数大于1这一现象.通过对数型Dieterich模型的拟合并结合Andrews的方法,我们还得到MS7.0芦山地震Aσ约为0.155 MPa,ta约为8.4年,这一值与前人研究结果十分接近. 相似文献
4.
— All earthquakes are followed by an aftershock sequence. A universal feature of aftershock sequences is that they decay in time according to the modified Omori’s law, a power-law decay. In this paper we consider the applicability of damage mechanics to earthquake aftershocks. The damage variable introduced in damage mechanics quantifies the deviation of a brittle solid from linear elasticity. We draw an analogy between the metastable behavior of a stressed brittle solid and the metastable behavior of a superheated liquid. The nucleation of microcracks is analogous to the nucleation of bubbles in the superheated liquid. In this paper we obtain a solution for the evolution of damage after the instantaneous application of a constant strain to a rod. We show that the subsequent stress relaxation can reproduce the modified Omori’s law. It is argued that the aftershocks themselves cause random fluctuations similar to the thermal fluctuations associated with phase transitions. 相似文献
5.
基于Dieterich地震活动性理论,本文推导出计算余震发生率和余震累积次数的一般表达式,其中主震后发震断层内部的剪切应力随时间的演化过程遵从Jeffreys-Lomnitz蠕变模型,且与修正Omori定律直接相关。修正Omori定律中的p值与震后断层的短时应力加卸载过程正相关。采用Rubin和Ampuero 给出的震后断层自维持蠕滑模型本文得出计算余震发生率的近似表达式,并对2008年汶川地震序列进行拟合。结果表明,p值的大小直接对应了速率-状态摩擦定律中摩擦参量b/a,而修正Omori定律中的c值则与速率-状态摩擦定律中的临界滑移Dc相关。对于汶川余震序列而言,拟合结果显示b/a约为1.13,Dc约为2—3 cm。Rubin-Ampuero震后自维持蠕滑描述了震后孕震层内部短暂的速率变化特征,是孕震断层演化过程不可缺少的环节。 相似文献
6.
2008年"5·12"汶川特大地震发生后,固定及流动台站获得了数量可观的余震地震动数据,为地震危险性分析和地震动衰减规律研究提供了丰富的数据。通过Gutenberg-Richter关系分析得到汶川地震余震震级-频度分布（FMD）,结合Båth定律预估得到逼近实际的最大预估余震震级,基于修正的Omori定律拟合得到余震发生率与主震后时间的关系。主余震统计特性显示Ms4.0~6.4范围内的余震记录震中距及震级分布相对均匀,可作为建立地震动衰减规律的依据。故针对土层地表及基岩地表分别进行了EW、NS和UD三个方向的统计回归分析,给出了2种地表情况下三向地震动峰值加速度的定量衰减关系表达式。 相似文献
7.
L. Matias N. A. Dias I. Morais D. Vales F. Carrilho J. Madeira J. L. Gaspar L. Senos A. B. Silveira 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(3):275-298
The Faial earthquake (M
L 5.8) that occurred on the 9th of July, 1998, in the Azores region (north Atlantic), caused nine casualties and severe destruction
affecting more than 5,000 people. The main shock was located at sea, 10 km NE of the Faial Island, and triggered a seismic
sequence that lasted for several weeks and was characterized by an unusual high p-value of 1.40 for the modified Omori law. We present here the results of a joint inversion of hypocenters and 1D velocity
model performed on the data collected by the permanent network complemented with a temporary network installed shortly after
the occurrence of the main event. The 1D velocity model shows a heterogeneous upper crust, testified by the observed differences
in site effects at the stations, while the middle crust from ∼2.5 to 8 km in depth is quite homogeneous. The Moho is located
at a depth of about 12–13 km and the Vp/Vs ratio is found to be around 1.78. The events at depth are mainly concentrated in
the middle-lower crust (8–12 km), while their spatial distribution shows a main cluster, visible after relocation, SSE trending.
This direction of elongation is consistent with one of the fault planes (N151°E) of the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution
for the main shock. The same plane is the preferred main shock fault plane inferred after a Coulomb failure function analysis
on the aftershock distribution. The main event relocation points to a focal depth shallower than 5 km. The aftershocks pattern
shows that several fault systems were reactivated by the stress perturbation induced by the main shock. Besides the two main
tectonic directions, trending WNW–ESE and NNW–SSE, observed in the tectonics of Faial, Pico, and S. Jorge, there is also evidence
of a new tectonic direction trending WSW–ENE. 相似文献
8.
较大的余震可能造成额外损失并有二次触发建筑物受灾的风险。为研究余震序列衰减规律,文章尝试采用指数衰减模型拟合分析5个不同地区余震序列,并借助修正赤池信息准则、贝叶斯信息准则与调整后R2,分析其与传统余震衰减模型的性能。结果表明,指数模型描述余震序列衰减规律的能力与修正的大森余震模型、修正的拉伸指数模型接近。尤其对于四川长宁MS6.0余震序列和云南彝良MS5.7余震序列,指数模型表现优于其他两种模型。指数模型参数具有明确的物理意义：参数A与r之和能够准确代表强震后的实际初始余震数,5个余震序列初始余震数偏差均小于1.70%;参数k可作为反映余震序列衰减快慢的特征值,k值越大则余震序列衰减越慢,其值与主震震级呈反比例关系。 相似文献
9.
The present research focuses on the statistical evaluation of Iranian plateau aftershocks from an engineering perspective and presents probabilistic models applicable for generating random earthquake scenarios. Accordingly, a comprehensive earthquake data catalog including the period from 1964 to 2016 is prepared. Data are declustered into 37 separate mainshock-aftershock sequences by considering the completeness moment magnitude of the database. The well-known modified Omori occurrence rate formula is adopted to determine the recurrence time of the events, considering the effect of secondary aftershocks. In addition to computing the probability density functions of the parameters of the Omori formula, the joint probability distribution of the aftershock occurrence versus magnitude and occurrence time is obtained for modeling their magnitude sequences. The obtained results are applicable for producing randomly generated mainshock-aftershock scenarios. 相似文献
10.
《Journal of Geodynamics》2003,35(1-2):59-81
Main features of the August–December 2000 earthquake swarm which occurred in the major focal area of the North-West Bohemia / Vogtland swarm region are presented. Seismograms from four stations of WEBNET were automatically processed to get arrival times, first motion amplitudes and hypocentre coordinates of a representative set of events. Altogether 7017 microearthquakes in the magnitude range of ML=0–3.3 were identified. It is shown the decay of activity of individual swarm phases followed the modified Omori law, which points to a partial similarity with aftershock sequences of tectonic earthquakes. The space-time distribution of a subset of 2913 events with low location residuals shows a strong space clustering of the earthquake hypocentres and their pronounced migration between individual swarm phases. Most of the activity took place along an elliptical, nearly vertically dipping, 6 km long N-S oriented fault plane in depths ranging from 10.5 to 6.5 km. The P and T axes were estimated by FOCMEC for the 782 strong events and three groups of earthquakes with similar faulting type were distinguished. In contrast to the normal and strike-slip faulting events that created the prevailing portion of the swarm and were distributed uniformly within the focal area, the reverse events were clustered in time and space. 相似文献
11.
Mine tremors and their aftershocks pose a risk to mine workers in the deep gold mines of South Africa. The statistical properties of mine-tremor aftershocks were investigated as part of an endeavour to assess the hazard and manage the risk. Data from two gold mines in the Carletonville mining district were used in the analysis. Main shocks were aligned in space and time and the aftershock sequences stacked and analysed. The aftershocks were found to satisfy Gutenberg–Richter scaling, with a b value close to 1. Aftershock activity diminished with time in accordance with the modified Omori law, with p values close to 1. However, the relationship between the main shock and its biggest aftershock violated Båths law, with ΔM L ≈ 1.9 for main shocks with M L < 3 and increasing for main shocks with M L > 3. The aftershock density was found to fall-off with distance as r ?1.3, suggesting triggering by dynamic stress. 相似文献
12.
Gospodinov Dragomir Dineva Savka Dahnér-Lindkvist Christina 《Journal of Seismology》2022,26(5):1023-1037
Aftershock series of even comparatively small seismic events can pose a risk to the mining operation or the personnel in deep underground mines as the main shocks and some of the aftershocks can cause damage in the rock mass. Stochastic modeling was applied in this study for the analysis of the temporal evolution of aftershock occurrence probability during a M1.85 aftershock sequence in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden. The Restricted Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model was chosen for estimation of the aftershock occurrence probability. This model considers all events with magnitude above the magnitude of completeness M0 and has the advantage of including the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) model and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model as its end versions, considering also all intermediate models. The model was applied sequentially to data samples covering cumulative periods of time, starting from the first 2 h after the main event and increasing them by 2 h until the period covered the entire 72-h sequence. For each sample, the best-fit RETAS version was identified and the probability of a M?≥?0.5 aftershock for every next 2 h was determined through Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility of the resulting probability evolution for suspension and re-starting of the mining operations was discussed together with possible prospects for future development of the methodology.
相似文献13.
Ya-Ting Lee Donald L. Turcotte John B. Rundle Chien-Chih Chen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):221-228
In this paper we consider the statistics of the aftershock sequence of the m = 7.65 20 September 1999 Chi–Chi, Taiwan earthquake. We first consider the frequency-magnitude statistics. We find good agreement with Gutenberg–Richter scaling but find that the aftershock level is anomalously high. This level is quantified using the difference in magnitude between the main shock and the largest inferred aftershock $ {{\Updelta}}m^{ *}. $ Typically, $ {{\Updelta}}m^{ *} $ is in the range 0.8–1.5, but for the Chi–Chi earthquake the value is $ {{\Updelta}}m^{ *} $ = 0.03. We suggest that this may be due to an aseismic slow-earthquake component of rupture. We next consider the decay rate of aftershock activity following the earthquake. The rates are well approximated by the modified Omori’s law. We show that the distribution of interoccurrence times between aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. We introduce the concept of Omori times to study the merging of the aftershock activity with the background seismicity. The Omori time is defined to be the mean interoccurrence time over a fixed number of aftershocks. 相似文献
14.
Mark R. Yoder Jordan Van Aalsburg Donald L. Turcotte Sergey G. Abaimov John B. Rundle 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):155-171
Aftershock statistics provide a wealth of data that can be used to better understand earthquake physics. Aftershocks satisfy scale-invariant Gutenberg–Richter (GR) frequency–magnitude statistics. They also satisfy Omori’s law for power-law seismicity rate decay and Båth’s law for maximum-magnitude scaling. The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model, which is the scale-invariant limit of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model (ETAS), uses these scaling laws to generate synthetic aftershock sequences. One objective of this paper is to show that the branching process in these models satisfies Tokunaga branching statistics. Tokunaga branching statistics were originally developed for drainage networks and have been subsequently shown to be valid in many other applications associated with complex phenomena. Specifically, these are characteristic of a universality class in statistical physics associated with diffusion-limited aggregation. We first present a deterministic version of the BASS model and show that it satisfies the Tokunaga side-branching statistics. We then show that a fully stochastic BASS simulation gives similar results. We also study foreshock statistics using our BASS simulations. We show that the frequency–magnitude statistics in BASS simulations scale as the exponential of the magnitude difference between the mainshock and the foreshock, inverse GR scaling. We also show that the rate of foreshock occurrence in BASS simulations decays inversely with the time difference between foreshock and mainshock, an inverse Omori scaling. Both inverse scaling laws have been previously introduced empirically to explain observed foreshock statistics. Observations have demonstrated both of these scaling relations to be valid, consistent with our simulations. ETAS simulations, in general, do not generate Båth’s law and do not generate inverse GR scaling. 相似文献
15.
大森-宇津定律的一种可能机制以唐山大地震为例 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为了探讨大森-宇津定律的物理机制, 本文在余震区等效黏度远低于其外部, 且构造应力场在整个余震活动时间间隔内基本保持不变的假设条件下, 提出了一个开尔文黏弹性地震震源体概念模型． 该模型可用于模拟主震后断层蠕变和震源区应力调整触发的余震序列以及蠕变停止后余震终结、 介质恢复到弹性状态、 断层重新闭锁和积累下一次地震的整个过程． 有限元方法可用来计算非均匀黏弹性地震震源体模型中主震和每次余震所引起的应力场及其随时间的演化过程． 在此基础上, 采用开尔文黏弹性地震震源体概念模型和有限元方法模拟了1976年唐山MS7.8地震余震序列． 结果表明: 经验的大森-宇津定律可以用开尔文黏弹性震源体模型来解释, 这意味着余震衰减的频度取决于蠕变的速率; 余震序列持续时间受控于震源体的黏度, 即黏度越大, 蠕变时间越长, 余震持续的时间也就越长． 相似文献
16.
Temporal features of the aftershock activities following twelve moderate shallow earthquakes in Greece have been studied quantitatively, by making use of the modified Omori's formula and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC).Although the earthquake sequences occurred in different seismotectonic regions in Greece, similar seismic patterns before the occurrence of large aftershocks have been observed. Aftershock activity shows an appreciable decrease from the level expected from the modified Omori formula before the occurrence of the large aftershock. Also in some cases, the aftershock activity recovers to a normal level or increases beyond it prior to the occurrence of the large aftershock, if the aftershock activity is monitored immediately after the occurrence of the main shock. In such case, the observed pattern may be useful in predicting a large aftershock. 相似文献
17.
Analysis of aftershock sequences of the strongest earthquakes of the world showed that previously discovered empirical relations are not universal. Båth’s law is found to be invalid in the majority of cases, while Omori’s law is valid only in a short initial interval of aftershock activity. It is supposed that aftershocks of the strongest earthquakes of normal depths are related initially to fracture of zones that preserved their integrity after the rupture in the source of the main shock and at a later stage to relaxation of stresses in the medium adjacent to the rupture. 相似文献
18.
A version of the restricted trigger model is used to analyse the temporal behaviour of some aftershock sequences. The conditional
intensity function of the model is similar to that of the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (ETAS) model with the restriction
that only the aftershocks of magnitude bigger than or equal to some threshold Mtr can trigger secondary events. For this reason we have named the model Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (RETAS)
model. Varying the triggering threshold we examine the variants of the RETAS model which range from the Modified Omori Formula
(MOF) to the ETAS model, including such models as limit cases. In this way we have a quite large set of models in which to
seek the model that fits best an aftershock sequence bringing out the specific features of the seismotectonic region struck
by the crisis. We have applied the RETAS model to the analysis of two aftershock sequences: The first is formed by the events
which followed the strong earthquake of M=7.8 which occurred in Kresna, SW Bulgaria, in 1904. The second includes three main shocks and a large swarm of minor shocks
following the quake of 26 September 1997 in the Umbria-Marche region, central Italy. The MOF provides the best fit to the
sequence in Kresna; that leads to the thought that just the stress field changes due to the very strong main shock generate
the whole sequence. On the contrary, the complex behaviour of the seismic sequence in Umbria-Marche appears when we make the
threshold magnitude vary. Setting the cut-off magnitude M0=2.9 the best fit is provided by the ETAS model, while if we raise the threshold magnitude M0=3.6 and set Mtr=5.0, the RETAS model turns out to be the best model. In fact, observing the time distribution of this reduced data set, it
appears more evident that especially the strong secondary events are followed by a cluster of aftershocks. 相似文献
19.
A. V. Guglielmi 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(5):785-786
The well-known Omori law is represented in the form of the differential equation describing the evolution of the aftershock activity. The interpretation of the evolution equation is suggested. It is based on the idea of deactivation of the faults in the vicinity of the main shock of the earthquake. The generalization of the Omori law with the allowance for the nonstationarity of the medium in the source, which is cooling after the main shock, is presented. 相似文献
20.
A new detection and location algorithm for a single seismic array is described. This algorithm is an improvement of methods
of joint polarization analysis and beamforming. The method has been used in new automatic detector-locator program UDL (Universal
Detector Locator) to process data of aftershock sequence of the strongest intraplate earthquake (M
w
= 6.1) in Storfjorden, Spitsbergen archipelago. A temporal behavior of the sequence of the aftershocks is presented. It has
been found that the sequence does not satisfy Omori law and have periodicity for events with M < 0. Possible reasons of this phenomenon are discussed. 相似文献