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海平面不断上升威胁人类的生命安全,高精度的海平面预测对人类预防水文灾害具有重要意义。现有的预测方法因验潮站数据为单一时间序列而难以进行高精度预测。针对此问题,提出一种融合变分模态分解(VMD)和极度梯度提升算法(XGBoost)的变分模态分解-极度梯度提升预测模型,简称VMD-XGBoost模型。与XGBoost模型、卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(CNN-LSTM)、变分模态-卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(VMD-CNN-LSTM)对比,对荷兰沿岸海平面验潮站时间序列进行预测。验潮站预测结果分析表明：相较于XGBoost模型,VMD-XGBoost模型预测结果的均方根误差平均降低65.43%,平均绝对误差平均降低63.79%,平均绝对百分比误差平均降低63.44%,且相较于VMD-CNN-LSTM模型,VMD-XGBoost模型在验潮站海面高序列预测上具有更高预测精度,可实现高精度验潮站时间序列预测。 相似文献
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中国沿岸现代相对海平面上升加剧 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文用线性回归方法,分两个时段分析了中国沿岸２５个验潮站相对海平面的年变化速度,计算了相应时段的平均海面,结果表明,中国沿岸现代相对海平面上升加剧。另外,本文还对海平面变化原因进行了讨论。 相似文献
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验潮站观测的海面高度数据是监测海平面变化以及确定平均海面时常使用的重要基础观测信息,针对平均海面以及相对海平面变化速率在不同时段观测资料下结果的差异进行了分析,统计了不同时间尺度平均海面确定的差异,并设计了两组数据实验,具体讨论了不同年份19年观测以及观测时长逐年累加两种情况下,相对海平面变化速率确定结果的规律。实验结果表明,月平均海面具有明显的季节性变化,最大互差可达几十厘米,1年平均海面基本稳定,19年平均海面精度可达厘米级;利用19年的观测资料确定的相对海平面变化速率反映的观测时段内海平面的变化情况,各时段结果差异较大且可靠性较低;为获得稳定可靠的相对海平面变化速率,观测时长应至少涵盖两个潮汐变化周期。 相似文献
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近几十年来的全球海面变化 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
本文分析了全球914个验潮站的月平均海面观测序列.在此基础上以一定的准则对其中有长期观测记录的414个验潮站求出了各验潮站的局部视海面变化速率,并在“均衡基准”下求得了近几十年来全球海面变化的平均速率约为每年缓慢上升1.25～1.45mm.但在地区、海域之间存在明显差异.提出了特别易受海面上升影响的若干地区. 相似文献
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利用福建沿海几个主要验潮站数据与法国空间局(CNES)AVISO多卫星融合资料分析了福建近海及其周边海域海平面的时、空变化特征及主要模态,并简要分析福建近海海平面变化趋势.得到如下结论:近54a(1960~2013年)福建沿海相对海平面上升约2 mm/a,福建沿海海平面变化存在显著的季节变化和2~3a及6~8a的年际变化特征,这与ENSO和长周期天文分潮的变化周期较为吻合;对比同期卫星高度计资料和潮位站资料(1993~2012年)发现,卫星高度计与潮位站分析结果基本一致;卫星高度计和潮位站分析结果表明,福建沿海区域海平面近20a平均线性变化趋势约为4 mm/a. 相似文献
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我国海平面年速率的分布和长周期分潮的变化 总被引：18，自引：2，他引：18
应用验潮站潮汐资料计算海平面年速率,绘出我国海平面年速率和等值线分布图并进行讨论,分析了我国海平面长周期分潮的变化。 相似文献
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一、中国现代海平面的变化海平面即指平均海平面,是由验潮站逐时潮位记录的平均值获得。长期验潮站的多年平均海平面变化是很小的,数量在毫米级。 1.百年来中国海平面的变化根据国家海洋局资料(1990),在中国沿海48个长期验潮站中,海平面呈上升趋势的有39个站,占总数的81％,呈下降趋势的有7个站,占总数的15％,基本稳定的有2个站,占总数4％。48个站1200多站年资料统计表明,百年来我国海平面平均年增率为 相似文献
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1 .IntroductionTheglobalairtemperatureroseabout 0 .5～ 0 .6°Coverthepast 2 0thcentury ,andtheglobalmeansealevelincreasedbyabout2 0cmduringtheperiod .Theregionalmeansealevelriseswiththerisingglobalmeansealevel.Zuoetal.( 1 997)indicatedthatthemeanrisingrateofabsolutemeansealevelalongtheChinacoastontheassumptionofunifiedisostaticdatumis 2mm a .Woodworth( 1 999)analyzedsealevelspanning 1 76 8tothepresentinLiverpool,andobtainedaseculartrendforheperiodupto 1 880of0 .39± 0 .1 7mm a ,andatrendfort… 相似文献
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A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was set up and validated for the west coast of India. The spatio-temporal variation of the tidal constituents for a 110 km stretch of the southwest coast of India was then studied by setting up a fine grid model. The study brings out variability in the shallow water constituents and their selective amplification. Within the Cochin estuary, the amplitudes of almost all the major tidal constituents show a gradual reduction upstream compared to other locations. The shallow water constituents show significant amplification and Z0, the constituent related to mean sea level shows five-fold amplification within the estuary. 相似文献
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南麂岛附近海域潮汐和潮流的特征 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
以2008年冬季在浙江近海南麂岛附近投放的4个底锚系观测的水位和流速资料为依据,分析了潮汐和潮流特征。水位谱分析结果显示半日分潮最显著,全日分潮其次;近岸的浅水分潮比离岸大。水位调和分析结果表明:潮汐类型均为正规半日潮,近岸处的平均潮差大于3m,最大可能潮差大于6m,潮汐呈现出显著的低潮日不等和回归潮特征。流速谱分析结果显示半日分潮流最强,全日分潮流其次,且比半日分潮流小得多;近岸浅水分潮流比远离岸显著。流速调和分析结果表明:潮流类型均为正规半日潮流,靠近岸的两个站浅水分潮流较显著;最显著的半日分潮流是M2分潮流,其最大流速介于0.32～0.48m/s之间,全日分潮流均很弱,最大流速小于0.06m/s。M2分潮流均为逆时针旋转,椭圆率越靠近海底越大;最大分潮流流速分布为中上层最大、表层略小、底层最小;最大分潮流流速方向的垂向变化很小,底层比表层略为偏左;最大分潮流流速到达时间随深度的加深而提前,底层比中上层约提前30min。潮流椭圆的垂向分布显示这里的半日分潮流以正压潮流为主;日分潮流则表现出很强的斜压性。 相似文献
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Akihiko Morimoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(4):477-485
The magnitude and geographical distribution of the error in the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic
data (AVISO) altimetry data associated with tidal correction around Asian marginal seas has been revealed. The errors were
evaluated by harmonic analysis of the AVISO corrected sea surface heights data (CorSSH). Errors of more than 15 cm of tidal
correction were recognized in the western and northern parts of the Yellow Sea, Celebes Sea, Kuril Islands, and the northwestern
part of the Okhotsk Sea. It was found that the CorSSH and sea level anomaly (SLA) data downloaded from the AVISO are not available
for direct use in those marginal seas. To reduce the tidal correction error, the harmonic constants calculated from the latest
tide model and regional tide model were applied as the tidal correction of the Altimetry data. The tidal errors in the Yellow
Sea and the northwestern part of the Okhotsk Sea were reduced by approximately 20 cm and 10 cm, respectively. Root mean square
differences between the harmonic constants derived from tide models and those derived from altimetry data were calculated.
The root mean square differences were large in the Yellow and the Okhotsk Seas. Root sum squares for four principal tidal
constituents in the Yellow and East China Seas and Okhotsk Sea were 7.72 cm and 8.36 cm, respectively. 相似文献
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Distribution of 9 Principal Tidal Constituents and Tide Prediction for the East China Sea 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
QIAN Chengchun 《中国海洋工程》2000,14(4):541-548
By use of the hydrodynamic model,the harmonic constants of 8 principal tidal constituents(Q_1,O_1,P_1,K_1,N_2,M_2,S_2andK_2)are obtained for the East China Sea,and the harmonic constant ofS_a is calculated by two-dimensional interpolation.The calculated results agree well with the observed dataaround the sea.The harmonic constants can be used to predict the tide in the East China Sea.The cotidalcharts of the 9 tidal constituents reveal their distribution. 相似文献
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Nontidal sea level changes generated in Hiroshima Bay of the Seto-Inland Sea in Japan are studied over various time scales, from the sub-tidal （2 d to 1 month） to inter-annual scales （〉2 years）. The total sea level variation produces a standard deviation （STD） of 12.5 cm. The inter-annual component of the sea level variation in Hiroshima Bay oscillates with a STD of 3.4 cm, forming a long-term trend of 4.9 mm/a. The STD of the sea level variation is 9.8 cm for the seasonal component （8 months to 2 years） and 4.7 cm for the intra-seasonal one （1 month to 8 months）. Significant sea level variations with a STD of 4.2 cm also occur in the sub-tidal range. Special attention is paid to the sub-tidal sea level changes. It is found that the upwelling and associated transient sea level changes generated along the north coast of Hiroshima Bay （opened southward） by the strong northerly wind, play a significant role in sub-tidal sea level changes. The transient sea level changes are over 10 cm in most cases when caused by typhoons that pass through the Pacific Ocean offthe Kii Peninsula, located at about 400 km east of Hiroshima Bay. Reasonable sea level changes are evaluated by the balance of pressure forces at the onshore and offshore boundary of the study domain. 相似文献
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Tariq Masood Ali Khan D. A. Razzaq Qamar-Uz-Zaman Chaudhry Dewan Abdul Quadir Anwarul Kabir Majajul Alam Sarker 《Marine Geodesy》2002,25(1):159-174
The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated. 相似文献
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天津近海潮汐特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对塘沽海洋环境监测站从1950年-2008年,59年的潮汐资料进行调和分析,分析了其分潮调和常数的变化曲线,并利用FFT谱分析方法对其调和常数的变化周期和原因进行了分析;之后应用FFT谱分析方法对去除天文潮后的余水位进行分解,分析了近50多年来年平均余水位的多层次周期分布,进而利用最小二乘法进行线性分析,分析了天津近海... 相似文献