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1.
采用基于概率的最小完整性震级方法(PMC),对青海省测震台网稳定运行以来实际产出的地震观测报告数据(2014—2021年)进行分析,获得该台网单台检测概率(PD)、合成检测概率(PE)以及基于概率的最小完整性震级(MP)的空间分布。通过对青海及邻区地震监测能力的评估,获得如下认识：青海测震台网监测能力存在明显的空间差异,其中：在台站分布较为密集的青海东部、中部地区,地震监测能力较好,MP分别为ML 1.5—2.0和ML 1.8—2.5;在台站分布较为稀疏的青海西部和南部地区,地震监测能力则相对较差,MP分别为ML 2.5—3.5和ML 2.2—2.7;在台站分布最为稀疏的青藏交界地区,地震监测能力最差,MP约为ML 2.5—3.5。对青海测震台网监测能力的科学评估,可为进一步改善台网空间布局提供参考依据。 相似文献
2.
《地球物理学进展》2016,(6)
为了实现对山东区域测震台网监测能力的科学准确的评估,分析山东及邻区地震监测能力的时空分布特征,为该区的地震研究和测震台网的进一步优化布局提供科学依据.本文利用"基于概率的完整性震级"(PMC)方法,通过计算山东测震台网的117个台站对周边地震事件的检测概率、测震台网的合成检测概率以及最小完整性震级,来评估测震台网的监测能力.单台检测概率结果显示,PMC方法可客观反映117个台站对地震事件的监测能力,在距离台站较近的区域,检测概率随着震级和震中距的增大而增大,处于沂沭断裂带中南段的台站对低震级档的地震有较高的监测能力.合成检测概率结果显示,检测概率高值区域主要集中在台站密集的胶东半岛和沂沭带中南段,而靠近山东省界的鲁西和鲁北区域则监测能力较差.最小完整性震级的结果也反映了类似的规律.同时,PMC方法还可以检测不同深度对检测概率空间分布特征的影响. 相似文献
3.
利用“基于概率的完整性震级”PMC方法,采用海南测震台网地震编目报告数据和台站资料,计算了海南测震台网21个台站对海南岛陆及周边海域地震的检测概率、测震台网的合成检测概率及最小完整性震级。单台检测概率结果显示：由于受台站布局、台基等因素影响,海南岛陆中部台站的检测能力较强,琼北地区 4个火山口台和三亚台检测能力差。合成检测概率及最小完整性震级结果显示：以屯昌为中心点以及周边的琼中、文昌、定安地区为检测高值地区;接入广东广西共享台,海南岛陆 90% 的地区基于概率的最小完整性震级 MP达到 ML1.5左右,海南岛陆西南部分地区及海岸线 50 km 范围内 MP达到 ML2.0 左右。结果表明：海南岛陆中北部地震监测能力较强,西南部及周边海域地震监测能力较弱,研究结果希望能为进一步优化海南测震台网布局提供一些参考依据。 相似文献
4.
为获得辽宁测震台网科学准确的监测能力评估结果,分析辽宁及周边地区的地震监测能力时空分布特征,为测震台网的优化提供科学依据。本研究首次将"基于概率的完整性震级"(PMC)方法应用到辽宁测震台网,通过计算获得辽宁地震台网37个台站的单台检测概率、测震台网合成检测概率以及基于概率的最小完整性震级M_P。单台检测概率表明:PMC方法能够客观地反映台站对地震事件的检测能力;营口—海城老震区周围的台站对较小震级的地震有较高的检测能力,受台网布局影响,位于辽宁边界地区台站的检测能力较弱。M_P时空分布特征显示:辽宁中部沈阳—辽阳—本溪—鞍山—盘锦地区1.5≥M_P≥1.2。辽宁南部大连一带监测能力较低M_P≥3.0,辽宁西部与河北交界地区3.0≥M_P≥2.5,辽宁其他区域2.5≥M_P≥1.8。研究结果表明,为进一步提高辽宁地震台网监测能力,需在辽宁东部、东南部建设台站以提高该区域台站密度,在辽宁西部地区建设部分台站和重新规划需要引入的河北共享台站,以提高该区域的台站密度及改善台站空间布局和该区域的监测能力。 相似文献
5.
1 研究背景
北京及邻区(39 °—41.5 °N,115 °—118 °E)地震活动背景活跃,政治、经济、文化高度集中,是我国经济社会发展以及减轻地震灾害的重点监视区之一(徐锡伟等,2002;陈颙等,2006).随着北京及邻区地震台网组成的不断完善和台站变更频度的加快,亟待及时动态评估地震监测能力变化,为北京及邻区日常监测预报业务提供数据支撑.国内外应用广泛的"基于概率的完整性震级"(probability-based magnitude of completeness,简称PMC)方法(Schorlemmer and Woessner,2008;Schorlemmer et al,2010),基于地震台阵/地震台网实际产出的观测资料,可实时、客观、准确地评估地震台网监测能力.采用PMC方法,对北京及邻区地震监测能力进行动态评估,以便摸清该区监测能力,进而为防震减灾部署、监测预报相关业务开展等提供重要的参考资料. 相似文献
6.
江苏测震台网经近20年的高速发展,已拥有75个数字测震台站,针对江苏台网监测能力的评估需求,同时为进一步优化台网布局,提高江苏测震台网监测能力提供参考意见,本文使用基于概率的完整性震级方法,利用江苏台网2009-2021年正式编目观测报告数据,对江苏台网进行监测能力评估。研究结果表明,江苏台网监测能力较好的地区为北部连云港周边地区,监测能力达到了ML?1.5;监测能力较差的地区为中部地区及近海海域,监测能力达到了ML?2.0。整个江苏台网基本实现了ML?2.0的监测能力,周边地区及中部近海海域基本实现了ML?2.5的监测能力。 相似文献
7.
采用基于概率的完整性震级（PMC）方法,选取上海测震台网13个地震台站及周边省市地震台2008-2019年记录的171个地震,计算各地震台及上海测震台网地震监测能力,并模拟增加新的地震台站后台网监测能力的变化。结果显示：①地表基岩台的监测能力较深井台强,且受噪声和地铁影响,市区深井台监测能力较低;②整体上,台站密布的松江和青浦地区,地震监测能力较强,最小完整性震级为ML 0.7。台站稀疏的浦东、奉贤、崇明地区,地震监测能力较弱,最小完整性震级为ML 1.3;③若在上海南部增设奉贤海湾台,可整体提高上海测震台网的监测能力。 相似文献
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9.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2008,70(1):71-88
The ultraviolet spectrometers (UVS) on the solar mesosphere explorer (SME) and student nitric oxide explorer (SNOE) measured scattered limb radiance at small and large scattering angles from polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The SME data are for the northern summer hemisphere (NH) in 1983 and 1984. The SNOE measurements are for the NH in 2000 and for the southern hemisphere (SH) in the 2000/2001 season. From this database, we deduce the modal particle size from the measured scattering angle asymmetry in radiance. This quantity is determined as a function of time within the PMC season, and latitude, assuming several scattering models depending on the adopted size distribution and particle shape. For assumed spherical particles with a Gaussian distribution of width of 14 nm, the results for SME show mode particle sizes that vary from about 35 to 60 nm throughout the season. The results for SNOE under the same assumption show that for high latitudes in the NH the particle size grows systematically from the seasonal onset, from about 25 nm to a maximum of about 45 nm at 30 days after solstice. Lower latitudes show a similar time dependence, but with smaller particle sizes. SH PMC particle sizes display a more complicated seasonal variability. Generally, variability in measured cloud height is anti-correlated with particle size for the seasons analyzed here. Particle sizes in the SH are generally smaller than those in the NH, consistent with the northern bias in PMC brightness, and with previous satellite studies. These results are interpreted in terms of our understanding of PMC microphysics and inter-hemispheric differences in temperature and dynamics. Our quantitative results for mode radius depend on the assumption of a constant distribution width. If the width varies with latitude or time, our calculated gradients of mode radius would be different. 相似文献
10.
The concept of structure–soil–structure dynamic interaction was introduced, and the research methods were discussed. Based on several documents, a systematic summary of the history and status of the structure–soil–structure dynamic interaction research that considers adjacent structures was proposed as a reference for researchers. This study is in the initial stage, given its complexity and excessive simplification of the model for soil and structures, and should be carried forward for its significance. An attempt was made to summarize the common major computer programs in this area of study. Furthermore, the advantages, disadvantages, and applicability of such programs were discussed. The existing problems and the future research trend in this field were also examined. 相似文献
11.
Ofra Klein-BenDavid D. Graham Pearson Geoff M. Nowell Chris Ottley John C.R. McNeill Pierre Cartigny 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(1-2):123-133
Sub-micrometer inclusions in diamonds carry high-density fluids (HDF) from which the host diamonds have precipitated. The chemistry of these fluids is our best opportunity of characterizing the diamond-forming environment. The trace element patterns of diamond fluids vary within a limited range and are similar to those of carbonatitic/kimberlitic melts that originate from beneath the lithospheric mantle. A convecting mantle origin for the fluid is also implied by C isotopic compositions and by a preliminary Sr isotopic study (Akagi, T., Masuda, A., 1988. Isotopic and elemental evidence for a relationship between kimberlite and Zaire cubic diamonds. Nature 336, 665–667.). Nevertheless, the major element chemistry of HDFs is very different from that of kimberlites and carbonatites, varying widely and being characterized by extreme K enrichment (up to ～ 39 wt.% on a water and carbonate free basis) and high volatile contents. The broad spectrum of major element compositions in diamond-forming fluids has been related to fluid–rock interaction and to immiscibility processes.Elemental signatures can be easily modified by a variety of mantle processes whereas radiogenic isotopes give a clear fingerprint of the time-integrated evolution of the fluid source region. Here we present the results of the first multi radiogenic-isotope (Sr, Nd, Pb) and trace element study on fluid-rich diamonds, implemented using a newly developed off-line laser sampling technique. The data are combined with N and C isotope analysis of the diamond matrix to better understand the possible sources of fluid involved in the formation of these diamonds. Sr isotope ratios vary significantly within single diamonds. The highly varied but unsupported Sr isotope ratios cannot be explained by immiscibility processes or fluid-mineral elemental fractionations occurring at the time of diamond growth. Our results demonstrate the clear involvement of a mixed fluid, with one component originating from ancient incompatible element-enriched parts of the lithospheric mantle while the trigger for releasing this fluid source was probably carbonatitic/kimberlitic melts derived from greater depths. We suggest that phlogopite mica was an integral part of the enriched lithospheric fluid source and that breakdown of this mica releases K and radiogenic Sr into a fluid phase. The resulting fluids operate as a major metasomatic agent in the sub-continental lithospheric mantle as reflected by the isotopic composition and trace element patterns of G10 garnets. 相似文献
12.
Full waveform inversion algorithms are widely used in the construction of subsurface velocity models. In the following study, we propose a Laplace–Fourier-domain waveform inversion algorithm that uses both Laplace-domain and Fourier-domain wavefields to achieve the reconstruction of subsurface velocity models. Although research on the Laplace–Fourier-domain waveform inversion has been published recently that study is limited to fluid media. Because the geophysical targets of marine seismic exploration are usually located within solid media, waveform inversion that is approximated to acoustic media is limited to the treatment of properly identified submarine geophysical features. In this study, we propose a full waveform inversion algorithm for isotropic fluid–solid media with irregular submarine topography comparable to a real marine environment. From the fluid–solid system, we obtained P and S wave velocity models from the pressure data alone. We also suggested strategies for choosing complex frequency bands constructed of frequencies and Laplace coefficients to improve the resolution of the restored velocity structures. For verification, we applied our Laplace–Fourier-domain waveform inversion for fluid–solid media to synthetic data that were reconstructed for fluid–solid media. Through this inversion test, we successfully restored reasonable velocity structures. Furthermore, we successfully extended our algorithm to a field data set. 相似文献
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14.
Concerns about the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus have motivated many discussions regarding new approaches for managing water, energy and food resources. Despite the progress in recent years, there remain many challenges in scientific research on the WEF nexus, while implementation as a management tool is just beginning. The scientific challenges are primarily related to data, information and knowledge gaps in our understanding of the WEF inter-linkages. Our ability to untangle the WEF nexus is also limited by the lack of systematic tools that could address all the trade-offs involved in the nexus. Future research needs to strengthen the pool of information. It is also important to develop integrated software platforms and tools for systematic analysis of the WEF nexus. The experience made in integrated water resources management in the hydrological community, especially in the framework of Panta Rhei, is particularly well suited to take a lead in these advances. 相似文献
15.
A statistical study of magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling in the Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry global MHD model
B. Zhang W. Lotko M.J. Wiltberger O.J. Brambles P.A. Damiano 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(5-6):686-702
The statistics of magnetosphere–ionosphere (MI) coupling derived from a two-month long run of the Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry (LFM) global simulation model are investigated. MI coupling characteristics such as polar cap potential and field-aligned current (FAC), downward Poynting flux and vorticity of ionospheric convection are compared with observed statistical averages and with results from the Weimer 05 empirical model. The comparisons for eight different IMF clock-angle orientations show that the LFM model produces reasonably accurate average distributions of the Region I and Region II currents. Both current systems have average amplitudes similar to those observed by the Iridium satellite constellation; however, the average LFM amplitudes are smaller by a factor of two compared with the values from the Weimer 05 model. The comparisons of polar cap potential show that the LFM model produces reasonable patterns of ionospheric convection, but the average cross polar cap potential (CPCP) is greater than the observed results by a factor of approximately 2 and greater than Weimer 05 by a factor of 1.5. The differences in convection in LFM results relative to the Weimer 05 model accounts for much of the difference in the Poynting flux patterns and integrated power produced by the two models. The comparisons of average ionospheric field-aligned vorticity show good agreement on the dayside; however, the LFM model gives higher nightside vorticity which may imply that the ionospheric conductance on the nightside is too small in the simulation. 相似文献
16.
Aurélie Muller Jean-Noël Bacro Michel Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(1):33-46
Depth–duration–frequency curves estimate the rainfall intensity patterns for various return periods and rainfall durations.
An empirical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution is presented for hourly maximum rainfall, and improved
by the inclusion of daily maximum rainfall, through the extremal indexes of 24 hourly and daily rainfall data. The model is
then divided into two sub-models for the short and long rainfall durations. Three likelihood formulations are proposed to
model and compare independence or dependence hypotheses between the different durations. Dependence is modelled using the
bivariate extreme logistic distribution. The results are calculated in a Bayesian framework with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo
algorithm. The application to a data series from Marseille shows an improvement of the hourly estimations thanks to the combination
between hourly and daily data in the model. Moreover, results are significantly different with or without dependence hypotheses:
the dependence between 24 and 72 h durations is significant, and the quantile estimates are more severe in the dependence
case. 相似文献
17.
David Love Stefan Uhlenbrook Gerald Corzo-Perez Steve Twomlow Pieter van der Zaag 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):687-703
Abstract Two types of monthly water balance models at basin scale are used: PE models use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as their observed input data, whereas P models need only precipitation. Calibration proceeds by comparing model runoff and observed runoff. Calibration is entirely automatic with the exclusion of subjective elements. All models differ only by their actual evapotranspiration equations. PE models from previous papers are generalized essentially by replacing the constant evapotranspiration parameter by a periodic one, thus increasing the number of parameters by two (a “parameter” is an unknown constant to be estimated, and which is a characteristic of the river basin to be described). P models use a periodic “driving force”, which is intended to represent periodicity of hydrological phenomena, normally originating in the (unavailable) PET time series. These eight PE models and three P models are then applied to 55 river basins in 10 countries with widely diverging climates and soil conditions. A marked improvement of model performance in about one third of the basins is due to the introduction of the above mentioned periodic functions. Even when PET data are available it is sometimes useful to consider P models. P models scarcely perform less well than PE models. An engineer, wanting to try out as few models as possible on a given river basin, can restrict his attention to the optimization of two or three models. The paper is an extension of a long effort towards monthly water balance models, and is believed to give a solution in most circumstances. 相似文献
18.
Multivariate time series modeling approaches are known as useful tools for describing, simulating, and forecasting hydrologic variables as well as their changes over the time. These approaches also have temporal and cross-sectional spatial dependence in multiple measurements. Although the application of multivariate linear and nonlinear time series approaches such as vector autoregressive with eXogenous variables (VARX) and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) models are commonly used in financial and economic sciences, these approaches have not been extensively used in hydrology and water resources engineering. This study employed VARX and VARX–MGARCH approaches in modeling mean and conditional heteroscedasticity of daily rainfall and runoff records in the basin of Zarrineh Rood Dam, Iran. Bivariate diagonal VECH (DVECH) model, as a main type of MGARCH, shows how the conditional variance–covariance and conditional correlation structure vary over the time between residuals series of the fitted VARX. For this purpose, five model fits, which consider different combinations of twofold rainfall and runoff, including both upstream and downstream stations, have been investigated in the present study. The VARX model, with different orders, was applied to the daily rainfall–runoff process of the study area in each of these model fits. The Portmanteau test revealed the existence of conditional heteroscedasticity in the twofold residuals of fitted VARX models. Therefore, the VARX–DVECH model is proposed to capture the heteroscedasticity existing in the daily rainfall–runoff process. The bivariate DVECH model indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance–covariance matrix related to the twofold innovations of rainfall–runoff processes. Furthermore, the evaluation criteria for the VARX–DVECH model revealed the improvement of VARX model performance. 相似文献
19.
ABSTRACTRecords of precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology, intensity–duration–frequency curves are typically estimated from observation records. However, conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do, duration-dependent area reduction factors are used, but precipitation is measured at only a few locations. Due to the high spatial variability of precipitation, it is relatively unlikely that a gauged observation network will capture the extremes that occur during a precipitation event. Therefore, the area reduction approach cannot be regarded as the reduction of an observed maximum. To investigate precipitation extremes, spatial aspects need to be considered using different approaches. Here, we both address the conventional practice of area reduction and consider a within-area chance of increased precipitation, defined as the maximum precipitation intensity observed in a cluster within a selected domain. The results show that (1) the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated in current design practice, and (2) traditional calculations underestimate extremes by as much as 30–50%. We show how they can be revised sensibly. 相似文献
20.
为实现对高密度、宽频带流动地震台阵地震检测能力的实时、不同深度评估,本研究采用"基于概率的完整性震级"(PMC)方法,以西昌流动地震台阵为例,对2013-01-13—2014-05-14期间平均的地震检测能力、不同震源深度检测能力,以及某一时刻的实时地震检测能力进行了评估.结果表明,PMC方法可识别地震观测资料处理中人为因素对地震检测能力的影响,不同震源深度下地震的检测能力存在差异,其中H=7.5km时,"网内"的完整性震级MP可达ML0.8,而在H=15.0km和25.0km时,"网内"的MP分别为ML1.0和ML1.4.在示例的2014-01-14时刻,非正常运行的台站造成地震检测能力的变化可被清晰识别出.此外,与MAXC和EMR等其它常用方法的对比表明,这些方法可能过高估计了地震台阵的检测能力. 相似文献