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1.
The past 15 years has been characterized by a high density of record-breaking weather extremes in Europe. These include the extratropical cyclones Lothar, Kyrill and Xynthia across western and mid Europe; the major floods in the UK, Germany and eastern Europe; the heat waves in 2003 and 2007 and, after a long period of mild winters, the heavy winter seasons in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Inspired by the rising trends in weather-related damages worldwide and the studies on the topic carried out in overseas, the EC funded the sister projects such as Weather Extremes-Assessing the Impacts on Transport and Hazards for European Regions (WEATHER), EWENT and ECCONET to determine the magnitude of current and future risks to the European transport sector and to assess suitable adaptation strategies. This paper presents the assessment framework of the WEATHER project and the results of weather-inflicted damage costs now and in 2040–2050. Total annual damages are found to be around €2.5 billion, which largely attribute to road traffic. However, broken down to passenger and ton kilometers the highest risk is borne by rail traffic due to its expensive infrastructures and its comparably complex operating structure. This indication even amplifies when looking four decades ahead: while average road transport costs will only raise by 7 % due to milder winters, rail traffic costs may increase by up to 80 % due to more floods and less predictable winter periods. A comparison with the results of the EWENT study uncovers a high range of uncertainty concerning methodological approaches and data treatment. Thus, the final figures might even be much higher. 相似文献
2.
Tibor Tiner 《GeoJournal》1994,32(4):369-371
In spite of the advantageous transport-geographic situation of Hungary, the four decades of the so called planned socialist economy, neglecting the transportational infrastructure, made the country lag behind the rest of Europe. The two main points in the current development of the Hungarian transportation system are the establishment of proper links with the more developed western European transportational network, and starting a substantial technical development in all respects of domestic transportation in order to approach the standards of the more developed countries. The paper reviews the main characteristics of the project of the Hungarian development of transport by road and rail. 相似文献
3.
Flood events have the highest damage costs and losses among natural hazards. There are different types of measures to mitigate flood damage costs and their negative consequences. Application of flood-control reservoirs or detention dams, as one of the main measures, may decrease devastating flood effects or even may cause to intensify flood damages in the watershed by a poor design with tremendous construction costs. Optimal design of a flood-control multi-reservoir system can simultaneously minimize investment costs of constructions and potential flood damage costs. This study proposes a simulation-based optimization approach to optimize the design of multi-reservoirs for flood control in the watershed by coupling the MIKE-11 hydrodynamic model and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization model. The present approach provides the Pareto optimal solutions between two conflict objectives of minimizing total investment costs and the expected flood damage costs in the watershed. Application of the proposed model for a small watershed in central part of Iran as a case study shows that optimal designs of multi-reservoir systems can efficiently reduce construction costs, flood peaks and their corresponding damage costs at the downstream reaches of the basin. 相似文献
4.
Four cases are studied in this assessment of how the harsh 2010 winter weather affected rail freight operations in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Poland and also of the reactive behaviour rail managers mobilised to reduce the adverse outcomes. The results are utilised in a fifth case assessing the proportion of freight train delays in Finland during 2008–2010 by modelling the odds for freight train delays as a function of changes in met-states on the Finnish network and weather-induced infrastructure damage. The results show that rail operators were totally unprepared to deal with the powerful and cascading effects of three harsh weather elements—long spells of low temperatures, heavy snowfalls and strong winds—which affected them concurrently and shut down large swathes of European rail infrastructure and train operations. Rail traffic disruptions spread to downstream and upstream segments of logistics channels, causing shippers and logistics operators to move freight away from rail to road transfer. As a result, railways lost market share for high-value container cargo, revenues and long-term business prospects for international freight movement. Analyses of measures employed to mitigate the immediate damage show that managers improvised their ways of handling crises rather than drew on a priori contingency, i.e. fight-back programmes and crisis management skills. Modelling the co-variation between extreme weather and freight train delays in Finland during 2008–2010 revealed that 60 % of late arrivals were related to winter weather. Furthermore, the combined effect of temperatures below ?7 °C and 10–20 cm changes in snow depth coverage from 1 month to the next explained 62 % of the variation in log odds for freight train delays. Also, it has been shown that changes in the number of days with 10–20 cm snow depth coverage explained 66 % of the variation in late train arrivals, contributing to 626 min or 10.5 additional hours’ delay. Changes in the number of days with snowfalls over 5 mm accounted for 77 % variation in late train arrivals, implying that each additional day with this snowfall could contribute to 19.5 h’ delay. Finally, the combination of increased mean number of days with 5 mm snowfall and temperature below ?20 °C explained 79 % of the variation in late arrivals, contributing to 193 min or 3.25 h’ delay. All results were significant (p = 0.00). 相似文献
5.
Landslide impacts on infrastructure and society in the Federal Republic of Germany are associated with damage costs of about US$300 million on annual average. Despite the large overall losses due to widespread landslide activity, there is a lack of historical impact assessments, not just for Germany’s low mountain areas but those of entire Central Europe as well. This paper is a collection of three case studies from Germany that seek a better understanding of landslide impacts and their economic relevance at local and regional level. The first case study investigates damage types and mitigation measures at a representative landslide site in ways that support to gain insight into historical hazard interactions with land use practices. This case history is followed by a case study dealing with fiscal cost impacts of landslide damages for an example city and the highway system of the Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany. In addition to a cost-burden analysis for affected public budgets, an overview of the principles of disaster financing in landslide practice is given. The third case study is focused on the conflicts of urban development in hazard areas, with an economic approach to balancing safety and public welfare interests. Each case study is based on historical data sets extracted from Germany’s national landslide database. This paper presents three different case studies that in combination are a first step towards assessing landslide impacts in integrated perspective. 相似文献
6.
Until recently, research on potential economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on transport infrastructure was scarce, but currently this area is rapidly expanding. Indeed, there is a growing international interest, including the European area, regarding the impacts of extreme weather and climate change on the management of various transportation modes. This paper reviews briefly the present status regarding the knowledge of financial aspects of extreme weather impacts on transportation, using recent research findings from Europe, and proposes some new views in cost-benefit analysis, project appraisal and asset value protection for the management of transport systems under extreme weather risks. Quite often, risk management is understood as a response to truly extreme impacts, but this constitutes a misunderstanding. Some values are more extreme than others, and in the context of extreme weather, some weather phenomena are more extreme in their intensity and resulting impacts. An analysis of the level of costs and risks to societies, as a result of extreme weather, reveals that the risks in different European Union member states deviate substantially from each other. Also, the preparedness of different societies to deal with extreme weather events is quite variable. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which has to be dealt with in project appraisal. Although a fully established procedure does not exist, some fundamental ideas of cost-benefit analysis under extreme weather scenarios are presented in this paper, considering accident costs, time costs and infrastructure-related costs (comprising physical damages to infrastructures and increased maintenance costs). Cost-benefit analysis is usually associated with capital investments, but the original idea of cost-benefit analysis is not restricted to investment appraisal. Therefore, activities such as enhanced maintenance, minor upgrades, adoption of new designs, improved information services and others may be subject to cost-benefit analysis. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which apparently has to be dealt with also in project appraisal. A fully established procedure does not exist, although some basic principles have been introduced in analytical format. There is a lack of models to estimate extreme weather impacts and consequences and how to adapt to those costs. Optimising the efforts in maintenance and new design standards is even further away, but constitutes an overwhelming task. In this respect, new approaches and ways of thinking in preserving asset’s residual value, return periods, sustainability and equity and formal methods supplementing cost-benefit analysis are put forward. The paper concludes with a call for the need for more integrated management of transport systems. In particular, it is recognised that the different stages of transport system planning pose their own challenges when assessing the costs and benefits of policy measures, strategies and operational decisions. 相似文献
7.
8.
British Rail was privatised by the Conservative government of 1992-1997. This privatisation was driven primarily by political ideology and there is little to suggest the policy was implemented as part of an integrated transport strategy designed to encourage modal shift from road to rail. Since privatisation, however, passenger numbers and freight shipments have risen in absolute and relative terms and the current Labour administration has stated that its transport strategy offers the potential for a ‘railway renaissance’. In this paper, we question whether, four years on from the publication of the new strategy, such a renaissance--that is, a 50% increase in passenger kilometres and an 80% increase in freight kilometres by 2010, along with a degree of modal shift to rail from car and lorry--can be achieved given recent developments both within the rail industry and in government transport policy. 相似文献
9.
文章以都汶公路为例,利用遥感解译技术快速获取地震诱发山地灾害类型及其对公路造成的严重损害类型,利用GPS对公路损毁灾害点准确定位,获得路基路面直接震害类型信息,同时对山地灾害遥感判识结果进行检验。通过分析认为公路沿线岩体岩性以及风化破碎程度的不同,对公路产生的损毁程度不相同;路基破坏程度与距离震中和断裂带的远近有密切关系;路基下方护坡的破坏与所处边坡的坡度有关;崩塌滑坡产生大量松散固体物质,雨季到来之后,极易暴发大规模泥石流,需要注意并防范泥石流对行车安全和道路交通的影响。 相似文献
10.
Severe weather affecting European transport systems: the identification,classification and frequencies of events 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Andrea Vajda Heikki Tuomenvirta Ilkka Juga Pertti Nurmi Pauli Jokinen Jenni Rauhala 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(1):169-188
Severe weather can have serious repercussions in the transport sector as a whole by increasing the number of accidents, injuries and other damage, as well as leading to highly increased travel times. This study, a component of the EU FP7 Project EWENT, delineates a Europe-wide climatology of adverse and extreme weather events that can be expected to affect the transport network. We first define and classify the relevant severe weather events by investigating the effects of hazardous conditions on different transportation modes and the infrastructure. Consideration is given to individual phenomena such as snowfall, heavy precipitation, heat waves, cold spells, wind gusts; a combined phenomenon, the blizzard, is also considered. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the E-OBS dataset (1971–2000) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1989–2010). Northern Europe and the Alpine region are the areas most impacted by winter extremes, such as snowfall, cold spells and winter storms, the frequency of heavy snowfall. The frequency of hot days is highest in Southern Europe. Severe winds and blizzards are the most common over the Atlantic and along its shores. Although heavy rainfall may affect the whole continent on an annual basis, extreme precipitation events are relative sparse, affecting particularly the Alps and the Atlantic coastline. A European regionalization covering similar impacts on the transport network is performed. 相似文献
11.
The diverse causes and styles, the frequency and the losses arising from five Australian floods in 1998 are reviewed in this paper. Though mostly rare, the floods were not as unprecedented as commonly supposed. Damages to agriculture and infrastructure were significant, and probably over 10,000 houses experienced over-floor inundation. Key lessons include: the need for detailed damage assessments as a basis for damage reduction, the need to maximise safety and minimise property exposure at caravan parks, and the need for floodplain management strategies that better address both existing and future risk. A greater recognition of the distinctive nature of each flood event is required for the improvement of official and unofficial flood warning systems. Educators need to address the dynamic nature of flood awareness, as it declines over time, and as it varies from one individual to the next. Insurers need to adopt incentives for risk-reducing behaviour, so that efforts to mitigate damages are encouraged, not undermined. 相似文献
12.
Désirée Hilbring Tanja Titzschkau Alfons Buchmann Gottfried Bonn Friedemann Wenzel Eberhard Hohnecker 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(3):1795-1825
This paper analyzes the potential of earthquake early-warning systems for transport lines. The interdisciplinary work focuses on rapidly producing an alert map during an ongoing earthquake as well as providing a damage map immediately after the strong-motion phase that visualizes potential damages to the railway infrastructure. In order to meet these application requirements, a service-oriented architecture based on geospatial standards is specified. This ensures the portability of the system architecture to different geographic regions as well as a potential transfer to other natural disasters and infrastructure systems. The first part of the paper describes the standard-based services of the system architecture together with design principles that are useful for the realization of early-warning systems. In the second part of the paper, an online demonstrator for the exemplary test area in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg, Germany, is presented. The system architecture of the demonstrator includes an earthquake early-warning methodology based on artificial neural networks and an infrastructure-specific damage assessment. The third part of the paper analyzes the potential of implementing low-cost sensors in the track, which would provide a dense network directly at the railway infrastructure. 相似文献
13.
R. Helle 《GeoJournal》1977,1(3):55-60
Conclusions Transport via the Siberian railway in trade between West Europe and Japan is clearly advantageous compared with sea transport. Whether the Siberian transport route is productive for the Soviet Union measured by Western standards is difficult to say. Some Western experts at least have expressed their doubts.It is known that some industrial western market-economy countries have been asked to invest in the construction of the Baikal-Amur railway in return for promised supplies of earth gas and oil. The development of the Siberian transit transport route may also be taken as a sign of an opening up of the Soviet Union to Western countries in a wider sense, and her growing interest in forming trade relations with the West.From the start the Siberian transit transport route was intended, in addition to the Soviet's own transport needs, for goods traffic between West Europe and Japan. Since then connections have been made with Hong Kong and the Philippines. In the future connections via Siberia may be made with Taiwan, South Korea and other East Asian countries and Australia. Thus the international significance of the Trans-Siberian railway in trade between the Far East and Europe will increase considerably. This will mean that the Soviet officials will be faced with what may prove a difficult decision concerning the growing demands of international transit traffic in relation to the increasing domestic transport on the same rail network.It seems likely that the Soviet Union will obtain an increasing proportion of the foreign exchange she needs from this growth in transport. In 1975 this sum was estimated at US $ 150.000.000. With the development in traffic the Soviets are also obtaining and developing new technological know-how. The biggest losers are the shipping lines belonging to the Far-Eastern Freight Conference. They are mainly from Western countries, but there are also members from Poland and East Germany who will lose freights to the Siberian transport route. 相似文献
14.
黄土洞穴对公路危害的地质模式及致灾机理 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
作为黄土地区一种重要的不良地质现象,黄土洞穴对各种工程都造成了不同程度的危害,其中以对公路的危害最为突出。黄土洞穴对公路路基、边坡、桥梁、隧道和排水设施都有不同程度的危害,而且这些危害在型式、主要危害的部位及危害的严重程度等方面都有一定规律。为了从根本上认识黄土洞穴对公路的危害的规律和机理,指导公路黄土洞穴稳定性评价和防治,本文在对陕西省和甘肃省公路黄土暗穴调查的基础上,根据黄土洞穴对公路工程不同部位的破坏特征总结出黄土洞穴对公路路基、边坡、桥梁、隧道和排水设施危害的地质模式和致灾机理。 相似文献
15.
K. Grewe 《GeoJournal》1979,3(1):27-34
In Brazil, new motor vehicles have to be conveyed by road truck even for distances as vast as 3,000 km or more, since the
railroad network is not efficient enough to handle them. However, the Brazilian government aims to extend the rail system
considerably as a means of uprating the country's infrastructure, relieving the load on urban areas and reducing diesel oil
consumption. VW do Brasil, as the largest industrial undertaking in the country, was requested by the Brazilian authorities
to submit a draft scheme for future utilization of the railroads following their expansion and modernization. A system of
13 destination railheads was thus conceived as an initial stage. In order to calculate alternative transportation costs a
special computer program was developed: with its aid movements of new vehicles from the factory to more than 800 dealers'
premises were optimized.
The implementation of this system would dispense with about two-thirds of the road trucks used to transport Volkswagen vehicles
within Brazil, and would thus relieve the roads of 71,600,000 truck kilometers per year.
In addition, the movement costs for new vehicles from VW do Brazil would drop by up to 20 %. However, it will not be possible
to implement this improvement within a short period, but only in stages concurrent with the long-term improvement of the Brazilian
railroads and, in particular, with the linking of the factory to the rail network.
In conjunction with similar studies conducted by other large industrial corporations in Brazil and details of the cost of
the projected railroad improvements and the system's running costs, it will be possible to produce a well-founded cost-benefit
analysis which may even be able to establish priorities for the individual routes. 相似文献
16.
Christopher P. Burgess Michael A. Taylor Tannecia Stephenson Arpita Mandal Leiska Powell 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):231-256
Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum. 相似文献
17.
The Commission on Geological Sciences for Environmental Planning (COGEOENVIRONMENT) of IUGS and UNESCO have initiated a joint
project to develop a worldwide data base on earth-science-related environmental problems and to assess which geoscientific
information is available locally for prevention, prediction or mitigation of such problems. As a first step, a pilot project
on geo-environmental problems and geo-information was launched for central and eastern Europe. In this paper the results of
a questionnaire sent to all these partly new countries are presented. Analysis of the results of the questionnaire shows that
the most serious and common geo-environmental problems in central and eastern Europe are earthquakes, landslides, soil contamination,
groundwater pollution and flooding by rivers. Other geo-environmental problems in this part of Europe and some difficulties
experienced during the pilot project are also referred to. Some suggestions for the application of geoscientific knowledge
to mitigate such problems are presented at the end of this paper.
Received: 25 February 1997 · Accepted: 28 January 1998 相似文献
18.
19.
Marco Donnini Elisabetta Napolitano Paola Salvati Francesca Ardizzone Francesco Bucci Federica Fiorucci Michele Santangelo Mauro Cardinali Fausto Guzzetti 《Landslides》2017,14(4):1521-1535
Despite abundant information on landslides, and on landslide hazard and risk, in Italy, little is known on the direct impact of event landslides on road networks and on the related economic costs. We investigated the physical and economic damage caused by two rainfall-induced landslide events in Central and Southern Italy, to obtain road restoration cost statistics. Using a GIS-based method, we exploited road maps and landslide event inventory maps to compute different metrics that quantify the impact of the landslide events on the natural landscape and on the road networks, by road type. The maps were used with cost data obtained from multiple sources, including local authorities, and specific legislation, to evaluate statistically the unit cost per metre of damaged road and the unit cost per square metre of damaging landslide, separately for main and secondary roads. The obtained unit costs showed large variations which we attribute to the different road types in the two study areas and to the different abundance of landslides. Our work confirms the long-standing conundrum of obtaining accurate landslide damage data and outlines the need for reliable, standardized methods to evaluate landslide damage and associated restoration costs that regional and local administrations can use rapidly in the aftermath of a landslide event. We conclude recommending that common standardized procedures to collect landslide cost data following each landslide event are established, in Italy and elsewhere. This will allow for more accurate and reliable evaluations of the economic costs of landslide events. 相似文献
20.
We discuss various strategies for parallelizing streamline simulators and present a single-phase shared memory implementation.
The choice of a shared memory programming model is motivated by its suitability for streamline simulation, as well as the
rapid advance of multicore processors, which are readily available at low-cost. We show that streamline-based methods are
easily parallelizable on shared memory architectures through their decomposition of the multidimensional transport equations
into a large set of independent 1D transport solves. We tested both a specialized explicit load balancing algorithm that optimizes
the streamline load distribution across threads to minimize the time that any of the threads are idle, and the dynamic load
balancing algorithms provided by OpenMP on the shared memory machines. Our results clearly indicate that built-in schedulers
are competitive with specialized load balancing strategies as long as the number of streamlines per thread is sufficiently
high, which is the case in field applications. The average workload per thread is nominally insensitive to workload variations
between individual streamlines, and any load balancing advantage offered by explicit strategies is not sufficient to overcome
associated computational and parallel overhead. In terms of the allocation of streamlines or streamline segments to threads,
we investigated both the distributed approach, in which threads are assigned streamline segments, and the owner approach,
in which threads own complete streamlines. We found that the owner approach is most suitable. The slight advantage that the
distributed approach has in terms of load balancing is not enough to compensate for the additional overheads. Moreover, the
owner approach allows straightforward re-use of existing sequential codes, which is not the case for the distributed approach
in case of implicit or adaptive implicit solution strategies. The tracing and mapping stages in streamline simulation have
low parallel efficiency. However, in real-field models, the computational burden of the streamline solves is significantly
heavier than that of the tracing and mapping stages, and therefore, the impact of these stages is limited. We tested the parallelization
on three shared memory systems: a 24 dual-core processor Sun SPARC server; an eight-way Sun Opteron server, representative
of the state-of-the-art shared memory systems in use in the industry; and the very recently released Sun Niagara II multicore
machine that has eight floating point compute units on the chip. We test a single-phase flow problem on three heterogeneous
reservoirs with varying well placements (this system gives the worst case scenario as the tracing and mapping costs are not
negligible compared to the transport costs). For the SPARC and Opteron system, we find parallel efficiencies ranging between
60 and 75 for the tracer flow problems. The sublinear speedup is mostly due to communication overheads in the tracing and
mapping stages. In applications with more complex physics, the relative contributions of these stages will decrease significantly,
and we predict the parallel performance to be nearly linear. On the Niagara II, we obtain almost perfect linear scalability
even for the single-phase flow problem thanks to the lowered communication costs on these architectures that have a shared
cache. This result is all the more satisfactory considering that future server designs will be akin to this system. 相似文献